Welcome Kenneth Murray LB, Oklahoma

[Steve]

Are you talking blitzing or pass rushing, since there is a pretty major difference between them. He is not much of a pass rusher, because he doesn't use his hands to shed blocks, doesn't seem to know how to set the edge and only barely knows how to dip and bend around the corner. When OU lined him up on the edge, he basically just tries to run past the OL, so while he was somewhat useful in that role, he is not likely to have much success against NFL OT. Any OL can deal with plain speed off the edge. typically the rookie pass rushers don't start to become productive if they don't have a complimentary move to a speed rush. Von Miller had a great edge rush and a speed to power move to bull rush anyone that opens up their stance to cover the edge too much. I haven't see a counter move from Miller, although I can't claim to have seen every OU game this year (many, but not all).

And there is no such thing as a pass rushing 43 LB. LB only a handful of LB have been used as pass rushers in the 43, and then generally they line up in place of a DE on passing downs. Again, the players who typically do that, are usually guys who either played DE in college, or were 34 OLB, who already know and use DE techniques to attack and shed blocks

As far as blitzing, he is a pretty effective blitzers. He if good at dogs and stunts, because he is just good attacking the line. At traditional pass rushing blitzes, he has decent timing, so that he disguises his lane until the blockers commit, leaving him free, or at least forcing the OL/RB/TE to recover in order to block him.

In any case, we don't really blitz all that often. Gus has traditionally never been a big blitzer, dating back to his time as an assistant in TB and Seattle. He has always worked under the Monte Kiffin disciples, and most of them would rather rush the base 4 and not blitz.

[ChargersPowderBlue]

Again, we only went to our nickel package last year once the injuries started to mount in the secondary. The 1st couple of games, we move Phillips to play SS and dime and Teamer came on at SS when Phillips went dime. We even did some dime with Watkins at SS and Teamer at dime LB. But mostly, the LB are the weak link against modern NFL offenses, so why even bother. Only a couple of teams (Ten, Baltimore) have the personnel to block our dime and still have an element of passing threat.

If we are going to spend a top pick (anything before 4th or 5th) we really need to upgrade the need positions. CB or DT, depending on how those positions pan out. Our DT are young so they got a pass this season, but they need to play better. This is their pass, but I can't see them getting too much more. If they show some progress maybe. Cb is pretty much the same story, and maybe they move King outside.

It's hard to cover with linebackers. You need guys who are a hybrid or who played at safety before. That's what we have Kyzir White for. Maybe the rookie 6th round pick from ND will play the role that Adrian Phillips played.

I've spoken my piece about CB and DT. They've been a big reason why the defense was bad last year.

[Panamamike]

It's hard to cover with linebackers. You need guys who are a hybrid or who played at safety before. That's what we have Kyzir White for. Maybe the rookie 6th round pick from ND will play the role that Adrian Phillips played.

I've spoken my piece about CB and DT. They've been a big reason why the defense was bad last year.

Hence why they signed Linval Joseph and Chris Harriss.

[blueman]

Bottom line, we’ve all been watching so-so LBs NOT make tackles, very glad to have spent the draft capital and moved up to draft an ELITE LB who hopefully WILL make those tackles.

[21&500]

A note on tackling:

I have made it abundantly clear through the years that I have a disdain for posters who lament "fundamental" tackling in the NFL. This opinion lacks an understanding of the physics of the game. 190lb DBs don't "wrap up" 230 lb RBs. Not if they want to keep playing. Additionally, the idea of "breaking down" and "wrapping up" is increasingly being shown to be an ineffective tackling technique all the way down to the HS level. Many teams, including mine, still practice this technique...something most of us learned, but it is falling out of favor.

What is increasingly becoming the norm (no, not "Hawk" tackling which is largely a unicorn and doesn't work anyway) is to simply go a million miles an hour and blow through the FRONT hip of the runner. The idea being you have more teammates behind the runners hip than you do in front, and with the increased speed and athleticism of the players, breaking down and wrapping up simply leads to MORE missed tackles, not less. So teams (I don't know about OK, but that's how they look when they defend) tell their players to take an angle, fly to the ball, and go through the front/far hip of the runner at full speed.

Now, I know that this will stir passions and ire because when we played coach did Oklahoma drills and Miami drills and boy did we tackle, full live practices, tough as nails, push ups into piles of fire ants....dear God we were so tough

However, no one tackles full speed outside the game anymore. Maybe one or two sessions in the summer. It's not done, nor is it wise. Thud, wrap up??? Sure. Live practice? lol, uh no. So tackling has evolved. And believe it or not, it's better. Christ, watch an old game. Guys "break down and wrap up" and fall off runners ALL. THE. TIME. It's as if the ball carriers are fucking studs and tackling them is difficult regardless of technique.

So Murray. Yes, he tackles high and arm tackles. But look at it this way: Would you rather he miss three tackles and make twelve having arrived at fifteen opportunities OR make nine of the nine tackles his slow ass lumbered to? His speed and ferocity gets him to more tackle OPPORTUNITIES than the average player, so even if he misses some tackles 1) he's there in the first place and more importantly 2) he has disrupted the runner enough to buy time for teammates.

i'm convinced.
makes me feel a lot better about his "tackling" issue
I expect a few frustrating missed tackles on occasion, maybe a few flags, but the trade off will be all the disruption along the way, other guys will benefit from it.

[pacstud]

You have to infer some of that because there is no consistent source of all 22 footage for college.

The dead giveaway is that when he is doing the box technique (covering the flat and sort of half spying), he is not out of frame for more than a split second most of the time. If he was taking a correct zone drop, he should be getting depth. With his speed, there is no way he should be able to close that fast with the flat. However, when you watch OU football, the CB or S is rarely the force player on the swing passes, they are running deeper with the WR or TE. Murray lead all of FBS tacklers with 22 stops behind the line on passes. Every once in a while, if you watch the OU games, they either do an endzone shot looking from the offensive backfield or they do an all 22 look. Once you pick up what they are doing, you can see it more often.

I think that's more a byproduct of their 33 (317) scheme

Murray is dropping to what is known as a box. It isn't a new technique, but it is the kinda thing that some D used 34 OLB for, so they didn't have to run with guys they had no chance of stopping. Only instead of dropping from the 7 or 9 alignment (outside of the OT or TE) Murray reads the RB, gives himself just enough depth to get an angle on the RB, then he keeps an eye on both the RB and QB. If he was taking a traditional zone drop, he would be 10-15 yards deeper. OU didn't invent this, they may not even be the team who brought it to FBS, but I see them doing it a lot. I watch way too much OU football. TTU is just not much of a football school, and I find the Hal Mum spread offense that Lincoln Riley runs more interesting than the over simplified thing that Clemson runs.

I agree, but I think a lot of times he just had back out, so as soon as the back left he went...and quite quickly

Better to be one step slower, and make the tackle, than a couple steps faster and miss it. Like John Wooden (UCLA backetball) used to tell his players taking shots, "... be quick but don't hurry ...".

See this is where defenses are disagreeing. They want you fast as possible, period. As I noted elsewhere, better to miss three tackles and make twelve, than just make nine out of nine.

[Steve]

I think that's more a byproduct of their 33 (317) scheme I agree, but I think a lot of times he just had back out, so as soon as the back left he went...and quite quickly
See this is where defenses are disagreeing. They want you fast as possible, period. As I noted elsewhere, better to miss three tackles and make twelve, than just make nine out of nine.

No this is where some football people are just plain stupid. Big plays allowed go along with the missed tackles. When defensive players give up those missed tackles the offense is getting a free chunk play (not all but many). Big plays given up are difficult, if not impossible to overcome. We no longer have an offense that can make up for those kinds of mistakes, so being fundamentally sound is the key.

Let's ask Jatavis Brown how his career has gone with the missed tackles. If Murray doesn't improve his tackling, he won't be playing in the NFL very long. He has to get better at it.

[Formula 21]

Sports

Why the Chargers were excited to trade up to draft linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr.

Jeff Miller
LA TimesApril 26, 2020, 4:23 PM PDT Former Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. is hoping to make his presence felt for the Chargers this season. (Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)
He is so athletically gifted that he finished among the top six at his position in four of the six drills at the NFL combine, the totality of his “measurables” almost immeasurable.

When Kenneth Murray Jr. formally met with the Chargers in February in Indianapolis, general manager Tom Telesco said, “You could just feel his presence.”

Given that dominant physical prowess, it is hardly surprising that Murray considers his intelligence to be one of his overlooked qualities, this linebacker who said he would study film up to six hours a day while at Oklahoma.

Murray is so committed to preparation, in fact, that he even practiced how he would react upon being drafted.

“I used to do it all the time with my siblings, all the time with my family, with my girlfriend,” Murray explained. “Every time we watch the draft, I’m like, ‘Yo, this is what it’s going to be like when I get up there. I’m going to hold the jersey up like this.’ ”

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Murray didn’t have the opportunity to raise a Chargers jersey when they selected him Thursday in the first round, at No. 23 overall.

That still didn’t diminish the significance of the moment for the team (the Chargers believe in Murray enough that they traded their second- and third-round picks to move up to get him) or the player (Murray admitted he cried).

He is an addition who, while initially arriving in the shadow of quarterback Justin Herbert, the Chargers’ pick at No. 6 overall, could eventually have a similarly profound impact on the franchise’s direction.

“His tape is pretty easy to watch to see how explosive (he is) and how much range he has,” Telesco said. “He’s one of those guys that, between scouting staff and coaching staff, boy, there was a 100% buy-in to add him to this football team.”

From the start of the Chargers’ first preseason group stretch, Murray is expected to compete for the starting weak-side linebacker job. He possesses the range and attitude to make tackles all over the field.

Murray brings the speed this team has sought in its attempt to keep up with offenses like the one in Kansas City, where the Chiefs blurred their way to the latest Super Bowl title.

“He’s really intense,” Chargers coach Anthony Lynn said. “At the [weak-side] position, you may have to run vertical a little bit more and cover a little bit more. It’s really good that he’s able to do that.”

The main questions about Murray center on his aggression, how he'll sometimes over-pursue, how, especially now in the NFL, he might need to add patience to his arsenal. Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. following a win over Army in September 2018. (Brett Deering / Getty Images)
He produced 17 tackles for loss last season, a year after he had 155 total tackles for the Sooners. In a game against Army in 2018, Murray finished with a typo-sounding 28 stops.

Telesco described Murray as having “a really violent mentality” before adding, “It’s almost like he’s built to play defense.” Lynn likened Murray’s style to that of “old-school linebackers.”

Growing up, Murray said his eyes were drawn to Ray Lewis, the Hall of Famer who spent 17 seasons with Baltimore. To this day, he prepares for games by watching highlights of Lewis.

Murray called football “a lifestyle” and cited his work ethic as one of his greatest strengths. The Chargers believe he could, over time, emerge as a leader.

“You’re getting a guy that’s extremely passionate about the game,” Murray said. “I’m a guy that loves to win, that is a winner, and a guy that loves to play great defense.”

He was born in Texas, Murray’s father a pastor and his mother a retired police officer. The couple has two biological children and adopted three others, each with special needs.

The environment, Murray has explained, was one that required him to mature quickly and assume responsibility. Those intangibles caught the Chargers’ attention, Lynn said.

Murray also has displayed an ability to excel under extreme pressure, never more so than last summer when, on the way home from church, he stopped and performed roadside CPR to help save the victim of an auto accident.

Murray attempted to leave the scene without drawing attention, the story becoming public only because a reporter from Oklahoma’s student newspaper happened to drive by and notice him.

Murray was one of the Chargers’ top targets before the draft began, Telesco formulating a scheme in case he had the opportunity to trade up under the right circumstances.

“[Tom] executed that plan to perfection, I thought,” Lynn said. “It was really cool.”

And now the Chargers have another defensive piece, perhaps a pivotal one as they attempt to rebound from a 5-11 finish while transitioning to a new quarterback for the first time since 2006.

Physically blessed and mentally dedicated, Murray has been readying for this exact moment.

“I’m going to come in and work extremely hard,” he said. “That’s just who I am. That’s where I make plays. That’s where I get it from — from my preparation.”

[Formula 21]

We never really had a discussion of ILBs here since nobody predicted we'd take one early. It turns out that NE may have taken one at 23 or NO at 24. So TT jumped up and got his guy at 23. He couldn't have waited any longer and still got the guy he wanted. So here's the top ILB comparison.

Saints Draft Debate: Should it be Patrick Queen or Kenneth Murray at #24?





The New Orleans Saints have had a solid offseason in free agency. The team has signed and re-signed important players that will play major roles in contending for a Super Bowl 55 ring. Now the team's attention has turned to the 2020 NFL Draft. The debate is raging at the linebacker position. Should they select LSU's Patrick Queen or Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray at #24? Or, neither?

The Saints have signed and re-signed free-agent of veterans and leaders in QB Drew Brees, WR Emmanuel Sanders, and S Malcolm Jenkins. GM Mickey Loomis and his staff have maneuvered deals for key role players like QB Taysom Hill (1st round tender), G Andrus Peat, DT David Onyemata, LB Kiko Alonso, CB Janoris Jenkins, and LS Zach Wood. Also, creatively re-signed defensive depth with CB Patrick Robinson, DB P.J. Williams, DE Noah Spence, S D.J. Swearinger, and DB Justin Hardee. The Saints have most of their important pieces ready and locked in place for 2020. With that being said, mysteriously the void left by starting LB A.J. Klein has not been addressed by New Orleans.


The Saints have 2019 All-Pro LB Demario Davis and LB Craig Robertson remaining on the roster as defensive veterans. However, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Kaden Elliss, and LB Kiko Alonso are all returning from season-ending injuries in 2019. New Orleans may still address the linebacker position with a veteran free-agent, but most likely the Saints may have their eyes focused on outstanding two linebackers in the 2020 NFL Draft. Those NFL Draft prospects are LB Patrick Queen (LSU) and LB Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma). They split experts' opinions ahead of the draft. Some have favored Queen's instincts, yet others have lobbied for Murray's speed and talent. We will review both players from notable draft experts and let the debate rage between Queen or Murray.




PATRICK QUEEN - LSU


Patrick Queen is a native of Ventress, LA. Queen was an offensive and defensive threat for his high school, Livonia High School. Queen led the defense of the FBS National Champions, LSU Tigers, in 2019. He completed last season with 86 tackles, 12 thrown for losses, 3 sacks, 3 passes defended, one fumble recovery, and one interception. Queen entered the NFL Draft after winning the Defensive MVP in the national championship win over Clemson as a Junior. He is the youngest player of the 2020 NFL Draft. NFL Scouting Combine Stats (Patrick Queen)

• Height: 6'0"
• Weight: 229 lbs
• 40 yd Dash: 4.5
• Bench Press: 18 reps
• Vertical Jump: 35.0 in
• Broad Jump: 125.0 in

Patrick Queen Analysis

Glen West on LB Patrick Queen - A breakout star down the stretch of the Tigers national championship run, Queen boasted his supreme athleticism and an uncanny ability to make plays in the backfield. In the three postseason wins over Georgia, Oklahoma and Clemson, Queen recorded 22 tackles, five tackles for a loss and 1.5 sacks, culminating in a Defensive Player of the Game in the championship. His best trait is his ability to cover tight ends and make plays sideline to sideline, whether it's in the backfield or over the middle. GLEN WEST, LSU Country on Sports Illustrated

• Sports Illustrated - #18 on the SI Top 100 Big Board
• NFL - Lance Zierlein wrote that Queen can be compared to former Carolina Panthers LB Thomas Davis. "His ability to diagnose and flow are both very rapid, and he operates with excellent body control and balance to gobble up runners as an open-field tackler."
• ESPN - Todd McShay wrote "Queen is a rangy, off-ball linebacker with burst and great tackling ability." Mel Kiper wrote "Queen is a run-and-hit middle linebacker who has some coverage skills, though he can still improve there. He'll be an instant starter as a rookie."
• Pro Football Focus - Michael Renner on Queen, "...A.J. Klein’s departure leaves a hole next to Demario Davis. Queen would be a vast improvement athletically, as the LSU linebacker ran a 4.5 at the Combine."
• CBS Sports - Dan Schnierer has the Browns drafting Queen in the Top-10. "Queen isn't often mocked in the top-10, but he should be. Queen can do it all as a three-down linebacker with blitzing capabilities who is best used as an off-ball LB."

KEITH MURRAY - UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA


Murray is a native of Missouri City, TX, a suburb of Houston. He was a star football player for the Elkins High School program before being recruited by the University of Oklahoma. Murray, like Queen, forwent his senior season and entered the NFL Draft. Last season, he accounted for 102 tackles, 17 thrown for loss, 4 sacks, and 4 passes defended. In Oklahoma's 63028 loss to LSU on 12/28/19, Murray had 7 total tackles. The combination of his size and speed is exceptional for a linebacker. Saints News Network's NFL Draft Expert, Mike Detillier, rates Murray slightly ahead of Queen as a better player.

NFL Scouting Combine Stats (Kenneth Murray)

• Height: 6'2"
• Weight: 241 lbs
• 40 yd Dash: 4.52
• Bench Press: 21 reps
• Vertical Jump: 38.0 in
• Broad Jump: 129.0 in

Kenneth Murray Analysis

• Sports Illustrated - Ranks at #20 on the SI Top 100 Big Board
• NFL - Lance Zierlein wrote on Murray "Sleek, playmaking linebacker with chiseled frame and long arms. Murray's game is predicated on speed with an ability to fly around from sideline to sideline rolling up tackles."
• ESPN - Todd McShay wrote, "Murray plays fast and could be the future quarterback of the New Orleans defense. He is one of the best available prospects on the board, and the Saints would jump at a chance to plop the rangy Murray in the middle of the field." Kiper wrote, "Murray is a chiseled specimen with great athleticism for his size. Murray can be a little stiff in coverage, but he has excellent diagnostic ability, and he flies to the football."
• Pro Football Focus - Michael Renner says, "Murray plays as if he were shot out of a cannon, evidenced by his 38-inch vertical and 10-foot-9 broad jump at 241 pounds."
• CBS Sports - Sideline-to-sideline speed and a tackling machine , one of the best athletes on the field, explosive to the ball."

Dec 28, 2019; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; LSU Tigers linebacker Patrick Queen (8) reacts during the second quarter of the 2019 Peach Bowl college football playoff semifinal game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports MIKE DETILLIER ON BOTH QUEEN AND MURRAY

I think a lot of both of them because both are complete LB’s. I don’t have to take either one of them off the field. Many LB’s today can play the run well, but can’t match up in coverage. Some LB’s are terrific rushing the Quarterback, but can’t drop in coverage or haven’t been asked to (in college).

It’s supply and demand.

I don’t have to take Murray or Queen off the field. Both are best being "heat-seeking missiles" on the field to the ball carrier. Both drop back well in coverage and match-up in the coverage part of the game. Both have been effective when asked to blitz off the edge or from the inside and play the run well.

Murray is a little more physical player and he’s been a 3-year starter at OU. Queen is a little quicker, a little faster, but he’s not as big or as physical as Kenneth. And, both are versatile and could play on the outside or inside.

There aren’t many guys who check off all those boxes as a linebacker.

1. 3-down player; 2. Versatile, can cover (passing plays); 3. Play the run well, very instinctive, quick flow to the ball; 4. Can blitz when asked; 5. Both have good leadership skills.

Queen reminds me a lot of Debo Jones (ATL.) when he came out of LSU. Murray reminds me of C.J. Mosley (Jets)when he came out of Alabama.

Mike Detillier for Saints News Network; Purchase Mike's NFL Draft Bible at www.mikedetillier.com.

Dec 7, 2019; Arlington, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kenneth Murray (9) reacts during the first quarter against the Baylor Bears in the 2019 Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports


Either Queen or Murray will be a great addition to complement Demario Davis in the Saints linebacker corps. My theory is that if any of the two players are still on the board at #24, New Orleans will be selecting a playmaking linebacker that will develop into an NFL star. In the 2015 NFL Draft, they failed with first-round selection of Stephone Anthony as their middle linebacker, but this year could be different. Queen is more instinctive and has the pass coverage ability. Murray has the speed, strength, and "prototypical" linebacker size to handle the position for many years. My guess the selection will be Queen if available. Murray will be just as solid of a pick if New England does not snag him ahead of New Orleans.

[beachcomber]

think eye prefer the Mosley/Ravens comparison over the Jones/Atlanta suggestion.... prefer the hitter in the middle of the field, or.... if he starts @WIL alongside Denzel.

[Formula 21]

Will Patriots Regret Passing On Kenneth Murray?

by Ricky Doyle on Fri, Apr 24, 2020 at 11:51AM


Kenneth Murray and the New England Patriots forever will be linked. Maybe it’ll wind up being inconsequential in the long run, but the Los Angeles Chargers selected Murray with the first-round 2020 NFL Draft pick (No. 23 overall) they acquired from the Patriots on Thursday night. So, the connection exists.

Now, it’s nearly impossible to fully assess the trade until we see how the Patriots use the second-round pick (No. 37) and third-round pick (No. 71) they obtained from the Chargers. And the deal actually makes sense for New England on its surface. But the reality is Bill Belichick passed on a player with plenty of upside — at an area of need, no less — which could make for interesting revisionist history down the road. Consider this: ESPN’s Seth Walder, a big analytics guy, wrote a piece earlier this month in which he identified the five most likely Pro Bowl-caliber players in the 2020 NFL Draft. Murray landed at No. 3, with a 69 percent chance of becoming Pro Bowl-caliber.

Here’s how Walder evaluated the Oklahoma linebacker, whom he compared to Stephone Anthony (formerly of the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints) from an athleticism standpoint:

Inside linebacker is another position that scouts are particularly successful at forecasting, the model believes. That was evident this time last year when Devin White and Devin Bush led this same exercise. That — along with a strong 4.52 40-time, which puts Murray in the 91 percentile, per MockDraftable.com — is why the model is so confident in him despite being Scouts Inc.’s 25th-ranked player.

His projection trailed White’s by just a hair. Given that Murray is expected to be a late first-rounder, the model will surely consider him the steal of this group.

Of course, you’re probably wondering where that 69 percent came from. We could give you the ol’ shrug emoji — numbers, man — but basically, according to Walder, it’s from a model that leans on Scouts Inc. grades (a qualitative assessment) and incorporates measurable/combine information while also factoring in position.

Murray entered the draft as arguably the best inside linebacker available, and New England was considered a potential fit, with linebackers Kyle Van Noy, Elandon Roberts and Jamie Collins all leaving in free agency. The Patriots didn’t feel compelled to pull the trigger and draft Murray, though, instead choosing to bridge the sizable gap that existed between their first pick (No. 23) and their second pick (No. 87) prior to Thursday’s trade. Ultimately, this could prove wise, especially if the Patriots use their newfound flexibility to address the quarterback position on Day 2 or even Day 3.

It’s still worth keeping Murray’s name in mind, though, just as it’s worth monitoring how fellow late-first-round linebackers Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech) and Patrick Queen (LSU) — selected 27th and 28th by the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens, respectively — fare at the next level.

For what it’s worth, Tom Brady will be happy to learn Iowa tackle Tristan Wirfs — selected 13th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — landed at No. 1 in Walder’s exercise, with a 79 percent chance of becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber player. Louisville tackle Mekhi Becton (75 percent) checked in at No. 2. Murray placed just ahead of Clemson defensive standout Isaiah Simmons (67 percent) and Ohio State star pass-rusher Chase Young (52 percent), who were selected by the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Redskins at No. 8 and No. 2 overall, respectively, in Round 1.

Read more at: https://nesn.com/2020/04/will-patrio...ction-says-so/

[Formula 21]

For us Simmons fans, its nice to see Murray right up there with him at the top of one prediction list for Pro Bowl caliber players.

Consider this: ESPN’s Seth Walder, a big analytics guy, wrote a piece earlier this month in which he identified the five most likely Pro Bowl-caliber players in the 2020 NFL Draft. Murray landed at No. 3, with a 69 percent chance of becoming Pro Bowl-caliber.

Iowa tackle Tristan Wirfs — selected 13th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — landed at No. 1 in Walder’s exercise, with a 79 percent chance of becoming a Pro Bowl-caliber player. Louisville tackle Mekhi Becton (75 percent) checked in at No. 2. Murray placed just ahead of Clemson defensive standout Isaiah Simmons (67 percent) and Ohio State star pass-rusher Chase Young (52 percent), who were selected by the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Redskins at No. 8 and No. 2 overall, respectively, in Round 1.

2020 NFL draft: Projecting the most likely Pro Bowl players in the class

Apr 11, 2020
Seth WalderESPN Analytics


There are no guarantees in the NFL draft. No surefire starters. No instant Hall of Famers. The reality is that there is is a range of outcomes for every prospect, even the best. Any prospect can become a rotational piece or a replacement-level player.

At the same time, teams are not throwing darts on their draft boards. It's more like they are rolling weighted dice. The trick is rolling the die with the most favorable weight and then hoping for the best. Our 2020 NFL draft projections depict that weight: it's a model that projects each prospect's chance to become a Pro Bowl-caliber player, a consistent starter, a bench or special-teams player, replacement-level player and nonfactor. Success is measured by Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value.

The most important factor in the model is a qualitative measurement: Scouts Inc. grades. In a way, it is largely a depiction of what a range of outcomes for those grades truly looks like. But it also incorporates measurable and combine information, which does add value to the projections. The useful events and measurements are not always where you think. We also use those measurables to provide athleticism comparisons to past prospects, as long as we have enough information (not the case with every prospect this year).

Position is important as well. What the model has found is that qualitative and athleticism assessments are more accurate for some positions than for others. The result is that while in general the model often matches consensus (prospects considered generally strong by Scouts Inc. are also broadly considered strong by our model), its specific forecasts include some surprises.