When Does Herbert Sit? - Justin Herbert Discussion

[dmac_bolt]

I don’t know when they start him, but i agree with those that don’t want to sit the entire year. If TT has the team at 6-1 till 10-3, i guess you have to keep rolling as its a win-now league. But they’ll be working on JH’s mechanics extensively and he won’t get to put that into live fire situations to understand what is taking, what still needs work, etc., and really learn to play consistently with new mechanics unless he plays in real games. He won’t get that experience in protected practice environments wearing a red vest and being off limits. Watching on the sideline and being “mentored” is overrated imo, especially by TT.

Week 6. There’s my guess. No later than game 10 is my recommendation unless they are leading the division. They should get him some game experience to prepare for 2021 and not just one mop-up game at the end of the year. He needs the work time.

[sonorajim]

Tyrod is the Bolts 2020 QB. I definitely expect better than 5-11. We should get 10 W's or better if we can stay reasonably healthy.
Turner, Bulaga, Harris & Joseph are major vet adds. Murray & Kelly will earn a lot of snaps. Reed & Gilman upgrade STs and Hill looks like a solid WR3 prospect. Then we get a healthy DJ, Tillery, Perryman, Adderley, Pouncey, Henry.
OL coach Campen and some offensive scheme changes should give us a solid product with a lot fewer than 2019's 4th most turnovers.

[Xenos]

Ideally, Herbert gets the Mahomes treatment his rookie season and doesn't start until the last game. Tyrod Taylor is a game manager like Smith who needs a good running game and good defense. I see how offensive explosion going down. Also not sure if anyone posted this in the Tyrod Taylor thread but he seems to have problems with passing to the middle of the field. Wonder if it's his height. But yeah, he's never been good at anticipation throws.
https://theathletic.com/1715489/2020...ilm-from-2016/

The Chargers are now, more than ever before, poised to start Tyrod Taylor in Week 1 of the 2020 season.

They made several key additions through free agency last month, but none of them play quarterback. They passed on Teddy Bridgewater and, depending on your perspective, either whiffed on Tom Brady or wisely decided against signing the six-time Super Bowl champion.

As the Chargers enter April, Taylor is the lone starting-caliber quarterback on their roster.

That likely will change in the coming weeks. The draft is still scheduled to take place at the end of the month, and the Chargers could very well spend the No. 6 overall pick on a rookie quarterback.

In a normal world, a rookie, if the Chargers opt to go in that direction, would have a pretty good chance of starting the opener. But we, of course, are not currently living in a normal world. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to worsen in the United States, and that creates a great deal of uncertainty for, among many much more important things, NFL teams.

Rookies need time on the practice field, and right now there’s no guarantee they will get any this spring and summer. Will teams be allowed to hold rookie minicamps? OTAs? Regular minicamp? Training camp? Preseason? Will the season itself be delayed? At this stage, no one really knows.

All of a sudden, familiarity has become even more essential on NFL rosters. And the Chargers certainly are familiar with Taylor. He spent two years with coach Anthony Lynn in Buffalo, and obviously now has had a full year with the Chargers’ coaching staff and players after signing a two-year contract last March.

There is one caveat here. Cam Newton remains a free agent, and I wouldn’t rule out the Chargers targeting him, especially if his market is so thin that his price tag drops considerably. But I still see this as a relative long shot.

Newton has a lengthy injury history. He had shoulder surgery after the 2018 season and foot surgery in December. And it is only growing more difficult for teams to conduct physicals as the pandemic spreads. For the Chargers, is it worth spending cap space on Newton if they can’t confirm, with their own doctors, that he’s fully healthy? Beyond that, and tying it back to my previous point about familiarity, how much value does he add if he can’t practice with the team all spring and summer?

The longer this crisis drags on, the likelier it is that Taylor is starting Week 1. There is even a scenario in which the Chargers forgo drafting a quarterback and put all their support behind Taylor as a bone fide starter and not just a bridge.

That’s unlikely. Either way, though, Taylor is the frontrunner. Which begs the question: What exactly are the Chargers getting in Taylor if, as I expect, he’s lining up under center when the 2020 season kicks off?

I figured 2016 was the best place to begin answering this question. Taylor started 15 games for the Bills that season, still the most of any year of his career. More importantly, he started 13 of those games with Lynn as his offensive coordinator and play-caller. Lynn had been promoted from running backs coach to OC in Week 3.

There was a lot to gather from the film, both in terms of what Taylor provides from a skillset perspective and how Lynn used him. Here are three major takeaways.


He has game-changing mobility.


This isn’t breaking news. But it’s something that jumped out to me on tape. And it can affect the game and the offense, both on designed plays and on plays that break down.

If Taylor is starting, Lynn and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen can implement a lot more quarterback movement in the pass game and the run game. Over the past three seasons, the Chargers were really limited in what they could install and call with Philip Rivers, a great pure passer but, especially later in his career, not the fleetest of foot.

With Taylor, the options are seemingly endless. Zone reads. Speed options. Run-pass options. Bootlegs. The list goes on and on. And Lynn showed a propensity for these types of concepts while calling plays in Buffalo.

On this play, Taylor gained 49 yards on a zone read when he read the edge of defender and saw him collapse on the back before tucking and running.







In the passing game, Taylor will allow Lynn and Steichen to significantly open up and add to the play-action part of the playbook. Mobility allows this. Here’s a good example, in which Taylor fakes a pitch play before switching directions and finding Sammy Watkins for a completion.







Just as importantly, Taylor is able to make plays with his feet off-script. This adds a different dynamic to the offense, something Rivers simply could not do.

Here’s a touchdown run from Week 3 of 2016, Lynn’s first game calling plays, where Taylor identifies man coverage and takes off on a scramble.







This is, far and away, the most exciting attribute Taylor offers.


He can make every throw, but his accuracy is inconsistent.

This is a perplexing aspect of Taylor’s game, and it happens on both intermediate and deep throws.

In that same Week 3 game against the Cardinals, Taylor made one of the better throws I saw out of him from the games I watched, delivering a dime to Robert Woods down the left sideline on 2nd and 20.







Later that season, in Week 13 against the Raiders, Taylor had Watkins wide open for a long gain — maybe even a TD — and overthrew him.







Here, in Week 3, Taylor overthrew Charles Clay down the seam.



Finally, in Week 16 against the Dolphins, Taylor fit this ball in perfectly to Watkins on an out route.





You can start to see the severe ups and downs.


He doesn’t see the middle of the field well.

This is probably the biggest knock against Taylor as a QB, and it’s definitely founded.

We can start with the raw numbers.

In 2016, 36 quarterbacks attempted 150 or more passes. Taylor, of course, was one of them.

Among those 36 quarterbacks, Taylor threw over the middle of the field at the lowest rate — 14.68 percent of his attempts, or 64 of his 436 attempts, according to data from SharpFootballStats.com. No other quarterback had less than 18 percent of his attempts come over the middle of the field. Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Ben Roesthlisberger and Joe Flacco all attempted more than 30 percent of their throws over the middle.

Taylor is relatively averse to throwing over the middle. The film backs this up. A lot of that revolves around Taylor being a generally cautious quarterback. It’s part of the reason why he has a career interception rate of just 1.5 percent. There are typically more defenders in the middle of the field, and avoiding that area is a safer strategy. But it’s also very challenging to be a successful passing team without using the middle of the field.

For reference, 26.73 percent of Rivers’ attempts in 2019 came over the middle. Keenan Allen largely operates out of the slot and is a weapon over the middle of the field. Hunter Henry is a mismatch down the seam. Taylor will have to grow more comfortable in this part of the field to maximize his playmakers’ talents.

Here are a few still shots of Taylor missing receivers over the middle. He didn’t attempt a pass to any of the receivers circled.







This, more than anything else, explains why Taylor hasn’t really ever carved out a full-time starting role at any of his stops.

Still, he brings a lot to the table.

And Lynn has already proven capable of winning games with Taylor as his quarterback. He went 7-6 as Taylor’s offensive coordinator.

Can he recreate that success in Los Angeles?

We shall see.

[Boltjolt]

Those days are long gone, you don’t draft a QB #6 and sit him all year. All but a handful of 1st round QBs have started wk 1 since 08. The few that didn’t start Wk1 ended up getting multiple starts there Rookie year.

Don't agree. It still happens, just not as often and if it benefits the rookie I don't see why they wouldn't, if they can. Mahomes sat the year he was drafted.

We'll see how long Herbert sits. Depends on Tyrods play and how fast Herbert responds to coaching.
But, Lynn said in that video I posted the best guy will play but I don't assume Herbert will better Tyrod right away.

Love will sit in Green Bay for maybe 3 years even if he wasn't picked top 10.

[Boltjolt]

Tyrod is the Bolts 2020 QB. I definitely expect better than 5-11. We should get 10 W's or better if we can stay reasonably healthy.
Turner, Bulaga, Harris & Joseph are major vet adds. Murray & Kelly will earn a lot of snaps. Reed & Gilman upgrade STs and Hill looks like a solid WR3 prospect. Then we get a healthy DJ, Tillery, Perryman, Adderley, Pouncey, Henry.
OL coach Campen and some offensive scheme changes should give us a solid product with a lot fewer than 2019's 4th most turnovers.

That's pretty optimistic.
I'm thinking maybe 8-8

[Panamamike]

Those days are long gone, you don’t draft a QB #6 and sit him all year. All but a handful of 1st round QBs have started wk 1 since 08. The few that didn’t start Wk1 ended up getting multiple starts there Rookie year.

You also don't have offseasons like this one. People comparing this seasons situation to any other is an error IMO. We shall see how things play out, but i am expecting a highly condensed offseason with many less reps.that is a big factor in why i think he sits and many rookies this year contribute much less than prior seasons.

[powderblueboy]

Since there might not be any fans at games (with or without the virus), they can be pretty patient with him this year.
And since they don't have a Drew Brees on the roster, i would expect him to start next year (with a spot start this year).
He does have 4 years of starting experience at U. of Oregon.

Right now, he's the number 3 qb on the roster.....yadah, yadah, yadah

[GoDucks2020]

If the OL sucks then no sense getting Herbert beat up and wrecking his confidence.

[AsaFLBoltfan]

If the OL sucks then no sense getting Herbert beat up and wrecking his confidence.

If Pouncey plays, with the addition of Turner and Bulaga the OL will be much improved

[BearWithJetpack]

I would rather he sits all year, but I expect something similar to Tyrod's time in Cleveland. Tyrod starts the season for the highly picked rookie, plays -okay- and then gets hurt, thrusting Herbert in before he is ready and then Tyrod moves on to his next destination.

[Boltgang74]

If Pouncey plays, with the addition of Turner and Bulaga the OL will be much improved

One side will be.Blindside is pretty important for a QB.

[AsaFLBoltfan]

You also don't have offseasons like this one. People comparing this seasons situation to any other is an error IMO. We shall see how things play out, but i am expecting a highly condensed offseason with many less reps.that is a big factor in why i think he sits and many rookies this year contribute much less than prior seasons.

Maybe the condensed Off season has an impact, but we’re talking about a kid who has played a lot and also is very intelligent. I’m not saying he has to or needs to start Day 1, but if he doesn’t get 6-8 starts this season. Be a waste in my opinion.