2022 Official Bolts Draft Superthread

[Formula 21]

I think comparing CB and RB is a mistake. One of those is a premium position and one of them is a dime a dozen. I won't be upset if the Bolts go CB early in the draft, if we take a RB I will be buying a new television after I throw something at mine.

The most fun I ever had with a computer was when I took my 17” Nokia CRT monitor and threw it off my 2nd floor deck. It hit the concrete below and exploded. Yeah baby.

[Steve]

Per OvertheCAp.com - the Chargers have 9.379m of cap space

So they are closer to 10m than a few million. And the Chargers have plenty of money to sign veterans in free agency as there are only 3 games left in the season plus there is nobody they would sign that cost very much for the remainder of the seasons

I understand how much Over the Cap says we have. That is NOT what I am talking about. We may have all that money in theory, but they NEVER use all of it. Go back and see how much the Chargers leave vs the cap every year.

Yes, we still have all of that space, but you were SURE back in MARCH that would be the case? Where would they be if they needed to sign someone after the first week of FA? What if the ideal OL had been available in the 1st week of June? What if just general injuries occur, and they needed to sign a vet to fill-in? They would count against the cap, and the team would be screwed and have to sign a rookie off the street. The trade deadline or before the season deadline trades would be out of the question.



Let's also remember that we are not in a position to backload contracts past 2024. Justin will be a FA after 2024 (although maybe we sign him to an extension prior to his 5th-year option). At that point, he is going to cost something like $50 million per year. So this idea of going out and signing people willy-nilly is just not going to happen. And we have Derwin James coming to the end of his rookie deal soon. and others.

If we are going to be giving contracts out to players going forward, a good many of them will be front-loaded, so that we still have space when it comes time to Herbert being a FA. We need to get money off the books in the FRONT of the contracts. BY frontloading them, we can keep the books open towards the back end, when Herbert (and others) will need paying.

TT needs to go out and encourage Herbert to date supermodels so the Chargers to try and get the Brady discount when the time comes.

[gzubeck]

I understand how much Over the Cap says we have. That is NOT what I am talking about. We may have all that money in theory, but they NEVER use all of it. Go back and see how much the Chargers leave vs the cap every year.

Yes, we still have all of that space, but you were SURE back in MARCH that would be the case? Where would they be if they needed to sign someone after the first week of FA? What if the ideal OL had been available in the 1st week of June? What if just general injuries occur, and they needed to sign a vet to fill-in? They would count against the cap, and the team would be screwed and have to sign a rookie off the street. The trade deadline or before the season deadline trades would be out of the question.



Let's also remember that we are not in a position to backload contracts past 2024. Justin will be a FA after 2024 (although maybe we sign him to an extension prior to his 5th-year option). At that point, he is going to cost something like $50 million per year. So this idea of going out and signing people willy-nilly is just not going to happen. And we have Derwin James coming to the end of his rookie deal soon. and others.

If we are going to be giving contracts out to players going forward, a good many of them will be front-loaded, so that we still have space when it comes time to Herbert being a FA. We need to get money off the books in the FRONT of the contracts. BY frontloading them, we can keep the books open towards the back end, when Herbert (and others) will need paying.

TT needs to go out and encourage Herbert to date supermodels so the Chargers to try and get the Brady discount when the time comes.

We get the Brady discount by negotiating a new contract after next season and not waiting until after year 4. Getting a nice improved payout a year earlier than 2 years later goes a long way towards creating a positive environment. Herbert's not stupid like some of these other QBs around the league. He realizes that it also takes quality players around him and that winning championships creates more endorsements.

:shifty:

[Steve]

The undervalued players are always good to keep your eye out for but the Chargers have a shitload of cap space. This nonsense they need to be bargain basement shoppers is what Spanos wants you to think so they can sign some player like Christian Kirk instead of talking to say Davante Adams.

If the Chargers release Bulaga, per OTC.com - they will have close to 84m of cap space. And yes, 25m of that will be taken up by signing their draft class and a bunch of guys to minimum deals to get to the 53 man roster. But that leaves the Chargers with say $55m of cap space

Kyzier White , Aboushi, Justin Jones, Nwosu, maybe Linval Joseph can all come back. Chris Harris - see ya later
I am letting Mike williams test the market as he is just not worth it

Derwin James - probably will want to work out a long term deal

But the Chargers can do exactly what the Patriots did. Target higher priced players like Judon, Henry and Jonnu Smith but also role players like Bourne and Godchaux if they so choose.

Enough nickel dimer shit. Go get Davante Adams or a difference maker at CB. The Chargers have the core group, they have draft capital - possibly getting another 4 round pick (Rayshawn Jenkins just needs to keep playing for the Jags) - so they can really upgrade the roster

To me it is not about bargain-basement shopping. It is trying to find players who do not feel like they have "made it". Too many FA feel like hot shit when they get their deal, and then they are not motivated like they used to be. Add in the new environment and inevitable entourage, it's a tough thing to deal with. So go for those other guys, the percentage of having them playing hard for the next contract is somewhat better. It is still a high-risk - low success rate thing.

As far as the positions I am thinking of are CB, S and edge rusher. Not necessarily in the FA, the draft is fine too, but those are must upgrade positions.

Mathieu - I may be beating a dead horse, but I think he is the ideal guy. First, he has always been pretty self-motivated. Second, his skill set brings a lot of the same things to the game as Derwin, and we need the depth, even if they have to split time in the base D (save some wear and tear on Derwin). He is still pretty fast. He is 30, so I don't think he is running the 4.4 he ran at his combine workouts, but he can run, and we need guys who can run vs KC. Lastly, he is still one of the best DB KC has, and there are not a lot of guys like him out there. So, he makes our coverage better and gives KC another hole on their roster to fill, who now has to be building their roster to stop Justin.

CB - might be a bit easier except for the speed thing. We need to be able to stop Hill, and while we have Davis (one of the fastest CB in football), we can all see how that goes. We just need as much speed as possible in the secondary. Fortunately, Samuels can play either outside or inside. Probably over half the CB prospects in the NFL/CFB are not athletic enough to be an outside CB. Samuels gives us a chance to go whichever way to get the best possible player. Ideally, we would find an outside CB who can run with Hill (that may be asking too much), but going for someone else in the Nickle or dime would be fine.

Edge rusher we may already have the guy in Rumph. He needs to develop. He is not an NFL-caliber player and he needs to get stronger. But I like the progress he has made so far. He is flashing some ability, but he needs to build up an NFL body. I am also really curious to see if Nwosu has finally stepped up (see last 3 games). I don't think he is ever going to be an elite rusher, but he could be a solid complimentary guy to Bosa and 3rd guy in the rotation with Rumph to let us move Bosa around more.

[Steve]

We get the Brady discount by negotiating a new contract after next season and not waiting until after year 4. Getting a nice improved payout a year earlier than 2 years later goes a long way towards creating a positive environment. Herbert's not stupid like some of these other QBs around the league. He realizes that it also takes quality players around him and that winning championships creates more endorsements.

:shifty:

******** for those who may not be aware, 1st year contracts cannot be renegotiated until after the 3rd season is complete. It is so players and agents can't get around the rookie wage scale.****************

None of the QB in the league are stupid. That is not the vice that comes into play here.

I get what you are saying, but after another year and being exposed to a franchise like the Chargers, and the front office and owners who tend to get in their own way, will Herbert be magnanimous about letting the Chargers keep half his salary for other players? There is a tendency for players to want to have some sort of a say in it, and teams aren't going to do that.

Let's remember Brady doing this for years with the Pats. Let's also remember he is not the breadwinner in the family, not even if he was the best-paid QB in football. He has still gotten a little hot under the collar about FA and there were occasional big jumps in his salary, before the final inevitable tiff with BB. Plus he already HAD championships under his belt, will Herbert have them, and give up money for something he is not even sure about.

Is Herbert even interested in the endorsement thing? Rivers wasn't. And Herbert gives off this distinct "I like hanging out with my friends and cooking (brisket) in the back yard" vibe that might not translate to a lot of corporate America (you guys who live in SoCal probably have a better idea of the potential of that based on what he is doing locally, I am honestly curious on what people think).

[Steve]

Mike Williams is a huge question mark.
He and his agent probably ask for $15 million. His inconsistency and injury history scare me away. I don't think he's worth it.
Having said that, the team is constructed around Justin Herbert and not giving him receiving options seems stupid.
After cutting Bulaga, the Chargers will have $87 million cap space. I say build a roster that can compete for a Super Bowl the next 2-3 years.
Most people don't agree with me, but I'd love to make a big splash in FA... and go get Davante Adams. We have the money.

I agree that I am not sold on Mike Williams at $15 mill + per season, at least not unless he can really step up over the last 3 games and show me that next step improvement.

However, it only takes 1 other team to feel like they have, and with the lack of quality FA, I think that may be the case. Teams have a lot of salary cap space and not many guys to spend it on. Remember Tyrell Williams. I think Mike Williams is somewhat better, but there was a lot less loose money to be spent that offseason, and the Raiders were desperate for WR help, so they pulled the trigger. Even though Williams was not a complete waste for them, he is still sitting at home, having been cut by LV after missing last year due to injury and playing sparingly for DET this year after a concussion.

here is a CBS article by a former agent who feels Mike Williams is worth $17 mill per as a FA.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-2021-contract-year-stock-watch-has-mike-williams-allen-robinson-on-opposite-ends-of-spectrum/

[Boltjolt]

We get the Brady discount by negotiating a new contract after next season and not waiting until after year 4. Getting a nice improved payout a year earlier than 2 years later goes a long way towards creating a positive environment. Herbert's not stupid like some of these other QBs around the league. He realizes that it also takes quality players around him and that winning championships creates more endorsements.

:shifty:

Ive yet to see an endorsement from Herbert. Meanwhile shit stain Baker Mayfield is all over with commercials.

[Steve]

I think Baker may need to have a little less drama in his life. Not that he has alienated the advertisers, but I think his act may be wearing thin with the Browns. He is only a good-ish QB, but you get more drama from him than any other QB in the league. And most of it is just this insane silliness.

[dmac_bolt]

They say it's takes about 3 years to see what a draft class is in the NFL.

Supposedly the Telesco philosophy is draft well, develop and resign your own. I'm was not seeing that philosophy show up as much as I'd like to see it, but maybe Telesco has turned the corner. I'm not sure.

2019 class is in it's 3rd season. Adderley, Tranquill, Tillery are starters. Pipkins may or may not develop. But how many will be resigned when it's time for Telesco to decide, assuming he still has the job.

2018 class is in it's 4th season. And it has some very good players that could be long term answers.
James-S will be resigned and kept for sure, but Nwousu-LB, White-LB, Jones-DT, even jitterbug Jackson-RB are all going to be UFA this off season. How many get re-signed?

The entire 2017 draft except Mike Williams was allowed to walk and I have a feeling Williams won't be resigned and that Palmer will take his place. So none of that draft was resigned if Mike walks.

Only Bosa was resigned from 2016 draft.

None of the 2015 remain and including the RB Gordon Telesco traded up for.

None of the 2014 we're resigned.

Only Allen was re-signed from 2013.

In his GM career over 1st 5 drafts, Telesco found Allen and Bosa that were resigned. And Williams maybe?

I don't know how many get resigned from his 2018 and 2019 over next couple off seasons.
But if it's only James and all the others walk as has happened in previous drafts, then his philosophy is all talk because the resume shows there is very little resigning of his own.

Henry-TE being an example of a solid versatile starting veteran with great hands who also showcased the ability to line up out wide, slot, hback. I don't think Henry got a can't match it deal.

Cook who replaced him has a resume with career catch percentage of 60%. With his best ever season being 66% and multiple percentages in the 50s.

Henry career is 69% with with his lowest being 64% and 3 season in the low 70s.

The little things help win games. And the eye test says Henry has much better hands and route running and blocking ability.
The stats show he catches nearly 10% higher clip than Cook.

Somehow I get the feeling if Henry was at TE, he helps beat the Cheifs by actually catching the TD pass than Cook struggled to make.

HH is better than Cook, I don’t know he would sign for what he signed at NE for. 66% and 69% are basically the same, HH stands out as a slightly better receiver who is also a hell of a blocker. More play options with him on the field. Also agree on the eye test. He’s a better football player

I wonder if Palmer is the answer to MDub or KA. KA dead cap ~$5M in 2023, ~$2M in 2024. We will know based on what they do with dub this off season. You’re probably right.

TT hasn’t earned an A grade. I don’t think he’s earned a solid B, i think he’s C+ maybe B- at best? His 9 years to build an OL is a D-
They need to sign Nwosu and Jones imo, key pieces of the front. Nwosu is finally coming on, it took him awhile to learn NFL. Jones’s our best IDL. Jackson is replaceable for free, White would be nice but not as critical imo,. Could be wrong.

[Bolt-O]

Ive yet to see an endorsement from Herbert. Meanwhile shit stain Baker Mayfield is all over with commercials.

He would be a natural fit with Nike with his Oregon ties, but he might not be controversial enough. I did see a video on his prep, and he said his goal was to get as much sleep as possilbe, and the video was sponsored by a bed company, I think sleep number.

[gzubeck]

He would be a natural fit with Nike with his Oregon ties, but he might not be controversial enough. I did see a video on his prep, and he said his goal was to get as much sleep as possilbe, and the video was sponsored by a bed company, I think sleep number.

You know he's arrived when he gets a State Farm and Nike endorsement!

:shifty:

[Bolt4Knob]

I understand how much Over the Cap says we have. That is NOT what I am talking about. We may have all that money in theory, but they NEVER use all of it. Go back and see how much the Chargers leave vs the cap every year.

Yes, we still have all of that space, but you were SURE back in MARCH that would be the case? Where would they be if they needed to sign someone after the first week of FA? What if the ideal OL had been available in the 1st week of June? What if just general injuries occur, and they needed to sign a vet to fill-in? They would count against the cap, and the team would be screwed and have to sign a rookie off the street. The trade deadline or before the season deadline trades would be out of the question.



Let's also remember that we are not in a position to backload contracts past 2024. Justin will be a FA after 2024 (although maybe we sign him to an extension prior to his 5th-year option). At that point, he is going to cost something like $50 million per year. So this idea of going out and signing people willy-nilly is just not going to happen. And we have Derwin James coming to the end of his rookie deal soon. and others.

If we are going to be giving contracts out to players going forward, a good many of them will be front-loaded, so that we still have space when it comes time to Herbert being a FA. We need to get money off the books in the FRONT of the contracts. BY frontloading them, we can keep the books open towards the back end, when Herbert (and others) will need paying.

TT needs to go out and encourage Herbert to date supermodels so the Chargers to try and get the Brady discount when the time comes.

The cap is very fluid and flexible. The history of the Chargers and the Spanii is too not do what say the Saints and Chiefs do. But the Chargers could do that and backload deals if they wanted. But if Dean is not flush with cap -= it can't happen

But if you are quitting on free agency already - the Spanos say thank you for allowing them to not spend their money because of "the future." All I know is Kansais City is kicking their ass in the present.

The Chargers have two more years of Herbert on a rookie deal - its time to spend the damn cash

Plus the cap will be going up in 2023 and 2024 - more than likely with a new TV deal.