And With The 5th Pick Of The NFL Draft Chargers Select....Discussion

[SuperChargedRodney37]

DeCosta rumored to value fifth year option from first round selections.... food for thought re: keeping 11 & 23, rather than trading the latter for two day two picks.... just sayin' ??

This is true about DeCosta, however, it could hinder the trade down argument. The 5th year option could be very expensive for the team's future contractual negotiations with said player.

For example: It they trade back and select Fuaga @ #11
His 5th year option will be fully guaranteed between $16 to $21 million depending on if he makes the Pro Bowl. (Half the league seemingly makes the Pro Bowl now).
If they take a WR @ #23 that number will be the same. $16 to $21 million fully guaranteed.

If they stick and pick @ #5 they will pay a max of $21 million if the player makes multiple Pro Bowls. (ex: Ja'Mar Chase this year was $21,816,000)

This number will likely increase based on positional salaries increasing by 2029.

So, based on this formula: Paying the WR1 is still value. Paying the WR2/3 and a RT is bad value.
By the way Rashawn Slater's 5th year option is $19,040,000 because he made 1 Pro Bowl. (Hense the bad value for the RT).

[SuperChargedRodney37]

doesn't sound like the Giants are gonna draft QB.... no trade up w/Az or us for that matter ??

Hello Beach,

I believe in this case, this is a possibility:

Here's an interesting thought to ponder? What if the Chargers have MHJ #1 and he's taken 4th. But they have a Similar grade on both Nabers & Odunze.
Would you consider trading back one spot with the Giants and getting their 2024 4th RD selection 107 & 2024 6th Rd selection 183?
You would still get your Elite WR at #6 and get some extra draft capital in the meat of this draft. That would give you 4th round picks 105/107/110.

Or

Would you trade with Tennessee allowing them to get Alt still getting your Elite WR but this trade looks like this.
You get 2024 4th Rd selection 106 and a 2025 3rd Round selection.
So again, more draft capital in the meat of this draft and a future 3rd round pick because the Titans don't current have a 2024 3rd.

Both these trades are within the margins of the trade chart and would get you extra capital without sacrificing the Elite Blue-Chip Player.

[eaterfan]

I agree the quick QB comparison is not compelling theater, at least its not to me.

But it sounds to me from the initiating tweet that a lot of bad TEs were picked. yeah, so? The mentioned data is strictly a TE vs TE comparison - assuming the outcome of future TE picks seems iffy, idunno - what does it mean - that Rd3, Rd4, Rd5 TEs will always be better than Rd1 TEs in future drafts?

that has no logical sense to it.

meh. its a trivia answer imo.

I think it means 2 things:

1. Scouts are bad at evaluating TE talent coming out of college. This makes the piston more of a crap shoot than any other position.

2. Coaches are bad at using talented TEs.

I don't think it's trivial. There's a pretty clear pattern giving back 20+ years. Maybe Bowers is the one who lives up to the hype, but TE it's betting on an outlier.

[Boltjolt]

I think it means 2 things:

1. Scouts are bad at evaluating TE talent coming out of college. This makes the piston more of a crap shoot than any other position.

2. Coaches are bad at using talented TEs.

I don't think it's trivial. There's a pretty clear pattern giving back 20+ years. Maybe Bowers is the one who lives up to the hype, but TE it's betting on an outlier.

Also that tweet is the truth as far as 1 of 9 first round TEs not getting second contracts with the team that drafted them.

However two first rounders from the same 2017 draft,.... Hockenson who was traded to Minnesota, got a big second contract and has been great for the Vikings and Evan Engram has been great in Jax after the Giants not resigning him.

They were good players, they just didn't use them to their strengths apparently.

Campbell just has a different type of TE in mind I guess. He wasn't bad in Detroit. His last two seasons there he had 61 and 67 receptions ...and he was traded during the season at the Nov deadline with 26 receptions then had 60 with Minnesota the rest of the way (86 total). And in Minnesota he has been more productive since.

Noah Fant the other first rounder TE that year wasn't bad in Denver either. He had a slow rookie year with 40 catches but had 62 and 68 receptions before moving on to Seattle with Pete Carroll and his run oriented offense and he has been less productive. Only had 43 targets last season.

Fant has resigned with the Seahawks. Not sure how their offense will change with Carroll gone.

[beachcomber]

Hello Beach,

I believe in this case, this is a possibility:

Here's an interesting thought to ponder? What if the Chargers have MHJ #1 and he's taken 4th. But they have a Similar grade on both Nabers & Odunze.
Would you consider trading back one spot with the Giants and getting their 2024 4th RD selection 107 & 2024 6th Rd selection 183?
You would still get your Elite WR at #6 and get some extra draft capital in the meat of this draft. That would give you 4th round picks 105/107/110.

Or

Would you trade with Tennessee allowing them to get Alt still getting your Elite WR but this trade looks like this.
You get 2024 4th Rd selection 106 and a 2025 3rd Round selection.
So again, more draft capital in the meat of this draft and a future 3rd round pick because the Titans don't current have a 2024 3rd.

Both these trades are within the margins of the trade chart and would get you extra capital without sacrificing the Elite Blue-Chip Player.

in those scenarios, would sit tight in both of 'em, coz would prefer to take my chances w/Odunze rather than Malik.... he's got too many variables by my take, 'specially @5 overall, and despite how incredible a wideout he might turn out as....

[Boltx]

The reason I'm not as invested in this year's draft is completely different than the reason I wasn't as invested in last year's draft...In 2022 I did a bunch of research and watched bunch tape on a large # of players, in 2023 I was soooo pissed about Staley being back that I mosty went MIA in the offseason although I was targeting the pass rushers where we were picking @21 based on what I thought other teams were going to do, Myles Murphy was my guy last year...this year, again I didn't do as much as I did in 2022 but this time because I'm really confident that Harbaugh is going to win, so the draft has lost some of it's luster this year, it just feels like another phase of the offseason and I think it's because I'm anticipating the actual season so much this year that it's taken some of the focus away from the draft...

Gotta enjoy/savor every bit of this process.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Gotta enjoy/savor every bit of this process.

We're about to discover a lot about who Hortiz and Harbaugh as team-builders.

That *is* exciting, unless you're overly scarred from seeing previous administrations monumentally botch this process up, which just makes you anxious.

[blueman]

We're about to discover a lot about who Hortiz and Harbaugh as team-builders.

That *is* exciting, unless you're overly scarred from seeing previous administrations monumentally botch this process up, which just makes you anxious.

Yup. And hey, if Alt is the pick at 5, rah-fucking-rah and go trenches! (I’m flexible lol)

[dmac_bolt]

Also that tweet is the truth as far as 1 of 9 first round TEs not getting second contracts with the team that drafted them.

However two first rounders from the same 2017 draft,.... Hockenson who was traded to Minnesota, got a big second contract and has been great for the Vikings and Evan Engram has been great in Jax after the Giants not resigning him.

They were good players, they just didn't use them to their strengths apparently.

Campbell just has a different type of TE in mind I guess. He wasn't bad in Detroit. His last two seasons there he had 61 and 67 receptions ...and he was traded during the season at the Nov deadline with 26 receptions then had 60 with Minnesota the rest of the way (86 total). And in Minnesota he has been more productive since.

Noah Fant the other first rounder TE that year wasn't bad in Denver either. He had a slow rookie year with 40 catches but had 62 and 68 receptions before moving on to Seattle with Pete Carroll and his run oriented offense and he has been less productive. Only had 43 targets last season.

Fant has resigned with the Seahawks. Not sure how their offense will change with Carroll gone.

well, well, well. Doesn't that teeny tiny missing detail flip the ENTIRE SCRIPT ON THIS ENTIRE FARCE OF A CHARADE!!! Misinformation, disinformation, malinformation ... each can decide exactly how they feel they have been deceived. I for one, will exit this experience with trust issues. i'd have been left to believe they were all just lined up in the gutter on skid row if you hadn't added that important tidbit. thank you, good sir.

I hate people that lie with math - math is honest, math is sacred, math is pure - alas, math is desecrated by evil human contortionists!

[Boltjolt]

well, well, well. Doesn't that teeny tiny missing detail flip the ENTIRE SCRIPT ON THIS ENTIRE FARCE OF A CHARADE!!! Misinformation, disinformation, malinformation ... each can decide exactly how they feel they have been deceived. I for one, will exit this experience with trust issues. i'd have been left to believe they were all just lined up in the gutter on skid row if you hadn't added that important tidbit. thank you, good sir.

I hate people that lie with math - math is honest, math is sacred, math is pure - alas, math is desecrated by evil human contortionists!

BTW,....Engram is 6'3", 240 lbs.Had some injury issues early with NYin years 2 and 3,...missed 8 games his third year but has been pretty healthy after year 3.

Missed three games last 4 seasons. Zero the last two while being more productive. Had 114 receptions last season.

[eaterfan]

Also that tweet is the truth as far as 1 of 9 first round TEs not getting second contracts with the team that drafted them.

However two first rounders from the same 2017 draft,.... Hockenson who was traded to Minnesota, got a big second contract and has been great for the Vikings and Evan Engram has been great in Jax after the Giants not resigning him.

They were good players, they just didn't use them to their strengths apparently.

Campbell just has a different type of TE in mind I guess. He wasn't bad in Detroit. His last two seasons there he had 61 and 67 receptions ...and he was traded during the season at the Nov deadline with 26 receptions then had 60 with Minnesota the rest of the way (86 total). And in Minnesota he has been more productive since.

Noah Fant the other first rounder TE that year wasn't bad in Denver either. He had a slow rookie year with 40 catches but had 62 and 68 receptions before moving on to Seattle with Pete Carroll and his run oriented offense and he has been less productive. Only had 43 targets last season.

Fant has resigned with the Seahawks. Not sure how their offense will change with Carroll gone.

Teams generally sign the good players they draft to second contacts. It doesn't happen every time, but just take the Chargers as an example... Who were the Chargers best draft picks in the Telesco era? Herbert, Allen, Bosa, James, Slater, Tui, Mike Williams. How many of them were signed to second contracts? How many will be? How about the best TEs of recent memory...Kelce, Gronk, Gates, Kittle, Andrews, Gonzales.

All I've heard from people advocating for Bowers is how much the Bolts will save on the second contract, yet no teams who pick first round TEs seem to want to take advantage of the amazing savings? That doesn't make sense unless the players just aren't even worth the Midwest contracts they are supposed to get.

You have to be a really crappy player (or criminal) to be a first round pick and not get a second contract. Tillery got one. D'Arnold got one.

[powderblueboy]

I guess nobody should ever draft QBs in the top 10 either

59 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 1990 — only four of those QBs went on to earn First Team All-Pro Honors.

• Peyton Manning (#1)
• Matt Ryan (#3)
• Cam Newton (#1)
• Patrick Mahomes (#10)

Herbert, Burrow, Allen, Stroud ..... just at the top of my head.

Give me your top 4 tight ends drafted in the first round, who never became All Pro, but still are really good and on par with those quarterbacks.