And With The 5th Pick Of The NFL Draft Chargers Select....Discussion

[CanadianBoltFan]

I don't profess to be a scout.

I'm merely documenting recent trends, and recent trends in drafting TEs are

1. The first TE drafted does not turn out to be the best TE of his class.

2. TEs who become elite NFL players are drafted, on average, in the 3rd round.

3. The most recent TE drafted in the top 5 is not even one of the 10 best TEs in the league after three seasons.

Bowers is an outlier. I have been trying to say he is not the typical TE. He is a weapon.

https://www.google.com/search?q=chargers+unleashed&sca_esv=0d8ea42cb5e21786&rlz=1C1SQJL_enCA793CA793&biw=1186&bih=509&tbm=vid&sxsrf=ACQVn0_2aF_-oZlUuJZT8Ad3HBp-vNeSDg%3A1707683327674&ei=_y3JZdzjKNii0PEPsrulGA&ved=0ahUKEwic34mRkKSEAxVYETQIHbJdCQM4FBDh1QMIDQ&uact=5&oq=chargers+unleashed&gs_lp=Eg1nd3Mtd2l6LXZpZGVvIhJjaGFyZ2VycyB1bmxlYXNoZWQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyCxAAGIAEGIoFGIYDMgsQABiABBiKBRiGAzILEAAYgAQYigUYhgMyCxAAGIAEGIoFGIYDMgsQABiABBiKBRiGA0ijMlAAWIMecAB4AJABAJgBYaAB5wqqAQIxOLgBA8gBAPgBAcICBBAjGCfCAgoQABiABBiKBRhDwgIQEAAYgAQYigUYQxixAxiDAcICDRAAGIAEGBQYhwIYsQPCAgsQABiABBixAxiDAcICCxAAGIAEGIoFGLEDwgIOEAAYgAQYigUYsQMYgwHCAggQABiABBixA8ICBhAAGBYYHsICCBAAGBYYHhgP&sclient=gws-wiz-video#vhid=GYoFSbeOdSnfZM&vssid=videos-b0d488be

[powderblueboy]

Look at the draft landscape.

1. Bears - they are going to draft a QB, probably Caleb Williams
2. Commanders - they are going to draft a QB, probably Drake Maye is my guess
3. Patriots - definitely they are going to draft a QB
4. Cardinals - don't need a QB
5. Chargers - don't need a QB
6. Giants - need a QB
7. Tenn - probably not a QB, they have Levis
8. Falcons - need a QB
9. Chicago again
10. Jets - they could be in the market for a QB
11. Vikings - also could be in the market for a QB
12. Broncos - QB is top priority
13. Raiders - QB is top priority
14. Saints - QB may also be a top priority

The Seahawks (16) and Steelers (20) may also be looking for a QB in this draft.

QBs who are franchise caliber, who are top 10 worthy: 1. Williams 2. Maye 3. Jayden Daniels 4. Michael Penix 5. Bo Nix (maybe)?

The demand for franchise QBs exceeds the supply. With the exception of Nix, I think these QBs will go in the top 10. Who is the best QB after Williams/Maye? Penix or Daniels? The Raiders are said to covet Daniels. Antonio Pierce is said to be close Daniels from their AZ State days. I know inner-division trades are unusual, but Telesco does have a relationship with the Chargers, don't count out the Raiders wanting to trade up to #5 for Daniels. If the not the Raiders, the Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Saints or even the Broncos would have incentive to trade up, there could be a lot of competition for the Chargers' pick.

Daniels will probably go at #3 to New England.
Marvin Harrison Jr. will probably go #4 to Arizona.

After Harrison Jr goes at #4, who will be worth spending a bunch to trade up to #5?

Pennix? Nix?

Unless teams suddenly get a hard on for Terrion Arnold or Dallas Turner, I highly doubt the Chargers will find a trade partner to move back.
There are 7 OTs who will go anywhere from #5 to #20, and lots of receivers ... premier positions that would warrant moving up, but will not be necessary.

[Boltjolt]

He is an exception for a 5th rounder. But that's not the point. The point is that half of the 10 best TEs in the league in 2023 were drafted in the 3rd round or later, and Kittle is an example of that.

I was responding to the guy that asked me why I was singling out Kittle. That was the point I was making and then said teams should draft QBs in round 6 and 7 as I wasn't singling Kittle, all you guys were by keep mentioning him and his 5th round status.

That's where I was coming from. And you know many here also want Nabers and some of the very best WRs in the NFL were also third rounders.

Doesn't mean there aren't good receivers and TEs from round 1. The best TE in history was a first round pick.

There is all kinds of ways to build a roster and the strength of a draft class at possition you need is a consideration and you need a anti Telesco GM.

[powderblueboy]

Finally looked at what the team who traded away the Mahome's pick to KC got out of it.

It was Buffalo,

and they selected Tre'Davious White at #27,
used the 3rd to move up to get Dionne Dawkins in the 2nd,
and used next years #1 from K.C. to get Tremaine Edmunds, after trading up from #22 to #17.

Not worth Mahomes, but a nice haul.

[sonorajim]

He is an exception for a 5th rounder. But that's not the point. The point is that half of the 10 best TEs in the league in 2023 were drafted in the 3rd round or later, and Kittle is an example of that.

Hortiz & associates will draft a high impact player with our 1st.
I like MHJ, Bowers, Nabers, Odunze in that order. If our draft team chooses another direction, then I hope I'm wrong.

[gzubeck]

Stay Pat...

I'm good with

Nabers, Turner, or Verse at #5...

[dmac_bolt]

Why are you singling out Kittle? He's one of many outstanding tight ends drafted after the first round. It's similar to running back. So many good-to-great ones fall out of the first round.

Many of us don't look at Brock Bowers as the "Sean Taylor" of tight ends. That, in addition to the fact it's not a position as valuable as others in play when you're picking that high, is why we prefer to not take him over a Joe Alt--or in my case Laiatu Latu (if he gets cleared medically).

Why single out just Kittle or “RB not named”? There are players at every position late in draft that nobody saw coming. The best WR rookie last year was, what , a 5th round pick? those are exceptions to the rule - everyone knows the stats that clearly show the later a player is taken, the lower odds he’ll ever be a starter and lower still odds he will be elite. Cherry picking after the fact by all sides is such a bore. Yawn.

Our counter-perspective is that the players at the normally top “value” positions that we need most don’t appear to be as elite as in many other years.

• Edge - we don’t see an edge rusher worth #5 in this draft
• CB - same - there is no Sauce Gardner in this draft
• QB - don’t need one
• WR - ok, I see that in Nabers, expect MH2 gone. Those 2 are worth #5.
• OT - we see the upgrade possible at RT, and Alt is good and a step up though not sure he’s the next All Pro. But he’s good, worthy of Top 5 pick. we just don’t see that as our greatest gaping need - appreciate others see it different. We see OC as the biggest OL need and OC is even less valued than TE. But Harbo and his staff will thoroughly assess what they got and if they decide RT is the position to upgrade, absent a trade down Alt or Fuaga will be their pick and I’ll trust them. I dont see Fashanu fitting Harbaugh/Hortiz ’s style, he’s not a powerful run blocker and not worth a Top 5 pick because of that - I’d take Fuaga over him despite the early expert rankings as Fuaga will maul defenders.

What other position is really that “top 10” standard position besides those 5?

Latu was a great college player against college blockers but he’s got T Rex arms. Huge question mark on him at the next level. He could be the next Melvin Ingram or he could be pro bowl. Could be wrong, nobody knows, but it’s there. And the medical question added on. Latu is not rated as best Edge rusher by a large number of analysts. There will probably be a great edge rusher come out of the draft, nobody is sure who that is. Everyone (well, except TPB minority) are sure Bowers is the best TE in the draft by a good margin, and a considerable portion rate him Top 5 talent in the draft and best TE talent in over a decade. He is a safer pick to most eyes.

Normally we wouldn’t take a TE at 5, we get it. Just looking at the board this year and what will really improve the Chargers. Everett is a FA, we have no legit TE. An all pro TE would change the Chargers, our two great offensive eras in modern times had a great TE. The best teams have a great TE. we think Bowers is that guy and we think taking a TE in Rd 3, 4, 5 is a risk of coming up empty.

[Velo]

Daniels will probably go at #3 to New England.
Marvin Harrison Jr. will probably go #4 to Arizona.

After Harrison Jr goes at #4, who will be worth spending a bunch to trade up to #5?

Pennix? Nix?

Unless teams suddenly get a hard on for Terrion Arnold or Dallas Turner, I highly doubt the Chargers will find a trade partner to move back.
There are 7 OTs who will go anywhere from #5 to #20, and lots of receivers ... premier positions that would warrant moving up, but will not be necessary.

I think the fact there are so many teams for whom a QB is a priority makes the Chargers #5 pick a hot commodity and the Chargers will have multiple trade partner opportunities.

[Velo]

Bowers is an outlier. I have been trying to say he is not the typical TE. He is a weapon.

https://www.google.com/search?q=char...ideos-b0d488be

But you can't say with any certainty that he will be that good - #5 overall good - in the NFL.

[gzubeck]

I think the fact there are so many teams for whom a QB is a priority makes the Chargers #5 pick a hot commodity and the Chargers will have multiple trade partner opportunities.

I think if Daniels is still on the board for some strange reason.

[powderblueboy]

I think the fact there are so many teams for whom a QB is a priority makes the Chargers #5 pick a hot commodity and the Chargers will have multiple trade partner opportunities.

You mean the Ryan Tanehill/Daniel Jones syndrome: some unworthy qb rockets up draft boards right before the draft.

[Chargers8491]

But you can't say with any certainty that he will be that good - #5 overall good - in the NFL.

You can say that with any pick. No one knows how good these guys will be in the NFL. It's a crap shoot and you can only hope that your evaluations are spot on. Honestly, how do you know any of the OT will be good? How do you even know which which OT will be better for the Chargers when we don't even know what kinda O-line scheme we are going to be running?