And With The 5th Pick Of The NFL Draft Chargers Select....Discussion

[Kellyb72601]

Yeah but by that same argument why would anyone want to trade up with Hortiz all the way to #5 with the top 4 Qbs gone and all those good players still available? Say you're a team sitting somewhere around #15. They could trade up to 9 or 10 and get the same caliber player making a trade up to #5 unlikely IMO.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Yeah but by that same argument why would anyone want to trade up with Hortiz all the way to #5 with the top 4 Qbs gone and all those good players still available? Say you're a team sitting somewhere around #15. They could trade up to 9 or 10 and get the same caliber player making a trade up to #5 unlikely IMO.

Remember how a decade-plus ago, the Falcons traded two #1 picks to move up to (I think it was) 7th overall to select Julio Jones?

The Chargers will be looking for a trade partner who's willing to give up a good chunk of draft capital to move up for MHJ or Nabers.

[Boltx]

The Chargers will be looking for a trade partner who's willing to give up a good chunk of draft capital to move up for MHJ or Nabers.

Why do we NEED to trade out of that spot, especially if a blue chip prospect is there?

I understand if it's the deal of a lifetime, but I don't get this burning desire to trade down simply for the sake of trading down and picking up another mid round draft pick.

Yeah, we have a lot of needs to fill. Guess what, we don't need to do it all in one offseason. 2024 isn't Super Bowl or bust. Personally I would always take the top 5 pick (especially in this draft with so many blue chip guys) instead of trading back to the middle of the round and taking a shot on someone who may or may not be there. Sammy Davis and Terrence Kiel say hello while Troy Polamalu is chilling in the HOF.

Now if it's trading back to like 8 or 9 and still getting Bowers, sure. Is there even a deal like that out there? But honestly if MHJr is sitting there...how do you not take him? Take the generational talent (also at a position of need) and worry about the rest later. Trust me, nobody in 3 years is going to say "Man, I wish we didn't take MHJr just so we had traded back and had another pick to draft a backup ____). Don't overthink this!

[Kellyb72601]

Remember how a decade-plus ago, the Falcons traded two #1 picks to move up to (I think it was) 7th overall to select Julio Jones?

The Chargers will be looking for a trade partner who's willing to give up a good chunk of draft capital to move up for MHJ or Nabers.

I don't think we'll see that because there's 4 potentially elite guys. MHJ, Nabors, Odunze, Thomas Jr. - you'll find people who love each one of them. The only thing I'm sure about is buffalo will be trading up to draft one of them and I suspect that won't happen until 2 or 3 of them have already come off the board. For my money I think their guy is Thomas Jr.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

Why do we NEED to trade out of that spot, especially if a blue chip prospect is there?

I understand if it's the deal of a lifetime, but I don't get this burning desire to trade down simply for the sake of trading down and picking up another mid round draft pick.

Yeah, we have a lot of needs to fill. Guess what, we don't need to do it all in one offseason. 2024 isn't Super Bowl or bust. Personally I would always take the top 5 pick (especially in this draft with so many blue chip guys) instead of trading back to the middle of the round and taking a shot on someone who may or may not be there. Sammy Davis and Terrence Kiel say hello while Troy Polamalu is chilling in the HOF.

Now if it's trading back to like 8 or 9 and still getting Bowers, sure. Is there even a deal like that out there? But honestly if MHJr is sitting there...how do you not take him? Take the generational talent (also at a position of need) and worry about the rest later. Trust me, nobody in 3 years is going to say "Man, I wish we didn't take MHJr just so we had traded back and had another pick to draft a backup ____). Don't overthink this!

I've said this elsewhere, so apologies in advance for repeating myself...

If you believe that MHJ is *that* much better than everybody else, then YES, you take him. If you believe that MHJ is Jerry Rice level material, and the other guys are the equal of Tory Holt or Isaac Bruce-- very good receivers, but no comparison to Jerry Rice-- then you take him.

If you believe than MHJ is just a smidge better than Nabers, Odunze, et al, *THEN* trading back for the boatload makes sense.

So IMO, the decision rests on that calculation of JUST HOW MUCH better a prospect you evaluate MHJ to be, over the other elites. The answer to that question informs the decision you make. And some of us non-scout fanboys may GUESS right as to what Hortiz ends up doing, but we absolutely DO NOT KNOW what he's thinking.

[MusicMakerInMe]

Yeah, the way I see it unless you've scouted an untouchable player/prospect (usually a QB), then you want to trade down. Even from a top 10 prospects point of view: they'll most likely find it harder to play against a team that has two top 20 prospects (one perhaps a top 10 prospect) than just playing against another one.

I'm aware that sounds a little shaky, but I know whenever I'm playing a competitive game I'm good at it's usually tougher to beat a team that has more than 1 good player vs another team that has a single standout (unless they're a straight up ringer who can or a hard carry that's seriously the 1% or something).

It really comes down to asking yourself if MHJ/Naber/Bowers/Alt is that much better than the rest of the league or that much better than the guys you can get in the 2nd round along with the overhaul (who will also potentially be top 5 for their positions in the first round). If that one guy is worth it, then sure. If not, take the gamble on more picks which can additionally be used in package deals and many chances at other elite talent.

Everyone thought the Cowboys were crazy for trading Herschel Walker for picks until those picks basically built the Cowboys dynasty. Bucs traded the #7 overall pick for #12 and a couple 2nd rounders. At #12, they take Warren Sapp. They then use those 2nd rounders to move back up into the end of the 1st round and take Derrick Brooks. One trade down, two first-ballot Hall of Famers. Eagles drafted Mike Mamula at #7 who was a high-value prospect who absolutely lit up the combine.

That said, there are simply too many examples and counter-examples of either philosophy working. It really comes down to whether or not you think one of the top 5 are truly that gamebreaking, won't have health issues, etc. The draft is primarily a zero sum game: your mistakes are to other teams' gains. Passing on MHJ/Nabers/Bowers/Alt may come back to hurt you in the future, but drafting one of them and them being a bust/injury prone/marginally better while seeing the potential 2-4 other players you could have drafted be elite on other teams hurts the same.

[Boltx]

I've said this elsewhere, so apologies in advance for repeating myself...

If you believe that MHJ is *that* much better than everybody else, then YES, you take him. If you believe that MHJ is Jerry Rice level material, and the other guys are the equal of Tory Holt or Isaac Bruce-- very good receivers, but no comparison to Jerry Rice-- then you take him.

If you believe than MHJ is just a smidge better than Nabers, Odunze, et al, *THEN* trading back for the boatload makes sense.

So IMO, the decision rests on that calculation of JUST HOW MUCH better a prospect you evaluate MHJ to be, over the other elites. The answer to that question informs the decision you make. And some of us non-scout fanboys may GUESS right as to what Hortiz ends up doing, but we absolutely DO NOT KNOW what he's thinking.

I agree with you, I hope I didn't come across as attacking your post. I was speaking in general.

I wouldn't be a fan of trading down to the teens or multiple trade downs simply for the sake of trading down. If we can be strategic and still get our "cluster" if guys, great. I personally DO think MHJr is THAT much better than the other prospects. But I admit I'm biased.

That being said, I will trust the new regime to do what is right and support their moves.

[eaterfan]

I've said this elsewhere, so apologies in advance for repeating myself...

If you believe that MHJ is *that* much better than everybody else, then YES, you take him. If you believe that MHJ is Jerry Rice level material, and the other guys are the equal of Tory Holt or Isaac Bruce-- very good receivers, but no comparison to Jerry Rice-- then you take him.

If you believe than MHJ is just a smidge better than Nabers, Odunze, et al, *THEN* trading back for the boatload makes sense.

So IMO, the decision rests on that calculation of JUST HOW MUCH better a prospect you evaluate MHJ to be, over the other elites. The answer to that question informs the decision you make. And some of us non-scout fanboys may GUESS right as to what Hortiz ends up doing, but we absolutely DO NOT KNOW what he's thinking.

That's a great way of summarizing it!

However, I think it also depends on how far the Bolts trade down. I think MHJ is just a smidge better than Nabers and Odunze, but if they trade to 11 none of those guys will be there. So the question is how much better you think those guys are then the next tier of player. I do think they are all significantly better than any other WR in the draft. I think there are several more guys with really high ceilings, but I think the floors on everyone else are much lower and they have less chance of hitting that ceiling than the top 3 guys.

[Riverwalk]

Per Twitter….Malik Nabers was shopping for a house in the LA area when he was on his visit with the Chargers.

[Parcells]

To me it’s MHJ and Nabers, but even if QBs go 1-4, I expect that MHJ and Nabers go 5 and 6, in which case a trade down doesnt
make sense if the goal is to get one of the two of them.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

That’s very sensible, Quack.

The exact opposite of Lee 'Hacksaw' Hamilton. Who's have thought?!?

[MusicMakerInMe]

Bucs traded the #7 overall pick for #12 and a couple 2nd rounders. At #12, they take Warren Sapp. They then use those 2nd rounders to move back up into the end of the 1st round and take Derrick Brooks. One trade down, two first-ballot Hall of Famers.

Trade back with Minny for #11 and #23.
Bowers at #11
Trade #23 and #37
Fautanu in the top 15-20.

Bowers and Fautanu for our top two picks this draft. Would love it.