Official 2018 Draft Thread- We Have the 17th Pick

[Formula 21]

So I'm starting to look harder at the 2nd tier qbs this year.

[Formula 21]

Want a QB? I don't. But next year doesn't offer good prospects either (so far) so we'd need to wait until 2020 to get one if we pass on a faller this year.


A Way-Too-Early Look at the Potential 2019 NFL Draft QB Class

Brad Gagnon
March 20, 2018

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
So you're looking for a future franchise quarterback, but the 2018 draft class isn't floating your boat?
Maybe you're discouraged by the fact Sam Darnold committed 22 turnovers last season. Maybe you're concerned that Josh Allen put up so-so numbers in the Mountain West Conference. Maybe you're afraid that Baker Mayfield's height and/or ego could cause problems. Maybe you'd prefer that Josh Rosen not have real-world opinions. Maybe you aren't convinced Lamar Jackson can become a regular NFL starter under center.
Or maybe you just aren't in a position to land the 2018 quarterback prospect you do believe in.
Might you be better off waiting for the 2019 draft? A lot can and will change over the course of the next 13 months, but early indications are that class will actually be weaker and shallower than this one.
Here's a way-too-early peek.






Shea Patterson, Michigan

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Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press
Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson is still waiting to find out whether he'll be eligible to play in 2018 after transferring from Ole Miss, which was sanctioned in December as a result of a recruiting scandal. But if he plays in the fall, he has ability to become top-five pick next spring.
The mobile, accurate and efficient Patterson looks and feels a lot like Baker Mayfield, and predictable Russell Wilson comparisons have been made. He's elusive, strong-armed and highly-instinctive for a quarterback with only 10 college games under his belt.
"He's as good as advertised," Kevin Wright, Patterson's former head coach at IMG Academy, told MLive's Aaron McMann in December. "As I watched him in his first SEC game against Texas A&M (in 2016), I was sitting there watching the game kind of laughing. Because he's running around making plays just like he did in high school. He's making SEC defenses look like he made high school defenses look. At times, it's amazing. He makes it look easy. He's definitely a special player."
Patterson completed 63.8 percent of his passes, averaged 8.7 yards per attempt and posted 17 touchdowns to nine interceptions in half a season at Mississippi in 2017, but the 21-year-old suffered a season-ending knee injury in October.
In order to become a hot prospect in the draft, Patterson will need to put together a complete season under Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. But he might not even get that opportunity until 2019.






Drew Lock, Missouri

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Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
Coming off a junior season in which he averaged 9.5 yards per attempt and posted an SEC record 44 touchdowns to only 13 interceptions, Missouri's Drew Lock decided to stay in school rather than compete with Darnold, Mayfield, Allen, Rosen and Co. for draft positioning in 2018.
Now, the big-armed 21-year-old probably needs one strong senior season in an offense with more pro-style elements under new coordinator Derek Dooley in order to be viewed as a potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. He completed just 57.8 percent of his passes in a fairly simple offense last year, and that number will have to grow under Dooley's tutelage.
The completion rate should be accompanied by an asterisk, though, because Lock went deep so often in that offense, which lit up the SEC during the second half of the 2017 season.
"Drew Lock is every bit as talented as any quarterback coming out of school," Trent Dilfer told 590 The Fan in December. "Josh Rosen. Sam Darnold. Baker Mayfield. Any of them."
He has one year to prove it.






Jarrett Stidham, Auburn

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Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
In his first season at Auburn, Jarrett Stidham completed 66.5 percent of his passes and posted 18 touchdown throws to just six interceptions while leading the Tigers to victories in seven of their eight games within the SEC.
Two of those wins came in a three-week span against heavyweights Georgia and Alabama, with the transfer from Baylor completing 73 percent of his passes for 451 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions while the Auburn offense scored a combined 66 points in those two.
Stidham already has the size (6'3", 214 pounds), the arm talent and the quick release you want from a franchise quarterback. Now he'll need a strong redshirt junior season in order to overcome potential concerns regarding the fact he hasn't taken many college snaps under center.
Of course, it's always possible he'll stay in school until 2020 anyway.






Clayton Thorson, Northwestern

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Steven Branscombe/Getty Images
A three-year starter in the Big Ten, Clayton Thorson might have been viewed as a strong second-tier quarterback prospect in the 2018 draft had he decided to leave school.
And while the redshirt senior remains intriguing as an athletic, 6'4", 225-pounder who can make every throw, he faces an uphill battle after tearing his ACL in January.
It'll be tough for Thorson to return rust-free in time for the start of his final year of eligibility, and even if that happens, he'll have to prove that he's a good enough decision-maker (he threw a career-high 12 interceptions last year) to be considered a high-round selection. His numbers weren't exceptional in 2017, but he deserves a lot of credit for leading the Wildcats and their pro-style offense to 27 wins and a pair of bowl victories in a three-year span, despite a lack of talent around him.
Even before he helped Northwestern get to the Music City Bowl with a 10-win 2017 campaign, Thorson was getting props from ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr.
If he can bounce back and build on a completion percentage that has increased significantly in each of his first three seasons as a starter, he'll have a chance to be a first-round pick in April 2019.
Safe to say this is a make-or-break year.






Will Grier, West Virginia

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Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images
Despite putting up superb numbers at West Virginia in 2017, Will Grier decided to stay in school. That'll give him a chance to prove that his first full season as a college starter wasn't a fluke.
The Florida transfer completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards, 34 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and a 9.0 yards-per-attempt average as a redshirt junior. Prior to bowl season, that earned Grier the second-best Pro Football Focus grade among all college football quarterbacks.
"He's along the lines of [Baker] Mayfield and [Kenny] Hill in terms of he's really, really accurate throwing the football," said Texas head coach Tom Herman in November, per Zach Barnett of College Football Talk. "He's a tremendous passer. But he can make you pay with his feet, too. He's as good as we've played, and we've played some really, really good ones."
PFF concluded that Grier is a big-time thrower who excels against the blitz, which is pretty much exactly what NFL evaluators want. But he's also trying to overcome the red flag associated with a PED suspension that cost him his 2016 season and ended his tenure at Florida.
One more year of polish could help Grier bury that a little more and gain some first-round buzz entering 2019.






About 2020...

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Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images
Even if all five of the quarterbacks above perform well in 2018 and enter the draft in 2019, and even if other potential 2019 blue-chip quarterback prospects like Florida State's Deondre Francois and Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald come through with big years, it'll be hard for the 2019 class to hold a candle to a flawed-but-deep, high-upside 2018 class.
A lot can change, but last year at this time, we were already calling the 2018 quarterback class "stacked," "loaded" and "potentially historically good."
Nobody in the 2019 class looks like Josh Allen, and few of them are likely to have resumes that resemble those of Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield.
That means teams that decide to wait this year could have to be patient enough to hold out until 2020, when Washington's Georgia transfer Jacob Eason, his replacement Jake Fromm and hyped Alabama lefty Tua Tagovailoa will all be eligible.

[blueman]

Looking forward to a run on CBs early.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/sports/Rashaad-Penny-Headlines-SDSU-Pro-Day-477682893.html

[Formula 21]

2018 NFL Draft positional strengths and weaknesses

Defensive interiorTop End: Weak

Depth: Average


Linebacker


Top End: Strong

Depth: Strong



Cornerback


Josh JacksonMinkah FitzpatrickTop End: Strong

Depth: Average





Safety


Top End: Weak

Depth: Strong

[blueman]

Yep, same page. I know Steve is against it but I’m beginning to think Bradley wants someone other than Perryman to be his every down LB. Which wouldn’t suck cuz maybe limiting Perryman’s snaps means he can play a full season?

[Formula 21]

Jatavis wasn't a starter so he needs to compete with whoever is brought in.

[Fleet]

In this scenario of taking Esch in the 1st and Nwosu in the 2nd or 3rd, what role does that leave for Jatavis? It seems like he would be the odd man out, and maybe we should then try to trade him. I still have high hopes for Jatavis. I can see picking one LB in the first 3 rounds, but not two. I'm thinking one of the 1st 3 picks needs to be D-line, Esch, Penny, Settle, and a S would be something like what I'd like to do, and then depth after that. If we can sign a DT in free agency that is better than what we have now in Mebane or Liuget, then even better, and we could push drafting a D-lineman back.

He lost his gig to Phillips last year. And i thought maybe Jatavis would get a chance with Phillips gone. But we brought Phillips back. I honestly dont know what Jatavis' role will be. He needs to learn the defense. So at this point i would say hes in a competition with Phillips.

[Attack]

Perryman at WLB....Vander Esch at ILB and Nwosu at SAM. I just cant find film of him dropping back in coverage. But he can play the edge well and keep a RB from popping outside. But he will be right up on the line as he doesnt play off much. He needs to be up close on the edge.

Im kind of seeing a Bruce Irvin type or maybe even Shane Ray when Denver was using a 43. They had Miller and Ray standing up with Ware's hand in the ground. Wolfe was playing Bosa's spot. We have a bunch of good DBs who can play LB. Phillips, Addae, Jenkins etc. On obvious passing downs like 3rd and long we can move Bosa inside and rush Ingram with Nwosu opposite of him. Thats 3 pretty good pass rushers that can apply pressure and let our Hybrids do all the covering.

In this scenario of taking Esch in the 1st and Nwosu in the 2nd or 3rd, what role does that leave for Jatavis? It seems like he would be the odd man out, and maybe we should then try to trade him. I still have high hopes for Jatavis. I can see picking one LB in the first 3 rounds, but not two. I'm thinking one of the 1st 3 picks needs to be D-line, Esch, Penny, Settle, and a S would be something like what I'd like to do, and then depth after that. If we can sign a DT in free agency that is better than what we have now in Mebane or Liuget, then even better, and we could push drafting a D-lineman back.

[Fleet]

Honestly im good with any of the 4 LBs in round 1. I personally think one will be a bolt. We can go DT in round 2. Its really good value for the LBs at 17 considering the amount of time i think all 4 can play. They are all so fast that they will be in on 3rd downs most likely. It they want a middle LB to shoot gaps and get after a qb while also being pretty stout against the run than Evans will likely be high on the list. He was a machine from that MLB spot and can rush the passer outside. He could be a freelance gap guy the way he just flies through gaps. Plus hes a really solid tackler. I want a fast LB on this team. Not sure if hes a MLB in our system but he would have a big roll outside. He may be best suited at WLB and Perryman inside.

[charger1993]

You know who vander esch reminds me of

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

I still think a second or third on a RB/returner is not a bad pick if it's Penny.