Official 2018 Draft Thread- We Have the 17th Pick

[Attack]

Agree with your cluster. And hoping it's D-line at 17.

[blueman]

I wonder. Some really nice second tier DT types this year...

[Formula 21]

Do PFF college grades translate to the NFL for pass-rushers?second articlewritten about beforeHow NCAA Pass-Rushing Grades Predict NFL Pass-Rushing Grades


As we at PFF have discussed previously, while sacks are a hugely important part of football, they are generally better predicted by things like PFF pass-rushing grades and pressures than they are by sacks themselves. Thus, when looking at predicting pro success for college pass-rushers, examining (raw, play-by-play) grades and pressure statistics first, is the way to go.

Doing simple correlation analysis, we find that per-snap pass-rushing grades at the college level correlate at a rate of 0.69 with grades at the NFL level, meaning that roughly half of the variance in how a pass-rusher performs at the pro level (should he get to 250 pass-rushing snaps) can be explained by the variance in how he graded as a college pass-rusher. This is very similar to the year-to-year correlation between pass-rushers we cited here at the NFL level. Pressures at the college level correlate with pressures at the pro level at a similarly-strong rate of 0.60, while PFF pass-rushing grades and pressures correlate with sacksCarl Lawson being one of the better players in the entire draft a year ago. A great example of the efficacy of using PFF college grades to project play at the next level, Lawson shined as a rookie, earning a 80.6 grade and 59 total pressures in a limited role for the Bengals, despite falling to the fourth round of the draft.

CombineThus, when players like Maurice Hurst are higher in our mock drafts

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Maurice Hurst's PFF college grading suggests he's a special NFL prospect Jan 1, 2018; Tampa, FL, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Jake Bentley (19) attempts a pass under pressure from Michigan Wolverines defensive lineman Maurice Hurst (73) during the first half in the 2018 Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsDominant Career


Disruption against the run and passall three areas

When it comes to pass-rushing, it may look like Hurst had a breakout season with his eight sacks in 2017 after coming into the year with only seven in his career, but as the PFF Analytics team has pointed out numerous timesFinal Word

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PFF Draft Board: Top 100 players for the 2018 NFL Draft


From a pure production standpoint, Mayfield has been in another class, and he has the necessary NFL tools despite questions about his height. He owns the two top PFF grades since 2014 and possesses the arm, accuracy and playmaking ability to be the best quarterback in the class. Mayfield has posted the lowest percentage of negatively graded throws in the nation for two straight years, and he led the draft class in big-time throw percentage last season, showing he was what it takes to create big plays down the field. @PFF_Steve)

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One of the most dynamic receivers at the running back position enters a league where passing has never been more important. Barkley is by far the best and most complete back in this class and a threat to take it to the house on any given play. He ranked fifth in 2017 among all FBS backs with a breakaway percentage of 56.8. His only real negative is a tendency to pass up three yards in tight confines to try and break outside for a bigger gain, but that is more than offset by the good he can do. @PFF_Sam)

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Fitzpatrick has elite play and traits, but his NFL question is what position he will play at the next level. The position with the most value to NFL teams is perimeter corner, but he played just 13 snaps there in 2017 and how he will perform there at the next level is almost pure speculation. He has been a versatile and productive star in the Alabama defense at multiple positions and should have the athleticism to project outside at the next level, but that projection is an unknown variable.@PFF_Sam)

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he flashed all the tools necessary to be a high-level tackle in the NFL. @PFF_Mike)

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It's hard to argue that Hurst wouldn't be a great pick at 17, perhaps the best pick the Bolts could make. 3 everydown pass rushers on one line, wow.

[Formula 21]

Ray Didinger, the Eagles' Pro Football Hall of Fame reporter-turned-unofficial team historian, once had the opportunity to pick Bill Walsh's brain.

"I asked him, 'What is the single-biggest factor for winning in the NFL?" Didinger recalls.

And Walsh, offensive savant and passing-game revolutionary, took Didinger by surprise. "'Fourth-quarter pass rush," Walsh offered.

Walsh wasn't just interested in collaboration by standard-issue rotation, though. And he didn't merely shuffle his linemen through a constantly revolving door; he ushered them through when and where their strengths could be maximized.

"Amen," says Mike Giddings, president of Proscout Inc., which offers its talent scouting and consulting expertise to up to 15 NFL teams, of Walsh's philosophy. "I'm a huge believer in the seven-, eight-man wave. You look across the line of scrimmage, and the guys in the huddle are huffing and puffing. You look over at your D-line, and they got their chest out. Like, 'Hey, isn't it a nice day out here?

Since I'm not getting one of the top two LBs in the first, I'm going to go with DL.. And not a run stopper first guy, some top thinkers shows its the pass rusher that makes the difference. So Hurst is my top choice for the Bolts at 17. And deep depth on the DL is a good idea too so you can have an effective, well thought out, DL rotation strategy.

[blueman]

If Davenport drops, I’d be very tempted, for the same reason. Also why I’m not sure we cut Luiget or Mebane even if we draft DL heavy.

[Gwynning_Spirit]

Wonderlic scores for 2018 QBs

• Josh Allen: 37
• Josh Rosen: 29
• Sam Darnold: 28
• Baker Mayfield: 25
• Lamar Jackson: 13

I'm taking two off my board, can you guess the two?

How high does my Wonderlic have to be to get the answer right?

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

More than the licks it takes to the center of a totsy pop...

[Gwynning_Spirit]

More than the licks it takes to the center of a totsy pop...

that seems like a higher number than I thought.

But it did make me look up tater-totsy pops in gooogle
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[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

If you can lick those to the center you will be popular with the ladies!

[Boltx]

Get Hurst, let the DL loose and watch everybody else's play drastically improve as well.

I'm a big fan of having as nasty a DL as possible.

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Prisco's lastest mock has LBs going 8, 10 and 12. Vander Esch going at 8. WTF? Why is this unimportant position flying up the board?

8. Chicago Bears

Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. They need to get better at linebacker and some scouts have compared Vander Esch to Luke Kuechly.
9. San Francisco 49ers

Marcus Davenport, OLB-DE, UTSA. They need to get edge-rush help. Davenport is the next highest-rated edge rusher behind Chubb.
10. Oakland Raiders

Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia. They need to get a playmaking linebacker and Smith would be that guy. He could play in the middle of their defense.
11. Miami Dolphins

Vita Vea, DT, Washington. This would be a nice replacement for Ndamukong Suh -- and a lot cheaper. He is a more athletic player than Haloti Ngata, who many compare him to in evaluations.
12. New York Giants (via mock trade with Bills)

Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech. They have had major issues at linebacker for a long time. Edmunds can play inside or outside in their defense.
13. Washington Redskins

Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State. The Redskins would be getting the best cover player in this draft if they were to land Ward.


14. Green Bay Packers

Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB-S, Alabama. They need to get better at corner and they also lost safety Morgan Burnett to free agency. This would make a ton of sense.
15. Arizona Cardinals

Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa. Their corner spot opposite Patrick Peterson needs upgrading and Jackson would help fix that. He is a nice player who has great ball skills to be a good No. 2 corner.
16. Baltimore Ravens

Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina. He is a big, powerful player who is the most complete tight end in this class. The Ravens have a major hole at the spot.
17. Los Angeles Chargers

Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama. He is a player who would help improve them in a big way up front. They need to get stouter against the run.

[chargerkdb]

Those same 3 LB’s among the 22 players attending draft as guests of the NFL