Official 2018 Draft Thread- We Have the 17th Pick

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

Hurst is the big question mark. I know he was medially cleared and reports were sent to all team MDs I would be stoked with him Bosa and Ingram mixing and matching on the dline.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

More than a month after doctors sent Michigan defensive lineman Maurice Hurst

[Formula 21]

I suspect he's our guy.

[Formula 21]

NFL Draft: Are Safeties Worth a Top Five Draft Pick?

Atlanta and Kansas City general managers Thomas Dimitroff and Scott Pioli worked together in New England. This March during the NFL Owners' Meeting, the two were discussing the Chiefs' options at No. 5.

Dimitroff brought up Berry in a conversation logged by Peter King. "Scott, this guy's your pick," Dimitroff said. Pioli apparently didn't agree. "You know how I feel about safeties that early." Pioli's not the only one. There has been only one safety chosen with a top-five NFL Draft pick since 1992 (Sean Taylor). The last time a safety was selected in the top three was Eric Turner back in 1991.

Ironically, the two top safeties in recent memory, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, weren't even taken in the top 15.

Why is this? Why do safeties fall on Draft Day? Quite simply: The safety position is not really that important. In fact, it's quite insignificant when compared to quarterbacks, left tackles and pass-rushing defensive ends.

Of course, we'll need numbers to back this claim up. Let's take a look at every single safety drafted in the top 15 picks since 1991. I'm going to list whether each player was a hit or bust, as well as the original team's record with each player on the roster. These players are listed chronologically, starting from the most recent:

Safety	Draft No.	Team	Original Team's Record	Hit, OK or Bust
LaRon Landry	2007, No. 6	WAS	21-27	OK - Has played fine at times, but blows tons of coverages. Not nearly the player the Redskins thought they were getting at No. 6.
Michael Huff	2006, No. 7	OAK	16-48	OK - Has had an up-and-down career, but he's been benched in the past. Again, not the great player the Raiders were expecting at No. 7 overall.
Donte Whitner	2006, No. 8	BUF	27-37	OK - A decent strong safety, but not anything special.
Sean Taylor	2004, No. 5	WAS	26-33	Hit - What a shame his life ended so early.
Roy Williams	2002, No. 8	DAL	55-44	Bust - Became famous with his hard hits, but was torched in coverage week in and week out.
Patrick Bates	1993, No. 12	OAK	27-21	Bust - Not a great pick by Al Davis; lasted only four years in the NFL. Amazingly, there were no top-15 safeties from 1994 to 2001.
Eric Turner	1991, No. 2	CLE	36-44	Hit - A 2-time Pro Bowler.
Stanley Richard	1991, No. 9	SD	34-30	OK - A solid safety who played eight years. No Pro Bowls.
Totals			242-284	Hits: 2; OK: 4; Busts: 2

No team that drafted a safety in the top 15 since 1991 has won a Super Bowl with that player on its roster. And as you can see, teams that spent top-15 picks on safeties were 242-284 (.460) with that prospect on the roster.

Furthermore, if you exclude the records of Roy Williams and Patrick Bates, who didn't contribute much to their team's success (Williams struggled when the Cowboys went 13-3 in 2007 - thus his bloated record), teams that used top-15 picks on safeties were 160-219 (.422) with that prospect on the roster. And here I thought top-15 picks were supposed to help each team improve.

But wait a second. Eric Berry is obviously going to be better than Donte Whitner and LaRon Landry, correct? We can only speculate, but it's pretty much safe to say that Berry will be a great safety in the NFL. Does that change things?

Well, let's look at the two hits. The (both) late Sean Taylor and Eric Turner were Pro Bowl-caliber safeties. The Redskins and Browns were a combined 62-77 (.446) with them on the roster. Moreover, Taylor and Turner helped their teams reach only two playoff appearances in nine combined seasons in Washington and Cleveland, respectively.

Now, you may exclaim, "It's not Taylor's fault the Redskins were 21-27 with him on the roster; they had tons of other holes!" And that's precisely the point of this article - as good as Taylor was, he just didn't impact the result of Washington's games. The safety position is just not important.

For Kansas City fans who still want their team to select Berry: If you're content with the Chiefs winning 44.6 percent of their games, then by all means, ask Pioli to change his mind about taking safeties that early.

But Eric Berry Is Supposed to Be the Next Ed Reed! I've received a few e-mails about this, so I feel this should be addressed as well. Yes, Berry is being compared to Reed. Two problems with this though:

1. There is no guarantee that Berry will be as good as Reed. Wasn't Glenn Dorsey supposed to be the next Warren Sapp? Wasn't Vernon Gholston supposed to be the next DeMarcus Ware? Wasn't the late Gaines Adams supposed to be the next great pass-rusher? There are no guarantees in the NFL Draft. None. Anyone who believes otherwise is fooling themselves. Any prospect can bust.

2. Let's say Berry is the next Reed. How has Reed done for the Ravens? Well, since he was drafted in 2002, Baltimore is 70-58, which is a winning percentage of 54.7 - equating to something less than a 9-7 average (9-7 is 56.3 percent).

It's worth noting that Reed's record with the Ravens before they added Joe Flacco (i.e. a franchise quarterback) was 50-46 (.521).

In other words, if the Chiefs draft Berry, and Berry actually becomes the Hall of Fame player he's expected to be (which is definitely not a guarantee; see those busts I've mentioned), Kansas City will average anywhere between eight or nine wins with him on the roster.

Read more at http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftsa...Gv1sY5LY0Hh.99

[Formula 21]

Lance Zierlein
✔ @LanceZierlein





I can't believe I just got to USM safety Tarvarius Moore. His testing numbers were insane at 4.32, with 38.5 VJ and 11'1" BJ, but the tape matched the testing. Excellent cover skills too. Easy second day selection and one of the most under-the-radar safeties in the class.
2:36 PM - Apr 4, 2018

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On the wisdom of having a running qb...

Eagles want Wentz to learn from Brady, preserve body

"I'm going to sit down and talk to him," coach Doug Pederson said at Annual League Meeting last week. "Longevity's everything in this business. Learn from the best. Learn from Tom Brady, who got hurt early in his career. And learn from guys that have done that and yet still went on to have great careers and long careers."

Wentz and the Eagles are optimistic he'll return from ACL and LCL surgery in time for Week 1 next season. They'd prefer it if he stayed there for the entire slate of games in 2018, too.

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Mock Draft Tracker 7.0

Thursday, April 05, 2018 2:47 PM PDT

By Ricky Henne

Managing Editor
Chargers.com

@ChargersRHenneJoey Bosa and Melvin IngramBrandon MebanePhilip RiversGeno Smith and Cardale Jones, but Jackson's the type of quarterback who could be the long-term answer in post-Philip RiversJoey Bosa and Melvin Ingram

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Were going to get an outstanding player at 17 who will contribute this year.

[Formula 21]

It never hurts to be compared to a star.

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State


NFL comparison: Dak Prescott

Prescott started 33 games at Mississippi State and operated a shotgun-based, spread-option offense. Rudolph started 41 games at Oklahoma State and ran a spread-option attack in which he was rarely under center. Prescott didn't enter the NFL with a huge arm, and he displayed above-average mobility on designed runs and when he needed to elude pressure inside the pocket. Rudolph isn't as twichy as Prescott but is an underrated scrambler and deft pocket-mover. Both naturally keep their eyes up when drifting away from incoming pressure and can be useful in short-yardage situations on read-option keeps. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Prescott has been one of the NFL's most accurate and high-efficiency deep passers. Rudolph thrives throwing the football down the field. In terms of playing style, Rudolph and Prescott are very similar.


Lamar Jackson, Louisville


NFL comparison: Steve McNair

Later in this career, McNair really bulked up and didn't run much -- from 2003 to 2007, his last five years in the league, he only rushed over 40 times in a single season one time ... 2006 -- but coming out of Alcorn State in 1995 and during the early stages of his pro career, McNair was a tremendous scrambler. He carried the ball at least 72 times each season from 1997 to 2002, scored 28 touchdowns on the ground, and averaged 5.9 yards per rush. Also, he was known for the way he could effortlessly fire the football with plenty of velocity over the middle or 60 yards down the field. Jackson is the most electric scrambling quarterback since Michael Vick and has a strong, underrated arm. But Vick's not my comparison because Jackson's a much better passer than the former Virginia Tech star was. McNair went No. 3 overall in 1995 not solely for his athletic prowess. He was also proficient - but not perfect -- from the pocket. That's the case with Jackson too. No, their body types aren't the exact same, but examining the entire skill set, there are many parallels between Jackson and McNair.

[Formula 21]

This is why I'm not interested in a run stuffing DT in the 1st. It's critical for the stats, it's just not critical to winning. We need somebody who can rush the qb or who can defend the pass.

Los Angeles Chargers





Casey Hayward (96.4), Melvin Ingram (91.9), Joey Bosa (91.7), Trevor Williams (88.5) and Desmond King (86.5), an important slot weaponJason Verrett (just 323 snaps the last two years) at cornerback, where he earned PFF grades of over 86.0 in 2014 and 2015. If he can play at that level in 2018, the Chargers will have a cornerback room that rivals those of the most-recent Broncos defenses that were able to lead Denver to a Super Bowl win, with a front four rivaling that of the recent Seahawks defensive dynasties (both in talent and scheme). While safety and general athleticism in the middle of their defense are a concern, our latest mock draft

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I did a previous post here where a PFF study showed pass rush skills in college had a strong correlation with pass rush skills in the pros.

[Formula 21]

I wouldn't trade up for Chubb. I'd rather have a different position that can pass rush rather that a redundant position. And it would be at least two #1s, a very high cost. Also, strengthening your weakest position has more benefit than strengthening your strongest position.

[blueman]

I was thinking Bosa slides in, Chubb plays end. On some downs that could be exactly strengthening a weak position. But yeah, a high cost when we can sit tight and snag a top D guy anyway, way this draft likely shakes out.

[bonehead]

This is why I'm not interested in a run stuffing DT in the 1st. It's critical for the stats, it's just not critical to winning. We need somebody who can rush the qb or who can defend the pass.

[Screeme]

I feel like Liuget and Mebane needed so much covering for, it took away from what Bosa and Ingram do well. If our line is well rounded, and we have someone on the interior who has to be doubled and accounted for, it makes Bosa and Ingram better. I'm also skeptical of an article that says to be a good D, you can ignore aspects of defense. To be a great D, yards in any form should be a struggle.

I haven't changed my mind that I want Vea. I don't understand why everyone is so down on him. He's strong, athletic, and when I've watched him he just wrecks offensive linemen. He is who we need in the middle of the defense, and will make our edge players better.

[blueman]

I just think Steve is right about him, at the next level he’s a project, his game will need to be changed quite a lot, right down to how he uses those awesome muscles of his. He’ll be okay to start with, and hopefully way better in a couple years. IMHO. Payne looks much more ready now, and should have a similar ceiling.

[Steve]

Go back and watch Vea.

Vea lets the OL fire off the line and catches them, and then sheds the block. Only after all that, does he start to run down the RB or QB. How many NFL RB and QB are going to let a 330lb DT run them down?

NFL DT that make plays fire off the line and attack the blockers, hitting a gap and filling it. You see Vea do a very little bit of that, but he has to do it on every play.

Danny Shelton did much the same thing as Vea when he was in Washington. IT took him 2 years in the NFL before he finally got his hands and feet to work together well enough to be an effective run-down player. Even then Shelton is more of an upfield player than Vea is at similar points. Danny Shelton is a great run down only player who has a similar playing style but is somewhat slower. Shelton will never turn into a pass rusher, even in NE.

Does Vea have the tools to be the next Haloti Ngata? Yes, he might even be a bit better athlete. But Vea is not nearly as far along as Ngata. Ngata was an upfield player who just exploded across the line at Oregon. Vea doesn't even get out of his stance until after Ngata made a lot of his plays. I get the comparisons, they are both Somoan and similar sizes, but Ngata was a far better player and technician than Vea is.

Da'Ron Payne is never going to be a 10-15 sack a year guy, but he spent a lot of time in team's backfield. He keeps his LB clean, holds at the point of attack, and can get penetration to disrupt the running game and push the middle of the pocket vs the pass. He isn't going to get a ton of sacks, but he gets a lot of pressures on the QB. Runs stunts with the LB and DE as part of the Alabama pressure package. Plays hard on every down and is an all-day guy. Can play along the line in pursuit. Reminds me of a young Reuben Davis, isn't going to get sacks himself, but often pushes the middle of the pocket to help the DE, or finishes off the QB if the DE make the QB step up. He steadily got better and better and really played well against Clemson and Georgia. He plays like an NFL player with a disruptive attack of the OL and knocks them back off the ball.

Hurst is the quickness, penetrating tackle. He can beat OL off the line or uses leverage to fight through blocks. Can be beaten physically, but it is not an all game long thing. When a guy jacks him up, he adjusts and gets back into the game. Is surprisingly strong and plays with really good leverage. Is not at as much of a disadvantage against the run as people suggest because of his lack of size. Has some size limitations, but not as bad as some people suggest. Very disruptive as a run defender and simply causes some running teams to "turtle up" on their running game because of the negative yards. Good pass rusher who will get better as he learns to use his hands.

[richpjr]

Would you rather have Payne or Hurst?

[Screeme]

I mean, I don't have any game tape to watch.. just highlight reels, which are pretty biased. im the first to admit, I'm not an expert at this. I rely on the impression I get from whatching Saturdays and a handful of media sources that have proven reliable over the many years I've followed the draft. I'm just saying, I watched him destroy people. Maybe you're right about the time it will take, but his ceiling is much higher than the other DTs. I almost feel like if we can't grab Vea at 17, we may as well grab VanderEsch or Evans.. and take Nnadi or Settle in the second.. because the drop isn't as far.