2019 Draft Prospects To Keep An Eye On

[Topcat]

One of the things this thread is highlighting is the college production vs NFL production. There are some players and some stats that translate well to the NFL from college and some that do not.

Watch Dex Lawrence and see how he plays. Do you really think he can go after and catch QB in the NFL? Does he get quick pressure on the QB? Some players who are very effective in college simply cannot make the jump to the NFL. It is faster and quicker and there are a lot more instinctive players.

When I watch Dex Lawrence, he does make plays by forcing the QB off the mark and then finishes up the QB some when his teammates get the QB to scramble. How often do you see plays like that, in the same kind of time frame in the NFL? I know what his stats say, that he can force the QB off his mark and into the arms of another pass rusher. Maybe he is quick/fast enough to do some of that in the NFL. But to me, it looks like he is slow enough that he won't get there/do it in the NFL. Maybe I am wrong, but what is wrong is just blindly taking the stats and extrapolating them forward without any context. Math/Statistics are languages, but like all language, they need context.

Edwards is a similar sort of players. He really is one of the best coverage LB in college football. But he is slowish and while he has some short area quickness. But as far as making plays, while he makes a ton of plays on the ball (for a LB) those are not what you really want to know. Can he cover well enough in our scheme that the QB throws somewhere else. That is what coverage is, cover the guy so the QB has to make a bad decision or throw away. Edwards is a tackle to tackle thumper who might have it, but you have to account for his movement skills accordingly. Would you be willing to put Edwards at MLB for us, and then ask him to cover Alvin Kamara or Kareem Hunt?

Great points, Steve. When I look at the tape on Edwards, what I see is a player with slightly below average speed, but who seems to be in the right place at the right time MOST of the time. Now, having said that, someone like Kareem Hunt would probably juke Edwards out of his jock with just one quick jump cut, but if Edwards is at Mike LB, he would ideally get help. So Edwards is actually very good at mirroring and moving in on the ball carrier, forcing him to slow down just a tad, and this might be just enough to get help from the Will or Sam, or safety, to make the gang tackle. I also like Edwards's ability to tip or pick passes...very good instincts there. I think he would at least be a very good backup, and potentially could be a starter. His instincts and awareness are very good.

[Topcat]

But how many players are there like that? How many players can develop those skills to be really effective at it?

Why not play more limited players and rotate them? Everyone can have their wet dream fantasies of the ideal 3 down players, but SB history is full of part time players who filled a role and were able to contribute, and win the SB. It is cheaper in terms of draft capital and financially. We want to add some 3 down players at the top, but once you get a bit lower in the draft, better to find someone who is exceptional in one area, and scheme around that skills, rather then have some half assed guy who does everything OK but doesn't excel in any one area.

As far as your evaluation of the Pats, there is a major flaw in it. You are comparing yourself against last years team, not this years. NE is not going to have the same sort of team. They lost Gronk, and they don't have the same kind of roster. He made that whole run pass thing go. A massive inline TE you cannot cover with a LB and who was the among the best blocking TE in football. He was what made that go, and he is no longer in that equation. We proved vs Baltimore that they don't have that same kind of run/pass option on every down. They are the next closest team in terms of having TE who can block and catch, and they are no where close to making it work like NE did. TO beat them, I would be looking for another mid/late round S type who can play in the box and might be a better run stuffer than pure coverage guy

Better yet, how about a mid or late-round box safety, with some meat on his bones to run-stuff those big, 220-lb.+ runningbacks or tackle those big TE's? Someone with at least decent coverage skills but with enough bulk in case a team tries to counter our dime defense with 22 personnel? I'm thinking someone like Mike Bell, Fresno State. He's 6-3, 210, had 87 tackles, 3 picks and 8 passes defensed last year. They could bulk him up even more and play him in the box along with Derwin in the dime defense. Big upgrade over Addae in the dime. He tackles very well AND can cover...

[Boltnut]

Modern defense... nickle and dime. There is a need to go to a 3-man DL at times. But let's remember what that alignment looks like. A NT and 2 DE's that play 4-technique. In these schemes, you're sacrificing your DE's to run-stopping duties, asking them to win 1-on-1 battles or withstanding a double team in run situations. In short, you're asking your 3 DL to occupy 5 O-linemen to free up your LB's to read/fill a run play or be free to drop into coverage. The Patriots will put 4 wide and check into a run play (even at 3rd and 6) if they believe that your NT/DE's are not sturdy enough to stop Sony Michel up the middle. In either case you need your NT to take on 2 OL. Do we have that player? Is 34/35 year old Mebane that player? If I'm running a 3-man front, I'm putting Dexter at NT, Bosa and Jones at 4-tech. If I'm worried about pressure on the QB, then I'm bring heat up the middle with Perryman or Nwosu. What I wouldn't do is try to protect 220 lb Brown/White with a 280 lb rookie 3/5-tech... Be modern, but be smart, too.

How many sacks/pressures did NE's DT's (Brown, Guy, Shelton) get last year...? Combined? One. They brought pressure from outside (Flowers) and up the middle (Van Noy). What those DT's did was occupy blockers and free others to make plays. Don't expect your DT's to chase down Mahommes. Don't expect a rookie 285 lb. 3-tech to defeat veteran IOL. Expect them to get smashed by IOL that are 30 lbs. heavier. Expect them to be briefly doubled/turned. Expect those IOL to get to your fragile MIKE and smaller WILL's.

Modern defenses must take into account modern offenses. And right now, our modern-defensive roster can't account for what is done by modern-offenses. BTW, NE is one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL (54.9% pass).

[Boltjolt]

Modern defense... nickle and dime. There is a need to go to a 3-man DL at times. But let's remember what that alignment looks like. A NT and 2 DE's that play 4-technique. In these schemes, you're sacrificing your DE's to run-stopping duties, asking them to win 1-on-1 battles or withstanding a double team in run situations. In short, you're asking your 3 DL to occupy 5 O-linemen to free up your LB's to read/fill a run play or be free to drop into coverage. The Patriots will put 4 wide and check into a run play (even at 3rd and 6) if they believe that your NT/DE's are not sturdy enough to stop Sony Michel up the middle. In either case you need your NT to take on 2 OL. Do we have that player? Is 34/35 year old Mebane that player? If I'm running a 3-man front, I'm putting Dexter at NT, Bosa and Jones at 4-tech. If I'm worried about pressure on the QB, then I'm bring heat up the middle with Perryman or Nwosu. What I wouldn't do is try to protect 220 lb Brown/White with a 280 lb rookie 3/5-tech... Be modern, but be smart, too.

How many sacks/pressures did NE's DT's (Brown, Guy, Shelton) get last year...? Combined? One. They brought pressure from outside (Flowers) and up the middle (Van Noy). What those DT's did was occupy blockers and free others to make plays. Don't expect your DT's to chase down Mahommes. Don't expect a rookie 285 lb. 3-tech to defeat veteran IOL. Expect them to get smashed by IOL that are 30 lbs. heavier. Expect them to be briefly doubled/turned. Expect those IOL to get to your fragile MIKE and smaller WILL's.

Modern defenses must take into account modern offenses. And right now, our modern-defensive roster can't account for what is done by modern-offenses. BTW, NE is one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL (54.9% pass).

The Patriots didn't have a lot of sacks period. Don't compare us or anyone else to the Patriots, they just have superior coaching and I'm convinced that is the difference.
They have guys that didn't excell anywhere else. Van Noy isn't anything special but for some reason he is good for them. Their sack leader was Flowers with 7.5 and they do this every year with these type of guys. Hearing they are moving Brown to DE.

A 4-3 is not the same as a 3-4 with the DL.

[like54ninjas]

Modern defense... nickle and dime. There is a need to go to a 3-man DL at times. But let's remember what that alignment looks like. A NT and 2 DE's that play 4-technique. In these schemes, you're sacrificing your DE's to run-stopping duties, asking them to win 1-on-1 battles or withstanding a double team in run situations. In short, you're asking your 3 DL to occupy 5 O-linemen to free up your LB's to read/fill a run play or be free to drop into coverage. The Patriots will put 4 wide and check into a run play (even at 3rd and 6) if they believe that your NT/DE's are not sturdy enough to stop Sony Michel up the middle. In either case you need your NT to take on 2 OL. Do we have that player? Is 34/35 year old Mebane that player? If I'm running a 3-man front, I'm putting Dexter at NT, Bosa and Jones at 4-tech. If I'm worried about pressure on the QB, then I'm bring heat up the middle with Perryman or Nwosu. What I wouldn't do is try to protect 220 lb Brown/White with a 280 lb rookie 3/5-tech... Be modern, but be smart, too.

How many sacks/pressures did NE's DT's (Brown, Guy, Shelton) get last year...? Combined? One. They brought pressure from outside (Flowers) and up the middle (Van Noy). What those DT's did was occupy blockers and free others to make plays. Don't expect your DT's to chase down Mahommes. Don't expect a rookie 285 lb. 3-tech to defeat veteran IOL. Expect them to get smashed by IOL that are 30 lbs. heavier. Expect them to be briefly doubled/turned. Expect those IOL to get to your fragile MIKE and smaller WILL's.

Modern defenses must take into account modern offenses. And right now, our modern-defensive roster can't account for what is done by modern-offenses. BTW, NE is one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL (54.9% pass).

If we are looking for a run stuffing big man that can reset the hold/reset LOS, does it have to be Dexter? Can we get that rotational guy in a later round? Guys that can give snaps at multiple positions?

Wren, Rush, Alexander, Mack, Tiuli, Gaines, Chris Nelson, Watts

Lots of ways to build a roster. I enjoy reading all of the different takes, views, prospect evals, and way to improve our BOLTS.

[Boltnut]

The Patriots didn't have a lot of sacks period. Don't compare us or anyone else to the Patriots, they just have superior coaching and I'm convinced that is the difference.
They have guys that didn't excell anywhere else. Van Noy isn't anything special but for some reason he is good for them. Their sack leader was Flowers with 7.5 and they do this every year with these type of guys. Hearing they are moving Brown to DE.

A 4-3 is not the same as a 3-4 with the DL.

I wasn't really comparing NE's D to ours. I was trying to respond to Steve's post where he questioned whether Dexter could chase down QB's and provide pressure up the middle. I was trying to show that pressure doesn't have to come from your DT's (ala NE). NE employs a "system" first and foremost. They find/draft players that fit that system. That's why they're able to succeed with players that other teams don't value. Value is in the eye of the beholder. Some don't believe Dexter fits our "system". Therefor, they don't see his value @28. Example: "If he can't provide pass rush from the 1-tech/3-tech, he can't help us..." IMO, this isn't true. Woody points out that "modern" 4-3 defenses often employ 3-down linemen in nickle/dime formations... and he's absolutely correct. Bringing in extra DB's or cover LB's requires subbing out DL and thumper LB's. But people also have to acknowledge that your 3 down lineman operate differently in those formations, too. They operate more closely to 3-4 techniques/assignments than 4-3 techniques/assignments.

BTW, per Gus, we operate our 4-3 with 3-4 elements. In many cases, the 3-4 and 4-3 are not that different... especially how we run it in 4-3 under/over schemes. IMO, Dexter would help us flip back and forth easily between 3-4 and 4-3 philosophies. Would make us much harder to scheme against. Our defense last year was easy pickings for the Patriots... especially when we had to commit to playing zone coverage. Why were we in zone coverage? Personnel. Had we been able to defend the run with better/fewer DL against NE... I think we would have seen different pass coverage. We just didn't have the horses along the DL. Having Perryman hurt didn't help. But does anyone count on Perryman being healthy all year long...? Better find a solution to that problem without having to draft MIKE in the first-half of the draft. We have bigger needs at FS/OT/DL... Why not address 2 needs with one pick?

[Boltnut]

If we are looking for a run stuffing big man that can reset the hold/reset LOS, does it have to be Dexter? Can we get that rotational guy in a later round? Guys that can give snaps at multiple positions?

Wren, Rush, Alexander, Mack, Tiuli, Gaines, Chris Nelson, Watts

Lots of ways to build a roster. I enjoy reading all of the different takes, views, prospect evals, and way to improve our BOLTS.

Wren is not a run stuffer. He's a 3-tech who can shoot gaps but will not hold up well against double teams. In many cases will get beat by NFL guards single-handedly in the run game. Better question is: can we find interior pass rush without drafting another 3-tech that becomes a liability in the rush defense? Of these guys listed, Mack and Gaines are your best "run stuffers". But in no way are they as strong/versatile as Lawrence. Lawrence did so much more for Clemson than "run-stuff". Don't let sack stats be your only guide. Go watch 6 or 7 game tapes of Dexter's. Go watch analysis/film study done by a guy that understands OL/DL assignments. Voch Lombardi understands OL/DL better than most. His analysis is short and sweet on Big Dex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXHPylXOz4E

Here's another. Voch is doing film study on Garrett Bradbury, but Bradbury is playing against Clemson's D.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyjA7KxNBjI

[Formula 21]

Modern defense... nickle and dime. There is a need to go to a 3-man DL at times. But let's remember what that alignment looks like. A NT and 2 DE's that play 4-technique. In these schemes, you're sacrificing your DE's to run-stopping duties, asking them to win 1-on-1 battles or withstanding a double team in run situations. In short, you're asking your 3 DL to occupy 5 O-linemen to free up your LB's to read/fill a run play or be free to drop into coverage. The Patriots will put 4 wide and check into a run play (even at 3rd and 6) if they believe that your NT/DE's are not sturdy enough to stop Sony Michel up the middle. In either case you need your NT to take on 2 OL. Do we have that player? Is 34/35 year old Mebane that player? If I'm running a 3-man front, I'm putting Dexter at NT, Bosa and Jones at 4-tech. If I'm worried about pressure on the QB, then I'm bring heat up the middle with Perryman or Nwosu. What I wouldn't do is try to protect 220 lb Brown/White with a 280 lb rookie 3/5-tech... Be modern, but be smart, too.

How many sacks/pressures did NE's DT's (Brown, Guy, Shelton) get last year...? Combined? One. They brought pressure from outside (Flowers) and up the middle (Van Noy). What those DT's did was occupy blockers and free others to make plays. Don't expect your DT's to chase down Mahommes. Don't expect a rookie 285 lb. 3-tech to defeat veteran IOL. Expect them to get smashed by IOL that are 30 lbs. heavier. Expect them to be briefly doubled/turned. Expect those IOL to get to your fragile MIKE and smaller WILL's.

Modern defenses must take into account modern offenses. And right now, our modern-defensive roster can't account for what is done by modern-offenses. BTW, NE is one of the most balanced offenses in the NFL (54.9% pass).

And if all your DTs do is occupy blockers, that's a late round guy, not a first rounder.

[powderblueboy]

The Patriots didn't have a lot of sacks period. Don't compare us or anyone else to the Patriots, they just have superior coaching and I'm convinced that is the difference.
They have guys that didn't excell anywhere else. Van Noy isn't anything special but for some reason he is good for them. Their sack leader was Flowers with 7.5 and they do this every year with these type of guys. Hearing they are moving Brown to DE.

A 4-3 is not the same as a 3-4 with th

It has nothing to do with superior coaching - its a Patriot priority.
"First, stop the run; and then have some fun" was a slogan a Pat player was telling others during some sideline exchange.
Bellichick has always had the big pluggers at DT.

Everyone mouths platitudes about stopping the run, but the Patriots are the few that are serious about it.
Stop the run and you can start getting creative.
:disco:

[powderblueboy]

I just wanted to put in the disco gif. You can ignore the message.

[powderblueboy]

Wren is not a run stuffer. He's a 3-tech who can shoot gaps but will not hold up well against double teams. In many cases will get beat by NFL guards single-handedly in the run game. Better question is: can we find interior pass rush without drafting another 3-tech that becomes a liability in the rush defense? Of these guys listed, Mack and Gaines are your best "run stuffers". But in no way are they as strong/versatile as Lawrence. Lawrence did so much more for Clemson than "run-stuff". Don't let sack stats be your only guide. Go watch 6 or 7 game tapes of Dexter's. Go watch analysis/film study done by a guy that understands OL/DL assignments. Voch Lombardi understands OL/DL better than most. His analysis is short and sweet on Big Dex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXHPylXOz4E

Here's another. Voch is doing film study on Garrett Bradbury, but Bradbury is playing against Clemson's D.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyjA7KxNBjI

Lawrence is a lot better than Malcom Brown, someone the Patriots drafted at the end of the first round.

[Boltjolt]

It has nothing to do with superior coaching - its a Patriot priority.
"First, stop the run; and then have some fun" was a slogan a Pat player was telling others during some sideline exchange.
Bellichick has always had the big pluggers at DT.

Everyone mouths platitudes about stopping the run, but the Patriots are the few that are serious about it.
Stop the run and you can start getting creative.
:disco:

The Patriots were behind us in rush defense and averaging 4.9 YPC against them. Their defense wasnt that good most the year but it got better come playoff time. And i DO think its coaching. Always said coaching matters and Bellichick is just the best. Look what Lynn did with McCoys team. Coaching matters. Whatever it is, making sure everyone does their jobs, he has a team structure, leadership...whatever it is, they win every year even with scrubs like Matt Cassell at QB and then Cassell did NOTHING elsewhere.