Bolts: Not That Good Of A Defense?

[Xenos]

This has probably been mentioned already since I didn’t really read through the entire thread but we really need the interior DLs like Justin Jones and especially Jerry Tillery to step up in the run stopping and pass rush area. We don’t need sacks but just collapse the pocket enough for Bosa and Ingram to do their thing. Or even help hurry the QB to force them to throw to our hungry secondary.

[like54ninjas]

This has probably been mentioned already since I didn’t really read through the entire thread but we really need the interior DLs like Justin Jones and especially Jerry Tillery to step up in the run stopping and pass rush area. We don’t need sacks but just collapse the pocket enough for Bosa and Ingram to do their thing. Or even help hurry the QB to force them to throw to our hungry secondary.

It’s been said yet can’t be said enough.

[Steve]

Your comparison is in no way an apple to apples comparison. The big thing the LB run away with is tackles. But they are only getting a ton of tackles because they are lined up closer to the ball and playing what amounts to 100% of the snaps. The more a player is on the field, the more tackles they get, particularly if they are in the middle of the field. And for the most part, there are a lot of pretty average players who get HUGE tackles numbers. Our own Nick Vigil is a big tackle producer for Cinci, who then let him walk and we signed him as a backup after he got 111 tackles. That doesn't even include the pile hopper part of the tackles stat, which is an argument in and of itself.

The other thing that is silly about this is that we don't have any of these players. There is a real shortage of good LB, and it is taking more and more draft capital or FA dollars to get players who are not making impact plays. Again, in my book an impact play is a play that has a chance to change a game, which is generally int, pbu, sacks/hurries/hits

A better way to look at it is
db vs LB.png This is the raw data, for the morbidly curious. These are the career stats for each player. At the end of the spreadsheet is the number of snaps.


db vs LB_norm.png
This is the normalized version. I took the number of defensive snaps and divided by 1000 to make an approximate season. Normally defenses play about 1100 snaps in a year, but not everyone is on for all 1100, so normally 1000 is a "full time player". Then I divided the stats by the number of season. This compensates for more production for playing more seasons, and for more snaps within a season. The column that is partially cut off TOTAL, is the addition of regular reception yards and YAC, then divided by the number of receptions given up. But in neither case Y/rec or the TOTAL, is the difference between the DB and LB significant.

There is nothing here that really stands out. Part of it is because run defense is a team sport, and no one players stats tells you anything about the defense overall. some of the best single season tackle totals went to good MLB on bad teams who got run on play after play, and they couldn't get off the field.

The sacks stats look more impressive for the LB, but you have to remember the ones who play in schemes that blitz are the ones that have the good looking totals. And all of those totals is putrid compared to even a part time DL.

the anlytics crowd has proven time and time again, that pass coverage is generally more important than run defense. Teams do need to be decent at run d, but mostly just to put them in a position to get the ball back at the end of a game.

I spreadsheet's color formatting to rank the categories. In each case, the green is the more "favorable" For things like tackles pass rush, int and tackles, bigger numbers are better. For things like yards given up, and completion percentage, lower numbers are better.

The thing to keep in mind is that NFL offenses really decide what defenses are being played. Over 60% of the NFL's snaps last year, offenses were in 11 personnel. So, unless you think the LB can run with a top 10 TE, all the new wave of RB 200 lb pass catching RB, and/or a WR, that is who our LB, whoever they are, are going to have to cover. You can stick to your baloney about size being everything, but DB make plays all the time on big WR, and there is precious little difference between a 6'4" WR who goes 230lb and most of the 6'4" and 6'5" TE coming out of college, except that most of the college TE are horrible route runners, who can't block. 12 and 21 personnel percentages are up a bit, but there are so few teams that have the personnel, that I don't see it changing too much anytime soon.

And on that last note, it is worth remembering that GB did a good job inside vs SF in the playoffs this year. But they got beat outside and offtackle all day long, and got their asses kicked because they were too damn slow. Fans may not have taken notice about that game, but almost every run first coach in the country is excited about the idea of putting the outside runs back in the game, and slow footed LB are not going to cut it.

[Xenos]

like54ninjas and Steve debating and arguing like it should always be on this forum. Good analysis and back and forth gentlemen. This was worth going back to read again.

[wu-dai clan]

like54ninjas and Steve debating and arguing like it should always be on this forum. Good analysis and back and forth gentlemen. This was worth going back to read again.

They help us all become smarter fans,
and it is much appreciated.

even though they are both wrong hahahaha...

[like54ninjas]

NFL's top nine defenses in 2020: Chargers, Bills, 49ers all loaded, but who's No. 1?

Published: Aug 18, 2020 at 03:02 PM
Adam Schein

NFL.com Contributing Columnist

Palmer: One player who 'changes everything' for Chargers defense


• TOP NINE OFFENSES
• TOP NINE DEFENSES

You know what they say ... "Defense wins championships." Or, in 2020, "Just get the damn ball back to our high-powered offense."

Last week, I identified the NFL's nine best offenses heading into this season. Today, let's take this discussion over to the less glamorous side of the ball.

First, I'd like to give some love to a couple units that didn't make the cut. Seattle and Indianapolis finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense last season, but I think both will be far stingier in 2020. I have high hopes for the Seahawks' defense after the Jamal Adams trade. Speaking of blockbuster deals, DeForest Buckner's relocation to Indianapolis sure changes the Colts' D-line. Darius Leonard, with a clean bill of health, is going to stuff the stat sheet playing behind Indy's new game wrecker up front. Honestly, if my last name rhymed with 10, the Colts would be one of the teams listed below. But alas, that's not the case. So, without further ado ...

Here is my prediction for this season's best defenses, Schein Nine style:

Rank
1
Los Angeles Chargers

I've been hot on this unit all offseason. Gus Bradley's a tremendous defensive coordinator, and the man has a wealth of talent -- on all three levels -- at his disposal.




It all begins with Derwin James, who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2018 -- earning first-team All-Pro honors with 98 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 picks and 13 passes defensed -- only to have his 2019 campaign largely wiped out by an offseason foot injury. Now the safety's back to full health, and this is everything for the Bolts. L.A.'s secondary is loaded and highly versatile -- with free-agent addition Chris Harris Jr. joining multi-talented cover men Casey Hayward and Desmond King -- but James is the straw who stirs the drink. The Swiss Army Knife of the unit, James is a playmaking star who contributes to every single component of this defense, from the pass rush to run support to coverage. His injury last August let the air out of this group's proverbial balloon. How impactful is No. 33? Well, as detailed in a "bold predictions" Schein Nine earlier this offseason, I could see James winning the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year award. He's thatdynamic. And the back end isn't the only imposing level of this defense.




I loved the Kenneth Murray pick in April's draft. The first-rounder sounds like the total package at linebacker: a tone-setter with all the tangibles and intangibles you'd want. And he steps into a pretty ideal situation as a rookie MLB, with the aforementioned coverage group in the back end and a terrific tandem rushing the passer up front. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram offer premium juice off the edges. Bosa's a bona fide star, completely worthy of his new $135 million contract. Only one problem: Now Ingram wants more loot. That's a first world problem GM Tom Telesco will have to smooth over.




Philip Rivers has left the building, but the Chargers' defense is chock-full of established talent. Look for Bradley to field a dominant unit.

[FoutsFan]

NFL's top nine defenses in 2020: Chargers, Bills, 49ers all loaded, but who's No. 1?

Published: Aug 18, 2020 at 03:02 PM
Adam Schein

NFL.com Contributing Columnist

Palmer: One player who 'changes everything' for Chargers defense


• TOP NINE OFFENSES
• TOP NINE DEFENSES

You know what they say ... "Defense wins championships." Or, in 2020, "Just get the damn ball back to our high-powered offense."

Last week, I identified the NFL's nine best offenses heading into this season. Today, let's take this discussion over to the less glamorous side of the ball.

First, I'd like to give some love to a couple units that didn't make the cut. Seattle and Indianapolis finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense last season, but I think both will be far stingier in 2020. I have high hopes for the Seahawks' defense after the Jamal Adams trade. Speaking of blockbuster deals, DeForest Buckner's relocation to Indianapolis sure changes the Colts' D-line. Darius Leonard, with a clean bill of health, is going to stuff the stat sheet playing behind Indy's new game wrecker up front. Honestly, if my last name rhymed with 10, the Colts would be one of the teams listed below. But alas, that's not the case. So, without further ado ...

Here is my prediction for this season's best defenses, Schein Nine style:

Rank
1
Los Angeles Chargers

I've been hot on this unit all offseason. Gus Bradley's a tremendous defensive coordinator, and the man has a wealth of talent -- on all three levels -- at his disposal.




It all begins with Derwin James, who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2018 -- earning first-team All-Pro honors with 98 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 picks and 13 passes defensed -- only to have his 2019 campaign largely wiped out by an offseason foot injury. Now the safety's back to full health, and this is everything for the Bolts. L.A.'s secondary is loaded and highly versatile -- with free-agent addition Chris Harris Jr. joining multi-talented cover men Casey Hayward and Desmond King -- but James is the straw who stirs the drink. The Swiss Army Knife of the unit, James is a playmaking star who contributes to every single component of this defense, from the pass rush to run support to coverage. His injury last August let the air out of this group's proverbial balloon. How impactful is No. 33? Well, as detailed in a "bold predictions" Schein Nine earlier this offseason, I could see James winning the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year award. He's thatdynamic. And the back end isn't the only imposing level of this defense.




I loved the Kenneth Murray pick in April's draft. The first-rounder sounds like the total package at linebacker: a tone-setter with all the tangibles and intangibles you'd want. And he steps into a pretty ideal situation as a rookie MLB, with the aforementioned coverage group in the back end and a terrific tandem rushing the passer up front. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram offer premium juice off the edges. Bosa's a bona fide star, completely worthy of his new $135 million contract. Only one problem: Now Ingram wants more loot. That's a first world problem GM Tom Telesco will have to smooth over.




Philip Rivers has left the building, but the Chargers' defense is chock-full of established talent. Look for Bradley to field a dominant unit.

Nice piece. I have a feeling that Adderley will be a star in the making this year. By seasons end I think that kid is going to be special once he gets on the field.

[like54ninjas]

Nice piece. I have a feeling that Adderley will be a star in the making this year. By seasons end I think that kid is going to be special once he gets on the field.

Still think Thornhill should have been the pick but Nasir was a top 35 prospect for me with an All-Pro skillset. A healthy season = a monster season. We will see a lot of 3-DS .10 this year.

[sonorajim]

I don't think it has been a point of emphasis in our discussions, But -
The Chargers D is practicing against a mobile QB every day who has an excellent receiving and very good RB group.
It would seem that we'll be better prepared vs our principal div opponent.

[dmac_bolt]

Nice piece. I have a feeling that Adderley will be a star in the making this year. By seasons end I think that kid is going to be special once he gets on the field.

Roger that. We have not had a centerfield safety that could run down a mid-deep route like him in ... ok, i don’t remember.
he will free James up to punish skill players all over the field

[21&500]

The middle of our defense by the bye week will be

Joseph Tillery
Murray
Adderley

good luck on any team like the Ravens that depend on the middle

[sonorajim]

This has probably been mentioned already since I didn’t really read through the entire thread but we really need the interior DLs like Justin Jones and especially Jerry Tillery to step up in the run stopping and pass rush area. We don’t need sacks but just collapse the pocket enough for Bosa and Ingram to do their thing. Or even help hurry the QB to force them to throw to our hungry secondary.

Yup. I expect Joseph & Jones to either spend a lot of time in the pocket or occupy blockers that would have otherwise been annoying Bosa & Melvin.
Out starting DL is better than their OL. Poor them.
Tillery, Square & Broughton provide DT depth / rotation. Hopefully Tillery has located his manhood & will be more than an expensive backup.