Before We All Jump On The Justin Herbert Hype Train...

[gzubeck]

If true, Telesco kept it quiet after the draft. Telesco usually says so and so was at the top of our draft board.

I am so happy that we didn't draft Tua...there was more that could go wrong with that pick than could go right! Where's Tua in Miami's starting line-up?

[jubei]

Every player in every professional sport has said the following.... There is practice speed, preseason speed, regular-season speed, and playoff speed. Burrow and Herbert had to completely skip preseason speed this year. It really is a testament to their talent to even look decent without a preseason.

not to mention practice speed has been severely limited methinks, with the 'rona. But these 2 QBs are looking pretty darn good for their franchises.

[JustAnotherFan]

I am a numbers guy.
For quarterbacks, I like ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating, because it takes into account passing and rushing, turnovers, etc, and discounts garbage time stats.

Right now, after week 3, (only 2 weeks for Herbert), Herbert has a QBR of 65.6, good for 15th in the NFL.

The next highest rookie is Joe Burrow, 51.6, good for 23rd in the NFL.

Yes, Herbert has lost both his starts, but this tells me he is playing VERY much above what one can expect as a rookie, particularly as he only had 1st team reps in practice for one week.

I know some of you blame him for the losses, i.e. turnovers, but a rating of 65.6 means he did far more to help his team win, than he did to make them lose.

Ok, I AM ready to jump on the Herbert Train!


P.S.
QBR is still a raw stat, it takes a few more weeks before they can adjust them for defensive ability of opponents.

[beachcomber]

https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2020/9/30/21495414/justin-herbert-pff-advanced-stats-grade-chargers-rookies

given that the some of you, i.e. Bolt Jolt, had some concerns w/Herbert coming out of college, how do you think he's faring considering the above commentary ??

will say that his YAC accolades could well be due to him getting the ball to his pass catchers in stride, and it seems he is more than willing/capable of throwing to the middle of the field as well, and of which some claim that is an area that Taylor is rather averse to throwing into ??

and we all know he's got an arm, but so far the completions haven't come for him on the longballs ??

his inefficiency on play action can prolly be attributed to his lack of preseason/preparation, as know that some marvel @guys like Rodgers, when they swear you can't tell the difference as to whether AR is handing off or running play action.... something for JH10 to aspire to.

against Tampa, you just know that regardless of how good their run D might B, that AL is still gonna do his darnedest to establish the run, and would surmise he is gonna be hesitant to give Herbert the green light for the longball as he abhors the possibility of the turnover, and not to mention that Herbert has been so inefficient to date going long.

so what to do ?? how would you attack the Tampa Bay D ?? apparently they've got the personnel to stick w/Henry over the middle.... do they have enough to double down on Keenan ??

are we gonna be without MW as well ??

my suspicion as to our best bet at surprising Tampa is to come out running the ball.... w/our QB, and hit 'em hard and oft w/a steady diet of the both of Guyton and KJ Hill.

I think Tampa shuts down the run and takes the both of Henry and Keenan outta the game.... the aforementioned is what we've got left to work w/and.... hopefully that's enough ??

[Maniaque 6]

I think J. Jackson will play and make a big difference.

[Boltjolt]

https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2020/9/30/21495414/justin-herbert-pff-advanced-stats-grade-chargers-rookies

given that the some of you, i.e. Bolt Jolt, had some concerns w/Herbert coming out of college, how do you think he's faring considering the above commentary ??

will say that his YAC accolades could well be due to him getting the ball to his pass catchers in stride, and it seems he is more than willing/capable of throwing to the middle of the field as well, and of which some claim that is an area that Taylor is rather averse to throwing into ??

and we all know he's got an arm, but so far the completions haven't come for him on the longballs ??

his inefficiency on play action can prolly be attributed to his lack of preseason/preparation, as know that some marvel @guys like Rodgers, when they swear you can't tell the difference as to whether AR is handing off or running play action.... something for JH10 to aspire to.

against Tampa, you just know that regardless of how good their run D might B, that AL is still gonna do his darnedest to establish the run, and would surmise he is gonna be hesitant to give Herbert the green light for the longball as he abhors the possibility of the turnover, and not to mention that Herbert has been so inefficient to date going long.

so what to do ?? how would you attack the Tampa Bay D ?? apparently they've got the personnel to stick w/Henry over the middle.... do they have enough to double down on Keenan ??

are we gonna be without MW as well ??

my suspicion as to our best bet at surprising Tampa is to come out running the ball.... w/our QB, and hit 'em hard and oft w/a steady diet of the both of Guyton and KJ Hill.

I think Tampa shuts down the run and takes the both of Henry and Keenan outta the game.... the aforementioned is what we've got left to work w/and.... hopefully that's enough ??

I think he has done better than i expected. I did not read that article, just going to write what i think of him so far.

I did have concerns. His footwork was awful and he hurried throws making his accuracy not too good above 10 yards and got worse the longer they were and stats showed (by a poster) he wasnt that great there.

He still isnt doing great in that area as many of his throws have sailed on him but i think he is a little better in that area.
I have high hopes for him and getting good coaching i think he can be a good one. He has made some rookie mistakes but we all knew that would happen.
He does have a very arm which is nice , but ive always said that isnt the most important thing.....to me anyways.

He isnt running as much as i thought he might. Not that i want us to a have a Cam Newton as we dont want him beat up like Cam was. But i do think he should take his spots to run a little more often....like on that INT he threw in triple coverage.

Im not worried about him right now. I think he will get better and his footwork will be as well and he will be fine.

EDIT...i did read a few lines in that article afterwards. The writer said a 69.5 completion % is borderline ave. This is why i dont read BFTB. Dumb comment as Herbert is a rookie and many vet QBs who are good dont have a 69.5% rate.
Dak 67%
Matt Ryan 62.5%
Rodger 67%
Watson 67.4%
'Big Ben 67%
Wentz 59%
Mahomes 67.8%

Brees is at 70%
Rivers 78%
Goff 70%
Bridgewater 74%...inflated it against us as usual

That writer is on crack

[jubei]

69.5% is borderline avg? I'd think once you hit low to mid 60's is avg. Brees will always be high because he doesnt take too many long shots and it seems that O is all about the short quick throws.

One thing I've noticed with Justin is that his swing passes to his RBs are spot on and lead them beautifully. I cant count how many times Rivers swing passes were a bit behind the RB and they had to adjust/slow down.

[21&500]

69.5% is borderline avg? I'd think once you hit low to mid 60's is avg. Brees will always be high because he doesnt take too many long shots and it seems that O is all about the short quick throws.

One thing I've noticed with Justin is that his swing passes to his RBs are spot on and lead them beautifully. I cant count how many times Rivers swing passes were a bit behind the RB and they had to adjust/slow down.

Noticed that too.
thats basically all he did at Oregon so he’s gotten lots of practice

[jubei]

getting the ball to our RBs out in space is a good thing, especially Ekeler...he just seems to get YAC. IME it also seems Ekeler has developed a bit more wiggle this season and his vision seems to have gotten better as well.

[DontEverGiveUp]

I am a numbers guy.
For quarterbacks, I like ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating, because it takes into account passing and rushing, turnovers, etc, and discounts garbage time stats.

Right now, after week 3, (only 2 weeks for Herbert), Herbert has a QBR of 65.6, good for 15th in the NFL.

The next highest rookie is Joe Burrow, 51.6, good for 23rd in the NFL.

Yes, Herbert has lost both his starts, but this tells me he is playing VERY much above what one can expect as a rookie, particularly as he only had 1st team reps in practice for one week.

I know some of you blame him for the losses, i.e. turnovers, but a rating of 65.6 means he did far more to help his team win, than he did to make them lose.

Ok, I AM ready to jump on the Herbert Train!


P.S.
QBR is still a raw stat, it takes a few more weeks before they can adjust them for defensive ability of opponents.

I'm not speaking on Herbert at all here, but I think ESPN's total QBR is a fake stat. Last I checked (and maybe things have changed since then), there was no known formula, and it relies heavily on ESPN staffers subjectively grading the QB play. I view it more like voting in the NBA slam dunk contest rather than a calculated stat like passer rating (which I know is far from perfect).

ESPN has claimed their QBR is more accurate than traditional passer rating at grading overall QB performances, taking into account how impactful the QB was in giving his team a chance to win. But just about every week you will find wild numbers being thrown out there that contradict ESPN's claims about their trademarked stat.

As for Herbert, if you personally take everything into account - stats, eye test, clutch, surrounding cast, etc - I think most people would objectively agree that Herbert looks pretty good for a rookie. Not setting the world on fire, but far from a bust...and that is with this crazy 2020 off season too.

Unless Herbert totally stinks it up in the next game(s), Lynn would be an absolute fool to put Tyrod back out there. But for some reason, I feel like Herbert will start against the Bucs and Saints and the Chargers will lose. Then Lynn will put Tyrod in to start the Jets game, which the Chargers will win. At that point, everyone's head will explode.

[JustAnotherFan]

I'm not speaking on Herbert at all here, but I think ESPN's total QBR is a fake stat. Last I checked (and maybe things have changed since then), there was no known formula, and it relies heavily on ESPN staffers subjectively grading the QB play. I view it more like voting in the NBA slam dunk contest rather than a calculated stat like passer rating (which I know is far from perfect).

ESPN has claimed their QBR is more accurate than traditional passer rating at grading overall QB performances, taking into account how impactful the QB was in giving his team a chance to win. But just about every week you will find wild numbers being thrown out there that contradict ESPN's claims about their trademarked stat.

Yes, ESPN's Total QBR is proprietary, they do not let anybody know the exact formula.
But as far as I know, it is not subjective, it is based on the next generation stats that the NFL has been generating for several years now.
And as far as I know, it is the only stat that takes into account both running and passing, fumbles and interceptions, penalties, discounts garbage time stats, and takes situations into account. (Like 8 yards on 4th and 9 is bad, but really good on 4th and 7.)

So, it's a stat, thus not perfect, but its by far the best that is out there right now. And it says that Herbert is currently the 15th best QB in terms of in game performance this year.

P.S. QBR has the top 3 right now as Mahomes, Rogers and Wilson, so there is that.

[Caslon]

Herbert being a rookie is still adjusting to the speed of the NFL compared to college and the NFL talent. Being off by 1/2 second is a big difference in the NFL. He'll have to go thru the fire of completing passes on routes involving multiple defenders who are close around his target. No rookie QB hasn't had to go thru the adjustment to the speed of the NFL. He may even cost the Charger some games. So did Fouts and Aikman and others, their rookie year. They stunk a lot of times.