Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[DragonIce]

Your proposed wager misconstrues my view of Palmer and our team.

I am not suggesting that the team does not overvalue Palmer. In fact, I am quite sure that they do overvalue Palmer. They drafted him 1-2 rounds higher than most pundits had him ranked.

So it seems we are down to this:
You agree Palmer will be #3, and will be productive and will replace Williams in 2022, but you feel Staley and Lombardi will be mistaken in playing him so much, and that Palmer's true value is as a #5 bench guy.

I congratulate you on framing a position that can never be empirically/emphatically proven wrong...because we can't do true "A-B" testing on such a proposition. You are teflon, LOL. Did I understand correctly that you are an attorney?

[Guest]

I strongly disagree with your argument. It basically just is that Palmer is bad, and that's a fine argument. I thought that about Pipkins and Herbert when they drafted them. I just disagree with it and I am someone who was not happy with the pick at the time. The premise you are using is that he was a third round pick and the rest of the league probably valued him as a 4th-5th round pick. But your argument is really ignoring the practice reports of the reporters covering the team, a lot of what the coaches have said, and a decent first preseason game. Additionally, you are concerned they will be taking away snaps from Johnson and Guyton. But both those guys were undrafted players. The league didn't even project them the way they projected Palmer. Yes, they each had decent years in the NFL last year and Palmer can this year. There will be plenty of WR reps out there. Guyton, Johnson, and Palmer will all have ample opportunity to earn their targets.

As for Mike Williams - I think you are worrying about things way too much too early. If Palmer is garbage like you think he will be, we still have Guyton and Johnson who may take a step forward. Heck. I'm still waiting for Williams to take a step forward himself. But even if your scenario does play out, Mike Williams finally lives up to his hype, 1,100 yards and 7-10 TDs, the Chargers can sign him long term, franchise him, or go after someone like Allen Robinson for similar money who is a better receiver than Williams.

I agree that I am not valuing practice reports when it comes to Palmer. I tend not to change my draft day views of rookies until I have seen them play something resembling meaningful snaps. My view could change if Palmer plays well against good competition in games, which has not yet happened.

I also agree that Guyton and Johnson were UDFAs, but the difference is that they are proven UDFAs, not just with respect to their own talent, but also with how they fit with Herbert and our other receivers. There is something to be said for the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" argument, especially when comparing to a draft pick reach rookie with no proven NFL success.

To the best of my recollection, I never said Palmer was garbage. I said he is a downgrade from Mike Williams. I said he would be a legitimate #3 WR on some teams, but that given the success of Guyton and Johnson, he should be the #5 WR on our team.

Mike Williams is way better than most on this forum seem to be think. He has been a 1,000 receiver and would put up very good numbers if we did not have the other weapons we have. He is good all around and has one elite trait--the ability to make difficult contested catches in the air. He makes difficult clutch catches and that has value. I am not saying he has played to the fully hoped for value of the #7 overall pick, but he has played like a first round player. He is very good.

Some have tried to compare Palmer's draft situation to that of Allen since they were both drafted in the third round. The comparison is, frankly, horrible. Allen was rated a late first round pick by a number of pundits that dropped some in part due to an injury. He was a steal in round 3 and some stated that at the time. Palmer was a round 4-5 player in the eyes of most that we reached for to get. In that respect, he is kind of the opposite of Allen.

Without seeing the actual performance, I will not say that it is impossible for Palmer to fully replace Williams, but I will say that based upon perceived talent and athletic traits that it is unlikely. Others have argued that other receivers can pick up the slack and I do not disagree, but that means that the overall talent of the WR group decreased and I do not favor that. That is why my view is that if Williams leaves, we need to draft his replacement. Palmer may well have good value as a depth WR, but that is a far cry from a being a suitable replacement for Williams.

[equivocation]

So it seems we are down to this:
You agree Palmer will be #3, and will be productive and will replace Williams in 2022, but you feel Staley and Lombardi will be mistaken in playing him so much, and that Palmer's true value is as a #5 bench guy.

I congratulate you on framing a position that can never be empirically/emphatically proven wrong...because we can't do true "A-B" testing on such a proposition. You are teflon, LOL. Did I understand correctly that you are an attorney?

Well, it can be proven quite wrong, he'll just never admit it or acknowledge it.

Like, if Palmer is consistently putting up 1000 yard seasons by the end of his rookie contract, obviously wrong. Where's the exact bright line between better or worse than Johnson or Guyton? Does it matter? The Black Knight always triumphs!

[Guest]

So it seems we are down to this:
You agree Palmer will be #3, and will be productive and will replace Williams in 2022, but you feel Staley and Lombardi will be mistaken in playing him so much, and that Palmer's true value is as a #5 bench guy.

I congratulate you on framing a position that can never be empirically/emphatically proven wrong...because we can't do true "A-B" testing on such a proposition. You are teflon, LOL. Did I understand correctly that you are an attorney?

And again you are wrong. I think I can easily be proven to be wrong about Palmer as early as this season if I truly am wrong. It is just that your suggested performance levels that would prove that are weak. Any good #3 WR can put up 500+ receiving yards and any decent WR catching short passes can put up a high catch percentage. That is not saying anything at all.

If Palmer can put up at least Tyrell Williams type #3 WR numbers or better, then I would say there is a better chance that I may be wrong about Palmer. But if he only duplicates Guyton's numbers while not providing the same deep threat, then I would say that suggests that the jury is still out on Palmer at best. The problem is that in your suggested factual scenarios, he can produce just like Guyton did and in your world, that somehow means that I am wrong about my view of Palmer. That just does not follow.

[DragonIce]

And again you are wrong. I think I can easily be proven to be wrong about Palmer as early as this season if I truly am wrong.

We've moved from talking football to arguing contract details on what would validate the error of your ways. It's now tedious and boring. Based on your patterns, you'll perpetually move the goalposts as we move along.

If Staley and Lombardi see Palmer as their best choice at #3, I'll side with them...and all the analysts, media reviewers and fans here not named "chaincrusher".

[Guest]

We've moved from talking football to arguing contract details on what would validate the error of your ways. It's now tedious and boring. Based on your patterns, you'll perpetually move the goalposts as we move along.

If Staley and Lombardi see Palmer as their best choice at #3, I'll side with them...and all the analysts, media reviewers and fans here not named "chaincrusher".

I have not moved any goalposts at all. That is pure fiction on your part.

I have said from day one that I think we reached for Palmer. I have said that I think the team should use Palmer as the #5 WR because our deep passing game with Herbert throwing to Guyton and Johnson worked well for us last year.

That said, I have recognized that the team seems to like Palmer as they reached for him in the first place and seem to want to hype him and give him significant snaps. I have never questioned the possibility that the team may actually play Palmer as the #3 WR and may actually use him to replace Williams.

What I have questioned is the wisdom of such decisions should they come to pass.

I think Palmer is generally a #3 WR in terms of talent. I have been very clear about that. However, given our depth at WR and the fit of Guyton and Johnson with Herbert, Palmer should be used as the #5 WR. Also think that of Mike Williams leaves next year, we should draft his placement because Palmer is not as talented as Williams.

All of the has been my view all along.

[DragonIce]

I have not moved any goalposts at all. That is pure fiction on your part.

I have said from day one that I think we reached for Palmer. I have said that I think the team should use Palmer as the #5 WR because our deep passing game with Herbert throwing to Guyton and Johnson worked well for us last year.

That said, I have recognized that the team seems to like Palmer as they reached for him in the first place and seem to want to hype him and give him significant snaps. I have never questioned the possibility that the team may actually play Palmer as the #3 WR and may actually use him to replace Williams.

What I have questioned is the wisdom of such decisions should they come to pass.

I think Palmer is generally a #3 WR in terms of talent. I have been very clear about that. However, given our depth at WR and the fit of Guyton and Johnson with Herbert, Palmer should be used as the #5 WR. Also think that of Mike Williams leaves next year, we should draft his placement because Palmer is not as talented as Williams.

All of the has been my view all along.

Yes you are sliding the goalposts repeatedly. Perhaps you could work w/our field goal kickers to clean up their misses. ;-)

Some months ago your verdict:
-Palmer bad draft pick. Huge reach.

Then your narrative:
-You: Palmer had the talent of a #5

Then another slide this weekend:
-Palmer suddenly has the talent of a #3, but not downfield threat

Reminds one of that old Paul Simon song:

Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away

If a rookie has the talent to be receiver #3 and post 500 yards, and likely supplant Williams (all which you concede) its obvious the pick was a good one. Don't recall we've heard that concession from you.

[captaind]

Yes you are sliding the goalposts repeatedly. Perhaps you could work w/our field goal kickers to clean up their misses. ;-)

Some months ago your verdict:
-Palmer bad draft pick. Huge reach.

Then your narrative:
-You: Palmer had the talent of a #5

Then another slide this weekend:
-Palmer suddenly has the talent of a #3, but not downfield threat

Reminds one of that old Paul Simon song:

Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away

If a rookie has the talent to be receiver #3 and post 500 yards, and likely supplant Williams (all which you concede) its obvious the pick was a good one. Don't recall we've heard that concession from you.

You're wasting your time arguing with Brainy Smurf. He takes a contrary position to majority opinion just for the sake of garnering attention.

[Maniaque 6]

And again you are wrong. I think I can easily be proven to be wrong about Palmer as early as this season if I truly am wrong. It is just that your suggested performance levels that would prove that are weak. Any good #3 WR can put up 500+ receiving yards and any decent WR catching short passes can put up a high catch percentage. That is not saying anything at all.

If Palmer can put up at least Tyrell Williams type #3 WR numbers or better, then I would say there is a better chance that I may be wrong about Palmer. But if he only duplicates Guyton's numbers while not providing the same deep threat, then I would say that suggests that the jury is still out on Palmer at best. The problem is that in your suggested factual scenarios, he can produce just like Guyton did and in your world, that somehow means that I am wrong about my view of Palmer. That just does not follow.

When you have the word WRONG five times in a post, what we should understand ?

[dmac_bolt]

… If a rookie has the talent to be receiver #3 and post 500 yards, and likely supplant Williams (all which you concede) its obvious the pick was a good one. Don't recall we've heard that concession from you.

Remember this is a Telesco 3rd rd pick. If the pick is not an absolute face-planting bust, its a “great” pick for him

[Formula 21]

Looks like Palmer got moved to the “can’t get injured” list. He didn’t play a lot tonight.

[Guest]

Yes you are sliding the goalposts repeatedly. Perhaps you could work w/our field goal kickers to clean up their misses. ;-)

Some months ago your verdict:
-Palmer bad draft pick. Huge reach.

Then your narrative:
-You: Palmer had the talent of a #5

Then another slide this weekend:
-Palmer suddenly has the talent of a #3, but not downfield threat

Reminds one of that old Paul Simon song:

Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away

If a rookie has the talent to be receiver #3 and post 500 yards, and likely supplant Williams (all which you concede) its obvious the pick was a good one. Don't recall we've heard that concession from you.

I thought and still think that Palmer was a big reach and a bad draft pick--no change.

I thought and still think that Palmer should be a #5 WR on our team--no change.

I thought and still think that Palmer has the potential upside of a #3 WR--no change.

I thought and still think Palmer has difficulty gaining separation compared to some other WRs--no change.

I thought and still think that Palmer is not the downfield threat that Guyton and Johnson have repeatedly proven they are--no change.

I have been fairly consistent in my discussion of Palmer. It seems like you are trying awfully hard to try to find some sort of inconsistency that just is not there.

As for the rest of your nonsense, Palmer may take Williams' position because Williams leaves and the team gives Palmer the job, but he will not fully replace Williams. I believe I have been 100% clear in setting forth this position. Because of this, I believe that if Williams leaves, we should draft a replacement for him in next year's draft as I have stated many times. If I thought Palmer was good and could be a good replacement for Williams, I would not be thinking that we need to draft a different WR next year if Williams leaves.

Finally, Guyton had 500+ yards last season, so he should be the clear #3 because he proved he was great last year based upon your analysis, right? Or is it that 500 yards for a #3 WR is not all that special of a result? I think it is the latter and I do not favor Guyton because I think he will be thrown to all of the time. I like him and Johnson because they regularly make big, game changing plays and I believe they do that much better than Palmer does.