Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[Steve]

Palmer is not the same kind of player as T. Williams, so they are hard to compare. Also, people seem to be comparing T. Williams in his final year to rookie year Palmer. Not a very fair comparison in either way.

Williams ended up being a somewhat solid deep ball guy. His weakness was that he was not a great route runner, and he always struggled to fight for the ball. He improved a lot, because as a rookie, if he had to fight for a ball, it was a turnover or incomplete. He was dreadful early on. He only ran a few good routes, where he mostly used his speed to run away from the D. Short crossers or deep stuff off of play action.

Palmer is probably not going to be as good a deep ball receiver as Williams was. He doesn't have to be, unless that is the only role the Chargers are going to consider him for. But we have Johnson, Mike Williams and Guyton who can all fill that role to a certain extent. If you watch most of his passes are the short, timing routes that we have been throwing in preseason. We haven't seen him get used like we really intend to use him, by virtue that everything in preseason is pure vanilla.

[DragonIce]

I think teams are paying PFF for their service, because so many AGENTS are using PFF as a part of their marketing and football operations stuff, but not necessarily for use on the field, expect maybe as a quick look.

BUt as far as the overall PFF articles and scouting they do, when I read their draft stuff, it reads like black magic voodoo stuff. Like I said before, I think guys make up their minds who they like, then cherry pick stats to justify their stance.

A lot of their little studies are not that well thought through and miss some key points. There is a multi-part article that PFF points out that NFL teams overvalue pass rush. They do a lot of stats and hand waving, then seem to forget that modern NFL offenses are DESIGNED to throw the football in 2 or 3 seconds and the QB is not supposed to stay in the pocket and wait no matter what. The reason is that pass rush dictate to the offense how the game is played. You don't need any stats to prove that, it is in the nature of the game, how the game is played, so there is no way to run a statistical test that can remove that. It is inherent in every (passing) play.

As far as being scientific and systematic, in some ways traditional football was way ahead of other sports in terms of analytics. For the last 20 or 30 years, NFL teams spend large portions of their offseasons looking at film, and studying how their season went, and what can they do to improve things. There are things that "analytics" can add to football, but it will never take over from traditional film study. It may become more prominent as teams start to do way more data collection on their own, but I suspect that is what the large staff is doing.

But when it comes down to 4th and 1 or 2, late in the game, late in the season, with the playoffs on the line, teams don't give a shit what the NFL 4th down conversion percentage is. They want to know if they have a specific play to get that 1st down or TD, against the team they are playing or not. It is still going to come down to what plays and formations do they call, to get the matchup against a specific player to get the 1st down/TD.

People are speculating that teams are being taken over by analytics, but since no one has any idea how teams are using analytics in NFL teams, you really don't know.

NFL teams are famous for putting huge amounts of work into ANYTHING they feel will give them an advantage. Every NFL front office, coach and scout realizes that their backup jobs for all but the top 1% (who go into TV) is being a HS gym teacher. Most of these guys will do almost ANYTHING to stay in a game that pays them, and keeps them in the competitive environment (former NFL people are the most competitive people you will ever meet). None of it means that the game has been taken over by analytics. They are certainly using it, but to what degree, and do they use it as a primary thing or secondary?

FWIW, a lot of people are discovering that some of us have been doing a lot of analytics for a lot longer than it has been called analytics. I was encouraged by my employer a few years ago to start taking classes in it, only to discover that we had been doing a lot of "analytics" studies for YEARS before it was ever called analytics. Stuff like all the neural networks in machine learning, was all the rage back in the 90's, and it works well in some areas, and not so well in others. And a lot of science still uses techniques that are not part of analytics and machine learning, because their are other techniques that are a lot better (deterministic systems).

Analytics is a massive topic, though one I love. While I appreciate your thoughts, I think I've started something that doesn't belong in a Josh Palmer thread. Yikes. I'm embarrassed. To be respectful, You are an admin, do you think we might best move this discussion to a dedicated thread? After a re-set I'll try to respond thoughtfully to what you've said here (i.e. shred your post to pieces if I can, LOL). I will also ask, Steve, perhaps, that we proceed in bite-size portions? I'm ADHD, and past my best years. Perhaps we could start with 4th down decision making..or one limited chunk...pls you decide.

[DragonIce]

He's the boulder and we're all Sisyphus. Boulders don't tire.

Post of the Year.

The drag in our co-efficient. The 2nd in our laws of thermodynamics...or as in Breaking Bad:
The Fly in the Machine.

he Wins if he can persist and persist and provide sufficient annoyance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qGZuDYSa-A

[wu-dai clan]

It's ALL Double Doppler...

[Guest]

His size and workout numbers are all extremely similar to CeeDee Lamb and people seem pretty high on that guy's upside. They play a similar game, Palmer is already a better route runner though.

Lamb is quicker than Palmer and simply a better receiver. Lamb was selected at 1-17. Palmer was a big reach at 3-77.

[Guest]

Its obvious Palmer isnt Guyten and they have different skillsets. I do like Guyten but he had drop issues for all his speed and I question his ability to maintain his speed if he has to be in on too many plays. You make him out to be an absolute stud on paper Chain…he just isnt. He was a nice surprise but he is still young and not well developed yet but was a good fit for the deep stretch the field wr role. Is he a plus to the offense absolutely but so will Palmer be when he is in. Palmer is a move the chains WR with less focus on the deep ball that we have seen SO FAR…you have no idea if he is going to not have deeper routes…nostrodamus?

Here is the reality. Palmer and Guyten are not intended to be our #1 or #2 wrs THIS year. That said we have never had both Allen and Williams both play the entire year together so Id bet it sure aint Guyten they will plug into Allen or MWs spot…Guyten just doesnt perform their roles well enough since he is mainly relying on his speed at this point. Is Guyten going to improve sure but he doesnt have enough to step into the short and medium route roles to keep the chains moving which is critical to win TOP and keep our D fresh.

Palmer again last night showed very good hands and that he is reliable and will move the chains. I dont expect he will be getting many snaps unless we have injuries but I like how he plays and his frame and skillset are better suited to sub in for Allen and MW. Guyten I just dont think will take the hits if he has to be in the short and mid routes.

So lets shoot the horse…agree to disagree and root for both of these Charger players.

Your suggestion that I have made Guyton out to be a stud on paper is ridiculous. I have simply noted the inconsistency on the part of blind homers who think that 480 yards for Palmer would justify his pick at 3-77, while ignoring that Guyton had 511 yards yards last year in his first season playing significant snaps as an UDFA.

My prediction is that DBs will get more hands on passes with Palmer on the field. His body is not that big and he regularly does not create separation. He has zero elite traits. The tipped pass in last weekend's preseason game is a foreshadowing what is to come with Palmer on the field. A better defender would have turned that pass into a pick-6.

Further, Palmer did not show very good hands against Seattle. That is absurd. He had a bad drop in last weekend's preseason game, pretty much the opposite of good hands. His hands do not appear to be any better than Guyton's or Johnson's.

I do not see Palmer making the offense better. I see him making the offense worse. The addition of Guyton and Johnson to Allen and Williams and the deep passing game is what made the offense worth watching last year. I do not agree at all that Palmer will help the team move the chains or that it is necessary to play slow to rest the defense. It is the defense's problem if they are so out of shape that they cannot play on the field within regular NFL time of possession ranges. It is the offense's job to score points.

Finally, you do get that Guyton is listed at the same height and two pounds heavier than Palmer, right? So what is this nonsense about Guyton not being able take hits that Palmer can take? It seems like many of you think that Palmer is this big bodied WR. It simply is not true. He is not VJ or Malcom Floyd or Mike Williams. He is smaller than Allen and only the same size as Guyton. He is not a big WR.

[Topcat]

My prediction is that DBs will get more hands on passes with Palmer on the field. His body is not that big and he regularly does not create separation. He has zero elite traits. The tipped pass in last weekend's preseason game is a foreshadowing what is to come with Palmer on the field. A better defender would have turned that pass into a pick-6.

That pass to Palmer was a poor choice by Daniel...and I've noticed that about Daniel...that he has a bad habit of forcing the rock into coverage...

[Guest]

Guyton was pretty damn good last year. As was Johnson.

Here’s the thing: this WR3 idea has got to go. The better way to conceptualize the WRs in this scheme is to think about them in packages. We’ve been hearing it over and over. There will be possession packages, stretch packages, red zone packages, goal line packages, and mixed packages. Skill sets will determine packages. Game situations will determine WR usage, not some imagined pecking order.

I know we’ll never push this boulder to the top of the mountain, but at least it’s decent exercise.

I agree that the WRs will be seen in packages. The problem is that there is only one ball. Snaps and targets for Palmer cut into snaps and targets for other WRs. Unless we draft an elite WR prospect, the snaps and targets for Guyton and Johnson should not be reduced. If anything, Guyton's targets should be about the same and Johnson's targets should be increased as should Parham's out of the TE position.

I do not see any passing situations in which I would rather have Palmer on the field than Guyton and/or Johnson. That is the problem. It appears as if some think Palmer is a big bodied possession WR. He is not that big--actually listed as the same size as Guyton. And I would rather have Guyton and/or Johnson in on those plays anyway so defenses cannot cheat in the short passing area.

Yes, we need another WR if Mike Williams leaves, but it should be someone that can actually fully replace Mike Williams at a minimum. Improving upon Mike Williams would be ideal. I do not believe that Palmer is anywhere close to being that level of player. I do not see any elite traits in Palmer. And teams do not get better by getting worse.

[Guest]

That pass to Palmer was a poor choice by Daniel...and I've noticed that about Daniel...that he has a bad habit of forcing the rock into coverage...

It was a poor choice because Palmer was covered. I think that is the point.

[Topcat]

It was a poor choice because Palmer was covered. I think that is the point.

On the other hand, Palmer usually gets pretty good separation...the true test will be to see how well Palmer does vs. the STARTERS on opposing teams, as opposed to BACKUPS...

[CivilBolt]

On the other hand, Palmer usually gets pretty good separation...the true test will be to see how well Palmer does vs. the STARTERS on opposing teams, as opposed to BACKUPS...

What’s going to help him is that the opposing team’s top DBs will focus on Allen and MDub.

[Guest]

On the other hand, Palmer usually gets pretty good separation...the true test will be to see how well Palmer does vs. the STARTERS on opposing teams, as opposed to BACKUPS...

I am not sure what you are seeing when you state that Palmer "gets pretty good separation". He is the worst of our top 5 WRs at gaining separation. Unless the defense is playing way off of Palmer and Palmer runs a quick, short route, he is routinely covered. To Palmer's credit, I think he does a good job of using his body, but the defenders seem to be right on him, which is my concern.