Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[DragonIce]

Speaking of initial wrong takes lol:

"Josh Palmer is not going to make an impact in 2021."

"One thing is absolutely certain with Josh Palmer. It was a mistake for the LA Chargers to draft Josh Palmer with the 77th pick."

https://boltbeat.com/2021/05/11/la-c...almer-mistake/

Yuuup.

As a Cowboys fan I remember going ballistic when Dallas drafted Travis Frederick. "He's so slow," I said, "Can't get to the second level." "Centers shouldn't go in the first round." Wow was I wrong. The guy was such a natural baller he could block well down the field. He was wicked smart, a master of leverage, and really was the anchor of the "Great Wall" which tore up the league for some years.

Sometimes, just sometimes the teams know a bit more than fans. The stubborn hubris of *certain* fans is really an embarrassment. You understand people missing on players --we're human and it's hard to evaluate, but to keep getting it wrong and double down...

[like54ninjas]

[gzubeck]

I'm going to laugh really hard when Palmer gives us 80% of what mike williams has done in any of his seasons and then the haters can disappear.

[TexanBeerlover]

I was not a happy camper when Chargers selected WR position 3rd rd. Also Palmer mostly unknown commodity, very much like McKitty and even Rumph. That’s telling me scouting is busting their butts looking to find diamonds in the rough. How crazy if they all contribute in their first year?

Knew about Brenden Jaimes. Couldn’t believe still on the board. Can play both Guard spots and tackle if needed. Niemann is like an old Kirby, just vacuums everything in his path, but didn’t follow Rountree, what a pleasant surprise. Figured Webb was just a special teams player with emergency back-up safety skills, which they might need if Staley has Adderley returning kick-offs.

Back to Palmers situation. Different OC/system every year, QB carrousel against top notch competition which is how they uncovered his individual play against Surtain, Horn and quickly learned he was able to still succeed. Senior Bowl was just confirmation of great route running and hands. Rest is history.

[Heatmiser]

I was unhappy with Williams being drafted where he was. I just did not know about Palmer because watching Tennessee while he was there was painful so why do it? I think some people just look at stats or pro day numbers and base their opinions on that sometimes and might not have really watched him play either. One thing that I really liked about Palmer was what he said on the phone when Telesco and Staley talked to him on draft day. Listen to it if you haven't.

Niemann reminds me of Donnie Edwards, even built like him. Rangy, can really run, doesn't blow people up, but makes sure tackles.

TG

[Panamamike]

I was not a happy camper when Chargers selected WR position 3rd rd. Also Palmer mostly unknown commodity, very much like McKitty and even Rumph. That’s telling me scouting is busting their butts looking to find diamonds in the rough. How crazy if they all contribute in their first year?

Knew about Brenden Jaimes. Couldn’t believe still on the board. Can play both Guard spots and tackle if needed. Niemann is like an old Kirby, just vacuums everything in his path, but didn’t follow Rountree, what a pleasant surprise. Figured Webb was just a special teams player with emergency back-up safety skills, which they might need if Staley has Adderley returning kick-offs.

Back to Palmers situation. Different OC/system every year, QB carrousel against top notch competition which is how they uncovered his individual play against Surtain, Horn and quickly learned he was able to still succeed. Senior Bowl was just confirmation of great route running and hands. Rest is history.

One of our coaches was also part of the defensive staff at Tennessee

[CivilBolt]

One of our coaches was also part of the defensive staff at Tennessee

I think he was the biggest influencer. He probably saw day in and day out how Palmer manhandled their DBs.

[Guest]

Your evaluations of course are subjective. You cannot say that my 2nd observations supported my 1rst observations: confirmed perhaps, but not supported;
'support' here has a weight that is misleading. It is identical to me saying that I think Dean Spanos is a genius, and upon reconsideration i come away with the same iron clad conclusion - which supports my original position.

In this case, your 2nd evaluation of Palmer was similar to your 1rst evaluation: unmoved & unfavorable.

Just wanting to be a dickhead right now; but as someone whose job involves precise definitions, i'm sure you appreciate this.

Conclusions may be subjective in some instances, but in many instances supporting evidence is not.

To use your Dean Spanos example, if you added that you had evidence that Spanos scored a 50 on the Wonderlic test and finished college with a 4.0 GPA, that would be some evidence that would not prove, but would support the view that Spanos may be an individual of high intelligence. If he then followed that up with a #1 class rank in a postgraduate program, that would be evidence that would also tend to support the earlier conclusion that Spanos is a person of high intelligence.

I think your conclusion about Spanos with the evidence I added creates an example that is a lot closer to my take on Palmer. It is most definitely supported, though I would be the first to acknowledge that it is not conclusively established and could end up being wrong as Palmer has yet to play a single regular season NFL down.

[Guest]

Honestly, I find that somewhat hard to believe. By your own statements Palmer was 130-150 on your list, and I don't think any of us were targrting WR. If Palmer was 200 on the list and a good film study is at least 15 minutes (very bare minimum), you're talking about 3000+ minutes or 50+ hours of film study unless you just randomly hit on Palmer.

I appreciate your approach of attempting to break down the time involved. However, you are making some unwarranted assumptions.

First, you are assuming that every video I see is 15 minutes or more in length. Many are half of that. I am not suggesting that I am performing professional level player breakdowns. Rather, I am looking at players to see if they pass the eyeball test and/or show what appear to be NFL caliber traits. I also look at measurables to see if I think the player can maintain his collegiate level excellence in the NFL. I read reviews of players. I look at draft needs and positional distribution to see what makes sense from a BPA at a position of need standpoint.

Second, the draft process for me begins in the fall before the draft, so the process is over 7 months long. Early on, I may only average about 7 hours a month and that rate by itself would get me to your 50 hour figure. But the reality is that the time spent actually increases per month as the college and NFL regular seasons progress and dramatically increases in the early months of the following year leading up to the draft. I am pretty sure that by the time the draft rolls around, I have spent more like 100+ hours of time looking at draft candidates.

Again, I am not suggesting that I am extremely prepared for the draft when compared to some or that I have any sort of special knowledge. But I do put some effort into being informed about players and do have a legitimate basis for every player opinion offered whether or not that opinion about a player ends up being correct in the long run or not.

[Bolt Dude]

I appreciate your approach of attempting to break down the time involved. However, you are making some unwarranted assumptions.

First, you are assuming that every video I see is 15 minutes or more in length. Many are half of that. I am not suggesting that I am performing professional level player breakdowns. Rather, I am looking at players to see if they pass the eyeball test and/or show what appear to be NFL caliber traits. I also look at measurables to see if I think the player can maintain his collegiate level excellence in the NFL. I read reviews of players. I look at draft needs and positional distribution to see what makes sense from a BPA at a position of need standpoint.

Second, the draft process for me begins in the fall before the draft, so the process is over 7 months long. Early on, I may only average about 7 hours a month and that rate by itself would get me to your 50 hour figure. But the reality is that the time spent actually increases per month as the college and NFL regular seasons progress and dramatically increases in the early months of the following year leading up to the draft. I am pretty sure that by the time the draft rolls around, I have spent more like 100+ hours of time looking at draft candidates.

Again, I am not suggesting that I am extremely prepared for the draft when compared to some or that I have any sort of special knowledge. But I do put some effort into being informed about players and do have a legitimate basis for every player opinion offered whether or not that opinion about a player ends up being correct in the long run or not.

Why do I feel like I’m reading a legal document? I can neither confirm nor deny anything anymore. I swear there was going to be a signature line at the bottom.

[AK47]

I'm going to laugh really hard when Palmer gives us 80% of what mike williams has done in any of his seasons and then the haters can disappear.

MW is averaging 4.25 TDs a season. So were looking at 3 TDs?

[Guest]

This is exactly what I am talking about when I stated that Palmer is overhyped. In Ramirez's article, he praises Palmer for getting open on the TD last Sunday against the 49ers.

But the only reason why Palmer was open was because Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who had Palmer covered on the play, inexplicably decided to leave him and run toward Stick even though other defenders were converging on Stick, leaving Palmer wide open. Palmer did not get wide open. He was left wide open. Here is a video of the play in question:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSEXgQibq2A

Even Fouts is over the top with his praise of Palmer on the broadcast, actually comparing the play to The Catch by Dwight Clark. The overhyping of Palmer is ridiculous.

Could we please get a reality check here?