Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[DragonIce]

There are people into analytics that THINK they know about numeric context.

PFF may be TRYING to do a lot of analytics., It's too bad they fail miserably in a so much of it because of their poor experimental designs. They tend to leave a lot of biases into what they do, and can't seem to filter remove them when they crunch numbers. Their draft guides usually start with a lot of regular film study, then they use the "statistics", if you can even call many of them that, for support rather than illumination (like how drunks use lamp-posts).

Palmer was all scouted all over the place by a lot of different people. There were a lot of people who liked him, and a lot more who felt like we reached. Look hard enough, and you can find plenty of people with any approach that did/didn't like Palmer.

Anyone who worries too much about measurables is just begging to be wrong.

Virtually every team in the NFL has an in-house analytics department--some of them with 5-12 full time employees. And nearly every team pays for PFF consultation services. A number of GMs and coaches have visited PFF's offices in Ohio to talk shop. Almost every time I hear someone criticize them, I discover they have very little familiarity with their process.

Football is a very traditional business w/lots of oldschool folks that weren't easy to convince. Just about every team buys in now.

Analytics completely took over baseball, and has all but conquered football. We will be very grateful that Staley loves analytics and that Spanos has finally started an analytics department.

[equivocation]

I think PFF does well in certain areas, mostly 1v1 battles like WR v CB in man coverage or edge v OT in pass rushing. But their grading on results instead of technique goes downhill as interactions start to involve multiple players or scheme uncertainty on the part of the grader.

[AK47]

Transferred to STA for his JR/SR years. First rep was against ASJ when he got there.

Wait isn't that a Catholic School? TT strikes again drafting Choir Boyz!!!

[dmac_bolt]

Meanwhile, Ja’Maar Chase is trying to figure out how to catch a football in practice and during games. No bueno for a top 10 first round pick. I rather have a third round pick with this problem.

Thats.a shame. Palmer has definite limits to his skill set, primarily burst and top speed. But he’s running in a man’s body, he’s not going to get pushed around by DBs, his routes are pretty crisp for a rookie, and he’s got a wide catch radius with vacuum paws for hands. He has a use, though at #4 on the depth chart with likelihood some situations call for #5 with speed, he’s not going to get the chances to hit 80 Rec or 1000 yards. Unless Dub gets hurt for an extended duration, which i hope doesn’t happen. I don’t expect Lance Alworth, so i won’t be as disappointed.

I remember TW took 3 years to learn how to go up and grab that ball and not let defenders just swipe away from him. I remember it took VJ 3 years to emerge as a dominate beast that then quickly commanded a huge FA 2nd deal and left. Palmer is ahead of schedule, the future is unknown.

[DragonIce]

I think PFF does well in certain areas, mostly 1v1 battles like WR v CB in man coverage or edge v OT in pass rushing. But their grading on results instead of technique goes downhill as interactions start to involve multiple players or scheme uncertainty on the part of the grader.

In what sense do you feel they grade on results instead of technique?

[Bolt Dude]

Wait isn't that a Catholic School? TT strikes again drafting Choir Boyz!!!

It’s where Joey Bosa went as well. Is he a choir boy? I wouldn’t say it too his face. In 2020 there were 14 STA alums playing in the NFL. More than any other H.S. Now there’s two more and we got both of em.

[equivocation]

In what sense do you feel they grade on results instead of technique?

In the sense that they say they grade on results rather than technique? I guess now they have over 200 metrics but don't define what they are.

I haven't looked at it in a couple years, but they were all about why grading results is better than technique - when they were first getting prominent - because it takes out potential for bias in the grader. Not results as in "screen pass went for 70 so give the QB a bunch of points" but "QB didn't screw up an easy screen lass so meh".

[like54ninjas]

Wait isn't that a Catholic School? TT strikes again drafting Choir Boyz!!!

Sure but it is a football factory first and foremost. Seriously doubt many of the “scholarship” players/players in general are catholic.

[DragonIce]

In the sense that they say they grade on results rather than technique? I guess now they have over 200 metrics but don't define what they are.

I haven't looked at it in a couple years, but they were all about why grading results is better than technique - when they were first getting prominent - because it takes out potential for bias in the grader. Not results as in "screen pass went for 70 so give the QB a bunch of points" but "QB didn't screw up an easy screen lass so meh".

Hmmm...let's examine this... How do PFF player scores work?!?

I do know with absolute certainty that a quarterback can get a top grade from PFF for a play where the ball is well thrown, well placed but dropped...even if it's batted towards a defender who intercepts. (Wasn't the QB's fault!) Also you'll see a great grade for a running back who gets only two yards when several defenders had a chance to tackle him for a loss, but the back used craft, heart and athleticism to max out the potential of the play as called and blocked. Cris Collinsworth, CEO, repeatedly talks about this. That's bedrock for them, core principles. So players absolutely can --and often do-- get great scores despite poor team results.

They have 3 analysts look at each and every play and analyze every single player in isolation. Grades are assigned for every single player on every single play. PFF analysts//graders are often former coaches or scouts, or folks who deeply study the game and know, in great detail, various schemes, typical assignments, etc.

PFF player grades, in truth, have very little to do with team or individual stats, which are often deceptive. They have zero to do with 40 time or high jump scores. It's just this: how well did player X perform his job, one play after another.

[BoltUp InLA]

Hmmm...let's examine this... How do PFF player scores work?!?

I do know with absolute certainty that a quarterback can get a top grade from PFF for a play where the ball is well thrown, well placed but dropped...even if it's batted towards a defender who intercepts. (Wasn't the QB's fault!) Also you'll see a great grade for a running back who gets only two yards when several defenders had a chance to tackle him for a loss, but the back used craft, heart and athleticism to max out the potential of the play as called and blocked. Cris Collinsworth, CEO, repeatedly talks about this. That's bedrock for them, core principles. So players absolutely can --and often do-- get great scores despite poor team results.

They have 3 analysts look at each and every play and analyze every single player in isolation. Grades are assigned for every single player on every single play. PFF analysts//graders are often former coaches or scouts, or folks who deeply study the game and know, in great detail, various schemes, typical assignments, etc.

PFF player grades, in truth, have very little to do with team or individual stats, which are often deceptive. They have zero to do with 40 time or high jump scores. It's just this: how well did player X perform his job, one play after another.

That was very well explained! Thank you sir! There are few absolute truths.. meaning there will be some outliers and wrongly calculated grades, but overall it must have some value, since many NFL insiders pay close attention to these metrics and scores.

[Guest]

40 rec, 480 yds, 4 tds.

Dang, all this time I thought you were down on Palmer. Those stats aren’t bad at all.

Of the 23 WRs drafted in the 3rd round since 2015, here are the top-8 rookie seasons:

1. Terry McLauren: 58, 919, 7
2. Cooper Kupp: 62, 869, 5
3. Dionte Johnson: 59, 680, 5
4. Tyler Lockett: 51, 664, 6
5. Chris Godwin: 34, 525, 1
6. Michael Gallup: 33, 507, 2
7. Kenny Golliday: 28, 477, 3
8. Tre’Quan Smith: 28, 427, 5

So by your projections, Palmer would have around the 5th or 6th best rookie season of all 3rd round WRs selected since 2015.

I really dig your optimism, man. I’d be thrilled if he turns out as good as any of the guys on that list.

If the team force feeds Palmer, he can have some success. He is an NFL WR and the team seems to favor him. Because of that, those numbers are very possible. But I see that as more of a product of opportunity than a lot of skill as a WR.

But the problem is that I think Guyton and Johnson work better with Herbert and snaps surrendered by them to Palmer, while helping Palmer's stats, are likely to make the offense worse as a general proposition. Guyton had 511 yards as an UDFA last season on just 28 receptions. I would increase the roll of Johnson and keep Guyton's the same (keep in mind that Guyton got a lot of snaps last season due to injuries to Allen and Williams).

As I have said, I think Palmer can be a #3 WR in the NFL, but I think he should be a #5 WR on our team.

[Guest]

That was some smooth work there, bro. Ask the innocent question...pin someone down on quantifiables, then dish the hard facts.

For a guy like Crusher.... Palmer could post that production and more and it would still be a horrible draft selection.

Chain's theme is unwavering: "TT's selection was unthinkable! Palmer was picked .87 of a round higher than the projections of 64% of scouting gurus! What foolishness, So so so so so wrong! Wrong I say! "

You just don't get it. If you give Joe Blow 60 targets, he is going to get some production. And you can draft Joe Blow in rounds 6 through UDFA. As a comparison, Palmer couldn't carry a healthy Tyrell Williams' jockstrap.

My projections assume that the team is going to give him a lot of snaps and a lot of targets at the expense of Johnson and Guyton and the offense will suffer a loss of explosiveness because of it. If Palmer does not get about 60 targets, his numbers will be less than what I projected.

We did not take Palmer a fraction of a round too early. We took him a good 1.5 rounds too early.