Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[RockyMtnBoltFan]

Totally false. Herbert is the best QB in the NFL.

CC - maybe just a couple of observations and words advice.

My observation is that you like to make these absolutist arguments that are very difficult for most rational human beings to align with. Look I love Herbert and know that we have a top tier QB for hopefully the next 15 years. Your assertion that Herbert is currently the best QB In the NFL is YOUR OPINION, but one that most rational human beings don’t agree with. But you defend your stance without any willingness to budge. Likewise with Palmer, to suggest that he can’t improve to being a respectable WR #2 over time is preposterous. Once again…YOUR OPINION… but one that most rational human beings won’t agree with. Your responses tend to have a tone that are condescending.

Advice: I fully respect your opinion and these forums are great for expressing different opinions. I enjoy it as much to learn and become better informed about the Chargers and the NFL. It’s ok to exchange ideas and hopefully learn and become more informed by the dialogue. It would be refreshing to see you evolve your position during the dialogue and even your stance on things rather than just get more entrenched in your argument and attacking in your responses. You would actually gain more credibility by engaging in respectful dialogue and once in a while even (gasp) admit that you are wrong and have altered your perspective on things.

Hopefully you understand my intent is positive in providing this feedback. My hope is that you might actually take a little time to reflect on it as I enjoy the banter, but sometimes the back and forth can be exhausting. Take it for what it’s worth…if you don’t value it, forget about it and you do you.

Peace

[powderblueboy]

CC - maybe just a couple of observations and words advice.

My observation is that you like to make these absolutist arguments that are very difficult for most rational human beings to align with. Look I love Herbert and know that we have a top tier QB for hopefully the next 15 years. Your assertion that Herbert is currently the best QB In the NFL is YOUR OPINION, but one that most rational human beings don’t agree with. But you defend your stance without any willingness to budge. Likewise with Palmer, to suggest that he can’t improve to being a respectable WR #2 over time is preposterous. Once again…YOUR OPINION… but one that most rational human beings won’t agree with. Your responses tend to have a tone that are condescending.

Advice: I fully respect your opinion and these forums are great for expressing different opinions. I enjoy it as much to learn and become better informed about the Chargers and the NFL. It’s ok to exchange ideas and hopefully learn and become more informed by the dialogue. It would be refreshing to see you evolve your position during the dialogue and even your stance on things rather than just get more entrenched in your argument and attacking in your responses. You would actually gain more credibility by engaging in respectful dialogue and once in a while even (gasp) admit that you are wrong and have altered your perspective on things.

Hopefully you understand my intent is positive in providing this feedback. My hope is that you might actually take a little time to reflect on it as I enjoy the banter, but sometimes the back and forth can be exhausting. Take it for what it’s worth…if you don’t value it, forget about it and you do you.

Peace

Why is his opinion wrong? Isn't everybody entitled to an opinion?

Most rational people would agree with that, no?

[powderblueboy]

Missing from this discussion is how Gerard Everett was #2 on Chaincrusher's separation list, with loads of YAC (unlike Guyton) on top of it.

WOOT! WOOT!:cheers:

[DerwinBosa]

Allen always had the ability to set up and shake defenders quickly, even in 2013. And yes, he did get even better at that, but his natural ability was always elite in that respect. Even in early 2014, he made prime Legion of Boom Richard Sherman look absolutely silly.

.

On a play or two against Sherman he did. He had five catches for 55 yards that day. That's not making someone look absolutely silly. Keenan also caught only two passes for three yards in a Sunday Night loss to Darrelle Revis and the Patriots later that season, a key defeat that contributed to us not making the playoffs. Considering he caught only seven passes for 58 yards and no touchdowns against the top two corners in the NFL that season, and was completely dominated and almost shut out by Revis, I guess we should have determined Keenan would never develop into the player he became.

[RockyMtnBoltFan]

Why is his opinion wrong? Isn't everybody entitled to an opinion?

Most rational people would agree with that, no?

never said his opinion is wrong…just the way he goes about it could be more effective.

[Guest]

Allen did his best work as a rookie vs zone coverage. His ability to get open vs man coverage was inconsistent. He has good reps and bad, but that is inconsistent, and that is bad overall. However, his work with Gates and Floyd (and the coaches), he eventually developed into a complete WR.

We will just have to agree to disagree. Watching all 22 I don't see the same things. Palmer does a fine job of getting open and establishing positions to make the catch. Guyton may have moments where he separates, but a lot of times he is running right from one coverage player straight into another defender's area of responsibility. So, while he may be further away from the DB, that doesn't make him more open. Similarly, Herbert's ability to "throw" players open negates the need to need to be wide open. That is what makes NFL Franchise QB's worth what they are worth.

WR don't necessarily need elite measurables to become elite players. Look back at Steve Largent, Chad Johnson and many others. Jerry Rice, for example, had a 4.6 40 time coming out of college back in the day. However, he was a really good route runner (eventually) and played much faster than his straight-line speed, since he maintained his speed through his cuts. The NFL HOF is full of guys who may have lacked elite measurables. There is also just being on the same page as the QB, which is a vastly underrated part of playing WR.

Simply put, Palmer is going to win by his route running, body positioning, and catch radius. Plenty of good WR do that. Guys like Antonio Brown win in the same way, and they lack elite qualities, and for a while, he was the best WR in football. Receivers and QB have to have a lot of unspoken communication and understanding of playing together, which it seems like Palmer has with Herbert.

There have been plenty of smaller WR who have been elite productions. Remember the Smurfs, for the Washington Redskins in the early Redskins days. Antonio Brown is 5'10"185 lbs.

I never said anything about Guyton or Palmer being (or not being) #1 or #2 WR. If you go back and read the post, I said they can sub in and get some snaps in the #1 or #2 spots, giving Allen and/or Williams a breather. While individual stats for Allen and Williams may suffer somewhat by taking them off the field a bit more, if Palmer and Guyton can raise their game, they can be productive part of the rotation and mkae everyone better as a result, even if their stats are not as good.

The term "separation" speaks for itself. We do not have to guess. I have posted the actual average separation stats, which are kept. Among Chargers, Guyton had the best separation and Palmer tied for the worst. It is simple as that.

Your argument about elite measurables is 1) not what I have suggested, and 2) faulty argumentation. The reason why NFL teams desire elite measurables is that they tend to coincide with better WRs. There are exceptions, but there are a lot more guys without elite measurables that do not make it in the league than there are with elite measurables. For every Steve Largent you raise, I can find 100 players with a similar athletic profile that did not make it. We see them in TCs and in preseason games every year and every year they get cut.

Further, I have used the term "elite traits" not elite measurables. Allen really does not have any elite elite measurables, but he does have an elite trait. Other than size, which is a plus trait for Mike Williams, but maybe not an elite trait, Williams has no elite measurables, but he has a couple of elite traits.

Palmer could be telepathically connected to Herbert and I do not think it would help him all that much with his lack of separation skills. I do not see Palmer having any elite traits.

By contrast, Antonio Brown was a little faster than Palmer (close, but barely faster) and had way better moves, which is why he returned kicks for the Steelers, including returning 4 punts for TDs. Really, Brown was pretty much the opposite of Palmer when it comes to moves.

[Guest]

On a play or two against Sherman he did. He had five catches for 55 yards that day. That's not making someone look absolutely silly. Keenan also caught only two passes for three yards in a Sunday Night loss to Darrelle Revis and the Patriots later that season, a key defeat that contributed to us not making the playoffs. Considering he caught only seven passes for 58 yards and no touchdowns against the top two corners in the NFL that season, and was completely dominated and almost shut out by Revis, I guess we should have determined Keenan would never develop into the player he became.

Your post is ridiculous. The issue discussed was when Allen had developed his elite ability to get open. It was clearly present in early 2014 even if an elite CB gave him trouble from time to time (which prime Chris Harris did as well). My belief is that it was also present in 2013 in his rookie season. Allen caught 71 passes for 1046 yards and 8 TDs as a rookie in 2013. Palmer's rookie output bears zero resemblance to Allen's. Allen always has had an elite trait. Palmer lacks any such trait.

[Guest]

Missing from this discussion is how Gerard Everett was #2 on Chaincrusher's separation list, with loads of YAC (unlike Guyton) on top of it.

WOOT! WOOT!:cheers:

I was discussing WRs, not TEs.

[Guest]

CC - maybe just a couple of observations and words advice.

My observation is that you like to make these absolutist arguments that are very difficult for most rational human beings to align with. Look I love Herbert and know that we have a top tier QB for hopefully the next 15 years. Your assertion that Herbert is currently the best QB In the NFL is YOUR OPINION, but one that most rational human beings don’t agree with. But you defend your stance without any willingness to budge. Likewise with Palmer, to suggest that he can’t improve to being a respectable WR #2 over time is preposterous. Once again…YOUR OPINION… but one that most rational human beings won’t agree with. Your responses tend to have a tone that are condescending.

Advice: I fully respect your opinion and these forums are great for expressing different opinions. I enjoy it as much to learn and become better informed about the Chargers and the NFL. It’s ok to exchange ideas and hopefully learn and become more informed by the dialogue. It would be refreshing to see you evolve your position during the dialogue and even your stance on things rather than just get more entrenched in your argument and attacking in your responses. You would actually gain more credibility by engaging in respectful dialogue and once in a while even (gasp) admit that you are wrong and have altered your perspective on things.

Hopefully you understand my intent is positive in providing this feedback. My hope is that you might actually take a little time to reflect on it as I enjoy the banter, but sometimes the back and forth can be exhausting. Take it for what it’s worth…if you don’t value it, forget about it and you do you.

Peace

First, you took the part you quoted out of context. What was totally false was the notion that I wanted Huntley playing over Herbert. Because I am on record as stating that I believe that Herbert is the best QB in the NFL, the assertion made regarding Huntley was totally false. There is no maybe about what I want. An absolutist response about my own desire, which only I know is entirely appropriate. That is not up for debate.

That said, I have been wrong plenty. For example, I thought Forrest Lamp and Joshua Perry were great draft picks for us--the exact player I wanted when we went to make those picks. I underrated Joey Bosa as my bias is in favor of measurables, which Bosa lacked. In doing so, I undervalued his hand usage. There are other examples as well.

Yes, I understand that my opinion about Herbert is an outlier, but it remains my opinion and I can and have supported it.

What others think about my positions in general tends not to impact upon what I think unless superior analysis is provided. Superior analysis is not positing something which the applicable stats show is absolutely dead wrong, which there has already been way too much of when discussing Palmer.

I have stated that Palmer will never be as good as Allen or Williams and that, therefore, if he is playing as our WR1 or WR2, that represents a downgrade. He will not be a good WR1 or WR2. IMO, posters on this forum have wildly overrated Palmer from day one and early on from the notion expressed last year that Palmer is good enough to replace Williams and we should let Williams walk in free agency to the notion this year that Palmer is or will be good enough to replace Allen in a couple of years. That is all complete and total nonsense.

Numerous teams have a guy similar to Palmer on their team--solid reserve players that are nothing more. The talk here would be like talk of Zach Pascal or Tre'Quan Smith being on the verge of having a breakout season. Since we have no investment in the Saints or Eagles, we would laugh at those ideas on their forums. And I suspect fans of other teams would also laugh if/when they see some of the over the top discussion about Palmer, who I am sure is regarded by most NFL fans as "just a guy".

Palmer seems like a hard working player, but even going back to his highlight plays and Senior Bowl reps, the issue with lack of separation was as plain as day. I do not see a guy with average NFL speed and, more importantly, below average moves breaking out and becoming a great player. I would love to be proven wrong, but I think I have a better chance of winning the lottery than seeing that happen.

[dmac_bolt]

The term "separation" speaks for itself. We do not have to guess. I have posted the actual average separation stats, which are kept. Among Chargers, Guyton had the best separation and Palmer tied for the worst. It is simple as that.

…

The reason that the separation stat is incomplete and misleading has been posted already. Bad models lead to bad conclusions. But lets look deeper just at the data you rely on. You don’t account for the cushion stat that is right next to the separation stat. When we account for this stat, we find that Guyton actually LOST the most cushion initially given him by the defense and the reason for his increased separation is that defenses did not cover him as tightly as they don’t worry about his underneath route running ability (as he is sub-par there still).

Cush vs Sep
JP: 5.3 - 2.5 = 2.8
MW: 5.3 - 2.5 = 2.8
KA: 6 - 3.1 = 2.9
JG: 7 - 3.4 = 3.6

[powderblueboy]

The reason that the separation stat is incomplete and misleading has been posted already. Bad models lead to bad conclusions. But lets look deeper just at the data you rely on. You don’t account for the cushion stat that is right next to the separation stat. When we account for this stat, we find that Guyton actually LOST the most cushion initially given him by the defense and the reason for his increased separation is that defenses did not cover him as tightly as they don’t worry about his underneath route running ability (as he is sub-par there still).

Cush vs Sep
JP: 5.3 - 2.5 = 2.8
MW: 5.3 - 2.5 = 2.8
KA: 6 - 3.1 = 2.9
JG: 7 - 3.4 = 3.6

I noticed it, and i already anticipated Chaincrusher's response which would require 3 pages:

Guyton has such a big cushion because of his Usain Bolt type speed.
At the end of the day, separation is separation (what part do you not understand about that?).

More difficult to explain would be why Guyton's YAC is so small after all that separation, given one poster's claim that Guyton has exceptional running ability and contact balance.

[Velo]

I noticed it, and i already anticipated Chaincrusher's response which would require 3 pages:

Guyton has such a big cushion because of his Usain Bolt type speed.
At the end of the day, separation is separation (what part do you not understand about that?).

More difficult to explain would be why Guyton's YAC is so small after all that separation, given one poster's claim that Guyton has exceptional running ability and contact balance.

I don't know if Guyton's YAC underperforms the NFL average, I'd have to see those numbers. But when you are catching a 60-yard bomb in the end zone delivered by Herb's rocket arm, there isn't going to be any YAC. We may never see Guyton's full potential because his targets are going to be limited with the Chargers because of all the weapons this offense has, unless there are injuries to receivers ahead of him. But I argue that for a #4 WR, Guyton is among the best if not that best at that level on the depth chart.