Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

[Bolt-O]

I'm good with the team using analytics to help them make decisions on critical downs, but the reliance on them can lead to predictability. It's now almost a given that the Chargers will go for it on 4th down and less than 3 to go, so its normally not a surprise to the other team, which may not be included in that probability of success. Anything wrong in the actual call, or execution, you lower the probability of success, that's a given. However analytics are better than a feeling in the gut, or flying by the seat of your pants.

[21&500]

Interesting ... Rams just went for it a similar situation, failed to convert. And now Stafford rolled his ankle.

On a stupid play where the smart thing to do is eat the sack
he had a similar but worse play earlier
This is the veteran quarterback play the Rams gave up so much to trade for
Stafford had a shit game as did many MVP front runners like Josh Allen
Our guy might still be in the mix for MVP
Jackson had a good game (stats) but two Ints

[Bolt-O]

Interesting ... Rams just went for it a similar situation, failed to convert. And now Stafford rolled his ankle.

[SuperCharged]

I love it. It is agression. I would rather be agressive than passive. Especially on the road.

I question the play calling more than going for it. Me personally I would try and get Herbert on the run more to open up the field. The kid shows practially every week he can put the ball between the numbers when he's on the run.

[Xenos]

I don't think Staley should stop going for it. But I don't think he should do it at every drop of the hat either. Team was 2/4 in the Eagles game. The play where the team was 4 and 2 giving the ball to Joshua Kelley was not a good play. The offense gets predictable sometimes.

He’s not going for it willy nilly. There’s a statistical reason behind his decision. Example below:

[21&500]

Still have no problem with any 4th down call thus far

[ChargersPowderBlue]

I don't think Staley should stop going for it. But I don't think he should do it at every drop of the hat either. Team was 2/4 in the Eagles game. The play where the team was 4 and 2 giving the ball to Joshua Kelley was not a good play. The offense gets predictable sometimes.

[dmac_bolt]

The answer is no. Forget last week, we would have lost if we punted. That game was doomed, it was one of those days.

[Xenos]

So if this stat is right, we’re actually pretty middle of the road. The Patriots are actually the most conservative on 4th downs.

[Steve]

The thing is, if the Ravens (or anyone else) has done their homework and knows their stuff, they may not have exactly the same analytics data to work off of, but they are in our heads and know what we are up to. Harbaugh may not be as aggressive as Staley with regards to going for it on 4th down, but he has been through the thought process 1000 times, done hundreds of game plans where they have weighed the pros and cons, and really thought things through. And that makes us more predictable.

The same would not be said for every other team. If they choose to be more traditional and punt or kick on 4th down, then they may sit down and try and get in Staley's head, but they may not be able to mimic the thinking.

[Caslon]

Analytics were thrown out the window against the Ravens. Those 4th down tries were desperation attempts. The Chargers had a real motivation lapse. That happens sooner or later during a long season. Hard to keep the hype motor chugging game after game. The loss being so lopsided does bring into question Staley’s motivational sustainability. The team simply should not have lost by so many points.

[Xenos]

Do they maybe need to re-evaluate a few things? Yes. But remember, the staff should be re-evaluating things EVERY game, win or lose.

The 4th down thing has been such a big part of the 4 wins. The execution was bad, and I got the sense that the Ravens were more confident taking on those 4 down calls than other teams had been. Regardless if that is true or not, the execution was just not there, and the best strategy in the world is not going to work if you cannot execute.

A huge part of the loss and general struggles this season has been a lack of physicality. Ravens DB were knocking the Chargers receivers around, and our DB were not doing it back. We have been struggling to stop the run, and have struggled to run.

It should be no surprise that the Chargers are not ready to win a SB. But they do have 12 weeks to do some serious soul searching and decide if they want to be serious about trying this year. If everyone on the O and D makes a serious commitment and puts in the extra hard work, they may be able to improve enough to get over the hump. This team will never be a really physical, run stuffing/smash mouth bunch of slopperknockers, but they can get better. The bye week is a good time to make a good start in that direction.

Your sense is right. It’s probably because John Harbaugh has experience going for it on 4th downs based on the analytics as well.