Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

[chargeroo]

One thing we learned from this game is we sure need a capable backup for Derwin. Looks to me like it would be smart to have a LB slow Kelce at the LOS with Derwin out.

[Parcells]

One thing we learned from this game is we sure need a capable backup for Derwin. Looks to me like it would be smart to have a LB slow Kelce at the LOS with Derwin out.

His backup (Alohi Gilman) was also injured.

[Xenos]

I think a lot of people will disagree but I think Staley made the wrong choice on going for it on several 4th downs. I know some of you will not ever see it this way but I will explain anyway. First of alll the "analytics" that everyone is talking about is just another way of saying statistics or statistical analysis. Staley is using a set of those statistics to justify going for it on 4th downs but the numbers he is using is not the be all end all because it is just a sample of statistics and does not take many other things into account. Now while overall the team has been overall very successful going for it on 4th down the numbers don't justify going for it in all situations.

To put this in perspective to last nights game he passed up the chance to potentially score 3 points on 3 separate situations. If you break down numbers Staley's decision initially seems sound. According to NFL.com these are the stats on going for it on 4th and short:

Fourth-and-inches (< 0.5 yds)	77%
Fourth-and-1 (0.5 < 1.5 yds)	72%
Fourth-and-2 (1.5 < 2.5 yds)	59%

Looks pretty good but the fact is that points win games and while there is a good chance to get those the TD points in those situations near the goal line the chance of kicking the field goals and getting 3 points in the fourth and goals and a 4th and 2 when the field goal options were available last night are significantly better. If I totaled the numbers correctly the odds of getting points on the 46 yard field goal is 84.4% base on this years stats (analytics). 136 out of 161 attempts and the 4th and goals from 20-29 yards 98.8%.

https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/field-goals/2021/reg/all/kickingfgpct/desc

Those numbers would also be analytics when it gets down to it and on three different occasions last night the coach chose an option with significantly lower chances of scoring points and that leads to the number one stat\analytic of all time, which is if you score less points than your opponent you lose 100% of the time. In the alternate words of a commercial---"Mr. Owl, how many times passing on field goals does it take to lose a game?" (Mr Owl) One, two, three...CRUNCH!" or in last nights case, just one.

The analytic chart that Staley uses to make his decision is just one of many sets of numbers he can use to make decisions and doesn't take into account situational football like the numbers above. Nor does it take into account other things like the Chargers being the #1 team in dropped passes which could also factor into decision making\play calling. https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmle...e=NFL&rank=232. That chart is just one tool in the toolbox and there are other tools he can use. Last night he kept pulling out the sledgehammer to get the victory when all he need was a ball peen hammer. IMO his hard on he has for one analytic chart\tool did indeed cost the team the game last night. Some times you just need to go for the higher chance of getting points on the board.

Staley uses a different analytics tool but it’s similar to the one below. They were all the right decisions. We just didn’t execute.

[richpjr]

Staley uses a different analytics tool but it’s similar to the one below. They were all the right decisions. We just didn’t execute.

The frustrating thing was the dropped passes - the right decision with the right play called and we dropped passes. The two drops - likely the difference in the game.

[Bolt4Knob]

The frustrating thing was the dropped passes - the right decision with the right play called and we dropped passes. The two drops - likely the difference in the game.

Dropped passes all year have been a hindrance. I am not saying they would have lead to points. But sometimes they might have just extended a drive by one more series to flip field position. Or yes, might have lead to points

The Patriots game - Mike Williams dropped a pass - had to punt; Ekeler bounced off his hands, Patriots pick it off, they get the FG to get to 14-13 at the half where if Ekeler catches it, Chargers might lead 17-10 at the half; Keenan Allen against the WFT - dropped a ball at the 8 - - Chargers kick a FG but maybe they get 7. Allen againsgt the Pats, drops a pass, Chargers kick a FG but again, maybe they get the TD

Mike Williams has had 3 if not 4 drops inside the five alone. Cook dropped that pass , though a bit high, from Herbert

Chargers are losing points, field position and time of possession because of dropped passes. And with the defense they have, every 45 seconds the offense has the ball means the defense doesn't have to play.

Dropped passes - I have no idea how to quantify but over the course of this year - probably worth at least one win.

[dmac_bolt]

Go for it - Lets Go Brandon! Fuck that game, its over and done, let it go. Staley’s go for it approach has been more good than bad this year - keep at it.

[Rugger05]

[Maniaque 6]

I think a lot of people will disagree but I think Staley made the wrong choice on going for it on several 4th downs. I know some of you will not ever see it this way but I will explain anyway. First of alll the "analytics" that everyone is talking about is just another way of saying statistics or statistical analysis. Staley is using a set of those statistics to justify going for it on 4th downs but the numbers he is using is not the be all end all because it is just a sample of statistics and does not take many other things into account. Now while overall the team has been overall very successful going for it on 4th down the numbers don't justify going for it in all situations.

To put this in perspective to last nights game he passed up the chance to potentially score 3 points on 3 separate situations. If you break down numbers Staley's decision initially seems sound. According to NFL.com these are the stats on going for it on 4th and short:

Fourth-and-inches (< 0.5 yds)	77%
Fourth-and-1 (0.5 < 1.5 yds)	72%
Fourth-and-2 (1.5 < 2.5 yds)	59%

Looks pretty good but the fact is that points win games and while there is a good chance to get those the TD points in those situations near the goal line the chance of kicking the field goals and getting 3 points in the fourth and goals and a 4th and 2 when the field goal options were available last night are significantly better. If I totaled the numbers correctly the odds of getting points on the 46 yard field goal is 84.4% base on this years stats (analytics). 136 out of 161 attempts and the 4th and goals from 20-29 yards 98.8%.

Not the Chargers !

[Riverwalk]

In Staley’s own words……he said he was playing to the teams strength going for it on fourth down.

my interpretation is he’s saying he lacks confidence in his defense ability to contain KC. Perhaps he knew Derwin wasn’t going to play the second half and Chargers needed a lot more points.

Consequently, I could actually see Staley’s 4th down strategy change next year. If he gains a better pass rush, run and pass defense
next year through the draft and FA’cy he might believe his defense can limit opponents to fewer points and field goals are golden.

Belichik and Harbaugh seldom go for 4th down conversions when they are in field go range because they trust their defenses to stop opponents. If they had the Chargers banged up defense, they might go for all those 4th down conversions too.

[gzubeck]

In Staley’s own words……he said he was playing to the teams strength going for it on fourth down.

my interpretation is he’s saying he lacks confidence in his defense ability to contain KC. Perhaps he knew Derwin wasn’t going to play the second half and Chargers needed a lot more points.

Consequently, I could actually see Staley’s 4th down strategy change next year. If he gains a better pass rush, run and pass defense
next year through the draft and FA’cy he might believe his defense can limit opponents to fewer points and field goals are golden.

Belichik and Harbaugh seldom go for 4th down conversions when they are in field go range because they trust their defenses to stop opponents. If they had the Chargers banged up defense, they might go for all those 4th down conversions too.

I've seen Belicheck games like this when his defense was completely depleted and the team even had a lead late in games. We are way to thin in the DB area and we need way better depth. Losing a game with 2 minutes on the clock with a touchdown lead just plain sucks. I think we would have been better off just tackling the receivers at the line of scrimmage and just burning the clock out and then try and keep them out of the endzone.

:smoking:

[Charge!]

this is pretty well said.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEmyPkQefCk

I would also add that if we dropped the ball less, we would have far less failures on 4th down and fewer needs to go for it on 4tth down.....

[Bolt4Knob]

this is pretty well said.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEmyPkQefCk

I would also add that if we dropped the ball less, we would have far less failures on 4th down and fewer needs to go for it on 4tth down.....

Dropped passes on third down it seems - way too often. Very true... would have needed less fourth downs and probably scored many more points if just middle of the NFL.