Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

[BlazingBolt]

Did we go for it at all in the Vikings game on 4th down?

[richpjr]

Araiza is going to get a lot of attention from the NFL just because he doesn't use the sidewinder style that is so popular in college football. The sidewinder punters use the Aussie style of kicking, but it takes a long time to get the punt off, which is why NFL teams don't use it.

Araiza uses a conventional approach and kick, which makes his long kicks that much more amazing. Also, in watching him, while I didn't see him have to adjust on any really horrible snaps, he was constantly adjusting some on just about every punt, which is a nice plus that he is good at getting his body in front of the ball and getting the ball cleanly so he can get the punt off.

He also has a couple of nasty tackles this year where he just lit up the returner.

[Steve]

Araiza is going to get a lot of attention from the NFL just because he doesn't use the sidewinder style that is so popular in college football. The sidewinder punters use the Aussie style of kicking, but it takes a long time to get the punt off, which is why NFL teams don't use it.

Araiza uses a conventional approach and kick, which makes his long kicks that much more amazing. Also, in watching him, while I didn't see him have to adjust on any really horrible snaps, he was constantly adjusting some on just about every punt, which is a nice plus that he is good at getting his body in front of the ball and getting the ball cleanly so he can get the punt off.

[richpjr]

Is that the punter that literallly has a howitzer for a leg? Can he also place the ball ?

TG

They reported during the Aztec game that he has over a yard higher punting average than the best punter in the history of college football. He also has more 80, 70, 60 and 50 yard punts than any kicker in the NFL does this year.

Looks like we have. Good thing too. It would have been worse.

[Heatmiser]

Is that the punter that literallly has a howitzer for a leg? Can he also place the ball ?

TG

[dmac_bolt]

I'm good with the team using analytics to help them make decisions on critical downs, but the reliance on them can lead to predictability. It's now almost a given that the Chargers will go for it on 4th down and less than 3 to go, so its normally not a surprise to the other team, which may not be included in that probability of success. Anything wrong in the actual call, or execution, you lower the probability of success, that's a given. However analytics are better than a feeling in the gut, or flying by the seat of your pants.

Not sure its a big surprise when they line up with no kicker on the field anyway. DCs spot that ‘tell’ right away.

Aztecs did a fake FG last week, holder ran from ~20 yards out for a TD. Speaking of Aztecs, hey TT - draft Araiza, Rd 4 - 5! Could be the best 5th rounder of your career (if he’s even still there)

[richpjr]

Pipkins is the fly in the ointment for me, Chain. I just don't understand why he is still on the team. So I see your reason for a little push back on my thoughts and don't disagree with it.

TG

Staley mentioned in an interview I saw that they are still intrigued by his huge upside and think it can be developed. The problem is, he actually looks worse than last year, which is saying something as he was pretty bad last year. I can't imagine he is on the team next year.

[Heatmiser]

I think that the vast majority of your post is correct.

However, I disagree regarding part of your take in item 5. We kept Pipkins, Stick, Hill and Webb, but cut Johnson. If we were going to keep an ST only PR in Hill, then we should have kept 6 WRs and not 5. Historically, we have generally kept 6 WRs. Our deep passing game absolutely has not been as good this season. Johnson's primary strength, as with Guyton, is the deep passing game. I think this point is even clearer now than it was when Johnson was cut (when I first made this point). Cutting Johnson was a mistake.

The two new additions both appear to be upgrades as you noted.

Pipkins is the fly in the ointment for me, Chain. I just don't understand why he is still on the team. So I see your reason for a little push back on my thoughts and don't disagree with it.

TG

[Steve]

When you punt, you give away the possession.
It's a turnover.
Downs, fumble, interception or punt.
All give the ball away.
If your defense is gassed and you are falling way behind on the scoreboard.
The 3 and out then punt is not going to get you back in the game. And it won't give your defense a breather. So you make a big bet on JH10 when you line your odds and make your opponent sweat the next down. Or like he did last game, he just won't give you the ball or momentum back at the end of the game, you have to call his bet and hold up. Staley is raking it in on most of his bets. The dude has calculated the percentages and knows scared money makes no money. So he confidently makes the bet and lives with the results.

Turnovers aren't just important because of who gets the ball, or who is denied possession. When a team gets a turnover, it usually involves a big swing in field position too, making it a twofer (field position and possession). But going for it on 4th down and failing can set up the other team pretty good well too. Punts may not be a fan's favorite play, but name another that NET'S 40 yards per play. Mike Scifries won several games for the Chargers, including huge roles in playoff games vs the Colts (2007 and 2009).

Some of what makes Staley's going for it important seems to be a taking the other "intangible" parts of the game into account. Flow of the game, momentum and jus the relative strength. I don't think we would be going for it nearly as often if Herbert wasn't the QB. Herbert is a top 5 QB, and he gives us a lot better odds than a lot of other QB would. if we improve the OL and the running game, then I think the odds go up even more in many situations.

Our D is also not that great. I know it is going to continue to improve and get better under Staley, but I think part of why we are going for it is to keep the D in good situations. Sometimes it is about field position, but sometimes it is about game situation and that is about scoring and clock management.

We don't have a punter or ST that are anywhere near as good as we used to, back in the day. I would argue that if we had Mike Scifries, and top notch ST in from that period, then Staley would punt more than we do now. But we have Long, who is at best a solid punter, but not all that special. And our coverage teams are still kinda shaky, and how much do we trust the D to pin a team deep in their own end late in a close game?

Once again, thank you Xenos. With all the complaining and hand wringing some of us do on this board, I think we forget some of the blessings we now have with this coaching staff and team.

1. Staley manages the clock, timeouts, challenges and 4th downs extremely well. We all felt the pain of NOT doing this well in the past.
2. Our team does not make the absolutely stupid, mind numbing mistakes they were known for under Lynn. Other than the penalties on not being properly set early in the season it is just not happening.
3. We have an aggressive mind set that plays to win vs plays not to lose.
4. This staff does not have 'favorite' players who play when they should not be on the field and is willing to develop and play young talent. And for all the accusations by some here in the past, it does not appear that Telesco, John Spanos or the ghost of Gene Klein are pressuring the coaches to put players on the field just because they like them or are paying them a lot. Mike Vato Davis has been splitting time pre injury, with a street FA.
5. I would say the players we kept were the right ones and the ones we let go were the right ones. And the FA we added to replace players just let go (HIll, Viz) were good calls. This does not mean we have the ultimate roster, rather it means based upon the cards we had in our hand, we did the right things with them.
6. This team does not have their shoulders slumped, waiting to lose or find a way to lose
7. This coaching staff seems to work to find the best players, put them in positions to be successful, and then depend on them

I think that the vast majority of your post is correct.

However, I disagree regarding part of your take in item 5. We kept Pipkins, Stick, Hill and Webb, but cut Johnson. If we were going to keep an ST only PR in Hill, then we should have kept 6 WRs and not 5. Historically, we have generally kept 6 WRs. Our deep passing game absolutely has not been as good this season. Johnson's primary strength, as with Guyton, is the deep passing game. I think this point is even clearer now than it was when Johnson was cut (when I first made this point). Cutting Johnson was a mistake.

The two new additions both appear to be upgrades as you noted.

[Critty]

When you punt, you give away the possession.
It's a turnover.
Downs, fumble, interception or punt.
All give the ball away.
If your defense is gassed and you are falling way behind on the scoreboard.
The 3 and out then punt is not going to get you back in the game. And it won't give your defense a breather. So you make a big bet on JH10 when you line your odds and make your opponent sweat the next down. Or like he did last game, he just won't give you the ball or momentum back at the end of the game, you have to call his bet and hold up. Staley is raking it in on most of his bets. The dude has calculated the percentages and knows scared money makes no money. So he confidently makes the bet and lives with the results.