Patriots at Chargers Pregame Discussion (wk 8)

[Formula 21]

I'm with you on the idea if you can get a known veteran proven player for a 5th Rd pick then do it.

This article below was analyzing performance of draft picks by Rd.
I have for a long time thought the difference between the 4th-7th Rd talent and the udfa players was insignificant. And those later rd picks were slightly more valuable as an asset to be traded then a pick to be made.
And based on the analysis in this article. It's true. So, trading any of the 4-7 rd picks for a proven veteran starter would likely be more successful than if you drafted a rookie with that pick and hope they developed into a starter.
Also trading this year pick for a rd higher next year if it can be done is also a smart move to increase likelihood that the draft pick is successful. Trading the 4th and 5th for next year's 3rd would increase the odds that you get a quality starter with that acquired 3rd than if you just picked at your spot in those rds. And if you do it when you deem this year class is a bit weak and next year draft is stronger. That could be a way to get a slight edge in roster construction.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

Another tidbit from that data is that you should get 3 starters from 7 picks.

[Charge!]

That’s a lot of points for a team that got whipped in every phase of the game last time out

way too many points.... especially for a team that has been dominated my patriots for many years...... not only do we lose to them, the games are never close....

[sonorajim]

That’s a lot of points for a team that got whipped in every phase of the game last time out

Maybe the odds makers feel that having upgrades on OL, STs and coaching makes a difference.
That and our record this year vs SB Coaches.

This isn't that team.

[equivocation]

Nonsense. UDFA is UDFA. What is effectively minor league ball experience disqualifies from UDFA - lol. You listed guys either not on the team or never contributed a single significant snap from scrimmage and you dismiss UDFA players that are doing it every week in 2021. You can remove CHJ if it offends you, my UDFA list still buries your 5th round list.

I agree i am positive on Jaimes. But they are all either inactive or unused. Q contributed when our bottom-of-league players got hurt, sure. How many snaps has he contributed in 2021? Guyton could well be upgraded, but TT drafted a 5th round WR just two years ago and that guy sure didn’t do it.

you have your point and are forcing and contorting data to fit. The roster status as of 10/30/21 confirms that 5th rounders are a flier. UDFAs are a flier. The difference is you have unlimited UDFA options and a single 5th round pick. The aggregate odds of finding UDFAs out of the entire universe that contribute more than your 5th rounder is obvious and factually proven. Which returns us to the starting purpose of this eternal UDF v Rd5 review: if LAC could get a player than can contribute this year for a 5th round flier, should they? I say yes, get a guy that can provide proven solid rotational depth or more. You apparently want to protect that coveted Rd5 pick so we can snag another Joe Reed someday in the future.

NCAA D1 football is minor league pro football.

[Boltjolt]

Nonsense. UDFA is UDFA. What is effectively minor league ball experience disqualifies from UDFA - lol. You listed guys either not on the team or never contributed a single significant snap from scrimmage and you dismiss UDFA players that are doing it every week in 2021. You can remove CHJ if it offends you, my UDFA list still buries your 5th round list.

I agree i am positive on Jaimes. But they are all either inactive or unused. Q contributed when our bottom-of-league players got hurt, sure. How many snaps has he contributed in 2021? Guyton could well be upgraded, but TT drafted a 5th round WR just two years ago and that guy sure didn’t do it.

you have your point and are forcing and contorting data to fit. The roster status as of 10/30/21 confirms that 5th rounders are a flier. UDFAs are a flier. The difference is you have unlimited UDFA options and a single 5th round pick. The aggregate odds of finding UDFAs out of the entire universe that contribute more than your 5th rounder is obvious and factually proven. Which returns us to the starting purpose of this eternal UDF v Rd5 review: if LAC could get a player than can contribute this year for a 5th round flier, should they? I say yes, get a guy that can provide proven solid rotational depth or more. You apparently want to protect that coveted Rd5 pick so we can snag another Joe Reed someday in the future.

Im not forcing anything and you are missing the pojnt. You said we can just pick up a couple of UDFAs and can do as well than a couple of 5th rounders. Bullshit.....we signed i believe 19 UDFAs this year and who is doing anything? Jaimes is our 5th this year and will contribute at some point this year.

One 5th rounder vs those 19 UDFAs. Now if we can get 19 5th rounders as well this year then im sure our depth would be much better. I agree with Critty as well , if we can trade a 5th to move up in a round or acquire a vet being dumped for salary, im all for that too but to say picking up a bunch of UDFAs will help this tea, i think is BS.

I recall a time when we werent very good a while ago and the posters here calling the part of the problem being that we had TOO MANY UDFAs on the roster. I'm talking young UDFAs that weren't getting better.

CHJ was a UDFA but at this point he is a vet player of 9-10 seasons and not what id call a UDFA anymore. Teams miss in these guys all the time too and a low % of them prove to be that good.

[Xenos]

Good news for tomorrow!

[jamrock]

Good news for tomorrow!

Good news indeed. Let’s see what we got

[beachcomber]

Just curious,did you think we were gonna beat the Ravens?

woulda been (pleasantly) surprised,

[Velo]

Good news for tomorrow!

Justin Jones is going to make a difference, I hope he's in reasonable football shape and physically and mentally ready to rumble. Twenty7savage, that's his handle on Twitter and Instagram. He's a baby girl dad.

[dmac_bolt]

Im not forcing anything and you are missing the pojnt. You said we can just pick up a couple of UDFAs and can do as well than a couple of 5th rounders. Bullshit.....we signed i believe 19 UDFAs this year and who is doing anything? Jaimes is our 5th this year and will contribute at some point this year.

One 5th rounder vs those 19 UDFAs. Now if we can get 19 5th rounders as well this year then im sure our depth would be much better. I agree with Critty as well , if we can trade a 5th to move up in a round or acquire a vet being dumped for salary, im all for that too but to say picking up a bunch of UDFAs will help this tea, i think is BS.

I recall a time when we werent very good a while ago and the posters here calling the part of the problem being that we had TOO MANY UDFAs on the roster. I'm talking young UDFAs that weren't getting better.

CHJ was a UDFA but at this point he is a vet player of 9-10 seasons and not what id call a UDFA anymore. Teams miss in these guys all the time too and a low % of them prove to be that good.

No, what i said was a handful of UDFAs more than replaces ONE 5th round pick. And yes it is because you can test out a lot more UDFAs, that is my point. I never said a single UDFA is better than a single 5th Rd pick.

Maybe you could reassess based on that correction to your assumption.

I recall a time when none of our 5th round picks were doing anything for the team. I call it today.

[Charge!]

Good news for tomorrow!

that is good news, should help at least little but Chargers have not been good at stopping the run even when everyone was healthy....... just like last several years, teams that need to run have been able to run on chargers whenever they have needed to......

smart teams commit to the run against our bad defense...... stupid teams like raiders give up on run after a few plays..... NE is not stupid.....

[Xenos]

that is good news, should help at least little but Chargers have not been good at stopping the run even when everyone was healthy....... just like last several years, teams that need to run have been able to run on chargers whenever they have needed to......

smart teams commit to the run against our bad defense...... stupid teams like raiders give up on run after a few plays..... NE is not stupid.....

Quite the optimist you are.

The Raiders gave up on running against us because they couldn’t and we were scoring TDs, while they were getting nothing. NE will go away from the run if the same thing happens tomorrow.

Do you enjoy making things up so everyone can be equally pessimistic?