Patriots at Chargers Pregame Discussion (wk 8)

[TexanBeerlover]

Someone posted the stats broken out by group.

Place kicking and kick returns were bottom of the league.

Kick coverage and punt returns were in the 20s

Punting and punt coverage were dead average.


So it has gotten better and we've replaced the worst performers this week.

nowhere to go but up

[dmac_bolt]

No......it hasnt worked that way. We sign 15 to 20 UDFA's after the draft every year and 1, maybe 2 make the team and then we got lucky with a couple like Ekeler and Gates,..... and Gates goes back some years. The odds are a lot higher with UDFA's. We have 8 guys on our PS from those yearly UDFA's and many of them never make it to the squad and there is changeover yearly.

We signed Parham from the XFL in 2020 after their season so technically he was a UDFA in 2019 but developed some on PS's and played in another league.

What??? Sorry, I can’t hear you over the sound of the actual data

it HAS worked that way for LAC. Literally. Look at the roster. The lesson to be learned is do not overvalue the importance of a 5th rd draft pick; if a team will give you an actual proven NFL player for a future 5th - take him.

UDFAs Contributing
Ekeler S
Parham S*
Davis S
Campbell S*
Norton S
CHJ S
Long S
Anderson S*
Merrill
Guyton S*

S = Starter
S* = “Starter” in certain packages (e.g. nickel/dime, 3WR sets, etc. 2/3TE sets)
Counting it up for you, thats 9 UDFAs with some significant level of contribution

Meanwhile, your LAC 5TH Rd Picks Contributing to Anything
Still NOBODY - Not one guy

And … if you need to sign 3 UDFAs to find that player, or 5, or 9 - go for it. My point wasn’t numerical accuracy, it was strategy.

[ChargersPowderBlue]

The full game from last year against New England is on Youtube.

That shutout could have been prevented if Lynn didn't go for it on 4th down, and tried a FG instead. But Lynn is a numskull. He went for the 4th down at 4:11 left in the game, at the 30 in NE territory. If Lynn tried a FG they would of have a chance to get on the scoreboard with a 3. You could argue about Badgley being troublesome with his kicks, but he did make a game winning field goal against the Falcons the next week at the 43 yard line.

I was mad that the shutout happened, and it being the worst loss in history. I want revenge on the Patriots. I want to return the favor by holding New England to zero or put up 50 on the Patriots.

[Formula 21]

The full game from last year against New England is on Youtube.

That shutout could have been prevented if Lynn didn't go for it on 4th down, and tried a FG instead. But Lynn is a numskull. He went for the 4th down at 4:11 left in the game, at the 30 in NE territory. If Lynn tried a FG they would of have a chance to get on the scoreboard with a 3. You could argue about Badgley being troublesome with his kicks, but he did make a game winning field goal against the Falcons the next week at the 43 yard line.

I was mad that the shutout happened, and it being the worst loss in history. I want revenge on the Patriots. I want to return the favor by holding New England to zero or put up 50 on the Patriots.

I don’t agree with kicking a FG to save face. Toughen up, show some balls and go for the TD. And Lynn did.

[Formula 21]

From PFF


New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS


The benefit of playing the Jets twice in seven weeks is really something. The Patriots rank 17th in EPA per drive on offense and eighth in EPA per drive on defense. If you take away the Jets as an opponent (not just for them, but for every team), the Patriots drop down to 27th on offense and 19th on defense. They pounded the Jets, 54-13, last week and now travel to Los Angeles to take on a Chargers team coming off their bye.

Justin Herbert had one of the worst games of his career last year in a 45-0 loss to the Patriots. And he’s coming off a bad game against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6. I still believe in him and in this team, but the kicking situation — they’re replacing Tristan Vizcaino with Dustin Hopkins — makes me nervous, and I think Mac Jones will be able to move the ball.

The pick: Patriots (+5.5)

[Critty]

I'm not going to bother with this other than remind you that analogies are meant to clarify and simplify.
The very statement "a quality analogy you clearly do not understand" is a contradiction.

Your knowledge and comprehension skills have nothing to do with the quality of the analogy. If you can't understand what a mechanical cog in a system is and how QBs are not cogs in a system, then you could educated yourself so you would understand it. Or attack it like you did and stay ignorant. That's your choice.

[Boltjolt]

What??? Sorry, I can’t hear you over the sound of the actual data

it HAS worked that way for LAC. Literally. Look at the roster. The lesson to be learned is do not overvalue the importance of a 5th rd draft pick; if a team will give you an actual proven NFL player for a future 5th - take him.

UDFAs Contributing
Ekeler S
Parham S*
Davis S
Campbell S*
Norton S
CHJ S
Long S
Anderson S*
Merrill
Guyton S*

S = Starter
S* = “Starter” in certain packages (e.g. nickel/dime, 3WR sets, etc. 2/3TE sets)
Counting it up for you, thats 9 UDFAs with some significant level of contribution

Meanwhile, your LAC 5TH Rd Picks Contributing to Anything
Still NOBODY - Not one guy

And … if you need to sign 3 UDFAs to find that player, or 5, or 9 - go for it. My point wasn’t numerical accuracy, it was strategy.

And again ill point out....

Parham we picked up from the XFL so he had experience and some development
* Norton, same thing as Parham and we are looking to upgrade him....is he who we REALLY want starting?
* Chris Harris Jr.....Really? You are going to name him. He was a FA signing who esstablished himself elsewhere.
* Merrill has shown what so far? That we need an upgrade imo.
* Guyton needs to be upgraded. Just because a guy makes the team dont mean he is a keeper. Guyton is a marginal player and should be depth. Not our #3
Davis has been above average but took him a while, He was awful as a ookie when he needed to play. He still isnt a #1 CB type but the best we got right now which with time will be surpassed by Samual.
* Anderson, spot player who may not be here next year as McKitty takes his spot.
Campbell has some nice prospects.....look forward to his progress.
* Long? The punter? You want to name him? lol Kickers and punters are normally UDFAs.

Not sure why you are grasping at straws with your just sign a couple UDFAs and we have the equivelent to a 5th rounder.

We get one 5th round pick a year, 2 if we are lucky and bring in ....like i said, 15 to 20 UDFAs every season. CHJ .....to name him is a joke bro. We didnt develope him at all and has been in the league 10 years. He was a FA signing.

Those i put * next to are players we can upgrade from.....but someone like Merrill is a rookie and is cheap to develope. I wouldnt of even mentioned him if i were you. He was kinda forced to play and didnt do great. So lets go by the last 5 years. In that time we have brought in 75 to 100 UDFAs and we have less than 10 doing anything for us and half we need to upgrade, as opposed to the 5 - 5th rounders we have drafted.

Past recent 5th rounders....

Desmond King, ;Probowler but he fell ouot of favor and we dont know why.
Brenden Jaimes, shows good promise for us as a posssible starter down the road
Joe Reed......had surgery and can only hope he shows us somwrhing
Easton Stick.......just a 3rd string nobody
Scott Quessenberry.......depth and contributes when needed
Jatavis Brown....showed good promise early, starter and wasnt resigned
Kyle Emaual....starter for us wasnt resigned.

Ill stop there and thats the last seven 5th rounder compared to the 75 to 100 UDFAs brought in the past 5 years. If i go seven years like those last 5th rounders, thats 105 to 140 UDFA's during that same time. And you are showing less than 10 with one as a UFA signing by us who is a 10 year vet.

UDFAs are cool to get but they have a low % of doing anything for you and one....... every number of years in between we find a Gates and Ekeler. And every team finds them. This place acts like Telesco is the only GM that misses on picks and that nobody else finds UDFAs that can play.

[blueman]

* Guyton needs to be upgraded. Just because a guy makes the team dont mean he is a keeper. Guyton is a marginal player and should be depth. Not our #3

This sticks out a lot as to our current O issues. More Palmer, please.

[powderblueboy]

Your knowledge and comprehension skills have nothing to do with the quality of the analogy. If you can't understand what a mechanical cog in a system is and how QBs are not cogs in a system, then you could educated yourself so you would understand it. Or attack it like you did and stay ignorant. That's your choice.

My comprehensive skills are fine. Your ability to use an analogy to make yourself comprehensible is in question here. The farther we move away from it, the more convinced you become of its 'quality'. Your insistence almost had me half way convinced.

Well, let's look at it again:

"Your assertion of what happens when sports is organic as if QBs are mechanical cogs that can easily be substituted for is mind boggling to me. It simply doesn't work that way, never has, never will"

Now, someone more clever than me would astutely contrast an organic with a mechanical system... it being that my assertion that sports being organic (and not mechanical?) has lead me into error: an apriori notion that does not bear out in the real world. But then, QBs are not mechanical cogs that can easily be substituted: my god, are they then organic, since they are not mechanical cogs? But, if they are organic, and football is not organic: as you can see i'm losing ground here rapidly.

Do you re-read your stuff before posting?

If you simply wrote that QBs are not mechanical cogs that can easily be substituted into a football team: then you make yourself comprehensible. I surmised that that is what you were trying to say and responded to it: teams replace players all the time. They generally don't sign someone, and then play them the following day...there is learning the play book, and practice, and countless repetitions. That's what they did with Brady, & that's what they would have done with the 17 QBs that i mentioned with similar success.

Capiche?

[Xenos]

What??? Sorry, I can’t hear you over the sound of the actual data

it HAS worked that way for LAC. Literally. Look at the roster. The lesson to be learned is do not overvalue the importance of a 5th rd draft pick; if a team will give you an actual proven NFL player for a future 5th - take him.

UDFAs Contributing
Ekeler S
Parham S*
Davis S
Campbell S*
Norton S
CHJ S
Long S
Anderson S*
Merrill
Guyton S*

S = Starter
S* = “Starter” in certain packages (e.g. nickel/dime, 3WR sets, etc. 2/3TE sets)
Counting it up for you, thats 9 UDFAs with some significant level of contribution

Meanwhile, your LAC 5TH Rd Picks Contributing to Anything
Still NOBODY - Not one guy

And … if you need to sign 3 UDFAs to find that player, or 5, or 9 - go for it. My point wasn’t numerical accuracy, it was strategy.

If you can trade a 5th rounder for a starter then sure. But usually those starters have issues including age, injuries, and cost. As Boltjolt already mentioned, we’ve had 5th rounder starters on this team.

[Critty]

What??? Sorry, I can’t hear you over the sound of the actual data

it HAS worked that way for LAC. Literally. Look at the roster. The lesson to be learned is do not overvalue the importance of a 5th rd draft pick; if a team will give you an actual proven NFL player for a future 5th - take him.

UDFAs Contributing
Ekeler S
Parham S*
Davis S
Campbell S*
Norton S
CHJ S
Long S
Anderson S*
Merrill
Guyton S*

S = Starter
S* = “Starter” in certain packages (e.g. nickel/dime, 3WR sets, etc. 2/3TE sets)
Counting it up for you, thats 9 UDFAs with some significant level of contribution

Meanwhile, your LAC 5TH Rd Picks Contributing to Anything
Still NOBODY - Not one guy

And … if you need to sign 3 UDFAs to find that player, or 5, or 9 - go for it. My point wasn’t numerical accuracy, it was strategy.

I'm with you on the idea if you can get a known veteran proven player for a 5th Rd pick then do it.

This article below was analyzing performance of draft picks by Rd.
I have for a long time thought the difference between the 4th-7th Rd talent and the udfa players was insignificant. And those later rd picks were slightly more valuable as an asset to be traded then a pick to be made.
And based on the analysis in this article. It's true. So, trading any of the 4-7 rd picks for a proven veteran starter would likely be more successful than if you drafted a rookie with that pick and hope they developed into a starter.
Also trading this year pick for a rd higher next year if it can be done is also a smart move to increase likelihood that the draft pick is successful. Trading the 4th and 5th for next year's 3rd would increase the odds that you get a quality starter with that acquired 3rd than if you just picked at your spot in those rds. And if you do it when you deem this year class is a bit weak and next year draft is stronger. That could be a way to get a slight edge in roster construction.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/

[dmac_bolt]

And again ill point out....

Parham we picked up from the XFL so he had experience and some development
* Norton, same thing as Parham and we are looking to upgrade him....is he who we REALLY want starting?
* Chris Harris Jr.....Really? You are going to name him. He was a FA signing who esstablished himself elsewhere.
* Merrill has shown what so far? That we need an upgrade imo.
* Guyton needs to be upgraded. Just because a guy makes the team dont mean he is a keeper. Guyton is a marginal player and should be depth. Not our #3
Davis has been above average but took him a while, He was awful as a ookie when he needed to play. He still isnt a #1 CB type but the best we got right now which with time will be surpassed by Samual.
* Anderson, spot player who may not be here next year as McKitty takes his spot.
Campbell has some nice prospects.....look forward to his progress.
* Long? The punter? You want to name him? lol Kickers and punters are normally UDFAs.

Not sure why you are grasping at straws with your just sign a couple UDFAs and we have the equivelent to a 5th rounder.

We get one 5th round pick a year, 2 if we are lucky and bring in ....like i said, 15 to 20 UDFAs every season. CHJ .....to name him is a joke bro. We didnt develope him at all and has been in the league 10 years. He was a FA signing.

Those i put * next to are players we can upgrade from.....but someone like Merrill is a rookie and is cheap to develope. I wouldnt of even mentioned him if i were you. He was kinda forced to play and didnt do great. So lets go by the last 5 years. In that time we have brought in 75 to 100 UDFAs and we have less than 10 doing anything for us and half we need to upgrade, as opposed to the 5 - 5th rounders we have drafted.

Past recent 5th rounders....

Desmond King, ;Probowler but he fell ouot of favor and we dont know why.
Brenden Jaimes, shows good promise for us as a posssible starter down the road
Joe Reed......had surgery and can only hope he shows us somwrhing
Easton Stick.......just a 3rd string nobody
Scott Quessenberry.......depth and contributes when needed
Jatavis Brown....showed good promise early, starter and wasnt resigned
Kyle Emaual....starter for us wasnt resigned.

Ill stop there and thats the last seven 5th rounder compared to the 75 to 100 UDFAs brought in the past 5 years. If i go seven years like those last 5th rounders, thats 105 to 140 UDFA's during that same time. And you are showing less than 10 with one as a UFA signing by us who is a 10 year vet.

UDFAs are cool to get but they have a low % of doing anything for you and one....... every number of years in between we find a Gates and Ekeler. And every team finds them. This place acts like Telesco is the only GM that misses on picks and that nobody else finds UDFAs that can play.

Nonsense. UDFA is UDFA. What is effectively minor league ball experience disqualifies from UDFA - lol. You listed guys either not on the team or never contributed a single significant snap from scrimmage and you dismiss UDFA players that are doing it every week in 2021. You can remove CHJ if it offends you, my UDFA list still buries your 5th round list.

I agree i am positive on Jaimes. But they are all either inactive or unused. Q contributed when our bottom-of-league players got hurt, sure. How many snaps has he contributed in 2021? Guyton could well be upgraded, but TT drafted a 5th round WR just two years ago and that guy sure didn’t do it.

you have your point and are forcing and contorting data to fit. The roster status as of 10/30/21 confirms that 5th rounders are a flier. UDFAs are a flier. The difference is you have unlimited UDFA options and a single 5th round pick. The aggregate odds of finding UDFAs out of the entire universe that contribute more than your 5th rounder is obvious and factually proven. Which returns us to the starting purpose of this eternal UDF v Rd5 review: if LAC could get a player than can contribute this year for a 5th round flier, should they? I say yes, get a guy that can provide proven solid rotational depth or more. You apparently want to protect that coveted Rd5 pick so we can snag another Joe Reed someday in the future.