Herbert vs His Peers

[dmac_bolt]

The 2018 Patriots outrushed us 155-19 in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 44 times to Rivers' 51. The Patriots had 34 rushing attempts to our 12. They outrushed the Kansas City Chiefs 176-41 during their close win in the AFC Championship Game. Brady threw 46 times to Mahomes' 31, but the Patriots also had 48 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 12. They outrushed the Los Angeles Rams 154-62 during their 13-3 Super Bowl win. The Patriots had 32 rushing attempts to the Rams' 18. Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes and three interceptions that postseason, while Sony Michel rushed for 336 yards and 6 touchdowns in those three games.

In 2019 Jimmy Garoppolo attempted 19 passes during the 49ers' 27-10 Divsional Round win over the Vikings. Kirk Cousins threw 29 passes. San Francisco outrushed Minnesota 186-21. Garoppolo attempted eight passes during the 49ers' 37-20 win over the Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw 39 passes. San Francisco outrushed Green Bay 285-62. If Garoppolo had performed better in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl the 49ers would have wrapped up a victory over the Chiefs.

The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers outrushed Washington 142-86 during a 31-23 win in the Wild Card Round. Brady threw 40 passes to Heinecke's 44.The Bucs had 29 rushing attempts to Washington's 23. The Bucs outrushed the Saints 127-104 in a 30-20 win in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 33 passes to Brees's 34. The Bucs had 35 rushing attempts to the Saints' 25. The Bucs were pretty even with the Packers in rushing during the 31-23 win in the NFC Championship Game, as they had 76 to Green Bay's 67. The Bucs had 24 rushing attempts to Green Bay's 16. Brady threw 36 times to Rodgers' 48. The Bucs' outrushed the Chiefs 145-107 during their 31-9 blowout win in the Super Bowl. Brady threw 29 passes to Mahomes' 49. The Bucs had 33 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 17.

New England was outrushed 164-113 in its Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. The Patriots were outrushed 201-98 during their 2019 Wild Card Round loss (20-13) to the Titans, a game in which Tennessee had 40 rushing attempts to New England's 22, and Brady threw the ball 37 times to Ryan Tannehill's 15.

It's very nice that you found evidence of the last eight Super Bowl winners averaging over 36 attempts a game. There's also quite a bit of evidence that running it a lot helps, as it keeps you on the field longer and gives you more plays. Our leading ball-carrier, Austin Ekeler, had 206 rushing attempts this past season. Joe Mixon had 292 in the same amount of games. Derrick Henry had 219 in eight games. Josh Allen had 122 alone for the Bills--about twice as much as Justin Jackson and exactly four times as much as Joshua Kelley..

We need a better commitment to the running game.

I think you guys can hand pick stats all day and night. Any aspect of an offense that works very well is a good thing. Nothing bad about having a great rushing attack. its gotten a lot harder to win a championship without a superior pass attack, but its not impossible. Your own defense can say a lot about if anything on offense matters too. LA Rams defense meant the most in the last SB, my opinion - as they pounded Burrow into the turf and he never could get on track for anything. Being a sophomore obviously didn’t help him, but they were up in his biz in a hurry all day long.

just in general, its more of a passing league than it used to be. A great rush game that can keep it balanced, keep the defense from pinning their ears back, and drain the clock at the end is a great plus. I want the Chargers to get better at rushing the ball to compliment Herbie

[equivocation]

What does that have to do with the average number of passes per game??????

Maybe the real problem is a lot of your posts just aren't very clear.

Just to join in on that TB had the most attempts this season. Is that supposed to have some great deep seeded meaning??

You joined in a discussion that started with "Yes, it is a bad thing for any quarterback to throw the ball 672 times." (Post #256)

You then joined in with platitudes about "toughness" and "impose your will" and how passing offenses lack that.

This then breaks down into two parts: is there "too much passing"? And how can we define a "finesse" offense or otherwise an offense that lacks "toughness".

1. The idea that there is a number of passes, or rushes, that is appropriate or good or whatever is complete nonsense. A decision to run or pass, as part of play calling, must take into account situational football: down, distance, score, clock, offensive personnel, defensive personnel, defensive alignment. If a defense is using a 4 man box and won't come out of it then run all over them. The idea that there is some sort of "balance" that must be maintained is a false one; you run what play makes you most likely to win given the situation.

The data shows that the NFL is increasingly a passing league, teams are passing more and at higher rates, and in any given situation the team that passes more, and passes more on early downs, tends to win more. This is just a correlation, not causation, so it could be that better passing leads to more wins AND more passing or that more passing leads to more wins.

To go back to the original claim, the idea that it is "always a bad thing for a QB to throw 672 times" is complete, unsupported, bunk. As a rather obvious counter example, Tom Brady threw over 44 times a game in 2020 and the Bucs won the superbowl, so it can't ALWAYS be bad. There exists a counterexample. That's a stupid statement from a stupid person. 44*17= 748 btw. Higher than 672. Further, 7 of the last 8 SB winners threw >34 times a game. Obviously these teams are finiding success while "passing too much". NFL teams are trending toward a greater % of passing plays in any given situation, and better teams tend to skew more. Of course, a team that is way behind will have to throw the ball, which is why we control for game situation.

I know you don't believe in advanced stats (and always refuse to propose an alternative method of comparative analysis beside battling anecdotes) but EPA/play, succes rate, win rate, all support the idea that passing is generally more efficient than running. I support a balanced offense so that the offense can respond to any situation, but the idea that a "balanced" offense must balance their playcalling to not have too many passes is ignorant shit. There is no such thing as an ideal number of passes so there cannot be "too many passes". If defenses are stacking the box every snap, throw the damn ball (hey, run into light boxes, throw over heavy boxes, novel fucking concept)


2. Okay, so onto the "toughness" thing. Obviously, extrapolating from above, 7 of the last 8 SB winners were pass first offenses. The lack of "toughness" is not hindering their success, and if it is, can we have some of that hinderance please?

The issue comes down to a definition of "toughness" or "finesse" or whatever. How are we to define these things except by the rate at which they throw the ball? Or is it a Humpty Dumpty definition, the words mean whatever you want them to at the time?

It again comes back to a false idea of "balance". Good teams with good passing attacks tend to pass more because that gives the greatest chance to win. That does NOT mean they lack the ability to "impose their will", which is largely a fuction of the OL. And good passing offenses often have good OL.

Do you really think that during 7 on 7 the trenchers aren't running their own drills and 5v4 or 8v7 matchups? I would have spent half of football practice holding my dick if that was the case. Passing doesn't lead to a lack of "impose your will". Bad line play does.

[DerwinBosa]

To go back to the original claim, the idea that it is "always a bad thing for a QB to throw 672 times" is complete, unsupported, bunk. As a rather obvious counter example, Tom Brady threw over 44 times a game in 2020 and the Bucs won the superbowl, so it can't ALWAYS be bad. There exists a counterexample. That's a stupid statement from a stupid person. 44*17= 748 btw. Higher than 672. Further, 7 of the last 8 SB winners threw >34 times a game. Obviously these teams are finiding success while "passing too much". NFL teams are trending toward a greater % of passing plays in any given situation, and better teams tend to skew more. Of course, a team that is way behind will have to throw the ball, which is why we control for game situation.

.

It is always a bad thing. The Bucs won the Super Bowl last year in a blowout because the Kansas City Chiefs were dumber than they were, dropping back to pass 52 times when they knew they couldn't pass protect. To a lesser extent so were the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, with Aaron Rodgers getting sacked five times and harassed constantly in 53 dropbacks, while his running backs got only 16 carries even though they were averaging over four yards (in A.J. Dillon's case he got just three carries for 17 yards, nearly six yards a carry). And this was a week after the Packers rushed for 188 yards on 36 carries in a win over the the Rams.

But I guess you're a genius for not understanding how more balance in the offense and a better commitment to the running game makes a more formidable team. This after, I presume, you learned nothing while watching Dan Fouts and Philip Rivers never get past an AFC Championship game and Justin Herbert fail to make the playoffs his first two years.

[Critty]

It is always a bad thing. The Bucs won the Super Bowl last year in a blowout because the Kansas City Chiefs were dumber than they were, dropping back to pass 52 times when they knew they couldn't pass protect. To a lesser extent so were the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, with Aaron Rodgers getting sacked five times and harassed constantly in 53 dropbacks, while his running backs got only 16 carries even though they were averaging over four yards (in A.J. Dillon's case he got just three carries for 17 yards, nearly six yards a carry).

But I guess you're a genius for not understanding how more balance in the offense and a better commitment to the running game makes a more formidable team. This after, I presume, you learned nothing while watching Dan Fouts and Philip Rivers never get past an AFC Championship game and Justin Herbert fail to make the playoffs his first two years.

Both the Bucs and Rams defense front put immense pressure on KC and Cin. And when a team is struggling to pass protect, then using the run game and screen game to slow down the pass rush makes all the sense in the world. And for whatever reason KC and Cin didn't adjust and instead asked their QB to throw under quick and constant pressure. I understand putting the ball in your best players hands and going down swinging with the ball in his hands. But it's a team game. The run game, special teams and defense have to be used to take pressure off QB in games where QB won't have much time to throw. And if you are able to stick with run game, you will find better opportunities to throw. Now when you can just drop back and throw because the pressure is minimal. Then you should take advantage of that opportunity.

Herbert high attempts is part using short pass game as extension of run game in this offense scheme. So I would expect his pass attempt to be a higher.

If Herbert is going to win a SB. The. Defense and special teams and run game will have to play a important role. If he has to carry the team with passing. They will likely come up short of the ultimate prize in a team sport.

[Guest]

Copying and pasting a previous post for your stubbornness.

The 2018 Patriots outrushed us 155-19 in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 44 times to Rivers' 51. The Patriots had 34 rushing attempts to our 12. They outrushed the Kansas City Chiefs 176-41 during their close win in the AFC Championship Game. Brady threw 46 times to Mahomes' 31, but the Patriots also had 48 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 12. They outrushed the Los Angeles Rams 154-62 during their 13-3 Super Bowl win. The Patriots had 32 rushing attempts to the Rams' 18. Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes and three interceptions that postseason, while Sony Michel rushed for 336 yards and 6 touchdowns in those three games.

In 2019 Jimmy Garoppolo attempted 19 passes during the 49ers' 27-10 Divsional Round win over the Vikings. Kirk Cousins threw 29 passes. San Francisco outrushed Minnesota 186-21. Garoppolo attempted eight passes during the 49ers' 37-20 win over the Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw 39 passes. San Francisco outrushed Green Bay 285-62. If Garoppolo had performed better in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl the 49ers would have wrapped up a victory over the Chiefs.

The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers outrushed Washington 142-86 during a 31-23 win in the Wild Card Round. Brady threw 40 passes to Heinecke's 44.The Bucs had 29 rushing attempts to Washington's 23. The Bucs outrushed the Saints 127-104 in a 30-20 win in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 33 passes to Brees's 34. The Bucs had 35 rushing attempts to the Saints' 25. The Bucs were pretty even with the Packers in rushing during the 31-23 win in the NFC Championship Game, as they had 76 to Green Bay's 67. The Bucs had 24 rushing attempts to Green Bay's 16. Brady threw 36 times to Rodgers' 48. The Bucs' outrushed the Chiefs 145-107 during their 31-9 blowout win in the Super Bowl. Brady threw 29 passes to Mahomes' 49. The Bucs had 33 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 17.

New England was outrushed 164-113 in its Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. The Patriots were outrushed 201-98 during their 2019 Wild Card Round loss (20-13) to the Titans, a game in which Tennessee had 40 rushing attempts to New England's 22, and Brady threw the ball 37 times to Ryan Tannehill's 15.

It's very nice that you found evidence of the last eight Super Bowl winners averaging over 36 attempts a game. There's also quite a bit of evidence that running it a lot helps, as it keeps you on the field longer and gives you more plays. Our leading ball-carrier, Austin Ekeler, had 206 rushing attempts this past season. Joe Mixon had 292 in the same amount of games. Derrick Henry had 219 in eight games. Josh Allen had 122 alone for the Bills--about twice as much as Justin Jackson and exactly four times as much as Joshua Kelley..

We need a better commitment to the running game.

Your post appears to be an attempted response to what equivocation posted. It is irrelevant as a response to what I have posted. It does not prove that there is anything problematic with Herbert throwing the ball 672 times as you have suggested.

Your post focuses on what other teams have done in isolated instances. You are taking a minute sample size from other teams and suggesting that it somehow means something relative to Herbert. It does not.

In suggesting that higher pass to run ratios do not harm offensive production, I showed you that 3 top 6 teams in pass to run ratio were also top 5 scoring teams. Another top 5 scoring team was in the top 10 in pass to run ratio. And the 5th top scoring team was in the top half of the league in pass to run ratio.

Running out of some stupid desire to be balanced when that is not where the team's talent is focused is just stupid as an approach. That is idiotic Anthony Lynn football at its finest. All 32 teams passed the ball more than they ran it 2021.

Our offensive success would have been even greater but for some shortcomings by Lombardi in terms of play calling and use of personnel. He has the "pass it a lot" part figured out, which is the biggest improvement over Lynn's stupidity, but did not do as well as he could have with which pass plays he was calling at times and which players were running which routes.

By being pass heavy and aggressive, this offense has the potential to be the top scoring unit in the NFL instead of "only" a top 5 scoring team.

Teams that have a great passing QB and very good group of receivers should pass the ball a lot. It is kind of common sense.

[dmac_bolt]

It is always a bad thing. The Bucs won the Super Bowl last year in a blowout because the Kansas City Chiefs were dumber than they were, dropping back to pass 52 times when they knew they couldn't pass protect. To a lesser extent so were the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, with Aaron Rodgers getting sacked five times and harassed constantly in 53 dropbacks, while his running backs got only 16 carries even though they were averaging over four yards (in A.J. Dillon's case he got just three carries for 17 yards, nearly six yards a carry). And this was a week after the Packers rushed for 188 yards on 36 carries in a win over the the Rams.

But I guess you're a genius for not understanding how more balance in the offense and a better commitment to the running game makes a more formidable team. This after, I presume, you learned nothing while watching Dan Fouts and Philip Rivers never get past an AFC Championship game and Justin Herbert fail to make the playoffs his first two years.

Well, the chiffs couldn’t run either, so whats option #3?

[DerwinBosa]

Well, the chiffs couldn’t run either, so whats option #3?

The running back they drafted in the first round that season (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) carried it nine times for 64 yards. Still think they couldn't run it?

[DerwinBosa]

Running out of some stupid desire to be balanced when that is not where the team's talent is focused is just stupid as an approach. That is idiotic Anthony Lynn football at its finest. All 32 teams passed the ball more than they ran it 2021.

If your offense is built to be pass happy it is a bad thing. That's what you and others don't seem to get. Would you not take Jonathan Taylor, who was drafted in the second round, on this team? And if you did have Jonathan Taylor, would you hand it off to him only 200 times and let Herbert throw it 672? Even without Jonathan Taylor or a running back with similar abilities, this team didn't run the ball enough in losses to the Cowboys and as I showed in previous posts to the Broncos and Raiders (which have been ignored). Even early in the game against the Ravens, it was Herbert passing nine of the first 12 plays. The Ravens ran all over us to a 17-0 lead before we even knew what hit us.

This isn't hard to figure out. The team needs to get stronger in the trenches (on both sides of the ball) and build a better running game. But maybe you and the other genius don't want that because it will somehow make Justin Herbert look like less of a quarterback.

[dmac_bolt]

The running back they drafted in the first round that season (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) carried it nine times for 64 yards. Still think they couldn't run it?

Yeah. Not enough to win the Super Bowl, that is. He popped some runs where the defense was in more concerned with pass but he ran in the end zone zero times in the first half so … yeah, I’m ok with my estimation that they were doomed when they were reduced to shitty scrub backup OL players no matter what they did. It’s a question that can never be answered - just opinions i suppose.

[DerwinBosa]

Yeah. Not enough to win the Super Bowl, that is. He popped some runs where the defense was in more concerned with pass but he ran in the end zone zero times in the first half so … yeah, I’m ok with my estimation that they were doomed when they were reduced to shitty scrub backup OL players no matter what they did. It’s a question that can never be answered - just opinions i suppose.

They were going to lose regardless, but having Mahomes dropping back to pass and running for his life all game was one of the dumbest approaches I've ever seen.

[Guest]

I don't care about Rosenthal's rankings any more than I do Pro Football Focus placing Joe Burrow as the best quarterback this season.

I didn't say "being physically superior" means nothing. But if you think it means as much as you claim it does when comparing Herbert to Burrow or Mahomes, then you probably also think John Elway was a better quarterback than Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Johnny Unitas, none of whom had a cannon or the ability to run that Elway possessed (although Montana was a good scrambler).

It is always better to be more physically talented as a QB than not.

You have raised examples in which other, less physically talented QBs have had success. Nobody is saying that cannot happen, but those are in the small minority of cases. So, when you raise Tom Brady as an example, it is the same kind of argument as saying that a 6th round pick can be better than a first round pick. Yes, that can happen, but first round picks are better the vast majority of the time as are more physically gifted QBs.

In your analysis, you are assuming that Burrow, a clearly less physically gifted QB, has what Montana and Brady had in terms of other abilities that would compensate for a lack of physical gifts. That has not been established and represents poor argumentation. Just because a less physical gifted player can succeed in isolated instances does not mean that every less physically gifted QB will succeed.

Moreover, looking at the issue from the side of the more physically gifted player, there are often clear weaknesses also in play that served to compromise those players. Elway had a very strong arm, but he was not a very accurate passer. Jeff George was a head case that often had conflict with coaches and management. Jay Cutler was known for having a bad attitude. Herbert displays none of these or other weaknesses.

As for my comparisons between Herbert and Burrow and Herbert and Mahomes, those are two very different comparisons. Herbert and Mahomes are far more similar than Herbert and Burrow.

In my comparison between Herbert and Mahomes, what I am saying is that between two physically gifted QBs, it is Herbert that has the higher ceiling, is on the upswing, and has already fully matched Mahomes' performance. Going forward, I reasonably expect Herbert to be better than Mahomes. That said, the margin between the two is fairly small because both are physically gifted players with Herbert being slightly more physically gifted.

In my comparison between Herbert and Burrow, I am saying that Herbert's physical advantages over Burrow are pronounced. Herbert can make plays all the time all over the place that Burrow cannot. I think Burrow probably is a very slightly more accurate passer than Herbert on the whole, but that that is nowhere close to being enough to offset Herbert's physical advantages.

I suspect Herbert would be better than Burrow in any NFL offense anywhere and that if both played for the same team, no matter which team, Burrow would be Herbert's backup.

[Guest]

If your offense is built to be pass happy it is a bad thing. That's what you and others don't seem to get. Would you not take Jonathan Taylor, who was drafted in the second round, on this team? And if you did have Jonathan Taylor, would you hand it off to him only 200 times and let Herbert throw it 672? Even without Jonathan Taylor or a running back with similar abilities, this team didn't run the ball enough in losses to the Cowboys and as I showed in previous posts to the Broncos and Raiders (which have been ignored). Even early in the game against the Ravens, it was Herbert passing nine of the first 12 plays. The Ravens ran all over us to a 17-0 lead before we even knew what hit us.

This isn't hard to figure out. The team needs to get stronger in the trenches (on both sides of the ball) and build a better running game. But maybe you and the other genius don't want that because it will somehow make Justin Herbert look like less of a quarterback.

Nobody has ever indicated that we should not try to have better players at every position. Teams always try to improve at every position. So that is a non-issue.

I have already proven that your thinking that teams that pass the ball cannot have offensive success is incorrect. Teams with elite QBs throw the ball a lot because they have elite QBs. That is why 3 of the top 6 passing teams were also top 5 scoring teams.

I specifically wanted us to draft Taylor in round 2 of the 2020 NFL draft. And if we had Taylor, I would still want us to put the ball in Justin Herbert's hands as he is arguably the best QB in the NFL going forward as of right now.

Your takes as to specific losses are BS. They really deserve to be ignored as they are that bad. However...

We lost to DAL because we missed a FG and had two TDs called back on penalties that we did not end up getting. Since those drives netted 3 points instead of the 17 that should have happened, we lost 20-17 instead of winning 31-20.

Against DEN, apart from Herbert scrambles, we averaged a whopping 2.8 yards per carry, so that was not the answer. The passing game was working, but we had a pass resulting in a first down at the DEN 6 called back due to a penalty against Linsley, which set up a 3rd and 14 and an INT by Herbert in the end zone. And Ekeler dropped a pass into a pick 6. Add in a missed FG and the game changes from a likely hard fought 23-21 victory against a divisional opponent into a 28-13 loss.

Against the Raiders, of course, we had zero chance at all without Herbert and the passing game and, in fact, probably win that game if we had passed the ball on 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 from deep in our own end instead of failing with stupid running plays. Of course, we also could have gone for two with Herbert passing the ball after Herbert put the team on his back and led two brilliant TD drives down the stretch and won the game that way. And we could have won the game by winning a stupid coin toss.

Against BAL, the whole team played poorly, so it probably did not matter what we did in that game, but beating the blitz over the top with Guyton for TDs multiple times seemed like a promising option instead of attempting two yard passes against bump and run coverage to Josh Palmer. 10 RB carries for 14 yards strongly suggests that running the ball was not the answer. BAL did have the #32 ranked pass defense and the #1 ranked run defense, so yeah, running the ball a lot against them makes sense (full sarcasm intended). SMH....