Herbert vs His Peers

[Steve]

There are two problems most of the best passing offenses have.

1). They can move the ball like crazy, but at some point, they need to impose their will on the other team. Taking what the other team gives you (us) is a fine concept until you realize that to some degree you are doing what the other team's wants you to do. If you want to be a championship team, you have to impose your will on the other team.

2). Toughness. Passing offense takes a lot of repetition to get really good at. Lots of individual patterns, lots of 7 on 7, playing against air. Then when you go to play against bodies, not only are the D (and OL) techniques bad because they don't get the reps in practice, you don't get the teamwork either. Running the football is tough because it only takes 1 mistake to blow up a play. You have to dominate the other team or it doesn't get you a lot of yards. But at some point, if you want/need that 1 yard at the goal line or on 4th down, you have to impose your will on the other team and get the tough yard.

[equivocation]

There are two problems most of the best passing offenses have.

1). They can move the ball like crazy, but at some point, they need to impose their will on the other team. Taking what the other team gives you (us) is a fine concept until you realize that to some degree you are doing what the other team's wants you to do. If you want to be a championship team, you have to impose your will on the other team.

2). Toughness. Passing offense takes a lot of repetition to get really good at. Lots of individual patterns, lots of 7 on 7, playing against air. Then when you go to play against bodies, not only are the D (and OL) techniques bad because they don't get the reps in practice, you don't get the teamwork either. Running the football is tough because it only takes 1 mistake to blow up a play. You have to dominate the other team or it doesn't get you a lot of yards. But at some point, if you want/need that 1 yard at the goal line or on 4th down, you have to impose your will on the other team and get the tough yard.

The last 8 Superbowl winners had QBs averaging well over a combined 36 attempts per game. At what point does your hypothesis get overwhelmed by evidence?

[DerwinBosa]

The last 8 Superbowl winners had QBs averaging well over a combined 36 attempts per game. At what point does your hypothesis get overwhelmed by evidence?

The 2018 Patriots outrushed us 155-19 in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 44 times to Rivers' 51. The Patriots had 34 rushing attempts to our 12. They outrushed the Kansas City Chiefs 176-41 during their close win in the AFC Championship Game. Brady threw 46 times to Mahomes' 31, but the Patriots also had 48 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 12. They outrushed the Los Angeles Rams 154-62 during their 13-3 Super Bowl win. The Patriots had 32 rushing attempts to the Rams' 18. Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes and three interceptions that postseason, while Sony Michel rushed for 336 yards and 6 touchdowns in those three games.

In 2019 Jimmy Garoppolo attempted 19 passes during the 49ers' 27-10 Divsional Round win over the Vikings. Kirk Cousins threw 29 passes. San Francisco outrushed Minnesota 186-21. Garoppolo attempted eight passes during the 49ers' 37-20 win over the Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw 39 passes. San Francisco outrushed Green Bay 285-62. If Garoppolo had performed better in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl the 49ers would have wrapped up a victory over the Chiefs.

The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers outrushed Washington 142-86 during a 31-23 win in the Wild Card Round. Brady threw 40 passes to Heinecke's 44.The Bucs had 29 rushing attempts to Washington's 23. The Bucs outrushed the Saints 127-104 in a 30-20 win in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 33 passes to Brees's 34. The Bucs had 35 rushing attempts to the Saints' 25. The Bucs were pretty even with the Packers in rushing during the 31-23 win in the NFC Championship Game, as they had 76 to Green Bay's 67. The Bucs had 24 rushing attempts to Green Bay's 16. Brady threw 36 times to Rodgers' 48. The Bucs' outrushed the Chiefs 145-107 during their 31-9 blowout win in the Super Bowl. Brady threw 29 passes to Mahomes' 49. The Bucs had 33 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 17.

New England was outrushed 164-113 in its Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. The Patriots were outrushed 201-98 during their 2019 Wild Card Round loss (20-13) to the Titans, a game in which Tennessee had 40 rushing attempts to New England's 22, and Brady threw the ball 37 times to Ryan Tannehill's 15.

It's very nice that you found evidence of the last eight Super Bowl winners averaging over 36 attempts a game. There's also quite a bit of evidence that running it a lot helps, as it keeps you on the field longer and gives you more plays. Our leading ball-carrier, Austin Ekeler, had 206 rushing attempts this past season. Joe Mixon had 292 in the same amount of games. Derrick Henry had 219 in eight games. Josh Allen had 122 alone for the Bills--about twice as much as Justin Jackson and exactly four times as much as Joshua Kelley..

We need a better commitment to the running game.

[DerwinBosa]

You making up nonsense does not make the nonsense true. Three of the top 5 scoring teams were also in the top 5 in pass percentage. A 4th top 5 scoring team was 9th in pass percentage. The 5th was 13th. Thus, all of the top 5 scoring teams were above average in pass percentage with most of them being very above average in terms of pass percentage. Teams with Brady, Herbert and Mahomes decided to throw the ball a lot because they figured out that their QBs are/were very good.

One of the stupidest concepts I have ever heard is the notion that an offense must be balanced to succeed. Team results simply do not support that notion.

Further, Herbert is better than Mahomes. Like Rosenthal, I also have about 3 ranking spots of separation between Herbert and Mahomes in favor of Herbert. Herbert is still ascending and has surpassed Mahomes by a small margin.

I have no issue with superior physical skills not being everything. I never said they were. But you are trying to make being physically superior mean nothing, which is just false as the vast majority of the time, it means a lot.

Copying and pasting a previous post for your stubbornness.

The 2018 Patriots outrushed us 155-19 in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 44 times to Rivers' 51. The Patriots had 34 rushing attempts to our 12. They outrushed the Kansas City Chiefs 176-41 during their close win in the AFC Championship Game. Brady threw 46 times to Mahomes' 31, but the Patriots also had 48 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 12. They outrushed the Los Angeles Rams 154-62 during their 13-3 Super Bowl win. The Patriots had 32 rushing attempts to the Rams' 18. Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes and three interceptions that postseason, while Sony Michel rushed for 336 yards and 6 touchdowns in those three games.

In 2019 Jimmy Garoppolo attempted 19 passes during the 49ers' 27-10 Divsional Round win over the Vikings. Kirk Cousins threw 29 passes. San Francisco outrushed Minnesota 186-21. Garoppolo attempted eight passes during the 49ers' 37-20 win over the Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw 39 passes. San Francisco outrushed Green Bay 285-62. If Garoppolo had performed better in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl the 49ers would have wrapped up a victory over the Chiefs.

The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers outrushed Washington 142-86 during a 31-23 win in the Wild Card Round. Brady threw 40 passes to Heinecke's 44.The Bucs had 29 rushing attempts to Washington's 23. The Bucs outrushed the Saints 127-104 in a 30-20 win in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 33 passes to Brees's 34. The Bucs had 35 rushing attempts to the Saints' 25. The Bucs were pretty even with the Packers in rushing during the 31-23 win in the NFC Championship Game, as they had 76 to Green Bay's 67. The Bucs had 24 rushing attempts to Green Bay's 16. Brady threw 36 times to Rodgers' 48. The Bucs' outrushed the Chiefs 145-107 during their 31-9 blowout win in the Super Bowl. Brady threw 29 passes to Mahomes' 49. The Bucs had 33 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 17.

New England was outrushed 164-113 in its Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. The Patriots were outrushed 201-98 during their 2019 Wild Card Round loss (20-13) to the Titans, a game in which Tennessee had 40 rushing attempts to New England's 22, and Brady threw the ball 37 times to Ryan Tannehill's 15.

It's very nice that you found evidence of the last eight Super Bowl winners averaging over 36 attempts a game. There's also quite a bit of evidence that running it a lot helps, as it keeps you on the field longer and gives you more plays. Our leading ball-carrier, Austin Ekeler, had 206 rushing attempts this past season. Joe Mixon had 292 in the same amount of games. Derrick Henry had 219 in eight games. Josh Allen had 122 alone for the Bills--about twice as much as Justin Jackson and exactly four times as much as Joshua Kelley..

We need a better commitment to the running game.

[DerwinBosa]

Further, Herbert is better than Mahomes. Like Rosenthal, I also have about 3 ranking spots of separation between Herbert and Mahomes in favor of Herbert. Herbert is still ascending and has surpassed Mahomes by a small margin.

I have no issue with superior physical skills not being everything. I never said they were. But you are trying to make being physically superior mean nothing, which is just false as the vast majority of the time, it means a lot.

I don't care about Rosenthal's rankings any more than I do Pro Football Focus placing Joe Burrow as the best quarterback this season.

I didn't say "being physically superior" means nothing. But if you think it means as much as you claim it does when comparing Herbert to Burrow or Mahomes, then you probably also think John Elway was a better quarterback than Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Johnny Unitas, none of whom had a cannon or the ability to run that Elway possessed (although Montana was a good scrambler).

[equivocation]

The 2018 Patriots outrushed us 155-19 in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 44 times to Rivers' 51. The Patriots had 34 rushing attempts to our 12. They outrushed the Kansas City Chiefs 176-41 during their close win in the AFC Championship Game. Brady threw 46 times to Mahomes' 31, but the Patriots also had 48 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 12. They outrushed the Los Angeles Rams 154-62 during their 13-3 Super Bowl win. The Patriots had 32 rushing attempts to the Rams' 18. Tom Brady threw two touchdown passes and three interceptions that postseason, while Sony Michel rushed for 336 yards and 6 touchdowns in those three games.

In 2019 Jimmy Garoppolo attempted 19 passes during the 49ers' 27-10 Divsional Round win over the Vikings. Kirk Cousins threw 29 passes. San Francisco outrushed Minnesota 186-21. Garoppolo attempted eight passes during the 49ers' 37-20 win over the Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw 39 passes. San Francisco outrushed Green Bay 285-62. If Garoppolo had performed better in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl the 49ers would have wrapped up a victory over the Chiefs.

The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers outrushed Washington 142-86 during a 31-23 win in the Wild Card Round. Brady threw 40 passes to Heinecke's 44.The Bucs had 29 rushing attempts to Washington's 23. The Bucs outrushed the Saints 127-104 in a 30-20 win in the Divisional Round. Brady threw 33 passes to Brees's 34. The Bucs had 35 rushing attempts to the Saints' 25. The Bucs were pretty even with the Packers in rushing during the 31-23 win in the NFC Championship Game, as they had 76 to Green Bay's 67. The Bucs had 24 rushing attempts to Green Bay's 16. Brady threw 36 times to Rodgers' 48. The Bucs' outrushed the Chiefs 145-107 during their 31-9 blowout win in the Super Bowl. Brady threw 29 passes to Mahomes' 49. The Bucs had 33 rushing attempts to the Chiefs' 17.

New England was outrushed 164-113 in its Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. The Patriots were outrushed 201-98 during their 2019 Wild Card Round loss (20-13) to the Titans, a game in which Tennessee had 40 rushing attempts to New England's 22, and Brady threw the ball 37 times to Ryan Tannehill's 15.

It's very nice that you found evidence of the last eight Super Bowl winners averaging over 36 attempts a game. There's also quite a bit of evidence that running it a lot helps, as it keeps you on the field longer and gives you more plays. Our leading ball-carrier, Austin Ekeler, had 206 rushing attempts this past season. Joe Mixon had 292 in the same amount of games. Derrick Henry had 219 in eight games. Josh Allen had 122 alone for the Bills--about twice as much as Justin Jackson and exactly four times as much as Joshua Kelley..

We need a better commitment to the running game.

Blah blah fucking blah. Anyone can cherry pick a handful of examples. Football already suffers from smallsamplitis, don't make the sample smaller.

And of course playing good football leads to wins. lots of rushing yards is good. Lots of passing yards is good. But a rushing yard is not worth more than a passing yard. And the trend is that passing produces more points than rush, all other things being equal.

[Steve]

The last 8 Superbowl winners had QBs averaging well over a combined 36 attempts per game. At what point does your hypothesis get overwhelmed by evidence?

The big flaw is that you are miss using statistics. You are taking a generalization and applying it as universal. The average # of attempts is actually almost 41 per game. But that average is largely driven up by SB 51, where Brady and Edelman threw 63 passes, and it skews the overall average.

The average might be 36 passes, but a bunch of the games don't fit your pattern. How do you explain them?

SB 56 - Rams threw 41 passes vs Cin, but you can argue that maybe Cinci lost in large part because they didn't run the ball more and control and avoid the Rams pass rush.

SB 55 - TB beat KC and only threw 29 passes vs KC (49). The score was 31-9.

SB 54 - KC threw 42 passes but there was a lot of argument that young Shanaarat lost the game by not running it late and controlling the clock (hold this thought). Based on how it played out, you can argue that the passing game lost it for SF not being able to convert, or that the lack of running lost it. Either way they didn't impose their will on KC and against a weak KC defense. KC 31-20 SF

SB 53 - NE threw 35 passes in SB LIII to beat the Rams. But they ran the ball for 154 yards that was the big difference. NE 13-3 Rams

SB 52 -It kinda fits your pattern, with both teams throwing 43 and 48 passes respectively. Although again, if you bother to watch the games, the balance that Philly had helped them control the pace of the game, and keep the NE pass rush off of Foles and keep going to the run option passing game. Philly 41-33 NE 44 attempts for Philly

SB 51 - was another case of Shanarat not controlling the pace of the game and pissing it away by not even trying to run the ball in the 2nd half. NE 34-28 Atlanta. 62 attempts for winner

SB 50 - Denver only threw 23 passes. Den 24 - 10 Car. 23 passes for winner

SB 49 - Rusell Wilson threw the ball on the goalline and was intercepted NE 28 - Sea 24. 50 passes by NE

In SB 55 and SB 50 there are the bigger point differentials. The running team controlled the game and was able to control the pace of the game.

Ball is back in your court.

[RTPbolt]

Stats can probably say whatever you want. Looking only at the offense and not at what the defense had done probably skews what went on too. A D that isnt built well to stop the pass or run is good info to understand too. How about turnovers and how they occurred? Without enough of the story we can take things out of context very easily..right?

My gut says if you have a run game or a pass game that the opposing D cant slow down means you can have long clock chewing drives that keep the opposing offense off the field. A dink and dunk offense like the Cheats have lived on combined with enough runs to keep Ds guessing works. Being 1 dimensional usually ends up badly but having both keeps defenses from overloading against what a 1 dimensional team might rely on.

interesting conversation though. Its a team game though…what your offense has in a defense when they are off the field is important. Rams were majorly handicapped without Obj and Higby but the D kept giving them chances to succeed.

[equivocation]

The big flaw is that you are miss using statistics. You are taking a generalization and applying it as universal. The average # of attempts is actually almost 41 per game. But that average is largely driven up by SB 51, where Brady and Edelman threw 63 passes, and it skews the overall average.

The average might be 36 passes, but a bunch of the games don't fit your pattern. How do you explain them?

SB 56 - Rams threw 41 passes vs Cin, but you can argue that maybe Cinci lost in large part because they didn't run the ball more and control and avoid the Rams pass rush.

SB 55 - TB beat KC and only threw 29 passes vs KC (49). The score was 31-9.

SB 54 - KC threw 42 passes but there was a lot of argument that young Shanaarat lost the game by not running it late and controlling the clock (hold this thought). Based on how it played out, you can argue that the passing game lost it for SF not being able to convert, or that the lack of running lost it. Either way they didn't impose their will on KC and against a weak KC defense. KC 31-20 SF

SB 53 - NE threw 35 passes in SB LIII to beat the Rams. But they ran the ball for 154 yards that was the big difference. NE 13-3 Rams

SB 52 -It kinda fits your pattern, with both teams throwing 43 and 48 passes respectively. Although again, if you bother to watch the games, the balance that Philly had helped them control the pace of the game, and keep the NE pass rush off of Foles and keep going to the run option passing game. Philly 41-33 NE 44 attempts for Philly

SB 51 - was another case of Shanarat not controlling the pace of the game and pissing it away by not even trying to run the ball in the 2nd half. NE 34-28 Atlanta. 62 attempts for winner

SB 50 - Denver only threw 23 passes. Den 24 - 10 Car. 23 passes for winner

SB 49 - Rusell Wilson threw the ball on the goalline and was intercepted NE 28 - Sea 24. 50 passes by NE

In SB 55 and SB 50 there are the bigger point differentials. The running team controlled the game and was able to control the pace of the game.

Ball is back in your court.

I was talking about the entire season. No one averaged partial passes in a single game.

Averaged across a 17 game season the last 8 SB winning QBs averaged 620 passes per season. 672 passes for Herbert last year is not out ofbthe ordinary for a good offense. It would have been fewer if the defense was better.

The LAC offense in no way, shape, or form "passes too much".

[DerwinBosa]

Blah blah fucking blah. Anyone can cherry pick a handful of examples. Football already suffers from smallsamplitis, don't make the sample smaller.

And of course playing good football leads to wins. lots of rushing yards is good. Lots of passing yards is good. But a rushing yard is not worth more than a passing yard. And the trend is that passing produces more points than rush, all other things being equal.

Nice attempt to cover up after you got exposed for posting a silly statistic without substance.

But I'll provide more evidence for you.

In Week 12 we were losing 14-7 going into the fourth quarter against the Broncos. We ended up losing 28-13. Herbert threw the ball 44 times and our running backs had 13 rushing attempts.

In Week 17 we beat the Broncos 34-13. Herbert had 31 pass attempts and our running backs carried it 30 times.

Wow, I wonder if running the ball more was a favorable difference between the two games.

In the Week 4 win over the Raiders we rushed for 168 yards on 34 attempts, while Herbert threw it 38 times.

In the Week 18 loss to the Raiders, which we were down 20-14 heading into the fourth quarter, Herbert threw it 64 times in comparison to our running backs carrying it 19.

Hmmmmm, I wonder what the difference in those two games was...

[DerwinBosa]

Blah blah fucking blah. Anyone can cherry pick a handful of examples. Football already suffers from smallsamplitis, don't make the sample smaller.

And of course playing good football leads to wins. lots of rushing yards is good. Lots of passing yards is good. But a rushing yard is not worth more than a passing yard. And the trend is that passing produces more points than rush, all other things being equal.

More evidence:

We were leading the New England Patriots 17-16 heading into the fourth quarter. Our running backs ran 18 times for 154 yards in the game. Herbert threw it 35 times, completing only 18. We lost the game in the fourth quarter, after Herbert threw a pick-six to our former Adrian Phillips.

Do you think maybe, just maybe, we should have run it a little more?

[Steve]

I was talking about the entire season. No one averaged partial passes in a single game.

Averaged across a 17 game season the last 8 SB winning QBs averaged 620 passes per season. 672 passes for Herbert last year is not out ofbthe ordinary for a good offense. It would have been fewer if the defense was better.

The LAC offense in no way, shape, or form "passes too much".

What does that have to do with the average number of passes per game??????

Maybe the real problem is a lot of your posts just aren't very clear.

Just to join in on that TB had the most attempts this season. Is that supposed to have some great deep seeded meaning??