Herbert vs His Peers

[Guest]

Do you remember the first game of the 2020 season? The only game of his NFL career Justin Herbert didn't start. It was Tyrod Taylor against Joe Burrow in Burrow's first ever game in the NFL. At the time, we were not expecting to see Herbert play for quite awhile. He was on nobody's mind that week as the Chargers traveled to Cincinnati. Burrow was effective in his first game and he burned the Chargers' D on a sprint to the end zone from about 20 yds out. Although he didn't throw a TD pass, and the Chargers won when the Bengals' kicker missed an easy FG, you got the sense that Burrow was going to be a star QB in the NFL. So many fans on this board, who had severely criticized the decision to draft Herbert, probably thought Herbert couldn't carry Burrow's jock. Little did we know...

Okay, this is exactly the kind of stuff I am talking about when I say that a QB gets made into more than he is after his team reaches the Super Bowl. It seems to happen frequently.

Burrow absolutely sucked against us in the season opener in 2020. He posted a Total QBR for the game of 13.9, which represents an abysmal performance.

The game was handed to Burrow on a silver platter thanks to the Anthony Lynn 1, 2 , 3 kick offense featuring Tyrod Taylor, which punted or was stopped on downs short of FG range 7 times. And all Burrow could produce was 13 points on less than 200 passing yards, no TDs and an INT.

His key 4th quarter INT cost his team points as well. Missed FGs were an offset as both teams missed one.

I find it difficult to imagine that anyone thought Burrow was going to be a star based upon his performance in that game. In fact, Burrow did not have a statistically strong season in 2020 taken as a whole. This general trend continued against CHI earlier in the 2021 season as Burrow was looking terrible when he threw INTs on three straight passes for a pick 6, CHI possession at the CIN 36, and CHI possession at the CIN 9.

To his credit, he did play better this season down the stretch. He was a below average QB in 2020. He was an above average QB in 2021 and I expect that trend to continue in 2022. Herbert, by contrast, is an elite QB.

[Guest]

I agree completely his final pass was a double clutch choke. He had to make an immediate decisive quick toss to the open receiver and he froze up. The play was there. I expect he gets better at this each year though, you seem to consign him to never land. Or not - thats my read of your posts.

Add up the entire SB, if he had the same protection that Stafford got, Cincy probably wins. Again, just guessing an unknowable …

I think Burrow can get better at not holding onto the ball. There is no reason why he could not. His team is stacked with WR talent, which should continue to help him a lot. Again, I am not saying Burrow is horrible. You think he is top 10 and I think he is almost top 10. Assuming you have Burrow closer to #10 than to #1, I do not think our disagreement is huge. I think reasonable minds can disagree about whether or not QBs like Prescott and Stafford are better than Burrow. I have always stated that those are close comparisons.

There are throws Herbert makes and pass rushes that Herbert escapes and makes plays against that Burrow will never be able to make, and not just a few, but many. Burrow's ceiling will always be lower than Herbert's. The same is true when comparing Burrow to other strong armed and more athletic elite QBs like Allen and Mahomes.

I do agree that the Rams were getting to the QB quickly in the Super Bowl, but it is clear to me that there were multiple sacks that Burrow unnecessarily took prior to his symbolic final play just as happened in the playoff game against TEN.

And I found that in the regular season too without even looking for it. Who takes a sack on 4th down and goal on a called passing play by holding the ball instead of just giving his receivers a chance to come down with a jump ball like he did against the Jets?

I agree that we cannot say what would have happened had we changed protection times.

[21&500]

Just a thought,
Can we have the original post updated with Herbert's records?

[AK47]

The Burrow lead Bengals averaged 27.6 points per game on offense vs playoff bound teams.
The Herbert led Chargers averaged 29.8 points per game on offense vs playoff bound teams.

In those same games...
The Bengals defense allowed 19.3 points per game.
The Chargers defense allowed 26.3 points per game.

That's 1 whole TD difference vs Playoff teams.

[jubei]

The Burrow lead Bengals averaged 27.6 points per game on offense vs playoff bound teams.
The Herbert led Chargers averaged 29.8 points per game on offense vs playoff bound teams.

In those same games...
The Bengals defense allowed 19.3 points per game.
The Chargers defense allowed 26.3 points per game

That's 1 whole TD difference vs Playoff teams.

FTW

[jubei]

and someone like Bryant said he's the 4th best QB in the west cuz his team hasnt been over .500...pffffttt!

[Velo]

Watch these two throws from Tua to Waddle and Herbert to Guyton. Both QBs launched these throws from between their 30-35 yard line.

On Tua's throw, the ball goes maybe 45 yds in the air. He has to do a big wind up back behind his head to get the ball that far, and Waddle has to wait for it, he's facing Tua when he catches the ball.

On Herbert's throw, this ball went 65 yds in the air, and he hit Guyton in stride as Guyton was on a dead sprint to the end zone splitting the two safeties. Herbert's throw looks effortless compared to Tua's; he just slings it.

[equivocation]

Tua looked like he threw that as hard as he could.

[Maniaque 6]

On draft day two year ago, no one had seen these videos ?

[Velo]

Tua looked like he threw that as hard as he could.

Yeah, that was my impression too.

[Topcat]

Tua looked like he threw that as hard as he could.

Here's a compilation of Tua's top deep throws...not bad, but just doesn't come close to Herbie:

https://youtu.be/q0KGq1P5MEo

[Velo]

Here's a compilation of Tua's top deep throws...not bad, but just doesn't come close to Herbie:

https://youtu.be/q0KGq1P5MEo

Yeah, I saw this too. He can chuck it 50 yds, which is respectable, but that seems to be his limit. He can only dream of launching it 65 yds and hit a sprinting 4.3 WR in stride. I'm not sure Miami is going to get the most out of Tyreek Hill with Tua.