The Offensive Line - Okung Could Miss All Of Camp

[Bolt-O]

Forrest is a big, fit, athletic beast. Look at this dude at about 310#.

I can't see it, or even edit it, and I'm an admin. How were you trying to post the image?

[Boltjolt]

I can't on phone or PC

Just went on the PC, cant see it there either.

[Bolts4ever213]

I can't see it either, ill just take your word on it.

[blueman]

Are the pictures from previous seasons? Might explain why we can't see him...

[wu-dai clan]

Forrest is a big, fit, athletic beast. Look at this dude at about 310#.

That's what I am seeing ...

[Fleet]

[Boltgang74]

TT is gonna have to talk to Shraeder or Some o lineman.That or pray Pimpkins is a seriously fast learner.This shit is just too risky to our Superbowl dreams to hope one of these low draft camp bodys are gonna suddenly play great if injury happens to Okung or Tevi doesnt develop into a better RT THIS year.

[blueman]

On the plus side, not like Scott has pretty big shoes to fill. Sigh, here we go again.

[like54ninjas]

Relax people it is June

[like54ninjas]

During my pain induced insomnia tonight, I came across this article. I found the information on Oline prospects very interesting. It is fairly long but a really good, informative read.
They go through many recent draftees and mention one of my favorite IOL prospects going into this season Gage Cervenka (converted DT, Uber strength, wrestling background, plays nasty but raw).

The rise of the late-blooming offensive line prospect

ByCHARLES POWER Mar 14, 12:41 PM
3
In viewing the recently updated Top247 for the 2020 cycle, you may notice that just one offensive lineman ranks in the nation's top 20 overall prospects. This isn't by mistake. At this juncture in the recruiting cycle, we feel it's most prudent to take a measured approach in going high on offensive line prospects, given the intricacies of the position.

Recent NFL Draft results support this strategy. Historically, linemen and offensive linemen in particular have proven to be the some of the most difficult prospects to project long term and a boom or bust proposition with a higher variance of career trajectories among top prospects. Four former 247Sports Composite five-star offensive linemen have been taken in the first round of the past four NFL Drafts. No other position has seen more prospects emerge from seemingly nowhere to develop into top picks.

So why is this?

The position is highly developmental both from a physical and technical standpoint. Most linemen, especially the good ones, look quite different within a year of being on a college campus. On top of that, many have to learn new techniques or a whole new position along the front, in addition to acclimating within the overall unit. This calls for college staffs and third party evaluators (like ourselves) to make a projection that's heavily based on specific physical attributes perhaps more so than other positions.

The natural inclination is to favor offensive line prospects who appear to be "college ready" particularly from a girth perspective, seemingly eliminating guesswork and the need to project. Despite this notion, there's mounds of evidence indicating it's a faulty strategy.

Last September, I pulled some numbers from recent NFL Drafts for a piece on offensive linemen. Of the 87 offensive linemen taken in the first three rounds of the last five drafts, 21/87 were 300 pounds or more in high school, while 7/87 were 330 pounds or more and 2/87 were 350 pounds (none over 350). Just 8/87 cut weight from high school to the NFL Combine, with Germain Ifedi (a mere four-pound drop) being the only first-rounder to do so.

One of the subjects of the piece was Charles Cross, an offensive tackle prospect who at this time last year, was ranked as the No. 806 overall prospect in the 247Sports Composite. Cross was far from a complete unknown but at 6-foot-5 and weighing somewhere in the 260's, he was universally considered a three-star prospect who needed to add strength and mass.

Fast forward a few months to September, and Cross is whipping a four-star defensive linemen up and down the field. By the time the All-American Bowl rolled around in January, he had a strong claim as the best offensive line prospect in the cycle, on the heels of two weeks of dominant showings in all-star settings. While Cross rapidly ascended, other linemen who were considered to be among the nation's best just a few months prior struggled to adjust to the defensive front's quickness. Many of these players were bigger-bodied types who were tabbed as top prospects due to the size and strength they showed early on in their high school careers.

***

In a recent panel at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Los Angeles Rams COO Kevin Demoff touched on the role of athletic testing data within the player evaluation process.

"I think the place where analytics is furthest evolved in the NFL is in draft picks and who's had success, because we have years of data from the combine and 40 times and shuttle times and height and weight," he said. "You can blend that into ultimately the success of players over time."

While it's easy to dismiss as "underwear olympics" or being unrelated to the sport, nearly all of the NFL and many college programs are placing an increased emphasis on athletic testing. The proliferation of spread offenses and philosophies at all levels of football has placed an even greater emphasis on measured athleticism at every position, including offensive line. Coincidentally, the increased amount of data available (for both draft and high school prospects) makes it easier to sort players by athletic profile.

The numbers back up Demoff's claim and provide insight into why so many drafted offensive linemen tend to be much lighter as high school prospects.

In the 2018 NFL Draft class, 192 offensive line prospects generated SPARQ scores via 3Sigmaathlete.com (a weight-adjusted composite score generated from different athletic tests) from the NFL Combine and pro days. Of the offensive linemen with the top ten scores, five were selected in the first two rounds of the draft (two more were drafted with another on an active roster). From that group, Kolton Miller (5.18 40, 27.2 vertical), Frank Ragnow (4.75 shuttle), Braden Smith (5.12 40, 4.65 shuttle, 35.5 vertical), and Evan Brown(4.74 shuttle) all posted strong verified testing numbers as high school prospects. Unsurprisingly none of the ten weighed over 300 pounds as high school prospects with the group's average high school weight coming to 275.1 pounds.

The trend is even more pronounced among the 2019 draft class' top combine performers. The offensive linemen with the five best SPARQ scores at this year's combine averaged 248 pounds in high school. That group includes possible first rounders Andre Dillard(Washington State) and Garrett Bradbury (NC State) who were both listed at 240 pounds upon entering college.

The 20-yard short shuttle, which tests for short area quickness and change of direction is the most predictive athletic test for offensive linemen. According to Rotoworld's Josh Norris, 19 of the 22 offensive linemen with the best shuttle times since 2010 have been drafted with those 19 starting 85% of their games in the NFL. Dillard was the lone combine participant to crack the coveted 4.50 second mark at the combine last week.

We see similarly strong correlations with high school agility testing from not just college football's top individual offensive linemen, but top team units.

The offensive lines at Alabama, Arizona State, Clemson, Georgia, Memphis, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Washington State and Wisconsin were 2018's semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award, which is given annually to college football's top unit at the position.

High school athletic testing data is available for 23 of the 50 primary starters from the Joe Moore Award semifinalists. Just one of those 23 players (Georgia right guard Isaiah Wilson) had a high school shuttle time over 5.0 seconds. The group's shuttle times averaged out to 4.79 seconds. Additionally, 34 of the 50 starters were under 300 pounds in high school.

A few more observations:

-Jonah Williams is among the very best offensive linemen of the Nick Saban era at Alabama and was the most athletic high school prospect of the Tide's starting five, posting a 4.66 shuttle, 5.14 40 and 27.4 inch vertical at 280 pounds. Jedrick Wills and Alex Leatherwood both posted good numbers at 318 and 327 pounds respectively.

-Despite being the shortest starting five after Memphis, Clemson's group was quick and explosive, with Mitch Hyatt and Gage Cervenka (4.41 shuttle) posting 29+ inch verticals.

-There's no doubt Georgia offensive line coach Sam Pittman loves recruiting big and heavy offensive linemen. The Bulldogs rarely sign a prospect under 300 pounds. With that said, Pittman's best player and draft prospect is Andrew Thomas, who was unsurprisingly the most athletic high school offensive lineman on the Georgia roster with a 4.61 shuttle and 28.1 vertical at 6-foot-5, 326 pounds. Additionally, the most athletic high school prospect Pittman signed in his tenure at Arkansas was Frank Ragnow, who also turned out to be that group's highest drafted player, going in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

-Oklahoma took home the 2018 Joe Moore Award and we have high school testing data from three of the five Sooner starters- (potential first rounder) Cody Ford, Creed Humphrey and Dru Samia with all three positing sub 5.0 second shuttle times. It's worth noting the two starters we're missing numbers for- Bobby Evans and Ben Powers- were the two lightest as high school prospects and more than likely would've had close if not better agility times than the others.

-Maybe no staff has done a better recent job unearthing and projecting athletic offensive line prospects than Washington State (many who were unheralded). One could argue the Cougars' offensive line is tough to evaluate given the high incidence of pass sets out of two point stances within their scheme, but the recent results and talent on the 2018 front are hard to dispute. The previously mentioned Dillard has a chance to be the top offensive lineman off the board in 2019 draft. Right tackle Abraham Lucas measured 6-foot-7, 256 pounds as a high school prospect and posted an electric 4.3 shuttle, 5.03 40 and 27.2 vertical. Now 320 pounds, Lucas was named a freshman All-American and second team All Pac-12 and figures to be a serious NFL prospect in due time. Center Frederick Mauigoa had the highest vertical (32.8) of the Joe Moore finalist starters. The Cougar offensive line averaged 264.8 pounds as high school prospects.

-Wisconsin has perhaps the top reputation of churning out top offensive lines on an annual basis. Paul Chryst and offensive coordinator/OL coach Joe Rudolph are among the best at evaluating and developing at the position. The 2018 Badger group averaged 6-foot-5.5, 280 pounds as high school prospects, including a former defensive tackle (Tyler Biadasz, 270 pounds) and two former tight ends (David Edwards, Beau Benzschawel). That doesn't include redshirt sophomore Cole Van Lanen (6-foot-5, 283 pounds in high school) who was Pro Football Focus' highest graded offensive tackle in the nation for the 2018 season, despite being a rotational player. The Badgers already have four offensive linemen committed in their 2020 class. Two of the four are listed at 6-foot-7, 250 pounds and 6-foot-7, 242 pounds. The other two posted shuttle times of 4.68 seconds and 4.69 seconds as sophomores.

***

Understanding what top college offensive linemen (and future top draft picks) look like as high school prospects informs and aides our evaluation process. Video and in-person evaluations always come first, but athletic testing data serves as a valuable filter. Other factors including length and functional athleticism (by way of other sports like shot put/discus, basketball, wrestling) are also key. And there's typically significant crossover between these skills and traits.

So what's the big deal about weight?

Simply put, there is a strong correlation between weight and movement skills among high school linemen, especially if a prospect exceeds 300 pounds at an early age. Ultimately the athleticism is what comes first. If a prospect is heavy and still athletic, then the weight is ancillary, even though limited room for growth could limit the player's long term physical ceiling. But too often, high school weight and athleticism are closely linked.

Functional athleticism is typically honed in the high school years and excess weight can limit a player's odds of developing crucial skills. For example, you're much less likely to see heavy prospects play basketball and the weight limit in wrestling for most states is 285 pounds.

On the flipside, the one benefit of extra weight -- strength -- is far and away the most easily attained attribute at the college level. Strength and conditioning programs are great at increasing players' bulk and strength, not cutting weight. It's typical for new players to add 10 to 20 pounds within a month of being on campus. That weight gain, while maintaining if not improving movement skills, is the natural progression.

History tells us that strategies to increase movement skills by cutting weight and dramatically reshaping bodies upon college enrollment are far less effective and suboptimal. A player who has to focus on cardio and calorie cutting is facing an uphill climb and immediately behind the eightball. Additionally, it's difficult to retroactively gain athleticism especially off of a weight cut.

Outliers do exist. Two first-round offensive linemen from the last four NFL Drafts had high school shuttle times over 5.0 seconds. Isaiah Wynn posted a 5.06 second mark at 272 pounds and former Ereck Flowers ran a 5.14 at 295. Neither Wynn nor Flowers ran the shuttle during the pre-draft process, so it's hard to pinpoint how they improved. It's also worth noting we have high school shuttle times for seven other first-rounders from that time period (Quenton Nelson, Frank Ragnow, Billy Price, Laremy Tunsil, Ryan Kelly, Joshua Garnett and DJ Humphries), with each being under 5.0 seconds and averaging 4.71 seconds.
3COMMENTS
Contrary to popular belief, short range agility is a slightly stronger indicator with guards and centers than tackles. Arm length can mitigate some movement deficiencies on the edge. Current Baltimore Raven Orlando Brown, Jr. serves as an extreme example. A unanimous All-American at Oklahoma, Brown was viewed as a likely first round pick but tumbled to the third round following a rough combine showing. At 6-foot-8, 345 pounds, Brown severely lacks short area quickness (5.38 shuttle at the combine) but has supreme length (35 inch arms). His ultimate upside may be limited, but Brown looks like a serviceable NFL offensive tackle at this stage.

More than anything, it's evident that all involved need to recalibrate our idea of what an ideal high school offensive line prospect should look like. A player like Charles Crossshould be viewed as right on track instead of light or weak. Even with the realities of an accelerated recruiting calendar, senior year evaluations remain of utmost importance. With offensive linemen rarely starting as freshmen, college staffs should ask themselves if they'd rather their players be adding good weight or trying to follow a diet during the first year on campus. The answer seems clear.

[powderblueboy]

In short, the functional athleticism in high school for offensive lineman has a strong correlation to success in the NFL. Being very heavy at this age (300 +) often restricts the development of their athleticism.

Pipkens is a lock for the Hall-of-Fame.

[Formula 21]

Q: How are you guys working to improve your offensive line? After all, linemen win games. - Spencer Hafley, Herald
Telesco: Spencer, this has been a popular question. Michael Huston, Thomas White, Ed Mijarez, Clifford Shuster, and Brent Richardson are just some of the others who had similar inquiries. I share some of your thoughts on how our OL played in the NE playoff game. But I also saw how they played for 18 weeks, including a big-time performance in the playoffs versus a tough Baltimore defense. On a macro level, we had a 12-4 record, our QB had a career-high QB rating, and we had the most rushing yards we have had in six years (on the fewest amount of carries). On a micro level, we were sixth in the NFL in points scored, our RB group finished second in the NFL in yards per carry and fifth in the NFL in 20+ yard runs. In pass protection we were in the top 10 in least sacks allowed. None of that could have been accomplished without a productive OL. Are we satisfied and content? No. But when put in perspective, I was very pleased with our OL Coach Pat Meyer and how his group played.



Telesco: