2019 Other NFL and Super Bowl Discussion

[Guest]

I would say that Lynn ASPIRES to have a team like Shanarat Jr.'s Niner rushing attack...but to do that, he needs a partial overhaul of our O-line...

Partial?!

[Topcat]

Partial?!

LOL...thought someone would say that...I would say, that IF Okung does come back, and IF he plays the full season healthy, and IF Pouncey comes back, and IF Pouncey is healthy all 16 games, and IF Lamp holds down one of the OG spots and IF he plays most of the games this year, then the only ones we need to replace are Tevi, Feeney and possibly Scho.

[captaind]

How on earth is Kansas City installed as a 1.5 point favorite over the 49ers?! The 49ers seem like an absolute nightmare matchup for the Chiefs. They run the ball better than Titans (#2 in the NFL in rushing yards per game, #8 in yards per carry), outscored the Chiefs in the regular season, had the #1 ranked defense against the pass in terms of yards allowed and yards per attempt against, and were a top 5 team in total sacks. The Chiefs were #26 against the run in terms of total rushing yards allowed per game and #29 in terms yards per carry allowed. Houston and Tennessee were both bad defenses against the pass.

If I were to hand pick any one team in the league to beat the Chiefs, it would be the 49ers.

You're just pissed off that Mahomes has proven you wrong on every assessment you ever made about him.

[JupiterBolt]

Congratulations to Torrey Pines High School’s John Lynch! NFL Executive of the year and going to the Super Bowl!

[Guest]

You're just pissed off that Mahomes has proven you wrong on every assessment you ever made about him.

Uh, no. I was not even discussing Mahomes in my post. But if I were, I would give Kansas City the edge at the QB position. That said, I was discussing the two teams.

I see the 49ers as a pretty clearly better and more complete team than the Chiefs and one that matches up well against them too, so I am surprised by the odds.

By the way, here are two QB stat lines:

QB A: 319-484, 65.9%, 4,031 YDS, 8.3 YPA, 26 TD, 5 INT, 105.3 RTG
QB B: 341-505, 67.5%, 4,042 YDS, 8.0 YPA, 26 TD, 5 INT, 104.7 RTG

I would say those two stat lines are pretty darn similar, wouldn't you? Do you know which QB produced each stat line and when?

QB A is Patrick Mahomes in 2019. QB B is Alex Smith in 2017.

Hmmm.

[MusicMakerInMe]

How on earth is Kansas City installed as a 1.5 point favorite over the 49ers?! The 49ers seem like an absolute nightmare matchup for the Chiefs. They run the ball better than Titans (#2 in the NFL in rushing yards per game, #8 in yards per carry), outscored the Chiefs in the regular season, had the #1 ranked defense against the pass in terms of yards allowed and yards per attempt against, and were a top 5 team in total sacks. The Chiefs were #26 against the run in terms of total rushing yards allowed per game and #29 in terms yards per carry allowed. Houston and Tennessee were both bad defenses against the pass.

If I were to hand pick any one team in the league to beat the Chiefs, it would be the 49ers.

I would say there are a few key reasons:
Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league. Never count out the best quarterback in the league. 49ers we’re beat by two more agile QB’s - Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. The latter gave them fits twice. Mahomes is on another level compared to those two.

Experience. Chiefs made a big play-off run last year. Andy Reid has been to the big game. I also feel like they’ve been put in more pressure situations than the 49ers have. Along the same lines, they’ve shown they can come from behind and don’t get rattled in big games, a trait those last two New York Super Bowl teams had. Being clutch falls along those lines.

Chiefs defense is playing much better through the play-offs. Regular season stat lines don’t mean much when they’re playing inspired. They did this last season and stopped the Patriots during key third downs numerous times in the AFCCG when they had he worst 3rd down defense in the league. They brick-walled Henry and clamped down on the Texans when they needed to. It’s as if their defense has a switch and when they turn it on, they’re really good.

[powderblueboy]

Uh, no. I was not even discussing Mahomes in my post. But if I were, I would give Kansas City the edge at the QB position. That said, I was discussing the two teams.

I see the 49ers as a pretty clearly better and more complete team than the Chiefs and one that matches up well against them too, so I am surprised by the odds.

By the way, here are two QB stat lines:

QB A: 319-484, 65.9%, 4,031 YDS, 8.3 YPA, 26 TD, 5 INT, 105.3 RTG
QB B: 341-505, 67.5%, 4,042 YDS, 8.0 YPA, 26 TD, 5 INT, 104.7 RTG

I would say those two stat lines are pretty darn similar, wouldn't you? Do you know which QB produced each stat line and when?

QB A is Patrick Mahomes in 2019. QB B is Alex Smith in 2017.

Hmmm.

I think its a toss up. I do know that the 49ers secondary is not fast & KC has a very, very solid offensive line.

KC also shut down Henry and the Titan running game.

[Guest]

I would say there are a few key reasons:
Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league. Never count out the best quarterback in the league. 49ers we’re beat by two more agile QB’s - Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. The latter gave them fits twice. Mahomes is on another level compared to those two.

Experience. Chiefs made a big play-off run last year. Andy Reid has been to the big game. I also feel like they’ve been put in more pressure situations than the 49ers have. Along the same lines, they’ve shown they can come from behind and don’t get rattled in big games, a trait those last two New York Super Bowl teams had. Being clutch falls along those lines.

Chiefs defense is playing much better through the play-offs. Regular season stat lines don’t mean much when they’re playing inspired. They did this last season and stopped the Patriots during key third downs numerous times in the AFCCG when they had he worst 3rd down defense in the league. They brick-walled Henry and clamped down on the Texans when they needed to. It’s as if their defense has a switch and when they turn it on, they’re really good.

Maybe the oddsmakers are taking advantage of the perception among some that the things you have stated are true, but numerous of the things you mentioned are not true.

Mahomes was not the best QB in 2019. That is just statistically false. Mahomes finished 7th in QB rating (quality of performance) and did not lead the league in any gross production stat.

Mahomes is not the runner that either Wilson or Jackson is. Mahomes runs a 4.80 40. Wilson runs a 4.55 40. Jackson is believed to run in the 4.3s. 4.80 looks like Ben Roethlisberger (4.75), Cardale Jones (4.81), Matthew Stafford (4.81) and Baker Mayfield (4.84). When containment breaks down, Mahomes can run for a first down. In his two seasons as a starter, he has rushed for 272 yards and 218 yards. Russell Wilson has rushed for over 500 yards 4 times. Jackson rushed for 695 yards while starting only 7 games last year and rushed for over 1200 yards this season. There is simply no comparison between Mahomes and either Wilson or (especially) Jackson as a runner.

The analysis on the losses by the 49ers seems off. Wilson is a very good QB, but his stat line does not stand out in the loss by the 49ers. I would say three turnovers by the 49ers and a missed game winning FG stands out more in a narrow loss to a playoff team.

Similarly, Jackson did have a good game rushing the ball (as he did against virtually everyone), but his passing stats were minor, so on the whole it was a good game by Jackson, but not some sort of great performance. Again, the 49ers had a FG blocked in that game and lost by three points on the road against a 14-2 team firing on all cylinders at that point.

So, those losses seem more related to key errors by the 49ers against playoff caliber teams than they do to uniquely great performances by either opposing QB.

Finally, the Chiefs gave up well over 400 yards of offense to the Texans in the playoffs (388 passing yards to Watson). They managed a lower scoring game against the Titans, who use a ball control offense that tends to produce those kinds of games anyway. But at the end of the day, the Chiefs have given up 55 points in two playoff games to offenses that scored less than the 49ers. Their defense is not "really good". That is absurd.

[Biggestfan]

I'm rooting hard for the Niners. But I have a feeling the newest NFL poster boy Mahomes will get favors.

[Biggestfan]

Partial?!

And a much better Defensive line. The Niners can get pressure with 4. Both lines need to improve markedly

[Steve]

Mahommes is an elite QB outside of the pocket extending plays. He uses his legs, but it is not about his ability to run. He is a good QB in the pocket, and he has the weapons to make plays down the field, but it is magnified if he can break contain and do the scramble drill. Hill, Hardman, Watkins and Kelcie are just impossible to cover up if you have to do it too long and worry about Mahommes running. SF has to keep him in the pocket and disrupt his throwing. They have some pretty good games to copy in watching us. Mahommes worst games were against us (and Det, but that is a rounding thing). we play almost exactly the same scheme, so it should be easy for them to implement it. THey have better DL and LB personnel than we do, so it should help them get pressure on Mahommes, but they have to keep him in the pocket.

KC is probably going to struggle against SF outside running game. They are not a great run D, and their biggest run D is the fact that many teams have to stop running the ball against them when they fall behind. There are times they are not really gap sound and that they don't tackle well, and that is why GB lost yesterday.

[wu-dai clan]

And a much better Defensive line. The Niners can get pressure with 4. Both lines need to improve markedly

I would seriously consider going bonkers at Dline,
as part of a plan to keep Bosa interested in LAC.

We need a team signature, some sort of identity...make it a killer front four.
Derrick Brown.
AJ Epenesa.
Neville Gallimore.
Javon Kinlaw.
An ass kicker.

Gotta start somewhere.
I agree with you sentiments, Biggest.
We screwed Rivers ten years ago.
It started with Marcus McNeill's stenosis.

The 49ers went through quite a lot.
With Kaep they got very close to a Lombardi (think about that one !)
Tomsula lol. Baalke lol.
They completely reinvented themselves.
Chargers, you're up next.
It's a new world.
Does TT have a set ?