Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[DerwinBosa]

Give him a pain shot for gods sakes. The ribs were a valid excuse. A broken finger in your non throwing hand is not

Yeah, I'm not a Tom Brady fan, but he played well during the 2017 AFC Championship Game with 25 stitches on the thumb of his throwing hand. Brett Favre played more than half of a season with a broken right thumb and got his team to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Steve Young also played several weeks with a broken thumb on his throwing hand and got the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game. What Herbert is going through sucks, I feel for him, but let's be real here.

[BigBad]

Young Keenan and old Antonio were not exactly speed merchants.

Deebo, Kittle and Aiyuk are not 3/4 rths of an Olympic 100 m relay team.

Just a tad too much infatuation with elite speed because of Miami,
who will fade in December.

Look at the post you quoted. I said ACTUAL WEAPONS. I understand that doesn't necessarily mean just speed. The offense is massively overrated as far as talent is concerned.

[dmac_bolt]

Yeah, I'm not a Tom Brady fan, but he played well during the 2017 AFC Championship Game with 25 stitches on the thumb of his throwing hand. Brett Favre played more than half of a season with a broken right thumb and got his team to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Steve Young also played several weeks with a broken thumb on his throwing hand and got the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game. What Herbert is going through sucks, I feel for him, but let's be real here.

you tell him, tough guy! Lol …

[CanadianBoltFan]

Young Keenan and old Antonio were not exactly speed merchants.

Deebo, Kittle and Aiyuk are not 3/4 rths of an Olympic 100 m relay team.

Just a tad too much infatuation with elite speed because of Miami,
who will fade in December.

Speed has nothing to do with Deebo and Kittle being amazing after the catch and piling up yards. Something Keenan doesn't do. Aiyuk is averaging 17 yards per reception. Keenan averages 11 yards per catch over his career.

[Bolt4Knob]

Speed has nothing to do with Deebo and Kittle being amazing after the catch and piling up yards. Something Keenan doesn't do. Aiyuk is averaging 17 yards per reception. Keenan averages 11 yards per catch over his career.

He's been a very good player but I think Allens value is a bit overstated at times compared to the other receivers in the league who bring more to the field. Allen has been very good, solid steady. But the other side of the field needs a player with some sizzle and juice. Allen would even be better if he had a player that could open up things for him. Williams doesn't do that as he doesn't get open

[CanadianBoltFan]

He's been a very good player but I think Allens value is a bit overstated at times compared to the other receivers in the league who bring more to the field. Allen has been very good, solid steady. But the other side of the field needs a player with some sizzle and juice. Allen would even be better if he had a player that could open up things for him. Williams doesn't do that as he doesn't get open

100 % true.

Keenan is a very good player who has a had a great career as a great route runner and possession WR

We do not have the alpha X WR. We all like Mike, and yes he is a great jump ball artist but he isn't fast, he doesn't separate, and he doesn't stay healthy. Looking objectively I would have to say that two 1000 yard seasons in 7 years(barely over) is disappointing for an 8th overall drafted WR

[richpjr]

From the Athletic (not everyone shares the Herbert is broken thought):

Ranking NFL QBs in the biggest moments: The Athletic’s QB Reliability Index through Week 7

Leadership from the quarterback position is certainly important, but the message truly resonates when it works in tandem with on-field performance. The Vikings’ Kirk Cousins was a great example of that in Monday’s statement win over the 49ers and we’re aiming to quantify that impact in our weekly assessment of the quarterback position.

Rather than an overall evaluation of quarterback play, we’re going to focus solely on the game’s most important moments and use The Athletic’s Quarterback Reliability Index (QRI) to rank the NFL’s current primary starters in those situations.

The QRI is a model that measures quarterback performance in high-leverage situations as a way to quantify the level to which a team relies on that player’s ability when it matters most. These high-level situations include third- and fourth-down plays and late-game sequences all while filtering out plays in which the in-game win probability is greater than 80% for either team. In other words, when the game is on the line, this metric attempts to evaluate how well a quarterback has gotten the job done.

Passing- and rushing-related metrics within the model include versions of:

• Expected points added (EPA)
• Success rate (play with a positive EPA is considered a successful play)
• Win probability added (WPA)

Using the metrics, the model calculates a rating similar to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in baseball. The rating represents how many wins better the given QB has been than a replacement-level QB in the aforementioned high-leverage situations and then prorated over the course of a 17-game season.

For a more thorough evaluation, the index includes data from all games since the start of the 2022 season (for applicable players) with recent games weighted more heavily. Until more games are played, rookies and newer starters have smaller sample sizes and will be more susceptible to bigger swings. We’re solely including this season’s primary starting quarterbacks for a cleaner ranking.

1	Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	7.1
2	Jimmy Garoppolo	Raiders	6.8
3	Brock Purdy	49ers	5.8
4	Josh Allen	Bills	5.8
5	Jared Goff	Lions	5.7
6	Justin Herbert	Chargers	5.3
7	Lamar Jackson	Ravens	5.3
8	Jalen Hurts	Eagles	5.1
9	Tua Tagovailoa	Dolphins	5.1
10	Trevor Lawrence	Jaguars	4.9
11	Matthew Stafford	Rams	4.7
12	Dak Prescott	Cowboys	4.6
13	Joe Burrow	Bengals	4.3
14	C.J. Stroud*	Texans	4.3
15	Geno Smith	Seahawks	2.6
16	Kirk Cousins	Vikings	2.5
17	Desmond Ridder	Falcons	2.2
18	Daniel Jones	Giants	2.0
19	Baker Mayfield	Buccaneers	1.6
20	Gardner Minshew	Colts	1.4
21	Kenny Pickett	Steelers	1.4
22	Mac Jones	Patriots	1.4
23	Anthony Richardson*	Colts	0.9
24	Justin Fields	Bears	0.8
25	Ryan Tannehill	Titans	0.6
26	Russell Wilson	Broncos	0.5
27	Tyrod Taylor	Giants	0.4
28	Derek Carr	Saints	-0.4
29	Bryce Young*	Panthers	-1.6
30	Deshaun Watson	Browns	-1.6
31	Zach Wilson	Jets	-1.9
32	Jordan Love	Packers	-1.9
33	Sam Howell	Commanders	-2.3
34	P.J. Walker	Browns	-2.6
35	Joshua Dobbs	Cardinals	-2.8

* Rookie (only 2023 stats included)

[Bolt4Knob]

100 % true.

Keenan is a very good player who has a had a great career as a great route runner and possession WR

We do not have the alpha X WR. We all like Mike, and yes he is a great jump ball artist but he isn't fast, he doesn't separate, and he doesn't stay healthy. Looking objectively I would have to say that two 1000 yard seasons in 7 years(barely over) is disappointing for an 8th overall drafted WR

Right now - next year -- not counting dead cap - these are the salaries of Allen Mack Bosa and Williams

Mack: 23m
Bosa: 22m
Allen: 23
Williams 20

If any of them are back, I think all four would need to take a pay cut for the value they bring along with the injury concern especially for Bosa and Williams. None are worth pushing cap for. Allen should be on teh larry fitzgerald contract from next year on

[Velo]

Right now - next year -- not counting dead cap - these are the salaries of Allen Mack Bosa and Williams

Mack: 23m
Bosa: 22m
Allen: 23
Williams 20

If any of them are back, I think all four would need to take a pay cut for the value they bring along with the injury concern especially for Bosa and Williams. None are worth pushing cap for

Keenan Allen is earning $19 mil this season. He's due to earn $23.1 mil next year, but it's not guaranteed. They can cut him and take a dead cap hit of $11.6 mil. But why would they? Keenan is one of the best WRs in the league, he's playing the best football of his career. He is 5th in the league in receiving. He is averaging 96 yds per game and his completion percentage is 72 percent. He's scored 4 TDs in 6 games. All of these numbers put him an elite category among the league's WRs. He is earning every penny of his contract.

Mack is earning $22.9 mil this season and is due to earn $23.3 mil next season, the final year of his contract. I don't know if they can get out of his contract. But Mack is also having a great season. He has 7 sacks, which is 4th in the league, just two behind the league lead. He's half a sack behind Myles Garrett. The one thing the Chargers' defense does well is get to the QB. Their sack rate of 3.67 per game is 3rd in the league. And Mack has a lot to do with that, not just his sacks, but the attention he demands that allows other Charger defenders to get to the QB. So to say he's not earning his money this season is not accurate. Another thing about Mack, is that he plays every game. He has not missed a game since coming to the Chargers. In his career, he missed 2 games for the Bears in 2018 and 7 games in 2021. But he's started every other game in his career, and this is his 10th season.

[Bolt4Knob]

Keenan Allen is earning $19 mil this season. He's due to earn $23.1 mil next year, but it's not guaranteed. They can cut him and take a dead cap hit of $11.6 mil. But why would they? Keenan is one of the best WRs in the league, he's playing the best football of his career. He is 5th in the league in receiving. He is averaging 96 yds per game and his completion percentage is 72 percent. He's scored 4 TDs in 6 games. All of these numbers put him an elite category among the league's WRs. He is earning every penny of his contract.

Mack is earning $22.9 mil this season and is due to earn $23.3 mil next season, the final year of his contract. I don't know if they can get out of his contract. But Mack is also having a great season. He has 7 sacks, which is 4th in the league, just two behind the league lead. He's half a sack behind Myles Garrett. The one thing the Chargers' defense does wellis get to the QB. Their sack rate of 3.67 per game is 3rd in the league. And Mack has a lot to do with that, not just his sacks, but the attention he demands that allows other Charger defenders to get to the QB. So to say he's not earning his money this season is not accurate. Another thing about Mack, is that he plays every game. He has not missed a game since coming to the Chargers. In his career, he missed 2 games for the Bears in 2018 and 7 games in 2021. But he's started every other game in his career, and this is his 10th season.

Mack had six sacks in one game - lets see what he does the other 15 games not against the Raiders. If he finishes the year with 10 sacks and 8 come against the Raiders - - -plus one thing about Mack - the defense is still 30th in the league with him

Allen is a fine player - but for me - he will not be worth $23.1m -- I think he would be worth about $12-14m range on a per year salary. The Fitzgerald contract

End of the day for me - the Chargers can make the tough decisions this offseason and set Justin Herbert up for 3-5 years or they can push cap on older players, and not build around Herbert.

[Velo]

Allen is a fine player - but for me - he will not be worth $23.1m -- I think he would be worth about $12-14m range on a per year salary.

Allen is an elite WR. He's the only reliable weapon Herbert has right now. He is earning every penny of his contract. I don't understand why you don't see it, but that is your thing.

[jamrock]

Allen is an elite WR. He's the only reliable weapon Herbert has right now. He is earning every penny of his contract. I don't understand why you don't see it, but that is your thing.

Agree. He’s the best player on the team right now. The only guy who goes out and balls week in and week out. The only guy you can count on. Can’t count on Bosa, James, Mack or Herbert. The first 2 are non factors, the send 2 are inconsistent