2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[like54ninjas]

The #7 pick really is the only viable solution or the the #8 for not having to give up three 1st rounders. Anything more than that and your really putting sewell in a difficult place IMHO.

I do not think 3-#1’s is the minimum a move up-to #4 takes but yes #7 would cost less.

[powderblueboy]

To gThe fallacy of your approach regarding Slater is that you can always find a body type of a player (such as Staley) that has done well, but that does not prove anything. The reason why red flags are red flags is that they tend to correctly predict traits of players that may cause those players to struggle. I can find a bunch of QBs over the years that have been 6'4" and slow, but that does not mean that any of them will be the next Tom Brady or that I should conduct the draft as if they were. I can find a slow 6'2" WR that is really good and that we all know, but that does not mean I should expect every slow 6'2" WR to be very good.

What the red flag suggests is that the benchmark for OTs is 34" arm length or better. Of course, Slater is also in the bottom 20% for height and weight for OTs as well. These issues by no means guarantee that a smaller player with shorter arms will fail. Maybe the OT prospect has other traits that will allow the OT to overcome those deficiencies. However, the point is that there is reason for at least some concern and when you are talking about closely grouped prospects, the fewer the concerns, the better.

So, what I am saying is that those concerns might cause me to prefer Horn or Surtain to Slater when it comes to closely ranked players that play positions of need. I do not think that there is anything all that controversial about that point of view.

Regarding Lawrence, he is still the best prospect to come along in a generation. I still expect him to be better than Herbert. I believe the pundits calling Lawrence the second best QB in this year's draft are out of touch with reality.

Ans while I did undervalue Herbert to some degree, I did correctly have him as the best of the top 3 rookie QBs. In other words, I correctly anticipated that he would be better than Burrow and Tagovailoa, but neither I nor anyone else correctly anticipated that he would be quite as good as he was in 2020.

To get to the bottom of this argument, one needs to explain why Staley succeeded with his physical profile, and how Slater has/has not the same attributes.

i hadn't followed Staley's career. I assume he was quite technically advanced....as is Slater.

Joe Thomas had 33 inch arms and famously self described himself as not that strong.

[Bolt4Knob]

Stephen Holder from the Athletic has an article that talks about the bust rate of 1st round OTs. Telesco needs to just do his homework with the scouts and coaches, identify the right OT for the Chargers and get them at 13. Slater, Darrisaw, Little, Jenkins - do the homework, get the right player. As Holder writes, Castonzo at 22 was a very good draft pick. Thats all I am looking for. Transcendant would be optimum but above average top 10-12 in the league would be a welcome addition to the OLine.


The top 10 picks in the 2011 NFL Draft produced some of the game’s biggest stars.

One after another, the future All-Pros came flying off the board.

Cam Newton.

Von Miller.

Patrick Peterson.

Julio Jones.

It’s a list that would become something of a who’s who of the NFL for the next decade. And that’s without even including the 11th overall pick: Some guy from Wisconsin named J.J. Watt.

Really, it was a draft for the ages.

Because of that, it can be easy to overlook what happened later on in that first round, when lots of other talented players were chosen. That number includes a left tackle from Boston College who went to the Colts with the 22nd overall pick. It wasn’t a headline-grabbing move, not when compared with all the generational talent chosen earlier on.

But here’s what the Colts got in Anthony Castonzo: A 10-year, above-average starter who made one of the most important positions on the field one the Colts never had to worry about.

Whether Castonzo was matched against an elite pass rusher or a practice-squad call-up, the treatment was the same from his coaches. They offered him little blocking help from backs and tight ends, content to trust him to hold things down and capably protect his quarterback’s blindside.

He did exactly that, with generally very positive results, for a full decade.

“Anthony has had an absolutely tremendous and underrated career,” former Colts quarterback Andrew Luck told The Athletic after Castonzo’s retirement in January. “He has been a towering pillar for the Colts over the last decade and it was an honor to play with him.”

General manager Chris Ballard described Castonzo this way: “Anthony Castonzo is the most underrated left tackle in the National Football League.”

Really, Castonzo was the poster child for what you are likely to get when you draft an offensive tackle in the first round. If history is any indicator, you might not land a great player, but you have favorable odds of getting a very good one.

As the Colts look to replace Castonzo — the only left tackle they’ve known since 2011 and a player who made 144 starts for Indianapolis — we looked at two decades of NFL drafts to get a sense of what the first round has produced when it comes to offensive tackles.

Here’s what a look at the 2000 through 2020 drafts suggests about the Colts’ efforts to find a starting left tackle with their 21st overall draft pick.

Seventy-six offensive tackles were selected in the first round in that span. Of those, 12 (16 percent) made All-Pro first team at least once; 23 (30 percent) made at least one Pro Bowl; and 46 (61 percent) were starters for at least five seasons.

These are encouraging outcomes in the world of the NFL Draft, where even top-10 picks can become crapshoots. Chances are, you are not going to unearth the next Walter Jones no matter where you’re drafting. But what if you could find, well, the next Castonzo?

The Colts would happily settle for that.

Eight of those 12 All-Pro tackles selected in the first round in our sample were top-10 picks. These tend to be the can’t-miss prospects. Joe Thomas was never falling out of the top five in 2007, for instance. When he became a six-time All-Pro and was selected to 10 Pro Bowls, we’d say the Browns looked pretty smart. Same for Tyron Smith, the Cowboys’ ninth overall choice in 2011. He’s been an All-Pro twice and a Pro Bowler seven times.

But even later in the first round, where the Colts currently sit, there have been quite a few success stories at offensive tackle.

The Saints’ Ryan Ramczyk, an All-Pro in 2019 and a starter from Day 1, was the 32nd overall pick in 2017. Joe Staley was the 28th overall pick in 2007 but went to six Pro Bowls and was the 49ers’ starting left tackle until age 35. Other examples include Bryan Bulaga (23rd overall in 2010, 121 starts), Duane Brown (26th overall in 2008, 186 starts), Michael Oher (23rd overall in 2009, 110 starts) and Nate Solder (17th overall in 2011, 127 starts).

It’s important to provide some context on how the results at offensive tackle compare with other positions.

Let’s take defensive linemen, for example. There were 151 selected during our sample period. Of that number, 24 (16 percent) made All-Pro at least once and 49 (32 percent) made at least one Pro Bowl. Those numbers are actually very comparable to the offensive tackles selected.

But the bust rate is definitely higher. Consider that just 56 of those 151 defensive linemen (37 percent) were starters for five or more seasons. That’s significantly lower than the 61 percent of offensive tackles who did so.

First-round picks, 2000-2020

Tackle	16%	30%	61%
Offensive line	20%	38%	59%
Quarterback	8%	42%	37%
Running back	16%	53%	37%
Receiver	11%	27%	40%
Tight end	8%	58%	58%
Defensive line	16%	32%	37%
Linebacker	24%	47%	50%
Defensive back	19%	44%	44%

In fact, when using the five-year metric as the standard, no other position produced more long-term starters in the first round than offensive tackle during the specified timeframe.

Consider the results for defensive backs chosen in the first round. Those were also a bit boom-or-bust. There was a greater percentage of All-Pros (19 percent) and Pro Bowlers (44 percent) than was found at offensive tackle. But there was definitely a lower chance of them being a long-term starter (44 percent).

When comparing tackles to offensive linemen in general, tackles had a lower rate of All-Pro and Pro Bowl selections but had a slightly higher rate of success as long-term starters (61 percent to 59 percent). Given the importance of the tackle position, that’s not to be ignored.

What any of this means probably depends on the individual. But it does seem that projections from college to the pros are more accurate on the top college offensive tackles than other positions. That’s certainly what the greater consistency in outcomes suggests. You could also come away viewing offensive tackle as a safer position to select in the first round based on these findings.

Don’t take that to mean that this will be an easy task for the Colts. History is littered with offensive linemen who didn’t pan out. But tackles do seem to have arguably the highest floor of players selected in the first round.

And that’s good news for the Colts.

“I believe in my soul that’s where you win in this league,” Ballard said of his offensive line, “so it’s something that we have to address.”

And, with that, the search for the next Castonzo continues.

[powderblueboy]

I do think the desire to pair Burrow with Chase is huge and likely happens...but Sewell still remains a possibility. I know this...if he makes it past the Bengals...ill be on the edge of my seat. Oh man i cant wait for the draft. I can feel the excitement of that scenario already.

There are a bunch of killer high end sports cars to choose from in that top 13....i cant wait to see which shiny new toy we get.

We will do our Jersey giveaway when the draft starts.

The scouting community seems somewhat divided in their appraisal of Sewell. I would guess it comes down to the GM and that group....not a lot of high quality defensive ends
rushing the qb in the PAC 12 in 2019.

We know that Chase seems to get universal admiration....and there is more than enough tape. GMs by nature are very cautious....take the sure thing.

[Topcat]

The scouting community seems somewhat divided in their appraisal of Sewell. I would guess it comes down to the GM and that group....not a lot of high quality defensive ends
rushing the qb in the PAC 12 in 2019.

We know that Chase seems to get universal admiration....and there is more than enough tape. GMs by nature are very cautious....take the sure thing.

Yep...the scouting community and draftniks can't decide if Sewell is elite, or just plain excellent...

[Boltjolt]

OVERZEALOUS?????? So......you've met us here at TPB, eh?????

You just gotta love the Bolts!

its not a bad thing. There are players some love more than others.

[Boltnut]

Bad news fellas... since 34" arms is the prerequisite for OT, it appears we only have 3 candidates in this year's draft: Darrisaw, Leatherwood, and Spencer Brown...

[Bolt Dude]

Bad news fellas... since 34" arms is the prerequisite for OT, it appears we only have 3 candidates in this year's draft: Darrisaw, Leatherwood, and Spencer Brown...

D’Ante Smith

[La Costa Boy]

All tongue in cheek Boltjolt..........

Just did a mock at TDN. My first one since the Carolina trade. I really was wondering how that would change things up. Surprise! Picks 5 - 12 with no QB's taken, we get to 13 and Fields was still there. In that scenario i would really look to trade out, that would be interesting......New England? New Orleans? Who knows????

I got

13. Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech
47. Rousseau Edge Miami (I was shocked he was there and Tryon was gone)
77. Adebo CB Stanford
97. Yeboah TE Ole Miss
118. Banks IOL Notre Dame
158. Fehoko WR Stanford
185. Thompson CB Tenn
198. Brown CB Mich State
241. Young OT Kentucky


Yes I went heavy on OL but we know that need. Yes I went heavy on CB but the Safety market was thin at those picks and I figure that new coach, multiple looks can use them. Besides I believe it is a real point of weakness for us. Never saw an LB at our pick range worth it, so I say let TT shop the cast aways as there will be many in June/July/August.

I would take this draft IMHO.

[Topcat]

Bad news fellas... since 34" arms is the prerequisite for OT, it appears we only have 3 candidates in this year's draft: Darrisaw, Leatherwood, and Spencer Brown...

So, are Little and Jenkins now on the T-Rex list?

[Boltnut]

More bad news... TT/Lombardi have never drafted or signed any OT weighing more than 311 pounds. So that means Darrisaw and Leatherwood are off the board, too. So we're now down to Spencer Brown (311 pounds exactly!).

[Boltnut]

Dang! I forgot that Spencer Brown has only played RT.

Oh well... the class wasn't that deep anyways...