2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Bolt Dude]

This makes me feel excellent.

[TexanBeerlover]

I have a genuine question and would like genuine answer from anyone. How many extra wins per year would Sewell or Slater provide beyond the number that one of the second tier prospects would?

Now way to possibly know that answer. But Herbert would be much, much better protected. If he is protected, number of wins should rise, all things considered equal.

[Panamamike]

Now way to possibly know that answer. But Herbert would be much, much better protected. If he is protected, number of wins should rise, all things considered equal.

In the same vein there's also no way at this point to tell if Sewell is actually going to turn out to be the best offensive tackle of this draft.

[wu-dai clan]

I have a genuine question and would like genuine answer from anyone. How many extra wins per year would Sewell or Slater provide beyond the number that one of the second tier prospects would?

This is exactly the question that must be asked.

The answer is both a judgement call
and at the same time something dependent upon
things outside the control of LAC.

Who will trade with us
and
how much will it take ?

[like54ninjas]

I have a genuine question and would like genuine answer from anyone. How many extra wins per year would Sewell or Slater provide beyond the number that one of the second tier prospects would?

I don’t have that mathematical calculation as a scored criteria in my grading system. Probably should be.

The best possible protection for JH10 makes the most sense to me. A protected JH10 produces points.
Add in a physically dominant, athletically gifted 330# 20 year old kid that also excels in the screen, outside zone, and open space game of modern football. He improves all aspects of our offense’s performance.
Sewell is my #1 Overall prospect. He is worth extra draft capital to me.
We have weapons on the roster with the ability to add more.
We don’t have a OLT worthy player on the roster.
We added the best OC now let’s finish off the Oline with the best OT prospect in over a decade.

[TexanBeerlover]

In the same vein there's also no way at this point to tell if Sewell is actually going to turn out to be the best offensive tackle of this draft.

Only time will tell. Everything is based on projections, his being best in class this point in time (best in years Brandon Thorn). Sewell is still just 20 years old, that’s 20 years old. Justin Herbert is 23 years old. They already have continuity from Oregon. This pair could terrorize the league for the next 15 years.

[Maniaque 6]

Sewell or not, That OL was upgraded like no one.
Sewell would be a cherry in the sundae.

[gzubeck]

I have a genuine question and would like genuine answer from anyone. How many extra wins per year would Sewell or Slater provide beyond the number that one of the second tier prospects would?

Our 1st, 2nd and 3rd would be too much in one year. Spread the cost over two seasons and it very well might be a wise investment. I'm with you on not spending three 1st rounders on sewell. Very few players ever live up to three 1st rounders. How many wins? Well if we keep Herbert out of the hospital it could be 19 wins for one year. Just ask Joe Burrow what happens when your oline sucks. LOL!

:coffee:

[Berserker76]

I have a genuine question and would like genuine answer from anyone. How many extra wins per year would Sewell or Slater provide beyond the number that one of the second tier prospects would?

Wow, that's a tough question to answer. Too many of today's NFL games come down to the wire, where one good or bad play can change the outcome. I might be going out on a limb here, but if Sewell can give Herbert those 3 extra seconds to toss the winning score against the Bucs in next year's Super Bowl, I'm all in. Provided we don't give up more than this years 1st and 3rd, and next year's 1st pick.

[eaterfan]

I have a genuine question and would like genuine answer from anyone. How many extra wins per year would Sewell or Slater provide beyond the number that one of the second tier prospects would?

Honestly, this is the question about every player at every position. Essentially it's asking how much value does this player add compared to the alternative options. It's basically asking what WAR in baseball is trying to do. That's what front offices everywhere are trying to figure out. It's a lot harder to do in football because that is more of a team sport (baseball is mostly a sport about pitchers vs. hitters one at a time). In football it's difficult enough to figure out how much value compared to the average (or replacement level) player was added for games that already happened. It would be even more difficult when comparing two prospects.

I think it's generally why teams who have been the most successful in the draft over time are the teams that trade down and acquire more picks. If you have only a half decent idea of what will happen, you are better having more raffle tickets than not.

But here are some things that can aid you in trying to answer the question for yourself:
1. Positional value, there have been studies that show which positions correlate more with winning. For example if 2 teams each have 3 all pros, one has an all pro QB, DE, and WR that team is probably going to be more successful than a team that has its all pros at OG, ILB, and SS. You'll notice that teams tend to spend more money on these positions in FA and second contracts for their own players.
2. The draft value chart. They have figured out how many wins the average player drafted at each slot is expected to produce. They assign a value to it. So a top end tackle you'd expect to be off the board at 8 may be worth 1000 points (not sure how that converts to wins) and the player expected to be taken at 20 may be expected to produce 500 points, so however many wins the difference is.
3. Looking where the successes and busts of the position. You can find any number of metrics for success that you want - probowl selections, 2nd contracts given, top X players based on PFF grades, etc. You can use measures of failure, too. Cut by original team, played fewer than X years in the league, etc. This way you can see where the successful players from a given position comes from. It can tell you how successful evaluators are at scouting the position and the depth of the position. Positions where most of the good players are being selected in the first and second rounds probably shows the scouting is good and the depth is lacking. This means its more likely that taking the top tier guy at the position matters. OT, QB, CB all have a lot of the best players taken in the first round. Then you look at bust percentage to show how safe a pick is. CB and QB have higher bust rates in the first round. I think this has to do with scheme fits and also for QBs, teams have to overdraft because they are so important.

I'm sure I've forgotten some things to look at, but the bottom line is that it's really hard to predict how much more valuable Sewell would be over the course of 5 years than a guy like Little, Cosmi, Darrisaw, or Jenkins. To the extent than anyone can guess this, left tackle is probably the position where it will be the highest because the position has a high correlation to winning (Joe Thomas and the Browns excepted), the best players are generally taken early in the draft, and there is a relatively low bust percentage at the position.

[Bolt Dude]

I don’t have that mathematical calculation as a scored criteria in my grading system. Probably should be.

The best possible protection for JH10 makes the most sense to me. A protected JH10 produces points.
Add in a physically dominant, athletically gifted 330# 20 year old kid that also excels in the screen, outside zone, and open space game of modern football. He improves all aspects of our offense’s performance.
Sewell is my #1 Overall prospect. He is worth extra draft capital to me.
We have weapons on the roster with the ability to add more.
We don’t have a OLT worthy player on the roster.
We added the best OC now let’s finish off the Oline with the best OT prospect in over a decade.

The improvement to our 3rd & 1, 4th & 1, goal line situations will be have a tangible impact on the W/L column.

[dmac_bolt]

Do QBs really have “continuity” with their LT. If the QB is lucky, they don’t see a lot of their LT, as they generally see the LT if the LT is either pushed back into him or scrambling backwards to catch a pass rusher that ran around him.

I see the LG getting continuity with the LT, but QB? Really? I’m pro-Sewell but not if it means trading our 2nd and next year’s #1. i think the Herbie connection theme is a bit dramatic and he’d be fine with any LT that keeps defenders away from him, opens rushing holes to make the offense two-dimensional, etc.