2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[TexanBeerlover]

Down the home stretch and it boils down to the final cut line as to who the Chargers would select #13?

Two prospects stand out to me, both as bpa and as priority need. In the end, its a win win for the Chargers. Both available only because of possibly 5 QB's taken off the board, both have medical issues addressed but each team will do own evaluation, and because of those medicals neither were able to test or have their pro days. Any Guesses? In 5 years both could be seeking a second contract in the 150 million dollar range, if they show to be in top 5 for their NFL position.

[Bolt Dude]

And the anticipated early Day 2 run at OL.

Yes. I anticipate that Cosmi will be gone at #47. Like Slater, he has short arms, a high athletic profile and has faced good competition. Unlike Slater, he has a lot to learn before becoming technically sound. Radunz will also be gone.

Walker Little is the wild card.

The post-47 tackles will be those least likely to start on day 1. Probably Spencer Brown, Hudson, Christensen, Leatherwood, Eichenberg, and D’Ante Smith.

Personally, I’d take Brown or Smith for their ceilings, but a FA bridge would become a requisite.

[Bolt4Knob]

Down the home stretch and it boils down to the final cut line as to who the Chargers would select #13?

Two prospects stand out to me, both as bpa and as priority need. In the end, its a win win for the Chargers. Both available only because of possibly 5 QB's taken off the board, both have medical issues addressed but each team will do own evaluation, and because of those medicals neither were able to test or have their pro days. Any Guesses? In 5 years both could be seeking a second contract in the 150 million dollar range, if they show to be in top 5 for their NFL position.

Caleb Farley is one I think since you wrote Medicals

Darrisaw or Slater for the other

[Guest]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-BwrRCm5k

Here is he you tube video of Nick Saban and the split coverage. The beginning of the video Saban talks a lot about positioning, and Horn does very little of it.

It is worth noting that Staley inherited a bunch of good football players on D with the Rams. But he raised a good group to a group that got the most out of their talent largely because he got them focused on the little details. There is a lot that goes into that. I think Staley is going to try and do that with players this coming season, and it is that attention to technique and detail that sets coaches like Staley apart.

Horn looks the part on paper and has played at a reasonably high level. If he was an elite player, ... in and NFL that is 60% pass these days ... and his technique was really good, then he would be a top 5 pick. He isn't as tall and rangy as Richard Sherman, but he is still above average, so the people who use the eyeball test are ready to buy jeans.

Again, I am not saying that he is not a good prospect. he is. But I am saying he isn't so great that I would pass Sewell (who also has issues). At 13, we may not have that much choice. I am just saying he is not the guy at the top of my list, and that he is more of a prospect with considerable upside, but still has a way to go. Having watched him at USC (I live in South Carolina), I have seen him play a lot.

A guy like Horn might be the next great coverage CB, depending on how well he embraces Staley's new staff. If he does, he will continue to get a lot better. But remember, something like 50% or more of 1st round picks will be busts. That means a lot of other players, with considerable talent DON'T embrace their coaches, or don't to the degree that is necessary.

The one big thing that I think points to his success is that Horn got beat deep(ish) early in several games over his career. Every time that happened (at least that I saw), he would get pissed, stopped hot dogging it, and really locked onto his guy. He has the competitiveness that is necessary to be successful in the NFL. I have met a number of former NFL players and coaches over the years. The one thing that comes out if you are around them very long, if they played for any length of time, they are some of the most competitive people you will meet. Horn has that, in a good way.

I agree 100% about Sewell. I am assuming that Lawrence, Sewell, Parsons, Pitts and Chase will not be on the board at #13 overall. I have zero interest in Smith or Waddle at 1-13, especially Smith. He can be another team's injury problem. We are not going to take one of the QBs at 1-13, so then who is left?

Of those remaining, I like Horn the most, but I think it will be easier to get a solid CB that can start in round 2 than it will be to get a starting caliber OT that I trust. I do not have as high of an opinion on Little as some. I do not especially like Cosmi. Those players may work out fine, but I would be much more nervous about them than I would be a CB like Newsome, Stokes or Campbell. I am okay trading up in round 2 to get one of those CBs if there is a run on them. Heck, I normally hate trade ups, but I would be okay trading up to get Newsome late in round 1 after taking Darrisaw at 1-13.

[Bolt4Knob]

Yes. I anticipate that Cosmi will be gone at #47. Like Slater, he has short arms, a high athletic profile and has faced good competition. Unlike Slater, he has a lot to learn before becoming technically sound. Radunz will also be gone.

Walker Little is the wild card.

The post-47 tackles will be those least likely to start on day 1. Probably Spencer Brown, Hudson, Christensen, Leatherwood, Eichenberg, and D’Ante Smith.

Personally, I’d take Brown or Smith for their ceilings, but a FA bridge would become a requisite.

Walker Little is my target if the team trades back a bit in the first round. Probably means signing Villanueva or Wagner as "insurance" though.

[beachcomber]

Just wanted to pause and reflect on how much I’m enjoying this draft process. There’s no shortage of intriguing questions this year and I’ve had a good time unpacking them with y’all.

Here’s some of my favorite bones to pick:

Can Telesco pick a quality o-lineman? Tevi exceeded expectations.... before that, I liked Stephen Schilling some, and Corey Clark for that matter, and.... we are completely undistinguished post Marcus McNeill.... we can select Trey Smith and repeat history there, as think most every "OT" is risky biz this go 'round, albeit if you go by arm length, you've got about a handful or so to choose from: Darrisaw, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, D'Ante Smith, Josh Ball and Stone Forsythe.... the rest are guards (@least eventually).
Trenchers vs. shiny toy enthusiasts. am fearful we are gonna repeat FO history when we select not a receiver in round three, but a safety, in lieu of a lineman.... ask not for whom the bells toll, it tolls for thee.
How much juice does Staley get in the war room? not sure it matters, coz one of these years the onus is gonna come crashing down on Telesco's noggin'.
BPA vs. BVA vs. need. best player could be someone that doesn't hold great value for us.... trouble is if we are wise and trade down, we are still capable of passing on a very good player that could help us, ala Polamalu.
Will the Bengals go Sewell or Chase? neither.... they're gonna pass on the "tackle" w/less than 34" arms and he of variable anchor, and pass over the pass catcher w/a trade down.
Which QB/QBs are busts? most likely me thinx are Fields, Mond, Newman, Ehlinger and Costello.
Which OTs will move to guard? pretty much the all of 'em save for the handful or so of 34"+ listed above @tackle.... including Sewell, Slater, Jenkins, Tucker, Brady Christensen.
How much does arm length matter? plenty.... 'specially when you're job is on the line.
Pro day inflation numbers? always....
How much do bloodlines matter? def a +
How bad is Farley’s back? do not draft in my book, albeit did like the compare/analogy to Cromartie's situation coming out of college.... hopefully Farley endures for a lengthy NFL career.
Who’s OT3? (longterm prognostication) Darrisaw/1, Josh Ball/2, Walker Little/3 :O
Is Walker Little ready after 2 years off? it'll take'm a year, but he will be a starter for someone somewhere.... (33 3/4)
Can Sammie small school make it? Trey Lance, Richie Grant, Alim McNeill, D'Wayne Eskridge, Aaron Robinson, Milton Williams.

Anyways, just wanted to say I’m grateful.

Bolt Dude.... your addition has been a huge + here.... grateful for you too,

[wu-dai clan]

Yes. I anticipate that Cosmi will be gone at #47. Like Slater, he has short arms, a high athletic profile and has faced good competition. Unlike Slater, he has a lot to learn before becoming technically sound. Radunz will also be gone.

Walker Little is the wild card.

The post-47 tackles will be those least likely to start on day 1. Probably Spencer Brown, Hudson, Christensen, Leatherwood, Eichenberg, and D’Ante Smith.

Personally, I’d take Brown or Smith for their ceilings, but a FA bridge would become a requisite.

There's others.
:shifty:

[eaterfan]

I think the focus on LT should be finding the player who will be best in 2,3,4 years to hopefully coincide with our peaking phase, rather than worrying about who will start day 1. You can get a Villanueva as an FA if you need for next year, so if we need to develop the best guy than that is fine. That also means you can spend the #1 on a player with a much higher ceiling than you can get later on. For example a top CB, or if a WR falls there is little chance of finding a guy later who will develop better than the top 3 at both those positions.

If all you want out of the draft is an LT, then sure use the #13 on it, but from a value point of view we can pick-up more talent by waiting and getting players at positions where the talent drop off is more steep first then either use the 2nd on an LT (or if you think they will go late first, then trade 2nd + a 3rd to move to late 1st again).

I think the problem with this line of thinking is that there will be guys who develop into better guys down the road than there will be at 13. The same is true of any position, but it's especially true at LT. A vast majority of the good LTs in the league are drafted in round one or round 2. There have been plenty of players taken in past drafts who haven't needed to start on day one in round one and there will be plenty of those guys taken in round one this year. I think there are guys who will be picked in round two or three who may develop into starters. Heck, one of them may even be better than Darrisaw, Cosmi, Slater, and/or Jenkins. But we're talking about 10 guys who fit that bill and one of them who will actually do it. I guess, to summarize what I'm trying to say is that the guys who are projected to start from day one will most likely be the better players 2,3,4 years down the road, too.

Additionally, you get the 5th year locked in, if you actually do develop them, if you take them in the first round instead of the second.

I think the same thing goes for pass rushers and CBs. I don't think this applies to WRs, RBs, LBs, OGs, Cs, etc.

The issue with CBs is they have an extremely high bust rate in the first round compared to LTs.

[like54ninjas]

Bolt Dude.... your addition has been a huge + here.... grateful for you too,

Good stuff.

You consider Richie Grant (UCF) a Sammie? UCF is not a power 5 but if we had a power 6 the AAC would be it.

[MagicMamba88]

A Chat with Chargers GM Tom Telesco

[jamrock]

Arm length of LT vs arm length of RT?

[wu-dai clan]

TY MM88.

PFN Draft Guide is up.
Free Download.

I am expecting Ourlads in the snail mail any day.

Lots of sources.
Filters.
Always a nugget or two.
And disagreements.

I always like it when one pundit says
"this guy is strictly a MAN Corner."

And the next 'expert' says
"best ZONE Corner in the draft."