2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Lone Bolt]

When I visualize Woody and Nutty, I get Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau....is that crazy?

[wu-dai clan]

" I'm allergic to dust...chew !! "

[La Costa Boy]

Less than 10 days..........

[Topcat]

Take away the sacks he gave up, and he gave up fewer sacks!

LOL...I like AVT, but yep, like saying, "take away the iceberg, and the Titanic doesn't sink"...

All things considered, I still consider AVT as a solid prospect. And I do think he would be an upgrade over Tevi and Pip...

[Topcat]

It's a biased sample to begin with.

How many guys have the bulk to play OL in the NFL and not have a frame that is 6'3" or more? Pretty small number. A lot of the guys who are 6'6" or longer, just don't have the bulk. And how many of guys who are on the short arm/heavy side are athletic enough to be NFL OL, which is a pretty small subset of the overall population to begin with.

Plus, the coaching bias that believes in this nonsense is already putting guys with short arms at DT and interior OL, so not that many of them are even getting the chance.

The other thing they are doing is using the overall grade player had. So some (most) of the players on that list have very, very small sample sizes. It is hard to use a graph like that and include everyone. It would have been nice if they had color coded them by the number of pass blocking snaps or something. The normalizing thing they did was nice from a comparison standpoint, but it assumes that guys with low snap counts are just as good as 10 year starters, and PFF own work shows that OL tend to peak around year 4, so normalizing alone is not enough.

If you go to that link, the PFF writer explains how they compiled the data, and there are other charts for pass pro and run blocking:

In this figure, I've included the PFF data of every offensive tackle that played over 25% of his team's snaps in any season from 2010-2012 whose arm length I could find online. I've also plotted the data as PFF grade per 500 snaps so that guys with different amounts of snaps are directly comparable. With a linear fit, we actually see a negative correlation, where guys with longer arms perform worse in general.

But as you can see from the R-squared value on the chart (1.00 is perfect, 0 means there is no correlation), the fit is pretty terrible, so there's essentially no direct correlation between arm length and performance. Another interesting thing that you'll note is that about half of qualified tackles in the NFL have arms that are 34 inches or shorter. So not only are "short"arms not necessarily a disadvantage, but they're also not uncommon.

I can also break this down as pass blocking or run blocking. Since they're fundamentally different techniques, it would stand to reason that arm length might have a different impact on each of them.

pass pro run blocking.JPG

https://www.pff.com/news/does-arm-length-affect-ot-play

[Bearded14YourPleasure]

Take away the sacks he gave up, and he gave up fewer sacks!

They shouldn’t count when he’s going up against the best pass rusher in the conference. That’s not applicable to projecting him to the next level.

[Bolt4Knob]

LOL...I like AVT, but yep, like saying, "take away the iceberg, and the Titanic doesn't sink"...

All things considered, I still consider AVT as a solid prospect. And I do think he would be an upgrade over Tevi and Pip...

Long term I think the bar has to be higher than Pipkins and Tevi. Short term if you can get AVT in R1 and come back with say Walker Little or Dillon Radunz in R2 - thats solid. Would mean you CB in R3 (or free agency) As AVT probably can play LT this year and slide to OG the next year. Radunz or Little can take a year to get a better grasp.

My hope is that true Left Tackle is still the pick in R1

[TexanBeerlover]

If Chargers take CB, any of the big 3, while projecting top 3 LT’s are off the board #13. I could definitely roll with Dillion Radunz considering his ceiling is really high in the 2nd.

[Bolt Dude]

Long term I think the bar has to be higher than Pipkins and Tevi. Short term if you can get AVT in R1 and come back with say Walker Little or Dillon Radunz in R2 - thats solid. Would mean you CB in R3 (or free agency) As AVT probably can play LT this year and slide to OG the next year. Radunz or Little can take a year to get a better grasp.

My hope is that true Left Tackle is still the pick in R1

I’d imagine if we go AVT at 13 and OT at 47, there would be an open competition in TC. The winner takes LT. Loser is next in line at RT after Bulaga.

[Bolt4Knob]

I’d imagine if we go AVT at 13 and OT at 47, there would be an open competition in TC. The winner takes LT. Loser is next in line at RT after Bulaga.

I am good with that too. Draft your CB in R3 or R4
sign a veteran - Poole or Nelson as opposed to having the need to say sign Villanueva, Kelly, Wagner as a "bridge" guy at OT if you went CB in R1 and say RAdunz/Little in R2
Would be signing a CB as a "bridge" CB (hell it could be Richard Sherman though prefer a younger CB like Nelson or Poole)

3 OL and 2 DBs in this draft is what I am hoping for

Rapaport just had a tweet that the Giants might be looking to trade back. Not sure how Slater ranks as LT - but if he gets to 11 and the Chargers have him ranked much higher than say Darrisaw - might be worth the 3rd round comp pick to get him. But than again, if Slater makes it to 11 = probably makes it to 13 unless somebody trades up to the Giants to get him.

[Bolt Dude]

I am good with that too. Draft your CB in R3 or R4
sign a veteran - Poole or Nelson as opposed to having the need to say sign Villanueva, Kelly, Wagner as a "bridge" guy at OT if you went CB in R1 and say RAdunz/Little in R2
Would be signing a CB as a "bridge" CB (hell it could be Richard Sherman though prefer a younger CB like Nelson or Poole)

3 OL and 2 DBs in this draft is what I am hoping for

Rapaport just had a tweet that the Giants might be looking to trade back. Not sure how Slater ranks as LT - but if he gets to 11 and the Chargers have him ranked much higher than say Darrisaw - might be worth the 3rd round comp pick to get him. But than again, if Slater makes it to 11 = probably makes it to 13 unless somebody trades up to the Giants to get him.

I think that #77 spot could yield a starting boundary corner opposite Davis (see sig mock). At #47 we could land the 2nd/3rd best safety in the draft. That’s the way I see it, at least. Of course that plan depends on taking a LT at #13.

[Bearded14YourPleasure]

I’d imagine if we go AVT at 13 and OT at 47, there would be an open competition in TC. The winner takes LT. Loser is next in line at RT after Bulaga.

If we go AVT and Little then I’d have AVT battling Oday for RG, sandwich the rookie between 2 vets. Little gets all the reps at LT because that’s all he needs to get ready and long term he is the solution there.