2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Leslie Grossman]

The Queefs did what I thought they should do and expect more win the SB moves to come. All in on the last year of Mahomes rookie contract.
Ravens could also win here if they strike gold in the draft or next year in free agency.

[chargeroo]

Hahah. Been thinking about a draft publication. But i need to wrap up my life here in SD and get to Kauai full time. That will be my next venture.

While you're working on getting to Kauai, I'm working on moving to Maui. I really like Kauai but my wife has two daughters living on Maui - you know how that turns out - Maui here we come - probably a year away - if I live that much longer. If not, I'm sure her girls will help her get there.

[Fleet]

While you're working on getting to Kauai, I'm working on moving to Maui. I really like Kauai but my wife has two daughters living on Maui - you know how that turns out - Maui here we come - probably a year away - if I live that much longer. If not, I'm sure her girls will help her get there.

You aint going nowhere bruddah. You will get there. Im stoked for you. Spiritual place. We will have to meet up when im in Kauai. I have a buddy who lives in Kula. Best Orange and Silver sunsets ever.

[Xenos]

Here’s Popper breakdown of Telesco’s press conference:
https://theathletic.com/2540087/2021...ws-conference/

Chargers general manager Tom Telesco held his annual pre-draft news conference Friday morning.

Here are my takeaways.


A trade-up for Penei Sewell?
Sitting at No. 13 overall, the Chargers will have plenty of options in the first round of the draft Thursday night. They could trade down, perhaps to a quarterback-needy team. They could stay put if the right player falls to them. Or they could trade up.

What the Chargers do depends largely on what happens before their pick. And the player to watch is Oregon’s Penei Sewell, who is widely regarded as the top offensive tackle in this class. The Chargers have a very obvious need at left tackle that they must fill.

There is a scenario in which Sewell falls out of the top six. Quarterbacks are almost surely going in the first three picks to the Jaguars, Jets and 49ers, respectively. The Falcons, at No. 4, could also take a quarterback. If they do not take a quarterback, then Florida tight end Kyle Pitts seems like the likely pick. The Bengals, at No. 5, need offensive line help. But they signed Riley Reiff in free agency and drafted Jonah Williams in the first round in 2019, so they are not necessarily desperate for a tackle. Let’s say they take LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. And the Dolphins, at No. 6, take Alabama wide receiver Devonta Smith.

As I have written before, in this situation, I could see Telesco making an aggressive trade with the Lions to move up to No. 7 and take Sewell, Justin Herbert’s former Oregon teammate.

Telesco gave a really curious answer when I asked him about his general philosophy on trading down. Some organizations have adopted the trade-down as a central and fundamental part of their draft philosophy. The Ravens are a good example. Baltimore GM Eric Decosta admitted earlier this week that the draft is “a luck-driven process” and said the front office’s general strategy is to try and “trade back as much as we could in any given round.”

I mentioned these other organizations in my question to Telesco, who has never traded down in the draft.

“I guess we like to zig while others zag,” he said with a wry smile.

He paused before continuing his longest answer of the news conference.

“Generally, yeah, I’d rather go down than up,” he said. “I think you’ve got to be careful trading up. You’ve got to guard, especially nowadays, about being a little bit overconfident that you can guarantee the success of a player when you’re trading up to get one specific player. We have great evaluators here. I also think we do a great job analyzing the data and kind of putting that all together, but still having all that, the league average on players who are successful who you draft, those averages haven’t changed much. So even though we may feel like we know more now than ever, it’s really not the case. You’ve got to be careful trading up.

“Obviously we’ve done it. We haven’t done it a lot, but we’ve done it in certain cases. There’s some flexibility involved there. I would rather go down to get more picks. …Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t. But I also know that you need to be flexible. There are certain situations where we just felt the board said we need to go get a certain player. But a lot of talk goes into that, for all the reasons I said before. You’re basically saying, hey look, we really feel like this is the guy, and it’s hard to do in this business. Even though we feel like we’re good evaluators, we feel like we have all this data nowadays, and I feel like we analyze it well, which is a big part of it — not just having that data, but analyzing it the correct way. But you got to be careful. So yeah, I would prefer to go down than up. And each draft is a little bit different.”

Telesco might believe in this philosophy. But the evidence says otherwise. Telesco has not just avoided trading down. He has actually traded up in the first or second round in four of his drafts.

Telesco traded a fourth-rounder to move up seven spots in the second round in 2013 to take Manti Te’o. He made a similar deal in 2014, trading a fourth-rounder to move up from No. 57 to 50 and take Jeremiah Attaochu. In 2015, Telesco traded a fourth- and fifth-rounder to move up from No. 17 to No. 15 to draft Melvin Gordon. And last year, he dealt a third-round pick to move back into the first round from No. 37 to No. 23 to take Kenneth Murray.

Telesco is saying one thing publicly while his actions tell a different story. He has zigged while the league has zagged, opting to be aggressive moving up instead of trading down to accrue more picks and, thus, more shots at hitting on players.

This smells like a smokescreen.

If Sewell is there at No. 7, I think the Chargers will make a strong push to go get him.

Telesco offered three primary traits he is looking for in a tackle: “athletic ability, strength, football intelligence.” If you were going to pick three phrases to describe Sewell, it would be these three. Telesco also said he prioritizes these traits over arm length, which is one of the few knocks on Sewell.

The question, then, is what would it take for the Chargers to move up from No. 13 to No. 7. That, too, depends on what happens with the first six picks. If the 49ers end up taking Mac Jones at No. 3, and the Falcons pass on a QB for Pitts, there could be two elite quarterback prospects still on the board — Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. In this scenario, the Chargers would have considerable competition in moving up. The Broncos could try and jump up for a QB from No. 9. So could the Patriots from No. 15.

The more teams that want to move up to No. 7, the higher the price will be for the Chargers. And I do not think Telesco will give up a future first-round pick if the negotiation gets to that point.

But there is an alternative scenario. Say the 49ers take Fields, the Falcons take Lance, the Bengals stick with Chase and the Dolphins stick with Smith. Sewell is still there. But a much less attractive QB prospect is on the board in Jones. The Chargers would have less competition for No. 7 overall. Maybe the price doesn’t jump to a future first, and the Chargers can make the move by giving up No. 47 overall, or No. 77 and a 2022 second-rounder. I can absolutely see Telesco making either of those deals.


More on left tackle …
Earlier this month, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley gave a blunt assessment of his left tackle depth chart.

“There’s certainly a hole there right now,” he said.

Staley added that “it’s going to be certainly a position that we need to address before July.”

Trey Pipkins, a third-round pick in 2019, is the starter there right now. Staley called him a “developing player” in that same news conference.

When asked about Staley’s comments, Telesco provided a slightly different perspective.

“Well, I guess if you define that as having a starting tackle that has a number of years experience starting in this league, then yeah, maybe,” he said. “But we’re very bullish on Trey Pipkins. I was impressed with how he played late in the year. He doesn’t fit that category of having a multi-year starting at the position. But as we sit here today, yeah, we don’t have a multi-year guy at that position that’s been a starter, so that would be correct.”

Pipkins was Telesco’s pick. So it is not a surprise that Telesco is publicly supporting him. And Pipkins has shown some positive signs — just not the requisite consistency.

Staley wants a starting left tackle. He made that clear. And it is safe to assume that Telesco is aligned in that desire, despite his belief in the Pipkins.

I would not read too much into this comment. The Chargers absolutely should be taking a tackle in the first two rounds. And I think they will.


The need for safety depth
Telesco gave an interesting answer when asked about the difference in evaluating defensive backs for Staley as compared to former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

“The corners haven’t changed at all,” Telesco said. “I’d say the safeties have changed a little bit.”

Bradley ran a Cover 3-heavy scheme that he has carried with him since his time with Pete Carroll in Seattle. The safeties in this type of defense have entrenched and different roles. The free safety lines up as a single-high center fielder and mans the deep part of the field. Rayshawn Jenkins was in this role in 2019, and Nasir Adderley took it over after Derwin James got hurt in training camp in 2020. The strong safety, which was James’ role when he was healthy, lines up in the box and plays closer to the line of scrimmage as a quasi-linebacker.

Staley’s defense is the polar opposite. His defense is built off two-high safety shells. The free and strong safety most often split the deep part of the field in half, and their roles are more similar. Staley’s scheme is also more multiple. He plays more coverages. He asks his defensive backs to fill more roles. Bradley believes less is more in terms of coverages because it helps players play fast. Staley believes having more coverages is the only way to confuse and disrupt opposing quarterbacks.

Because of this, the Chargers will be looking for a slightly different breed of safety. A pure box safety does not have a ton of value in Staley’s system. James and Adderley are very versatile safeties who can play pretty much anywhere. But Alohi Gilman, a sixth-round pick last year who is currently the third safety on the depth chart, does not have that same flexibility. He is really a box safety. And with the new staff, I think his role is primarily as a special-teams player, not as a key defensive contributor.

The Chargers need to draft a minimum of one safety. I think they could end up drafting two or target another one in the undrafted free-agent market. The Chargers also could wait until Day 3 to target this position, as elite athletic traits are not as essential. Staley will be looking for intelligence and versatility out of his safeties, and there will be players available in the fourth round or later who fit that mold.


How early will they take an edge rusher?
Telesco gave this evaluation of his edge-rushing group, which includes Joey Bosa, Uchenna Nwosu and free-agent signing Kyler Fackrell: “As we sit here today, it looks pretty good. Obviously, I’m not going to talk about Joey. That one’s pretty much self-explanatory. And I think you guys pretty much know how we feel about Chenna. I think Chenna can be a high-level player in this league. We love how he plays. And it was great to add Kyler to the group, both as a pass rusher, play the run, play special teams, proven production in this league. So pretty happy there.”

Telesco gave a similar answer last year about his linebackers before he traded back into the first round for Murray.

Fackrell, who had 10.5 sacks in 2018 with the Packers, seems to fit in more as a defensive depth piece and core special-teamer. I think the Chargers will be looking for more juice behind Nwosu, who has yet to play more than 42.1 percent of the defensive snaps in a season.

Do not be surprised if the Chargers take an edge rusher with one of their first three picks.

“You can never have enough pass rushers.”

[jamrock]

Sounds like he wants Waddle or Devonta Smith

[dmac_bolt]

Is it ok if I just watch?

[Formula 21]

Sounds like he wants Waddle or Devonta Smith

Sounds like he wants his unemployment check.

[Topcat]

It was Clary who lift launched him for the kill Topcat.

Jenkins will do this every other week. You'll get tired of it.

Not good?

Every time I see this clip, I come to the same conclusion as the first time I saw it: It took two guys to block one guy...about the story of the lives of both Fluke and Clary...

[Xenos]

Bolt4Knob
These trade charts are so funny.

https://theathletic.com/2539524/2021/04/23/grading-the-trade-chiefs-acquire-orlando-brown-for-nfl-draft-picks-in-blockbuster-deal-with-ravens/

Given that there are so many moving pieces with this trade, it’s worth exploring what the Chiefs actually gave up for Brown. The truth is it’s tough to say definitively because so much depends on how different teams value draft capital.

If we go by the old Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, the Chiefs are giving up approximately the 44th overall pick for Brown. If we go by this 2018 draft value chart developed by Rich Hill, it’s more like the 37th overall pick. And if we go by this one from Michael Lopez of NFL Data & Analytics, it’s more like the 25th overall pick.

The Johnson chart is outdated, but teams still reference it when making deals. The other two charts are more relevant, given the additional data and analysis we now have. At any rate, it’s probably fair to say the Chiefs gave up a late first/early second for Brown, after accounting for all of the picks that changed hands.

[Lone Bolt]

I think we draft one. But its so obvious. TT doesn't really have the luxury of letting one fall to us. Gonna likely have to overspend to move up.

I unplug for a night, and the shit hits the fan...

Could be TT and company aren't panicking...that I'm wrong and they like all three prospects at LT, and Darrisaw is the likely pick...no, I don't think for a minute he is gone at 13...at least all three won't be.

[Panamamike]

You've been "drafted."
See PM.
Be ready to rock n mock Saturday am.
The info is posted and requires user ingenuity.
Great to have you.
How does it feel to be part of
Bills Mafia ?

Sounds good my friend I will do some research on the bills roster now

[Panamamike]

You've been "drafted."
See PM.
Be ready to rock n mock Saturday am.
The info is posted and requires user ingenuity.
Great to have you.
How does it feel to be part of
Bills Mafia ?

Kind of funny that I got the bills. I actually grew up in Southern Ontario about an hour and a half from Buffalo. A lot of my friends grew up as Bill's fans they're probably the most popular team where I'm from. Have actually went to a Bill's chargers game in Buffalo. I've never cared for the bills but I will do my best for their draft!