2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Boltjolt]

As someone with some reservation about Slater, I am not suggesting that arm length is absolutely everything, but it is an important issue. Moreover, Slater is otherwise small for an NFL OT in terms of both height and weight, which raises an additional question versus even other short armed OL players that have superior overall length and size such as Cosmi and Eichenberg. Length helps to widen the edge, which helps in protecting the QB. Weight can help a player to anchor, which is not an area of relative strength for Slater. Again, these measurables are not everything, but they do represent an objective basis to have legitimate concerns.

When it comes to first round draft picks, I do not prefer players with such readily identifiable concerns when other players (at other positions) may be available that do not have such concerns. Maybe Slater will be great in the NFL, but I would prefer to select a player that does not carry such significant concerns. I would actually rank the concerns with Slater's measurables (something that is guaranteed to be present) as more of a concern than Farley's health issues (something that may or may not be present).

Also, the often recited anecdotal evidence of Slater's performance against Young, while not entirely meaningless, does not prove that Slater will have success at the NFL level against all types of pass rushers and pass rush moves. Sometimes players do well against certain other players. And plenty of players with identifiable red flags have excelled against players in college and then struggled in the NFL against bigger, stronger, faster players to some degree when a weakness gets exposed. That is the whole point of red flags.

Finally, I disagree with the notion that Slater has the highest floor of any OL player in the draft. To me, in making that assertion, you have to be assuming that Slater will play OT in the NFL. That is far from certain. Slater has no college game film at OG. I do not see him as having a guaranteed high floor at all. I think his measurables actually make him a fairly risky player to select because they suggest that Slater could struggle at the NFL level at OT and he is unproven at OG.

Joe Staley is 6'5",295- 300 playing weight (305 @ combine) with 33" arms. He did just fine for a lot of years at LT. Slater is 6'4.25" , 305 with 33" arms w/ great feet....and did 33 reps.

I wonder how you feel about some pundits calling Lawrence the 2nd best QB in this draft while last year you were saying he was the next best thing ever and Herbert wasnt near as good. Im not trying to ruffle any feathers, just wondering if maybe you think you were overzealous there lol.

[Bolt4Knob]

I won't be a happy camper if they pass up the chance to get a good LOT again this season.

Chargers have to draft OT in either the 1st or 2nd round. Period. I still prefer the first round. Even trading down and drafting OT works

[TexanBeerlover]

Chargers have to draft OT in either the 1st or 2nd round. Period. I still prefer the first round. Even trading down and drafting OT works

I agree with one exception, and I would have agreed even a week ago about trading down to add more value, but since I’ve become convinced that could cost the Chargers the best LT prospect(s) still on the board, that fit Lombardi scheme.

no time to get cute or greedy, #13 is time to address Justin Herberts Blind Side Protection.

[Xenos]

I won't be a happy camper if they pass up the chance to get a good LOT again this season.

To be fair Roo, after Wirf was drafted, I didn’t see any other LT worth drafting that would have been a solid 10 year starter. I’m leery of Miami’s choice of Austin Jackson personally.
I feel like the depth is much better this year even though it was nowhere near as top heavy as last year.

[Guest]

Joe Staley is 6'5",295- 300 playing weight (305 @ combine) with 33" arms. He did just fine for a lot of years at LT. Slater is 6'4.25" , 305 with 33" arms w/ great feet....and did 33 reps.

I wonder how you feel about some pundits calling Lawrence the 2nd best QB in this draft while last year you were saying he was the next best thing ever and Herbert wasnt near as good. Im not trying to ruffle any feathers, just wondering if maybe you think you were overzealous there lol.

The fallacy of your approach regarding Slater is that you can always find a body type of a player (such as Staley) that has done well, but that does not prove anything. The reason why red flags are red flags is that they tend to correctly predict traits of players that may cause those players to struggle. I can find a bunch of QBs over the years that have been 6'4" and slow, but that does not mean that any of them will be the next Tom Brady or that I should conduct the draft as if they were. I can find a slow 6'2" WR that is really good and that we all know, but that does not mean I should expect every slow 6'2" WR to be very good.

What the red flag suggests is that the benchmark for OTs is 34" arm length or better. Of course, Slater is also in the bottom 20% for height and weight for OTs as well. These issues by no means guarantee that a smaller player with shorter arms will fail. Maybe the OT prospect has other traits that will allow the OT to overcome those deficiencies. However, the point is that there is reason for at least some concern and when you are talking about closely grouped prospects, the fewer the concerns, the better.

So, what I am saying is that those concerns might cause me to prefer Horn or Surtain to Slater when it comes to closely ranked players that play positions of need. I do not think that there is anything all that controversial about that point of view.

Regarding Lawrence, he is still the best prospect to come along in a generation. I still expect him to be better than Herbert. I believe the pundits calling Lawrence the second best QB in this year's draft are out of touch with reality.

Ans while I did undervalue Herbert to some degree, I did correctly have him as the best of the top 3 rookie QBs. In other words, I correctly anticipated that he would be better than Burrow and Tagovailoa, but neither I nor anyone else correctly anticipated that he would be quite as good as he was in 2020.

[Boltjolt]

The fallacy of your approach regarding Slater is that you can always find a body type of a player (such as Staley) that has done well, but that does not prove anything. The reason why red flags are red flags is that they tend to correctly predict traits of players that may cause those players to struggle. I can find a bunch of QBs over the years that have been 6'4" and slow, but that does not mean that any of them will be the next Tom Brady or that I should conduct the draft as if they were. I can find a slow 6'2" WR that is really good and that we all know, but that does not mean I should expect every slow 6'2" WR to be very good.

What the red flag suggests is that the benchmark for OTs is 34" arm length or better. Of course, Slater is also in the bottom 20% for height and weight for OTs as well. These issues by no means guarantee that a smaller player with shorter arms will fail. Maybe the OT prospect has other traits that will allow the OT to overcome those deficiencies. However, the point is that there is reason for at least some concern and when you are talking about closely grouped prospects, the fewer the concerns, the better.

So, what I am saying is that those concerns might cause me to prefer Horn or Surtain to Slater when it comes to closely ranked players that play positions of need. I do not think that there is anything all that controversial about that point of view.

Regarding Lawrence, he is still the best prospect to come along in a generation. I still expect him to be better than Herbert. I believe the pundits calling Lawrence the second best QB in this year's draft are out of touch with reality.

Ans while I did undervalue Herbert to some degree, I did correctly have him as the best of the top 3 rookie QBs. In other words, I correctly anticipated that he would be better than Burrow and Tagovailoa, but neither I nor anyone else correctly anticipated that he would be quite as good as he was in 2020.

No it doesnt prove anything but it did prove that your measurable for someone that isnt likely to be a good LT is Staley.

There are other 6'4" OTs in the league that are doing well, two drafted high last year and Joe Thomas is another who didnt have long arms who is going to be a HOF'er.

IMO great feet can compensate for shorter arms. Slater has them, so did Staley and Thomas so im really not worried about him and its not controversal at all.

As for the bottom bolded, that still remains to be seen. In three years as is when we can revisit this. As many have pointed out to you numerous times, Burrow was having a fine season til his injury. Dont care to rehash your stats on the matter.

Just wanted your thoughts on those saying Lawrence isnt the #1 QB. Not sure he will be better than Herbert but we'll see later and it dont matter anyways, same for Burrow.

[QSmokey]

A bone for the "Trade Up For Sewell" crowd.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/2021-nf...130301795.html

[Boltjolt]

[like54ninjas]

A bone for the "Trade Up For Sewell" crowd.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/2021-nf...130301795.html

Love it. I’m on board.

[gzubeck]

Love it. I’m on board.

The #7 pick really is the only viable solution or the the #8 for not having to give up three 1st rounders. Anything more than that and your really putting sewell in a difficult place IMHO.

[Fleet]

I do think the desire to pair Burrow with Chase is huge and likely happens...but Sewell still remains a possibility. I know this...if he makes it past the Bengals...ill be on the edge of my seat. Oh man i cant wait for the draft. I can feel the excitement of that scenario already.

There are a bunch of killer high end sports cars to choose from in that top 13....i cant wait to see which shiny new toy we get.

We will do our Jersey giveaway when the draft starts.

[La Costa Boy]

Joe Staley is 6'5",295- 300 playing weight (305 @ combine) with 33" arms. He did just fine for a lot of years at LT. Slater is 6'4.25" , 305 with 33" arms w/ great feet....and did 33 reps.

I wonder how you feel about some pundits calling Lawrence the 2nd best QB in this draft while last year you were saying he was the next best thing ever and Herbert wasnt near as good. Im not trying to ruffle any feathers, just wondering if maybe you think you were overzealous there lol.

OVERZEALOUS?????? So......you've met us here at TPB, eh?????

You just gotta love the Bolts!