2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[equivocation]

I would love Little at 47. The 2 years off FB stuff is bull. I still have muscle memory from HS. I've been seeing mocks with him going at 31 though.

[wu-dai clan]

You want to draft WHO at #13 ?

[Charge!]

I listened to that Athletic podcast Eaterfan recommended, and one thing really stood out.

Short armed tackles get exposed in the NFL when longer pass rushers get into their chest. At 330 lbs Sewell has enough anchor to neutralize this effect. Slater may not. Just food for thought.

Agree.... and not because im an OL expert but because experts such as Gil Brandt, Pat Kirwin, and there is an old career OL coach who trains college OL for the NFL in his OL camps..... they said Slater will be a great Guard but they dont see him as being a great LT...... He said the media buzz that Slater blocked Young, is over rated because they only went against each other for 3 plays....

[Formula 21]

You want to draft WHO at #13 ?

Yeah, and the Bolts keep throwing a smorgasbord out there for the opposing team to pick and chose from.

[eaterfan]

Rather than just guess I looked at some recent mock drafts to find out where the OTs listed earlier are going.

Methodology: I used only the latest mock from each mocker. I made sure each was released after the Darnold trade to Carolina as that may change the strategy for them and make them a team in need of a LT over a QB. Several of the mock drafts were 1 or 2 round drafts. If a player was picked after us in a round I counted them as not available in the next. Example, if Cosmi was picked at pick 20, I have him as available in round 1 for us, but not available in round 2 or 3. If he was not picked in the first round of the mock draft I would discard the results from round 2 or 3 that didn't happen because there was no mock for that round and he may have gone before us at pick 45 or something. I also discarded the PFF mock because it was what the author thought the teams should do and not what they thought the team would do. The point is to guess who will be available, not who should be available. Anyway, I have 13 mocks that include at least the first round. I think 9 of them have at least a second round. Drafts I used Peter Schrager NFL, MJD NFL, Daniel Jeremiah NFL, Mel Kiper ESPN, Jonathan Jones CBS, Ryan Wilson CBS, Chris Trapasso CBS, Josh Edwards CBS, Pete Prisco CBS, Vinnie Iyer Sporting News, Walter Football, Dane Brugeler The Athletic, Connor Orr Sports Illustrated.

Sewell: 1st round, 0% available 0/13
Slater: 1st round 31% available 4/13, 0% second round
Darrisaw: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 0% second round
Jenkins: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 0% second round
Cosmi: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 38% second round 3/8 (Connor Orr had him in the 1st so he was definitely not available for round 2), 0% in round 3
Radunz: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 71% second round 5/7, 3rd round 20% available 1/5
Brown: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 86% second round 6/7, 3rd round 25% available 1/4
Little: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 100% second round 7/7, 3rd round 60% available 3/5

Obviously, this is a small sample and you could easily move it 10% in either direction each round and be more or less accurate than what I guessed. I also probably wasted my time because I'm sure this info is available somewhere. But I had fun doing it.

[Formula 21]

You want to draft WHO at #13 ?

And when he says “you,” he means other teams. Our rate of failure on picking 2nd and 3rd round OL defies logic.

[equivocation]

You want to draft WHO at #13 ?

That's what I mean by low marginal impact of ability. Same goes for the defensive backfield.

For OL and DBs they all have to win every play. Edge and WR only have to win sometimes.

[Boltjolt]

Agree.... and not because im an OL expert but because experts such as Gil Brandt, Pat Kirwin, and there is an old career OL coach who trains college OL for the NFL in his OL camps..... they said Slater will be a great Guard but they dont see him as being a great LT...... He said the media buzz that Slater blocked Young, is over rated because they only went against each other for 3 plays....

I posted a video in here of Slater going against Chase and it's much more than three plays. I don't know where you are getting that from.
I counted at least 13 plays. That was 2019. Went against him some the year before. Maybe that is the three plays you speak of?

[Charge!]

Im already lowering my sights. I’m starting to think we get the 4th OT at 13, probably Jenkins.

Then that means we take an elite CB instead or Waddle if the CB's are gone..... no reaching for OT in first round(see Fluker)....... then we take an OT in second round.... maybe trade up a few spots to get the best of the 2nd or 3rd group......

Choosing OT's does not seem to be TT's forte...... so I would rather trade up for Sewell to get us a generational player(who is a near cant miss like Bosa) instead of relying on TT to pick from the next group or remaining iffy guys.....

[Formula 21]

Rather than just guess I looked at some recent mock drafts to find out where the OTs listed earlier are going.

Methodology: I used only the latest mock from each mocker. I made sure each was released after the Darnold trade to Carolina as that may change the strategy for them and make them a team in need of a LT over a QB. Several of the mock drafts were 1 or 2 round drafts. If a player was picked after us in a round I counted them as not available in the next. Example, if Cosmi was picked at pick 20, I have him as available in round 1 for us, but not available in round 2 or 3. If he was not picked in the first round of the mock draft I would discard the results from round 2 or 3 that didn't happen because there was no mock for that round and he may have gone before us at pick 45 or something. I also discarded the PFF mock because it was what the author thought the teams should do and not what they thought the team would do. The point is to guess who will be available, not who should be available. Anyway, I have 13 mocks that include at least the first round. I think 9 of them have at least a second round. Drafts I used Peter Schrager NFL, MJD NFL, Daniel Jeremiah NFL, Mel Kiper ESPN, Jonathan Jones CBS, Ryan Wilson CBS, Chris Trapasso CBS, Josh Edwards CBS, Pete Prisco CBS, Vinnie Iyer Sporting News, Walter Football, Dane Brugeler The Athletic, Connor Orr Sports Illustrated.

Sewell: 1st round, 0% available 0/13
Slater: 1st round 31% available 4/13, 0% second round
Darrisaw: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 0% second round
Jenkins: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 0% second round
Cosmi: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 38% second round 3/8 (Connor Orr had him in the 1st so he was definitely not available for round 2), 0% in round 3
Radunz: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 71% second round 5/7, 3rd round 20% available 1/5
Brown: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 86% second round 6/7, 3rd round 25% available 1/4
Little: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 100% second round 7/7, 3rd round 60% available 3/5

Obviously, this is a small sample and you could easily move it 10% in either direction each round and be more or less accurate than what I guessed. I also probably wasted my time because I'm sure this info is available somewhere. But I had fun doing it.

I kept running mock drafts on TDN and all three OTs were gone by 13 in at least 1/3 or my runs.

[equivocation]

Rather than just guess I looked at some recent mock drafts to find out where the OTs listed earlier are going.

Methodology: I used only the latest mock from each mocker. I made sure each was released after the Darnold trade to Carolina as that may change the strategy for them and make them a team in need of a LT over a QB. Several of the mock drafts were 1 or 2 round drafts. If a player was picked after us in a round I counted them as not available in the next. Example, if Cosmi was picked at pick 20, I have him as available in round 1 for us, but not available in round 2 or 3. If he was not picked in the first round of the mock draft I would discard the results from round 2 or 3 that didn't happen because there was no mock for that round and he may have gone before us at pick 45 or something. I also discarded the PFF mock because it was what the author thought the teams should do and not what they thought the team would do. The point is to guess who will be available, not who should be available. Anyway, I have 13 mocks that include at least the first round. I think 9 of them have at least a second round. Drafts I used Peter Schrager NFL, MJD NFL, Daniel Jeremiah NFL, Mel Kiper ESPN, Jonathan Jones CBS, Ryan Wilson CBS, Chris Trapasso CBS, Josh Edwards CBS, Pete Prisco CBS, Vinnie Iyer Sporting News, Walter Football, Dane Brugeler The Athletic, Connor Orr Sports Illustrated.

Sewell: 1st round, 0% available 0/13
Slater: 1st round 31% available 4/13, 0% second round
Darrisaw: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 0% second round
Jenkins: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 0% second round
Cosmi: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 38% second round 3/8 (Connor Orr had him in the 1st so he was definitely not available for round 2), 0% in round 3
Radunz: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 71% second round 5/7, 3rd round 20% available 1/5
Brown: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 86% second round 6/7, 3rd round 25% available 1/4
Little: 1st round 100% available 13/13, 100% second round 7/7, 3rd round 60% available 3/5

Obviously, this is a small sample and you could easily move it 10% in either direction each round and be more or less accurate than what I guessed. I also probably wasted my time because I'm sure this info is available somewhere. But I had fun doing it.

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/

You can filter mocks by players.

[eaterfan]

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/

You can filter mocks by players.

Thanks. That's awesome. I'll take a look at this soon. Can you filter by date? Things have significantly changed since the Darnold trade.

I'd also be interested in filtering out the amateur mock drafts.