And With The 5th Pick Of The NFL Draft Chargers Select....Discussion

[QSmokey]

It's a lot harder to win from the outside than it is in the middle. You don't have the sideline to restrict your movements. The number of guys who can consistently win on the outside is much smaller than the guys who can win on the inside.

Can Bowers stretch the field like the receivers can? Can Bowers take defenders out of the box like the receivers can? Can he widen the field to open up running lanes like the WRs can? Can he take the top off a defense like the WRs?

Additionally, the cost of replacement... You can sign a premium TE in FA for $15 million. And by that I mean Kelce, Andrews, Kittle type guys. That's all they make.

To get one of the top 3 WRs you have to pay $25 million +.

You can sign a TE, draft a WR, and have $20 million to sign better OL, RB, DT or whatever compared to drafting a TE and signing a WR of equal quality.

We've already signed two TEs. And the JH2 model appears to be a tough, between-the-tackles, 2 TE sets kind of thing. At least that's what I'm reading. So owning the middle of the field seems vitally important to what they are trying to accomplish.

I can also propose that we sign a couple of WRs (Renfro and Chark, who wouldn't cost much) and draft Bowers. That would set us up quite nicely in the passing game in '24 if you ask me.

Also, if we trade down to #11 (or lower), there's a good change that NONE of these guys (Bowers, MHJ, Odunze, or Nabors) will be there. But maybe that's part of the plan, too. Who knows?

[bman6555]

This is what seems lost on some here. How is Bowers *not* going to be a weapon, albeit in a different form than MHJ, Odunze, or Nabors? Those anti-Bowers-at-number-5 are so keen on one of the WRs with the very same pick. Can any of them block like Bowers can? Are they as good after the catch as Bowers is purported to be? Would they be as good a fit in what JH & Company are trying to build here? Why is Bowers NOT considered a weapon of equal value to the three WRs that a lot of posters are drooling over?

It would kind of suck if we draft Bowers @5 and guys will actually be disappointed. Tough crowd. Guess you can't please everyone.

It's all about that word value, I don't think anyone is arguing that Bowers doesn't look very good, it's more that an elite WR produces more and is more valuable to an offense than an elite TE.
The NFL has a very easy way of determining relative position value, it's via cap hits.
More valuable position = more teams are willing to spend in $$ to get an elite player.
Here are the franchise and transition tag values, which tells you the position values of elite players, except at LB where the value is all in edge rushers, not ILBs (who would otherwise be at safety levels or so). Same issue for OL, where that is all OT, not OG or C.

QB	$38,301,000	$34,367,000
LB	$24,007,000	$19,971,000
DT	$22,102,000	$18,491,000
WR	$21,816,000	$19,766,000
DE	$21,324,000	$19,076,000
OL	$20,985,000	$19,040,000
CB	$19,802,000	$17,215,000
S	$17,123,000	$13,815,000
TE	$12,693,000	$10,878,000
RB	$11,951,000	$9,765,000
ST	$5,984,000	$5,433,000

Based on that an elite WR is worth about 70-80% more than an elite TE.

Another way to look at it is let's say the Chargers have $15 million in cap to spend on above their #5 pick and want to get a starting WR and TE.
If you take Bowers at #5, $15 million for a WR gets you a Cortland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, or Gabe Davis.
Compare that if you take MHJ/Nabers/Odunze, $15 million on a TE gets you a Kittle/Kelce/Goedert/Andrews.
Which combo would you rather have?

[DerwinBosa]

Understood, of course. But, given the direction the HC and FO *appear* to be taking with this team, I ask again: Why is Bowers not considered to be a weapon of equal value as compared to the Big 3 WRs? In other words, why is taking Bowers @5 not a "value" pick? If we trade down to #11 I, for one, don't think Bowers will be there.

He may not be, but I think a lot of posters are looking at it from the viewpoint of how much the elite wide receivers make versus the top tight ends. Elite tight ends such as Travis Kelce are much less expensive than the likes of Tyreek Hill. If we draft an elite tight end over an elite wide receiver we don't get the best value. I'm not looking at it that way, since after Harrison is gone I have very little interest in Nabers, Odunze, and Brock, but I think that plays a big part in the argument against Bowers at #5.

[QSmokey]

I guess if we're defining "value" as "salary", then I have no argument.

But I was defining "value" as "scheme fit". Not saying that a blue chip WR doesn't fit what JH2/Ortiz are trying to accomplish. But Bowers - from what I've been able to determine - seems to be a *better* fit. And I guess you could take this a step further: If all four guys turn out to be great players on their respective rookie contracts, who would you rather be trying to sign to a second contract?

[bman6555]

I guess if we're defining "value" as "salary", then I have no argument.

But I was defining "value" as "scheme fit". Not saying that a blue chip WR doesn't fit what JH2/Ortiz are trying to accomplish. But Bowers - from what I've been able to determine - seems to be a *better* fit. And I guess you could take this a step further: If all four guys turn out to be great players on their respective rookie contracts, who would you rather be trying to sign to a second contract?

If the WRs and Bowers all turn out great it is a lock that Bowers would be the cheapest and easiest to sign on a second contract.

If you're looking at "scheme fit", yes you can say that Harbaugh likes TEs more than others, but I don't think there is a coach in the league that would rather have an elite TE1 over an elite WR1.

[Boltjolt]

It's all about that word value, I don't think anyone is arguing that Bowers doesn't look very good, it's more that an elite WR produces more and is more valuable to an offense than an elite TE.
The NFL has a very easy way of determining relative position value, it's via cap hits.
More valuable position = more teams are willing to spend in $$ to get an elite player.
Here are the franchise and transition tag values, which tells you the position values of elite players, except at LB where the value is all in edge rushers, not ILBs (who would otherwise be at safety levels or so). Same issue for OL, where that is all OT, not OG or C.

QB	$38,301,000	$34,367,000
LB	$24,007,000	$19,971,000
DT	$22,102,000	$18,491,000
WR	$21,816,000	$19,766,000
DE	$21,324,000	$19,076,000
OL	$20,985,000	$19,040,000
CB	$19,802,000	$17,215,000
S	$17,123,000	$13,815,000
TE	$12,693,000	$10,878,000
RB	$11,951,000	$9,765,000
ST	$5,984,000	$5,433,000

Based on that an elite WR is worth about 70-80% more than an elite TE.

Another way to look at it is let's say the Chargers have $15 million in cap to spend on above their #5 pick and want to get a starting WR and TE.
If you take Bowers at #5, $15 million for a WR gets you a Cortland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, or Gabe Davis.
Compare that if you take MHJ/Nabers/Odunze, $15 million on a TE gets you a Kittle/Kelce/Goedert/Andrews.
Which combo would you rather have?

I'm sure the Chiefs regret paying Kelce more than any of their receivers. Or the Niners paying their TE a lot while shopping Aiyuk.
If they help you win a SB, who cares if he was picked at 5 or 11?

No matter who you draft at 5 will get the same contract and a 6 mil cap hit.

Doubt we are signing anyone for 15 mil.

[bman6555]

I'm sure the Chiefs regret paying Kelce more than any of their receivers. Or the Niners paying their TE a lot while shopping Aiyuk.
If they help you win a SB, who cares if he was picked at 5 or 11?

If Chiefs could have paid Hill the same as Kelce, or if Aiyuk would agree to the same money as Kittle the TEs would be the ones shipped out in a heartbeat.
Each team decides what the most efficient way of getting the most talent under the cap is.
Rarely is it a straight up comparison of the same salary and deciding which of two guys is better.
For example do you keep the guy who may only be 80% as good, but makes 50% of the salary. If you have cap space, you keep the better player, but if you're tight then you need to spend efficiently and keep the cheaper guy.

This is why QBs on rookie deals are the most valuable as you get a huge discount on their in-game value.
Hortiz's job is to get the most value out of that #5. He has to figure out does he end up with a better team if he spends it to draft a player, or is trading down better.

[Boltjolt]

If Chiefs could have paid Hill the same as Kelce, or if Aiyuk would agree to the same money as Kittle the TEs would be the ones shipped out in a heartbeat.
Each team decides what the most efficient way of getting the most talent under the cap is.
Rarely is it a straight up comparison of the same salary and deciding which of two guys is better.
For example do you keep the guy who may only be 80% as good, but makes 50% of the salary. If you have cap space, you keep the better player, but if you're tight then you need to spend efficiently and keep the cheaper guy.

This is why QBs on rookie deals are the most valuable as you get a huge discount on their in-game value.
Hortiz's job is to get the most value out of that #5. He has to figure out does he end up with a better team if he spends it to draft a player, or is trading down better.

Depends on what the coaches feel is more important.

The Chiefs can afford Hill. They just paid 158 mil to their DT Chris Jones, 101 guaranteed.

Traded their CB before having to pay him. Kept Kelce, drafted a WR in round 2 three times since 2019.
Andy Reed isn't a guy spends high on WRs.
Best receiver he had in Philly all those years was TO via trade.

TEs are important in Harbaughs system. Signed two, still need another.

Niners shopping Aiyuk, keeping Kittle. Aiyuk is 25. Kittle is 30 and they had an out this year.

Value is in the eye on the Head Coach/ GM and their moves speak the value. And you can't argue SB appearances and annual playoff appearances.

[jamrock]

Depends on what the coaches feel is more important.

The Chiefs can afford Hill. They just paid 158 mil to their DT Chris Jones, 101 guaranteed.

Traded their CB before having to pay him. Kept Kelce, drafted a WR in round 2 three times since 2019.
Andy Reed isn't a guy spends high on WRs.
Best receiver he had in Philly all those years was TO via trade.

TEs are important in Harbaughs system. Signed two, still need another.

Niners shopping Aiyuk, keeping Kittle. Aiyuk is 25. Kittle is 30 and they had an out this year.

Value is in the eye on the Head Coach/ GM and their moves speak the value. And you can't argue SB appearances and annual playoff appearances.

Andy Reid does WR by committee. Belichick basically did that too but always had a guy as Reid does with Kelce. The guy you could count on for money plays. Tyreek is a stud but Andy doesn't require that. It's a smart approach especially as WR salaries escalate. And for all Andy's success in Philly he did t get past the nfccg until they added TO.

Right now we have 2 WRs. 1 is a fairly solid guy and the other can't be counted on. We need to add 2-3 WRs thru a combo of draft and FA. We also need a reliable TE.

[21&500]

If the WRs and Bowers all turn out great it is a lock that Bowers would be the cheapest and easiest to sign on a second contract.

If you're looking at "scheme fit", yes you can say that Harbaugh likes TEs more than others, but I don't think there is a coach in the league that would rather have an elite TE1 over an elite WR1.

We might have that 1 unique head coach that would.

[21&500]

Poor man's Nabers = Roman Wilson
Poor man's MH2 = Keon Coleman
Poor man's Odunze = Ja'lyn Polk
Poor man's Thomas Jr. = Xavier Leggett

Poor man's Bowers = none found

[blueman]

Good arguments all ways, poor JH, he’s gonna “get it so wrong” no matter how he plays it lol.