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  • 21&500
    Bolt Spit-Baller
    • Sep 2018
    • 10636
    • A Whale's Vajayjay
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    Great read thanks
    G-Ro knows.

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    • FoutsFan
      Registered Charger Fan
      • Feb 2019
      • 2521
      • Birmingham AL
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      Originally posted by Xenos View Post
      sonorajim and FoutsFan this article provides more of what I'm thinking about with regards to analytics in coaching. Analytics cannot determine the right play to use (at least not yet). It's best usage so far is determining binary choices ie. going for it on 4th down versus punting, or going for a TD versus a field goal. The infamous Frank Reich's decisions in the recent Colts vs Bills playoff game is the example used.

      Reich was ranked EdjSports’ top decision-maker in the 2020 season. That means he topped its “critical call index."

      The real problem with analytics is they work fantastic over the course of a baseball season, they can abandon you in the playoffs. Just like in football, they abandoned Reich. You have to use your football instincts and feel for the individual game. The statistics can mean nothing in an individual game though, that is where Reich needed to understand what his players were seeing on the field and use that info as well.

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      • Xenos
        Registered Charger Fan
        • Feb 2019
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        Originally posted by FoutsFan View Post

        The real problem with analytics is they work fantastic over the course of a baseball season, they can abandon you in the playoffs. Just like in football, they abandoned Reich. You have to use your football instincts and feel for the individual game. The statistics can mean nothing in an individual game though, that is where Reich needed to understand what his players were seeing on the field and use that info as well.
        I can’t speak on baseball since I don’t really follow the nuances of that sport (Go Padres btw!). But in football, we’ve seen analytics win a Super Bowl with Doug Pederson and the Eagles in 2017. With Reich, analytics isn’t what backfired against him in the playoffs. As the article mentioned, what hurt him was the play calling and player execution. His decision to do a toss play to Taylor on 3rd down made it harder when he went for it on 4th down. And yet despite this play calling mistake, Michael Pittman still had a chance to catch that TD on 4th down. The biggest backfire that turned the game, however, also the neutral zone penalty on the Colts defense that helped extend the Bills drive and lead to a TD given up.

        In terms of going with instincts, I understand and agree with the theory. The problem is that a lot of coaching instincts are based on old school mentality aka preconceived notions of the game in the past that tend to skew conservative when making crucial decisions. Best case in point is Lynn. Did you know that he was also fed probabilities by Shamash during the game? And yet when it came to making the key decisions that could help us win a game, he went with his instincts and played not to lose instead.

        Analytics isn’t perfect. If it was we wouldn’t need coaches. We would just have robots or AI making the decisions. However, given the complications of football, you still need someone to scheme and put the players in the best position to succeed. And of course, it probably helps if you have the talent to pull off your 4th down decisions. Andy Reid’s aggressiveness, for example, has gone up because of Mahomes versus when he had Alex Smith.

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        • Bolt4Knob
          Registered Charger Fan
          • Dec 2019
          • 12365
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          Originally posted by Xenos View Post

          I can’t speak on baseball since I don’t really follow the nuances of that sport (Go Padres btw!). But in football, we’ve seen analytics win a Super Bowl with Doug Pederson and the Eagles in 2017. With Reich, analytics isn’t what backfired against him in the playoffs. As the article mentioned, what hurt him was the play calling and player execution. His decision to do a toss play to Taylor on 3rd down made it harder when he went for it on 4th down. And yet despite this play calling mistake, Michael Pittman still had a chance to catch that TD on 4th down. The biggest backfire that turned the game, however, also the neutral zone penalty on the Colts defense that helped extend the Bills drive and lead to a TD given up.

          In terms of going with instincts, I understand and agree with the theory. The problem is that a lot of coaching instincts are based on old school mentality aka preconceived notions of the game in the past that tend to skew conservative when making crucial decisions. Best case in point is Lynn. Did you know that he was also fed probabilities by Shamash during the game? And yet when it came to making the key decisions that could help us win a game, he went with his instincts and played not to lose instead.

          Analytics isn’t perfect. If it was we wouldn’t need coaches. We would just have robots or AI making the decisions. However, given the complications of football, you still need someone to scheme and put the players in the best position to succeed. And of course, it probably helps if you have the talent to pull off your 4th down decisions. Andy Reid’s aggressiveness, for example, has gone up because of Mahomes versus when he had Alex Smith.
          This is just my theory - but the more times a coach puts his team in those positions (going on 4th down, going for 2) - my guess they will be more proficient. If the only time your team is going on 4th down is near the end of the game or going for 2 because you are down 8 with 25 seconds and you score a touchdown and need the two - not sure how proficient you will be

          Thats why if the Chargers score first this upcoming season - well the first touchdown, even if the other team is up 3-0 - I say go for two. Show the team you have the confidence in them they will execute the play

          As was stated, the problem wasn't Reich not kicking the FG - the problem was the third down play.

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          • Boltjolt
            Dont let the PBs fool ya
            • Jun 2013
            • 26838
            • Henderson, NV
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            Originally posted by Xenos View Post

            I can’t speak on baseball since I don’t really follow the nuances of that sport (Go Padres btw!). But in football, we’ve seen analytics win a Super Bowl with Doug Pederson and the Eagles in 2017. With Reich, analytics isn’t what backfired against him in the playoffs. As the article mentioned, what hurt him was the play calling and player execution. His decision to do a toss play to Taylor on 3rd down made it harder when he went for it on 4th down. And yet despite this play calling mistake, Michael Pittman still had a chance to catch that TD on 4th down. The biggest backfire that turned the game, however, also the neutral zone penalty on the Colts defense that helped extend the Bills drive and lead to a TD given up.

            In terms of going with instincts, I understand and agree with the theory. The problem is that a lot of coaching instincts are based on old school mentality aka preconceived notions of the game in the past that tend to skew conservative when making crucial decisions. Best case in point is Lynn. Did you know that he was also fed probabilities by Shamash during the game? And yet when it came to making the key decisions that could help us win a game, he went with his instincts and played not to lose instead.

            Analytics isn’t perfect. If it was we wouldn’t need coaches. We would just have robots or AI making the decisions. However, given the complications of football, you still need someone to scheme and put the players in the best position to succeed. And of course, it probably helps if you have the talent to pull off your 4th down decisions. Andy Reid’s aggressiveness, for example, has gone up because of Mahomes versus when he had Alex Smith.
            Right it doesn't always work. The game the Raiders lost by running the clock down and leaving 19 seconds on the clock, Gruden said was a analytics move.

            They lost on a FG with 19 seconds left lol. Well, actually 1 second but their D caved.
            Gus has his work cut out for him.
            Last edited by Boltjolt; 02-14-2021, 11:10 AM.

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            • Xenos
              Registered Charger Fan
              • Feb 2019
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              Originally posted by Boltjolt View Post

              Right it doesn't always work. The game the Raiders lost by running the clock down and leaving 19 seconds on the clock, he said was a analytics move.

              They lost on a FG with 19 seconds left lol. Well, actually 1 second but their D caved.
              Gus has his work cut out for him.
              Yup. The players still need to execute. Freaking Ryan Fitzpatrick of all people doing that to your D lol.

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              • Boltjolt
                Dont let the PBs fool ya
                • Jun 2013
                • 26838
                • Henderson, NV
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                Originally posted by Xenos View Post
                Yup. The players still need to execute. Freaking Ryan Fitzpatrick of all people doing that to your D lol.
                With a no look head twisting pass. No idea how he got that pass in the right direction and lucky his WR was WIDE open.

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                • wu-dai clan
                  Smooth Operation
                  • May 2017
                  • 13300
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                  Fire the Analytics Coach !
                  We do not play modern football.

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                  • Boltdiehard
                    The Precious
                    • May 2019
                    • 2412
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                    Originally posted by wu-dai clan View Post
                    Fire the Analytics Coach !
                    Always good to practice and it is the off-season.

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                    • like54ninjas
                      Registered Charger Fan
                      • Oct 2017
                      • 8211
                      • Great White North
                      • Draftnik
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                      The hits keep coming to the New Orleans Saints coaching staff, which lost Michael Wilhoite to the rebuilding Los Angeles Chargers. L.A. hired Wilhoite away to coach linebackers for first-year head coach Brandon Staley; he previously served as the Saints defensive assistant in 2020 and special teams assistant in 2019, so this is a big jump for him.

                      It’s also a return to the West Coast for Wilhoite, where his NFL career started with the San Francisco 49ers as a player back in 2011. He carved out a seven-year playing career with the 49ers and Seattle Seahawks before retiring after the 2017 season and transitioning to coaching, where he was hired in New Orleans to help Saints special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi.

                      Wilhoite is the fourth member of the Saints coaching staff to leave for new opportunities this offseason — with more departures possible as organizations retool around the league. Previous losses include Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbelland defensive backs coach Aaron Glenn, both hired by the Detroit Lions, as well as quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi, who will be joining Wilhoite with the Chargers.

                      So far, the only vacancy the Saints have filled is in the secondary, by adding widely-respected coach Kris Richard. It’ll be fascinating to see how New Orleans continues to reload its own coaching staff in the weeks ahead.
                      My 2021 Adopt-A-Bolt List

                      MikeDub
                      K9
                      Nasir
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                      • wu-dai clan
                        Smooth Operation
                        • May 2017
                        • 13300
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                        Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post
                        The hits keep coming to the New Orleans Saints coaching staff, which lost Michael Wilhoite to the rebuilding Los Angeles Chargers. L.A. hired Wilhoite away to coach linebackers for first-year head coach Brandon Staley; he previously served as the Saints defensive assistant in 2020 and special teams assistant in 2019, so this is a big jump for him.

                        It’s also a return to the West Coast for Wilhoite, where his NFL career started with the San Francisco 49ers as a player back in 2011. He carved out a seven-year playing career with the 49ers and Seattle Seahawks before retiring after the 2017 season and transitioning to coaching, where he was hired in New Orleans to help Saints special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi.

                        Wilhoite is the fourth member of the Saints coaching staff to leave for new opportunities this offseason — with more departures possible as organizations retool around the league. Previous losses include Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbelland defensive backs coach Aaron Glenn, both hired by the Detroit Lions, as well as quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi, who will be joining Wilhoite with the Chargers.

                        So far, the only vacancy the Saints have filled is in the secondary, by adding widely-respected coach Kris Richard. It’ll be fascinating to see how New Orleans continues to reload its own coaching staff in the weeks ahead.
                        Maybe them being in salary cap hell will lead to OL transactions involving us...trades...snagging of salary dumps...etc.
                        We do not play modern football.

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                        • 21&500
                          Bolt Spit-Baller
                          • Sep 2018
                          • 10636
                          • A Whale's Vajayjay
                          • CMB refugee
                          • Send PM

                          Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post
                          The hits keep coming to the New Orleans Saints coaching staff, which lost Michael Wilhoite to the rebuilding Los Angeles Chargers. L.A. hired Wilhoite away to coach linebackers for first-year head coach Brandon Staley; he previously served as the Saints defensive assistant in 2020 and special teams assistant in 2019, so this is a big jump for him.

                          It’s also a return to the West Coast for Wilhoite, where his NFL career started with the San Francisco 49ers as a player back in 2011. He carved out a seven-year playing career with the 49ers and Seattle Seahawks before retiring after the 2017 season and transitioning to coaching, where he was hired in New Orleans to help Saints special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi.

                          Wilhoite is the fourth member of the Saints coaching staff to leave for new opportunities this offseason — with more departures possible as organizations retool around the league. Previous losses include Saints tight ends coach Dan Campbelland defensive backs coach Aaron Glenn, both hired by the Detroit Lions, as well as quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi, who will be joining Wilhoite with the Chargers.

                          So far, the only vacancy the Saints have filled is in the secondary, by adding widely-respected coach Kris Richard. It’ll be fascinating to see how New Orleans continues to reload its own coaching staff in the weeks ahead.
                          Is Staley being a former qb turned D coordinator becoming a trend where coaches get more experience on opposite sides of the ball?
                          this is a crazy infusion of young coaches that were former players, like it a lot
                          G-Ro knows.

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