2021 Official Chargers Season Discusssion

[Xenos]

What about Feiler at RT, Jaimes at LG and Kelemete at RG ?

They really don’t want to mess with the left side of the line. If anything it’ll eventually be Jaimes at RG over Schofield.

[like54ninjas]

They really don’t want to mess with the left side of the line. If anything it’ll eventually be Jaimes at RG over Schofield.

Correct

[wu-dai clan]

They really don’t want to mess with the left side of the line. If anything it’ll eventually be Jaimes at RG over Schofield.

IMV we will resign Oboushi and continue to develop Jaimes as our third OG.

It's a bit frustrating, but we are talking about a midround prospect, albeit promising in our eyes.

[dmac_bolt]

They really don’t want to mess with the left side of the line. If anything it’ll eventually be Jaimes at RG over Schofield.

They overvalue the left side if defenses crush the right side every snap. Just a theory ….

[blueman]

If they say he isn't ready, he isn't ready. Doesn't sound like he is an upgrade if he isn't ready.

That would make sense to me if what they say about Norton were true. Dude looks like the walking definition of not ready, yet they play him. Guess they aren’t so worried about his development.

[powderblueboy]

5. Brenden Jaimes will be the starting RG by the end of the season
Jaimes was a fifth-round pick out of Nebraska. And while the Chargers are trying to give him time to develop before inserting him into the starting lineup, injuries have forced their hand. Michael Schofield is not the answer at right guard, either this season or for the future. Jaimes spent his entire college career playing tackle, and so the move to guard will be an adjustment. But at least with a rookie you have a high ceiling and the potential for ascension

And yet, Schofield always gets respectable PFF numbers: why?

[Critty]

If they say he isn't ready, he isn't ready. Doesn't sound like he is an upgrade if he isn't ready.

Staley said this week that the best way to development his rookies is to actually play them. He mentioned Jaimes being active last week was a step toward having him ready to go.

So, the possibility of Jaimes replacing Norton to see if that improves the protection is closer to reality now that Jaimes is active on GameDay.

Again, if Norton struggles vs Eagles, I hope they decide to put the rookie in at RT. Sure it could get worse or be the same, but it also can get better or even much better and Staley won't actually know what it looks like until he makes the move.

[Xenos]

Slightly off topic but this is an article breaking down the Chiefs problems and how maybe the analytics that we know regarding passing it more on first down isn’t always reliable. But I think it speaks more broadly to trends. You do need some semblance of balance. Mostly I’m thinking about how it relates to our offense recently especially with the use of zone coverages preventing us from really using more deep passes.

https://theathletic.com/2930703/2021/11/05/with-the-chiefs-are-we-seeing-the-limits-of-pass-heavy-offense-in-the-nfl-bills-seahawks-provide-clues/

No NFL team could match the Kansas City Chiefs for sheer pass-happy offensive firepower over the past three seasons.

With Patrick Mahomes throwing to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and friends, the Chiefs from 2018-20 led the NFL in conventional and advanced stats alike. Most points, most expected points, most touchdowns, highest explosive-pass rate — name a metric reflecting excellence on offense, and the Chiefs were probably leading the league or near the top. More than any team, they understood the value of passing and had the personnel to maximize its edge.

Eight games into the 2021 season, the Chiefs still rank No. 1 in passing frequency on early downs, early in games, but they are also leading the league in turnovers. They rank 23rd in explosive-pass rate, including 32nd over the past four weeks. Kansas City has failed to exceed 20 points in three of its past four games. The Chiefs scored at least 21 in all but two of Mahomes’ previous 50 regular-season starts. They are 4-4 after barely beating the New York Giants on Monday night, 20-17.

What once appeared effortless for the Chiefs’ offense has turned into a grind. Could it be too much of a good thing?

For years, the analytics community has urged teams to explore the limits of passing frequency instead of focusing on establishing the run. The Chiefs and Buffalo Bills obliged. Both reached great heights in 2020 using frequent passing on early downs to exploit defenses’ tendency to respect the run (the Seattle Seahawks joined them for a while).

Defenses have increasingly responded by loading up on coverages featuring 2-high shells to guard against the explosive pass. Buffalo bogged down against Pittsburgh in a Week 1 upset defeat, but the Bills are riding out the early turbulence thanks to a league-leading defense, a more well-rounded receiving corps and a shift toward running the ball on early downs. The Chiefs have kept their foot pressed on the passing accelerator, only to lose traction and risk sliding off the road to a third consecutive Super Bowl in the absence of an equalizing defense.

Have the Chiefs run up against the limits of pass frequency? If Kansas City cannot succeed consistently with the NFL’s most pass-oriented attack, what hope is there for teams with lesser quarterbacks, lesser weaponry and lesser coaches — especially as defenses continue to incorporate concepts popularized by Vic Fangio to better combat the pass?
Common strategy for Chiefs opponents


Defenses facing Kansas City are playing more 2-deep coverages, which include 2-man (man-to-man with 2 deep safeties), cover 2 zone, cover 4, cover 6 (combination of cover 2 and 4), and cover 7 (bracket coverages).

From 2020 to 2021, the Chiefs have seen a 15-percent increase in defenses showing them 2-deep shells — from 75 percent to 90 percent (highest in the league). They rank sixth in EPA per pass attempt against these coverages in 2021, but only 16th when opponents rotate into 1-deep alignments after the snap, according to Pro Football Focus.

When defenses rotate in this way, they typically play coverages such as cover 1-robber and 3-buzz weak. Although these coverages don’t fall into the 2-deep family, the effect has sometimes been the same against the Chiefs, as opposing strong safeties have set up deep enough to prioritize coverage over run support.

Week 2, 5:36 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10



On this play, the Chargers showed 2-deep before the snap with both safeties lined up more than 13 yards from the line of scrimmage. They showed a 2-deep shell but rotated into a variation of cover 1 (man-to-man with one deep safety and a robber).

After the snap, the weak-side safety rotated down to play the robber, assisting against in-breaking routes. Even though this coverage was classified as 1-deep coverage, the weak-side safety was playing more than 10 yards off of the line of scrimmage and was not in position to play the run.

When defenses show 2-high and rotate into 1-high, the Chiefs’ EPA per pass attempt drops from 0.18 (sixth) to 0.09 (16th), according to PFF. These defenses make it harder for the Chiefs to hit Hill or Kelce on deep crossers. They also create uncertainty for Mahomes because of the disguise. Kelce in particular has seen his production drop on these types of plays. He has only two receptions for 32 yards when targeted at least 10 yards downfield on crossers and other in-breaking routes. That is down from past production on these plays through eight games.

Week 8, 14:01 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-8


On this play, the Giants lined up in a 2-deep shell pre-snap. They were playing a lot of cover 2 zone throughout the night, and this alignment resembled cover 2 or cover 6 (combination of cover 2 and cover 4). But looks can be deceiving.

After the snap, the weak-side safety rotated down and played the hook zone so he would take any deep crosser coming from the strong side. The safety was in optimal position to cover any deep crosser because he was already sitting in the area that crossers normally attack.

There is more happening to the Chiefs than “defenses are stopping Patrick Mahomes by lining up in 2-deep shells,” but it’s one root of their problems. Their explosive play rate has dropped significantly. Defenses are sitting back and taking away deep shots, and there is less room for Mahomes to create openings when he scrambles.

The Chiefs are seeing much more zone coverage this season (70 percent) than even two years ago (55 percent). Their average air yards per pass has fallen by a full yard from last season.



Kansas City’s offense is still able to move the ball, but the team has been forced to run more plays per drive (7.2 on average, up from 6.5 last season and 6.0 in 2019). More plays means more chances for negative plays in the absence of explosive gains. The Chiefs, despite posting what is by far their lowest three-and-out rate since at least 2000, are leading the league in turnover percentage per drive by a wide margin (23.4 percent, with the Jets next at 18.8 percent).

As the chart below shows, the Chiefs are gaining more than 15 yards on pass attempts just 12.7 percent of the time (on plays outside the opponent’s 15-yard line). That ranks 25th in the league and isn’t much better than the 32nd-ranked Chicago Bears. That’s a huge decline from recent seasons, when Kansas City never ranked worse than fourth.



The Chiefs’ inability to strike for big plays has seemed to frustrate Mahomes into forcing the issue, leading to turnovers.

“He is used to guys running free and (using) man beaters,” an offensive coach who has studied the Chiefs said. “They showed a couple clips Monday night, good shots where the initial read was running free, wide open against zone coverage, and he got off it and went somewhere else. That is not his thing. He is used to getting back there and bouncing around and having someone free.”

With the increase in 2-deep shells, the Chiefs would ideally counter with more running. They have yet to do so meaningfully. The table below shows the Chiefs leading the NFL this season and ranking sixth among all teams since 2000 in pass frequency on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time remaining and score differential exert more influence on tendencies. The Mahomes-era Chiefs fill three of the five pass-happiest slots. The 2020 Bills are also in the top 10, but they’ve dropped from nearly 65 percent pass in those situations last season to about 58 percent in 2021. The league average is 54 percent pass.

2000-21 Cook Index Leaders

1	Pittsburgh Steelers	2018	67.1%
2	Kansas City Chiefs	2019	66.8%
3	Kansas City Chiefs	2020	66.3%
4	Green Bay Packers	2011	66.2%
5	Kansas City Chiefs	2021	65.8%
6	New Orleans Saints	2013	65.1%
7	Buffalo Bills	2020	64.7%
8	Indianapolis Colts	2013	63.8%
9	Green Bay Packers	2016	63.4%
10	Detroit Lions	2011	63.3%

Chiefs not the only ones facing these issues


The “Cook Index” concept referenced above traces its roots to the “Let Russ Cook” phenomenon surrounding Seattle’s Russell Wilson last season. Seattle was known as a run-heavy team, but through eight games last season, the Seahawks passed a league-high 65.6 percent of the time on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games. It was a dramatic departure from just two seasons earlier, when Seattle was the run-heaviest team on the Cook Index since the Tim Tebow-era Denver Broncos. The Seahawks were “letting Russ cook” like never before, and the results were spectacular at the 2020 midpoint: first in offensive points per game (34.0), touchdowns per game (4.5) and points per drive (3.0).

The production would not last. Seattle ranked between 16th and 18th in those categories over the final eight games of the 2021 season. There were several reasons, including a schedule that forced Seattle to play teams with better defenses. But as the season progressed, the Seahawks’ difficulties passing the ball against 2-deep coverages emerged as a source of frustration. An inability to find the right adjustments played a role in coach Pete Carroll’s decision to replace coordinator Brian Schottenheimer after the season.

The Seahawks have yet to establish much of an offensive identity under new coordinator Shane Waldron, partly because Wilson has been on injured reserve. In five games with Wilson in the lineup, Seattle pivoted toward its former run-heavy identity, passing just 50.5 percent of the time on early downs in the first 28 minutes. That rate would rank 26th through eight games. Seattle’s explosive pass rate rebounded from a middling 16.5 percent last season to 22.5 percent in Wilson’s five starts. The team’s EPA per play retreated, however.

Kansas City was first and Buffalo ranked second on the Cook Index last season. The Bills maintained their elite offensive production through last season, but they’ve been a different kind of team so far in 2021: less frequent passing on early downs, less efficient production on offense, slightly lower explosive-pass rate, greater diversity of target share and, critically, much better defensive support to let Buffalo control games whether or not its offense is dominating.

The Bills are averaging 0.04 EPA per play on offense, down from 0.10 last season, but their points per game and points per drive have actually increased. That is partly because Buffalo has improved from 16th in defensive EPA last season to first so far in 2021. The Bills lead the league in average starting field position (their own 33) and number of drives starting in opponent territory (16, tied with Tampa Bay).

The Bills have faced 2-high defense on 76 percent of snaps this season, ranking seventh. That is a significantly lower rate than what the Chiefs have faced (90 percent) despite having a similar offensive approach. This figure is partly due to the natural tendencies of the defensive coordinators Buffalo has faced. The Bills faced Miami’s aggressive, blitz-heavy defense twice, for example. Also, the Bills are increasingly willing to run the ball in neutral situations, while defenses must account for Allen as a runner in the option game so they can’t sit back in 2-deep shells as often. The Bills’ worst game of the season was in Week 1, when the Steelers ignored the run, sat back in coverage and played soft fronts. Pittsburgh played its third-and-long defense for most of the game.

Week 1, 13:27 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10



This play was from the beginning of the third quarter, on first-and-10. The Bills were only up in three points. The run is a real threat here, but the Steelers had two deep safeties and only two defensive linemen in three-point stances. They lined up in these soft fronts so that they could create confusion to pressure Allen. When defenses don’t respect the run, there’s less of a need to structure their front, which makes them less predictable.
What the Chiefs can do


The Chiefs’ rushing rate in neutral situations hasn’t changed much, despite spending the offseason adding offensive linemen who can run block, including left tackle Orlando Brown, guard Joe Thuney and center Creed Humprey. Kansas City has invested in becoming more physical, but the Chiefs haven’t shifted more to the run. They are running the ball even less in the red zone.

When the Chiefs have run, they have done so primarily from the shotgun, which limits the run game when a team’s quarterback isn’t a primary running threat. Mahomes is athletic, but Reid isn’t calling read options with him. And when the Chiefs call run-pass options (RPOs), which is frequently, Mahomes typically chooses to throw. Some of the runs he does choose fail to hit downhill quickly. Kansas City runs a lot of outside zone from shotgun, which can lead to the back failing to attack the edge at an optimal angle.

Week 8, 12:36 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10



Here, the Chiefs came out in 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends, one receiver). They were under center, in a running formation, but the Giants didn’t seem to think the Chiefs would run the ball, or they just didn’t care. The Giants were right. Even against this look, the Chiefs passed the ball.

Committing to the run in practice and being patient with it in games hasn’t been Reid’s style. His Philadelphia teams frequently leaned hard toward the pass, which can be a great thing unless defenses stop respecting the run altogether (Philly ranked No. 1 on the Cook Index during Reid’s tenure with the Eagles).

“The problem is, you’ve got to be more patient with the run, and it’s hard,” the coach said. “There is no way Andy is going to be patient with the run, and if you run the ball that much (more), your scoring is going to go down. The thing is, your margin of victory can stay about the same. It just takes discipline.”

The Chiefs want to give Mahomes more opportunities to create plays, but the results have shown that they have to do a better job of adjusting to what the defense is giving them.

Chiefs Air Yards Per Target

Tyreek Hill	12.9	12.9	9.9
Travis Kelce	9.0	8.5	8.0
Mecole Hardman	11.1	10.7	6.9
Totals	10.6	10.6	8.6

Another problem with the Chiefs offense is that they don’t have a receiver who can beat one-on-one coverage when Kelce and Hill get doubled. Sammy Watkins was an integral part of their offense when he was healthy. They’ve elected to trust the development of Mecole Hardman, but he hasn’t been able to get open on a consistent basis, remaining more of a gadget player.

Week 8, 9:39 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-12



Here, the Giants played cover 7, man-match coverage that allows the defense to bracket both Kelce and Hill. The Patriots were able slow down the Chiefs with these types of coverages in the past, and teams are using similar tactics now, daring players other than Hill and Kelce to beat them.



In the diagram above, Hardman and Byron Pringle have one-on-one coverage, but both were unable to create any separation, as Kelce and Hill were bracketed inside.

The Chiefs signed Josh Gordon in hopes that he might provide a No. 2 wide receiver option, but he hasn’t made much of an impact so far.

It seems very 1970s to encourage a team with elite passing and receiving personnel to hand it off more frequently, but if an offense never ran the ball on early downs, every down would feel more like third down, when the defense knows a pass is almost surely coming. That’s when defenses get most creative with their fronts and coverages. When defenses can create even a little bit of confusion down after down, it adds up, which could explain why Mahomes looks so out of rhythm right now. To force defenses to be more predictable, they have to make the run somewhat of a threat.

The Chiefs’ downturn over the past four games isn’t a large enough sample to say for sure we are seeing the limits of how far a high-volume passing attack can go if defenses trend toward softer coverages. The thought does come to mind, however, especially when two other teams with top quarterbacks, Buffalo and Seattle, have experienced their own bumps. How far can the rest of the league push it if teams with Mahomes, Wilson and Allen have had their issues?

[chargeroo]

I don't think Schofield has been bad. If he had a better RT next to him he'd be pretty decent. I think we all want to have a better OL so bad that we may be over-valuing Jaimes. We're hoping but we don't really know. IMO, they should have kept Jaimes at OT and coached him at playing on the right side. It's not like they didn't know Beluga had trouble staying on the field.

[powderblueboy]

"Trey Pipkins is not anywhere close to being a full-time NFL player. He has been overmatched in his limited snaps as a sixth offensive lineman this season. Calais Campbelltossed Pipkins like a rag doll on one of those reps early in the Ravens game. He was inactive for the first time all season against the Patriots, and there was a reason for that. Pipkins simply does not provide any value."

I don't expect Pip to make the team next year. He might be waived immediately after the draft or free agency.
He is one of these athletic big guys who simply are never going to be strong enough to compete in the NFL.

Does anyone remember the failed final two minutes drive against Oakland a few years back?
With Tevi & Pip as the OTs, and Raider pass rushers pinning back their ears, everyone here came down on Rivers.
The interior was equally dreadful.

They need to put up a PR statue at Chargers park.

[Bolt4Knob]

"Trey Pipkins is not anywhere close to being a full-time NFL player. He has been overmatched in his limited snaps as a sixth offensive lineman this season. Calais Campbelltossed Pipkins like a rag doll on one of those reps early in the Ravens game. He was inactive for the first time all season against the Patriots, and there was a reason for that. Pipkins simply does not provide any value."

I don't expect Pip to make the team next year. He might be waived immediately after the draft or free agency.
He is one of these athletic big guys who simply are never going to be strong enough to compete in the NFL.

Does anyone remember the failed final two minutes drive against Oakland a few years back?
With Tevi & Pip as the OTs, and Raider pass rushers pinning back their ears, everyone here came down on Rivers.
The interior was equally dreadful.

They need to put up a PR statue at Chargers park.

Its been said often - and maybe he tried but damn, Telesco didn't do PR any favors with his OLines and both AJ and TT didn't do PR any favors with their selections for head ball coach

As for Pipkins - -he might as well be on the PS at this point. Sign a damn veteran who is better. Jeez - if he is inactive tomorrow -- there is no reason for him to be on the active roster

[Xenos]

5. Brenden Jaimes will be the starting RG by the end of the season
Jaimes was a fifth-round pick out of Nebraska. And while the Chargers are trying to give him time to develop before inserting him into the starting lineup, injuries have forced their hand. Michael Schofield is not the answer at right guard, either this season or for the future. Jaimes spent his entire college career playing tackle, and so the move to guard will be an adjustment. But at least with a rookie you have a high ceiling and the potential for ascension

And yet, Schofield always gets respectable PFF numbers: why?

Because it’s PFF and their grading system doesn’t always make sense?