Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[Guest]

We're talking about MIKE Williams, right? His first 4 seasons are almost identical to Tyrell Williams, so I don't want to be confused.

I'd love for him to be great and tough to replace, but he has one (1) season over 800 yards in his career and 17 total touchdowns. 800 yards (maybe) shouldn't cost $18 million.

We also don't need Palmer to replace Williams right off the bat. You don't need a one for one replacement. You need the dropoff to be offset by improvements from Parham, Johnson, Guyton, and Palmer. I don't think it will be impossible to replace.

Though I think your take on Mike Williams is flawed and undervalues him (do you really think Mike Williams is not a 1,000 yard receiver on another team that has a less featured WR1), I am not suggesting that Mike Williams is worth $18M per season. I am suggesting that he is significantly better than Palmer. Maybe Palmer proves me wrong this year, but that is how I see it so far.

So, if the plan is to use Palmer to replace Williams, we need a new plan. Teams generally do not get better by getting worse.

My view is that Palmer potentially represents great quality as a #5 WR. He does not represent great quality as a #2 WR.

Thus, in my view, it would be useful to draft a Mike Williams replacement with an early pick in next year's draft, assuming that Mike Williams and the team cannot work out a new contract.

[Guest]

Once again, Palmer has gotten deep on first/2nd round draft picks in the SEC. There is nothing to disagree with about that.
Palmer has gotten deep in scrimmages at Chargers park...he just has not demonstrated that skill in an actual NFL game.

And Guyton/Johnson are not 100/0 deep ball threats as you contend...consider the deep ball Chase Daniel threw that barely went over Guyton's head last Saturday.
Other receivers would have made that reception. You have to be on target with Guyton.

Guyton/Johnson were able to get deep last year because defenses were concerned with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry & Ekeler; and the dime backs Guyton/Johnson would beat had little safety help. Guyton /Johnson are nothing more than 3rd receivers.

It is not guaranteed, but it looks like Palmer will be able to beat you at any level.....and those receivers are very valuable.

First, I am not speaking of 100/0 in terms of completion percentage, but rather contested catch percentage. The point is that Guyton and Johnson getting wide open on those deep passes makes them better deep options. I do not want Herbert throwing deep passes into coverage unless absolutely necessary.

Second, I disagree about the Guyton pass that you referenced. Nobody is catching that pass as it was significantly off the mark.

Third, Johnson and Guyton are extremely valuable 3rd and 4th receivers. Their contributions to the team in that role were huge. That is exactly why I 100% do not want their roles limited from what they were last year. Deep passes to those two worked for us big time. And Guyton has very good contact balance, which I think will benefit us when he has the ball. (In Herbert's highlights, you can see that on multiple passes teams struggled to get Guyton to the ground.)

Fourth, Palmer is more of a possession type receiver. He has some speed, but does not really have great moves. However, his speed is nowhere near that of either Johnson or Guyton. He is like Mike Williams, but with less size and ability in the air.

Fifth, most teams wait to throw deep until they have a matchup that they like, so your assertion that they got open when they were schemed that way is like saying that there is air.

And finally, all I saw on Saturday was Palmer being being open on very short passes against soft reserve coverage. He has not established that he can get open against NFL defenders at any level much less all levels. In college, some of his deeper receptions were only made because of absolutely perfect throws by the much maligned Tennessee QBs when coverage was tight.

He was not particularly open in college, so I am not expecting that to get hugely better in the NFL.

[Guest]

I think you're reading way too much into preseason game stats and the yards-per-catch and plays that were run.

The offense for the most part is going to be very vanilla. Why are we going to show route combinations the get guys deep in preseason? Every team we play will be breaking down these plays on film. Moving the chains on third down is important and that's what he did on three of his six receptions.

Apparently you've looked in your crystal ball and determined that he's hit his ceiling as a number five receiver. Don't be surprised if it turns out your crystal ball had a massive crack in it.

What?! I think it is everyone else that is making a big deal out of Palmer's preseason game, which I think I viewed correctly. I saw backup Ram defenders playing soft coverage, which allowed some short receptions. Contrary to what others were indicating, that does not prove much of anything. That is my point.

Also, I have not determined that Palmer's ceiling is as a #5 WR. I said he represented great quality as a #5 WR and not nearly as much as Williams as a #2 WR.

I think Palmer would make a solid #3 WR on other teams, but Guyton and Johnson have more value with Herbert as our QB. They allow Herbert to maximize his deep pass potential and they help make defenders defend the whole field while Allen is getting open underneath. It would be crazy to move away from the deep passing game that we showed last year just so we could get Palmer on the field more.

[Bearded14YourPleasure]

Though I think your take on Mike Williams is flawed and undervalues him (do you really think Mike Williams is not a 1,000 yard receiver on another team that has a less featured WR1), I am not suggesting that Mike Williams is worth $18M per season. I am suggesting that he is significantly better than Palmer. Maybe Palmer proves me wrong this year, but that is how I see it so far.

So, if the plan is to use Palmer to replace Williams, we need a new plan. Teams generally do not get better by getting worse.

My view is that Palmer potentially represents great quality as a #5 WR. He does not represent great quality as a #2 WR.

Thus, in my view, it would be useful to draft a Mike Williams replacement with an early pick in next year's draft, assuming that Mike Williams and the team cannot work out a new contract.

If we are using Mike Williams like Michael Thomas in the new offense wouldn’t we just need a Michael Thomas-type WR, of which I would say Palmer has a chance to be that type of WR with his bigger body and route running, as opposed to a MW type WR? Also personally I want to see how MW and Herbert work together this year to see if we really need that jump ball type WR. That’s the type of WR PR preferred and honestly I think that was part of the rational for drafting him, but Herbert isn’t as much of a jump ball thrower. Obviously that could change but I don’t see that type of WR as a necessity if we left Williams walk.

[Guest]

LOL - writing a guy off after a solid first preseason game and following the glowing reviews of the coaching staff and reporters who have watched him practice seems really odd.

The only problem is that is not what I did. I said that Palmer should stay as our #5 WR and that he does not appear to have the potential of Mike Williams. And I was just about the only one that was realistic about the lack of significance of Palmer's preseason week 1 performance on short passes against reserve defenders playing soft coverage. I do think Palmer has solid #3 WR potential, but we already have great role players in important roles that should not be disturbed that are our #3 and #4 WRs.

The issue I have with the Palmer pick is that if he was drafted to be depth, we already have that and if he was drafted to replace Williams, that appears from all information available so far to represent a downgrade at WR2. That said, it is always possible that a player does better than I think he will do.

[richpjr]

The only problem is that is not what I did. I said that Palmer should stay as our #5 WR and that he does not appear to have the potential of Mike Williams. And I was just about the only one that was realistic about the lack of significance of Palmer's preseason week 1 performance on short passes against reserve defenders playing soft coverage. I do think Palmer has solid #3 WR potential, but we already have great role players in important roles that should not be disturbed that are our #3 and #4 WRs.

The issue I have with the Palmer pick is that if he was drafted to be depth, we already have that and if he was drafted to replace Williams, that appears from all information available so far to represent a downgrade at WR2. That said, it is always possible that a player does better than I think he will do.

You are writing him off as having the upside to be a #2 after one preseason game. I'm not sure what you are basing that off of. He averaged 15.3 yards per catch in college compared to 15.4 yards per catch for Williams (and Williams had the luxury of Deshaun Watson as his QB while Palmer had Jarrett Guarantano as his QB). Palmer ran a 4.51 40. Williams ran a 4.49 and a 4.56. They both have a big catch radius and strong hands. I see very little difference between them so far.

[Formula 21]

When are the all-pro teams due to be announced?

[equivocation]

Here's chainy with another gish gallop.

3 of his 6 catches were contested catches on 3rd down just past the line of gain. Anyone who watched the game should know this. A blind assertion that his catches were against soft coverage suggests to me that you just didn't watch the game or are willfully ignoring that half of his catches don't fit your description. You're not going to convince anyone who actually watched the game to simply disregard what they saw in favor of your assertion.

2nd, he was making catches against the 3/4 CBs on the Rams. Yeah, it wasn't Jalen Ramsey. Jalen Ramsey is likely going to be covering KA. Palmer was going against the level of player he will see in a real game.

3rd, Palmer is nothing like Williams (what?) Williams is more a poor man's Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson (not meaning this as a knock, but he's clearly not as good as them and never will be). Palmer's measurables and tape are most similar to Michael Thomas. These are very different receiver types.

4.51 is fast enough to threaten downfield. (See: Michael Thomas at 4.57) There are more ways than one to get open. Guyton runs a 4.39. Is it really that different? Less than a step 25 yards downfield?

He runs good routes and has good moves. See the dagger route he ran vs Adderley or the hook he ran in the pre season game vs tight coverage. Just asserting he doesn't have good moves doesn't make it so.

[DragonIce]

No, you don't have it. One preseason game against backups does not establish that Palmer will be almost always open against NFL starters.

Guyton and Johnson have proven their ability to get open deep against NFL starters. One deep pass reception for Guyton/Johnson is worth about 10 Palmer receptions of the kind he showed last weekend.

I am not saying that Palmer is a negative in and of himself. Rather, I am saying his net effect can be negative if he takes away snaps from Guyton/Johnson, our big play receivers, because Palmer offers less in terms of game changing plays.

With Herbert's deep passing ability, it makes no sense to adjust the WRs in such a way that the deep passing game is less likely to succeed. Also, the deep pass catchers are a nice complement to Allen's game. It is a very good mix.

Now, if Palmer shows an ability to create deep pass separation like Guyton and Johnson and shows an ability to get open in the short game against starting caliber NFL opponents, then that would justify more snaps for Palmer. But we are not remotely close to that at this point.

If you think you got it...your hands are slipping.

The Cowboys best deep threat is Michael Gallup, who has no more speed than Palmer. NFL.com ranked Gallup as #2 deep threat in league. He wins deep because he can out-position and out-muscle defenders.

There are other NFL receivers who don't have top tier speed but win deep including Mike Evans and Adam Thielen. Diggs, Jefferson and numerous others are only a tiny tick faster and win deep.

Even look at our new tight end Jared Cook has been known to catch a lot of 25+ yard passes. He wins with size and overall athleticism.

I said that Palmer should stay as our #5 WR and that he does not appear to have the potential of Mike Williams.

LOL

[equivocation]

Gallup 4.45
Evans 4.53
Thielen 4.49
Diggs 4.46
Jefferson 4.43 (combine) and 4.50 (pro day)
Palmer 4.51

THESE ARE ALL ESSENTIALLY THE SAME

[equivocation]

Reggie Wayne 4.45. Obviously he's too slow to go deep.

[equivocation]

Keenan Allen 4.71 we should cut him and find someone who runs a 4.25 right?