Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[BlazingBolt]

My hype level on Palmer is super high guys. Traded some picks in my dynasty league so he was my first pick in the third round. Getting some trade offers already

[dmac_bolt]

Dependable possession receivers are gold - don’t discount that attribute as a negative, KA has feasted on that category to become top 5 WR in the league imo. Walker, Edelman, etc … possession receivers key to NE Super Bowls. Its fallacy to presume you can’t effectively use two possession receivers.

The 2nd string competition is a valid question mark, but I assume LAR sent out their best non-star groupings for the first drive and not their bottom of back-roster scrubs - eg guys also likely to make their 53. but i too want to see if he is effective against 1’s. Good first step, too early to crown, i think coaches put TT onto JP and see a pro in front of them.

all i know is we’ve seen other promising WRs come thru and they took YEARS to learn things JP seems already to know. I always point back to TW, who took until Yr3 to learn how to aggressively go up and get the ball and not just stare as defenders took it or broke the play up. Even the great VJ took 3 years to emerge as elite.

[Guest]

So having two guys that are almost always open is a negative. Got it.

No, you don't have it. One preseason game against backups does not establish that Palmer will be almost always open against NFL starters.

Guyton and Johnson have proven their ability to get open deep against NFL starters. One deep pass reception for Guyton/Johnson is worth about 10 Palmer receptions of the kind he showed last weekend.

I am not saying that Palmer is a negative in and of himself. Rather, I am saying his net effect can be negative if he takes away snaps from Guyton/Johnson, our big play receivers, because Palmer offers less in terms of game changing plays.

With Herbert's deep passing ability, it makes no sense to adjust the WRs in such a way that the deep passing game is less likely to succeed. Also, the deep pass catchers are a nice complement to Allen's game. It is a very good mix.

Now, if Palmer shows an ability to create deep pass separation like Guyton and Johnson and shows an ability to get open in the short game against starting caliber NFL opponents, then that would justify more snaps for Palmer. But we are not remotely close to that at this point.

[Guest]

Dependable possession receivers are gold - don’t discount that attribute as a negative, KA has feasted on that category to become top 5 WR in the league imo. Walker, Edelman, etc … possession receivers key to NE Super Bowls. Its fallacy to presume you can’t effectively use two possession receivers.

The 2nd string competition is a valid question mark, but I assume LAR sent out their best non-star groupings for the first drive and not their bottom of back-roster scrubs - eg guys also likely to make their 53. but i too want to see if he is effective against 1’s. Good first step, too early to crown, i think coaches put TT onto JP and see a pro in front of them.

all i know is we’ve seen other promising WRs come thru and they took YEARS to learn things JP seems already to know. I always point back to TW, who took until Yr3 to learn how to aggressively go up and get the ball and not just stare as defenders took it or broke the play up. Even the great VJ took 3 years to emerge as elite.

It makes zero sense not to utilize deep threats when your QB is Justin Herbert. And VJ and Tyrell Williams were much more physically gifted than Palmer--they had the superior physical traits that you can't teach (size, speed, vertical leaping ability).

[powderblueboy]

No, you don't have it. One preseason game against backups does not establish that Palmer will be almost always open against NFL starters.

Guyton and Johnson have proven their ability to get open deep against NFL starters. One deep pass reception for Guyton/Johnson is worth about 10 Palmer receptions of the kind he showed last weekend.

I am not saying that Palmer is a negative in and of himself. Rather, I am saying his net effect can be negative if he takes away snaps from Guyton/Johnson, our big play receivers, because Palmer offers less in terms of game changing plays.

With Herbert's deep passing ability, it makes no sense to adjust the WRs in such a way that the deep passing game is less likely to succeed. Also, the deep pass catchers are a nice complement to Allen's game. It is a very good mix.

Now, if Palmer shows an ability to create deep pass separation like Guyton and Johnson and shows an ability to get open in the short game against starting caliber NFL opponents, then that would justify more snaps for Palmer. But we are not remotely close to that at this point.

Palmer successfully went deep with some consistency against premium corners in the SEC. He is more than just a possession receiver.
Unlike Guyton/Johnson, Palmer does not need two steps to be open deep: he seems to excel with timing, anticipation and strength on deep throws.

But i agree: his performance against the Rams is being over-hyped.

[Guest]

Palmer successfully went deep with some consistency against premium corners in the SEC. He is more than just a possession receiver.
Unlike Guyton/Johnson, Palmer does not need two steps to be open deep: he seems to excel with timing, anticipation and strength on deep throws.

But i agree: his performance against the Rams is being over-hyped.

I agree with you about he obvious over-hyping of Palmer's performance against the Rams.

I mostly disagree with your other points. The issue is not that Guyton/Johnson need large separation on deep passes, but rather that they have proven repeatedly that they can get that separation.

I am not interested in 50/50 long passes to Palmer when we can get 100/0 long passes to a wide open Guyton/Johnson. Not even Mike Williams wins all of his contested catch opportunities and he is much better in the air than Palmer.

It seems like Palmer can play in the NFL. I am just not so sure that he gives us a whole lot that we do not already have at WR and that if used frequently, he may take away from Johnson and Guyton give us to the extent he is used in the place of one of those two WRs.

[gzubeck]

I agree with you about he obvious over-hyping of Palmer's performance against the Rams.

I mostly disagree with your other points. The issue is not that Guyton/Johnson need large separation on deep passes, but rather that they have proven repeatedly that they can get that separation.

I am not interested in 50/50 long passes to Palmer when we can get 100/0 long passes to a wide open Guyton/Johnson. Not even Mike Williams wins all of his contested catch opportunities and he is much better in the air than Palmer.

It seems like Palmer can play in the NFL. I am just not so sure that he gives us a whole lot that we do not already have at WR and that if used frequently, he may take away from Johnson and Guyton give us to the extent he is used in the place of one of those two WRs.

When your paying one WR $20 mil and potentially another $18+ mil he does not give us much this year but may pay dividends for next year. I cannot see how this is so difficult for you to understand?!?!?!?

:hello:

[eaterfan]

Palmer successfully went deep with some consistency against premium corners in the SEC. He is more than just a possession receiver.
Unlike Guyton/Johnson, Palmer does not need two steps to be open deep: he seems to excel with timing, anticipation and strength on deep throws.

But i agree: his performance against the Rams is being over-hyped.

I think it's being overhyped and underhyped.

Overhyped - it was a preseason game and he had 36 yards and 6 yards per catch.
Underrated - As you pointed out, he's not just a possession receiver.

IMO - I think a lot of the hype is based on training camp reports and not just this preseason game. I think he'll be a good all around receiver by the end of the contract. He'll be a solid receiver this year.

I think our WR corps has a bright future and I'm far less concerned about it than I was heading into last season. Even as Allen ages I think Johnson and Palmer have a chance at being legit number one receivers (even if not at Allen's level) and Guyton looks to be a solid deep threat. I'm confident this team won't have to spend big money or a high pick on a WR if they don't want to.

[Guest]

When your paying one WR $20 mil and potentially another $18+ mil he does not give us much this year but may pay dividends for next year. I cannot see how this is so difficult for you to understand?!?!?!?

:hello:

Well, if I thought Palmer could replace Williams without us losing anything on offense, then the pick would have more appeal. But Palmer is not the equal of Williams, so I have no interest in seeing him as Williams' replacement.

If Williams leaves, my hope is that we use a first or second round draft pick in 2022 to get someone that could actually replace him, so we are not worse off because he is gone. That way, Palmer could remain as a good #5 WR as opposed to being a bad #2 WR. My concern is that the team will do what you and others seem to think will happen and just use Palmer to replace Williams next year, downgrading us at WR in the process.

[eaterfan]

Well, if I thought Palmer could replace Williams without us losing anything on offense, then the pick would have more appeal. But Palmer is not the equal of Williams, so I have no interest in seeing him as Williams' replacement.

If Williams leaves, my hope is that we use a first or second round draft pick in 2022 to get someone that could actually replace him, so we are not worse off because he is gone. That way, Palmer could remain as a good #5 WR as opposed to being a bad #2 WR. My concern is that the team will do what you and others seem to think will happen and just use Palmer to replace Williams next year, downgrading us at WR in the process.

We're talking about MIKE Williams, right? His first 4 seasons are almost identical to Tyrell Williams, so I don't want to be confused.

I'd love for him to be great and tough to replace, but he has one (1) season over 800 yards in his career and 17 total touchdowns. 800 yards (maybe) shouldn't cost $18 million.

We also don't need Palmer to replace Williams right off the bat. You don't need a one for one replacement. You need the dropoff to be offset by improvements from Parham, Johnson, Guyton, and Palmer. I don't think it will be impossible to replace.

[Panamamike]

Well, if I thought Palmer could replace Williams without us losing anything on offense, then the pick would have more appeal. But Palmer is not the equal of Williams, so I have no interest in seeing him as Williams' replacement.

If Williams leaves, my hope is that we use a first or second round draft pick in 2022 to get someone that could actually replace him, so we are not worse off because he is gone. That way, Palmer could remain as a good #5 WR as opposed to being a bad #2 WR. My concern is that the team will do what you and others seem to think will happen and just use Palmer to replace Williams next year, downgrading us at WR in the process.

I think you're reading way too much into preseason game stats and the yards-per-catch and plays that were run.

The offense for the most part is going to be very vanilla. Why are we going to show route combinations the get guys deep in preseason? Every team we play will be breaking down these plays on film. Moving the chains on third down is important and that's what he did on three of his six receptions.

Apparently you've looked in your crystal ball and determined that he's hit his ceiling as a number five receiver. Don't be surprised if it turns out your crystal ball had a massive crack in it.

[gzubeck]

I think you're reading way too much into preseason game stats and the yards-per-catch and plays that were run.

The offense for the most part is going to be very vanilla. Why are we going to show route combinations the get guys deep in preseason? Every team we play will be breaking down these plays on film. Moving the chains on third down is important and that's what he did on three of his six receptions.

Apparently you've looked in your crystal ball and determined that he's hit his ceiling as a number five receiver. Don't be surprised if it turns out your crystal ball had a massive crack in it.

6 catches per game at an average of 8 yards per catch gives us 816 yards a season over 17 games excluding playoffs. I'll take that any day of the week for a third rounder. Mike Williams already has an injury.... I'd be happy to see Mike play 12 regular season game + playoffs. Mike when available is a very good player but just not durable.

:smoking: