AFC West Updates

[Bolt4Knob]

Yep!

Unless the Chargers nail this off-season, they'll be competing with the Raiders for the basement of the division.

This no time for Telesco to play it safe. Granted, he needs to evaluate the proper players - but significant upgrades are needed on defense in free agency. And in the draft has to hit on what he doesn't fill in free agency.

[Boltjolt]

Wilson is a sack machine. Fix the pass rush.

[Formula 21]

Grading the trade: The Seahawks’ blockbuster deal of Russell Wilson to the Broncos


By Sheil Kapadia 29m ago 33




In a blockbuster trade, the Seattle Seahawks pulled the plug on the Russell Wilson era, sending the veteran quarterback and a draft pick to the Denver Broncos in a deal that returns five picks and three players.
The deal

Denver gives up two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive lineman Shelby Harris in exchange for Wilson and a fourth-round pick.
Why they made the move

It’s pretty simple to tackle this from the Broncos’ perspective. When your team doesn’t have a quarterback, your priority is always to find one. And that’s where the Broncos were. Since Peyton Manning retired in 2015, they’ve had the following quarterbacks:

• Trevor Siemian
• Paxton Lynch
• Brock Osweiler
• Case Keenum
• Drew Lock
• Joe Flacco
• Brandon Allen
• Jeff Driskel
• Brett Rypien
• Teddy Bridgewater

Denver is in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr. They were the clear have-nots. With Wilson, they’re at least now giving themselves a chance. And it’s not like the cupboard is bare. They have a solid group of wide receivers with upside in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick. Javonte Williams is a promising young running back. And their goal now should be to upgrade what was a mostly mediocre offensive line in 2021.
Wilson is 33 years old. He did not miss a game in his first nine seasons in the NFL. Last year, he missed three. When he was healthy, Wilson completed 64.8% of his passes, averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and threw 25 touchdowns with six interceptions. The Broncos are taking a reasonable swing and banking on the fact that Wilson will not show signs of steep decline in the next two years.
This deal is much more difficult to make sense of from the Seahawks’ perspective. As outlined here a couple weeks ago, teams should prioritize offensive efficiency above all else. Of the 20 teams that have made the championship round in the last five years, 18 (90%) had an offense that finished in the top quartile (8th or better) in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
Said more simply: Building an efficient offense — which usually is dependent on quarterback, play-caller or both — will keep you in the mix year in and year out. If you don’t have an efficient offense, you’re going to have a tough, tough time achieving sustained success.
With Wilson, the Seahawks finished in the top quartile of offensive efficiency eight times in 10 seasons. Even last year, when Seattle went 7-10, they finished seventh in offensive efficiency. This is what every team should be chasing. The Seahawks had it, and now they have to start from scratch.
Last offseason, The Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar, Mike Sando and Jayson Jenks reported on the rift between Wilson and the organization in terms of offensive approach. Ever since that report, a move like this seemed possible. But the timing from the Seahawks’ perspective is puzzling. Pete Carroll turns 71 in September. And now the team takes on a dead cap hit of $26 million by moving Wilson.
Making this move next year would have made a lot more sense. This offseason, we’ve seen Tom Brady and Sean Payton leave the NFC. The conference is wide open. The advanced stats suggest that the Seahawks were victims of some bad luck last year. Yes, they were 7-10, but that was with Wilson missing three games. There were 2-5 in one-score games and ranked eighth in overall DVOA. Why not pour some resources into the offensive line and take one more shot together in 2022? Would it have surprised anyone to see Seattle go 11-6 in 2022?
And wouldn’t this deal, or something similar, have been on the table next offseason? Given how hungry teams are for quarterback help, it seems like that would have been the case.
Even if Wilson was still unhappy with the offensive approach and the Seahawks didn’t want to extend him beyond 2023, they could have ridden it out for one more year. Instead, they decided to cash in on the draft picks now. But that leaves them with a gaping hole at quarterback.
Trade grade (Broncos): B+

The move comes with some risk. Over the past three seasons, among 42 quarterbacks with at least 500 pass plays, Wilson ranks 18th in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per play metric. He will give the Broncos a high floor for sure. But there’s no guarantee that Wilson gives the Broncos the upside they’re seeking. Nathaniel Hackett will have to show he’s capable of building a scheme that maximizes Wilson’s skill set. And GM George Paton will have to show that he’s capable of making shrewd roster moves now that the Denver will be operating with a shortage of draft capital.
Having said that, ultimately these trade grades come down to one question: Would I have done the deal? And the answer here is a resounding yes. The Broncos have an above-average roster, and this move gives them a chance to compete for Super Bowls. Their other options were to trade for a quarterback with less upside or go through the process of developing a rookie.
Wilson is signed for the next two years at $24 million and $27 million, respectively. The Broncos very well could look to extend him, but even so, those salaries represent a bargain, given that $40 million per year is now the starting point for above-average quarterbacks.
It might not work out, and they’re in a tough division and a tough conference. But Wilson makes them relevant. And given the information we have at this point in time, taking a swing on the upside with him represents a perfectly reasonable process.
Trade grade (Seahawks): D

Maybe I’m being harsh, but I just don’t like this move at all from Seattle’s perspective. If there’s another shoe to drop and the Seahawks makes a big move for a top-level quarterback with the assets they accumulated here, we’ll revisit their whole process.
But it goes back to what I mentioned above. When you have a clear path to building an efficient offense, you shouldn’t throw it away. The Seahawks have some very good players: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Bobby Wagner. But they do not have a great roster. Maybe they hit on all these new draft picks (unlikely) and replenish the roster. But even if that’s the case, one question will remain: What’s the plan at quarterback? And if there’s no great answer, nothing else really matters.
It’s easier than ever to find competency at quarterback. But competency has never mattered less. Unless you have a high-upside quarterback or a play-caller/schemer like Sean McVay who gives you a distinct edge, you’re going to have a really tough time competing. As of this writing, the Seahawks have neither.
To be clear, Wilson has had ups and downs over the past two seasons. But he always gave the offense a high floor with the potential for a high ceiling. Now what are the Seahawks hanging their hat on? Their defense has ranked 13th or worse for five consecutive seasons.
The compensation is perfectly fine. The Seahawks get two first rounders (including the ninth pick this year), two second rounders, two starting-caliber players and a backup quarterback. Had they run it back this year, come up short and moved on from Wilson next offseason, a move like this would have made complete sense. In many ways, 2023 would have been a natural separation point, given that Wilson would have been entering the final year of his deal.
Again, maybe the Seahawks have another move up their sleeve, but for now, it looks like they rushed to make this trade when they didn’t need to and are poised to take a significant step back.

[Leslie Grossman]

Sorry to see that Drew Lock has left the division.
Glad to see that he has moved to an opponent next season.

Very interesting to see what Seattle does now at QB. Getting Shelby Harris in the deal rather than younger guys or more picks implies they are trying to win now.
Won't be shocked if they draft Willis at 9 either.

[Velo]

I wonder what DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett think about this trade.

[ChargersPowderBlue]

Wilson is a sack machine. Fix the pass rush.

And he holds on to the ball too long. Take away his deep pass and he's just like any other average quarterback.

[WindsorUK]

Good move by the Hawks. Unlike Green Bay, they realize Wilson is not going to lead them back to Lombardi Land.
Better to get a BIG haul than to waste a few years and have nothing to show for it.

[Formula 21]

Does Pete Carroll retire today or tomorrow?

[Boltdiehard]

Fuck Denver

[Xenos]

I think Wilson makes the Broncos the favorite in the AFCW. They have every position filled now.

No, it’s still Mahomes and KC. Especially with the way Wilson played last season.

[chargeroo]

Fuck Denver

You always were a big fan of the Donkeys.

[chargeroo]

No, it’s still Mahomes and KC. Especially with the way Wilson played last season.

Actually, I think it's going to be the Bolts atop the AFCW when it's all said and done.