Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

[Riverwalk]

I think it’s hilarious that for all the grief that Lynn got last year, many on this board would have done the same thing he did.

I don’t think going for a field goal on fourth down was Lynn’s problem.

His real problem was sitting on first half leads and running the ball far too frequently which allowed teams to catch up and win.

He also was a terrible clock manager.

Lynn might not even survived the season if he did what Staley did last night which was piss away all those field goals.

[Xenos]

I think it’s hilarious that for all the grief that Lynn got last year, many on this board would have done the same thing he did.

[bartman83642]

I think a lot of people will disagree but I think Staley made the wrong choice on going for it on several 4th downs. I know some of you will not ever see it this way but I will explain anyway. First of alll the "analytics" that everyone is talking about is just another way of saying statistics or statistical analysis. Staley is using a set of those statistics to justify going for it on 4th downs but the numbers he is using is not the be all end all because it is just a sample of statistics and does not take many other things into account. Now while overall the team has been overall very successful going for it on 4th down the numbers don't justify going for it in all situations.

To put this in perspective to last nights game he passed up the chance to potentially score 3 points on 3 separate situations. If you break down numbers Staley's decision initially seems sound. According to NFL.com these are the stats on going for it on 4th and short:

Fourth-and-inches (< 0.5 yds)	77%
Fourth-and-1 (0.5 < 1.5 yds)	72%
Fourth-and-2 (1.5 < 2.5 yds)	59%

Looks pretty good but the fact is that points win games and while there is a good chance to get those the TD points in those situations near the goal line the chance of kicking the field goals and getting 3 points in the fourth and goals and a 4th and 2 when the field goal options were available last night are significantly better. If I totaled the numbers correctly the odds of getting points on the 46 yard field goal is 84.4% base on this years stats (analytics). 136 out of 161 attempts and the 4th and goals from 20-29 yards 98.8%.

https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/field-goals/2021/reg/all/kickingfgpct/desc

Those numbers would also be analytics when it gets down to it and on three different occasions last night the coach chose an option with significantly lower chances of scoring points and that leads to the number one stat\analytic of all time, which is if you score less points than your opponent you lose 100% of the time. In the alternate words of a commercial---"Mr. Owl, how many times passing on field goals does it take to lose a game?" (Mr Owl) One, two, three...CRUNCH!" or in last nights case, just one.

The analytic chart that Staley uses to make his decision is just one of many sets of numbers he can use to make decisions and doesn't take into account situational football like the numbers above. Nor does it take into account other things like the Chargers being the #1 team in dropped passes which could also factor into decision making\play calling. https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmle...e=NFL&rank=232. That chart is just one tool in the toolbox and there are other tools he can use. Last night he kept pulling out the sledgehammer to get the victory when all he need was a ball peen hammer. IMO his hard on he has for one analytic chart\tool did indeed cost the team the game last night. Some times you just need to go for the higher chance of getting points on the board.

[northerner]

One word - Schottenheimer

good call Roo. Schotty was ok for most games in the regular season, but i always thought his biggest download was letting his underwear get too tight in playoff games - he would literally make calls against his nature. i remembered him even getting flagged on the sideline for coming onto the field or something during a playoff game.

Martyball worked a lot in the regular season, and at least he had the team ready to play his way - but he would then get even MORE conservative in the playoffs or do the complete opposite and go for a 4th and 10 in the middle of the game. i think he went for it on 4th and 10 at the patriots 30 yard line instead of kicking the FG.

[Charge!]

Now I know I'm in the minority
I back coach Staley 100%
we will coach and play to kill, at the cost of a few bad losses
If it's not working by year 3, I'll re evaluate my take
but I feel confident this approach is the future
And we will be better for it
At some point, we will psych opponents out before we even take the field
we are going to crush opponents soon, trust the process

There was one attempt I didn't want to take, personally
But I love it, keep the pressure on EVERYONE coach
we will adjust to being a hyper aggressive team
Year 1 fellas, boltup

I am one of those who love the new attitude of going for it. Remember that at least 2 of them were dropped TD's. And many would not have even went to 4th down if not for drops.

A lot of experts on NFL radio are saying that if we had taken the 3 FG's in first half, we would have had a 17 point lead after Ekler's TD.... instead of just 8 points.....maybe that would have given us enough to win..... from that Ekler TD forward, KC was flawless and unstoppable, and clearly our defense was gassed..... even DB's could not catch up with Kelsey...... and our DL refused to stay disciplined and contain Mahomes (all of his big plays and passes were when he escaped the pocket).....(over been saying for years the way to have a shot to beat mahomes is to keep him in the pocket where he is good but not great...outside he is phenomenal)

we might have barely won if we took those FG's...... but I still think if we played more consistently we would make more 4th downs than we fail.... and that would cause us to start not just beating teams but dominating them...... Cook drops half the passes that hit his hands..... he can make big plays but drops routine ones, which is why he has been on so many teams..... I think our young TE's are better....

the one we probably should have kicked was right before the half..... getting no points was a big lift to KC......

I think with another off-season of better upgrades in talent and speed, Staley is going to prove to be an amazing coach......

[wu-dai clan]

Good thoughts everyone.

This is exactly how we will eventually get over the hump of KC, NE and the Chargers Curse.

#fearless

[WindsorUK]

One word - Schottenheimer

Right again, Roo!
Forgot Marty....D'oh!!!

[Bolt4Knob]

One word - Schottenheimer

You are right Roo
He is building an attitude and mindset of how he will coach games. So the players will get used it to and feel comfortable going for it on 4th down, maybe going for 2 in a crucial moment, Allen probably makes a better pass than last night.

I just hope they have a chance to go for it on 4th down a few times in the upcoming playoffs.

Good thing I have plans Saturday night and Sunday instead of scoreboard watching. Players need to get ready for the Texans - thats a pretty big must win.

[chargeroo]

After what seems a lifetime of failures from Norv, through McCoy, to Lynn....what an absolute stud! Love the attitude.
It may not bring us a championship this year but certainly improves our chances going forward. Haven't had that here since Boss Ross!

One word - Schottenheimer

[WindsorUK]

Don’t change Staley!

After what seems a lifetime of failures from Norv, through McCoy, to Lynn....what an absolute stud! Love the attitude.
It may not bring us a championship this year but certainly improves our chances going forward. Haven't had that here since Boss Ross!

[WindsorUK]

At the time I thought we should take the FG at the end of the half. I still think so. But I like Staley's attitude - he's building a mindset for his team. They will not be expecting to lose with him as their leader, instead, they will be expecting to win. That's a mindset that we fans need to accept to. We need to forget about the play "not to lose" attitude of the past. That's not what this team is going to be like. It may have cost us the game this time but in the long run, it's building a new attitude for the Bolts.
This coach will trust his players, get used to it.

Well said Roo.
I'm diggin' the belief in his players, making them think everything is doable.
I too was expecting the 3 at the end of the first....oh well.....
But yeah, otherwise, keep going for it!

[Xenos]

Don’t change Staley!