Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

[Xenos]

The argument is that you are likely enough to score a TD to come out ahead in the end, on average.

And you can't argue that the math doesn't work, because Herbert hit receivers in scoring position, IN THE HANDS with the ball. The coaches, OL, RB, other receivers and QB all did their jobs well enough to win on the play ... but the receivers didn't.

Yup. If Tyrod was playing instead, we wouldn’t be going for it so much IMO. But you have the QB and the personnel, so why not right?

[richpjr]

No, that’s only half the equation. If you convert the odds increase. If you fail, the odds can’t increase and in fact they decrease because you would have 3 more points on the board.

The increased odds do take into account that fact that the attempt could fail.

[Xenos]

Here’s something from another forum I go to:
https://forums.footballsfuture.com/t...omment=4199456

In every situation the Chargers for went kicking it was only to have it remain a 1 score game. You can't assume that if you change the process that the outcome is the same. They only "left 9" points on the field in 3 discrete events that do not necessarily correlate to the same outcome had they chosen to get those points in 3 point intervals. It changes the Chiefs decision making and process. Reid kicked FG's in the redzone and the end result ended up being the same, if the Chargers kick FG's the process for the Chiefs is different.

You have to analyze it as a series of discrete events, you judge process, not outcome.

[Xenos]

He is not going to stop - and I don't disagree with him:

Thank you! We just didn’t execute. That’s the problem. Don’t stop because the results aren’t in your favor. That’s hindsight. The only thing I do wonder is if Staley should have gone for 2 on the third down to make it 22-13, a two score game given analytically it’s almost better to go for two these days.

[Riverwalk]

….the analytics actually show the odds of winning increased by going for it.

No, that’s only half the equation. If you convert the odds increase. If you fail, the odds can’t increase and in fact they decrease because you would have 3 more points on the board.

[Steve]

The argument is that you are likely enough to score a TD to come out ahead in the end, on average.

And you can't argue that the math doesn't work, because Herbert hit receivers in scoring position, IN THE HANDS with the ball. The coaches, OL, RB, other receivers and QB all did their jobs well enough to win on the play ... but the receivers didn't.

[Riverwalk]

Going for it on all those fourth downs showed Staley had no confidence in his defense. Chargers would have won if he kicked field goals instead.

I don’t think I’ve ever been so pissed off at bad coaching decisions. Players got robbed of a win by Staley.

The question you have to ask. If going for it so often on 4th down especially when easy points are available or its not desperation time is good, then why aren't ALL the teams in the NFL doing it? I don't see Belichick doing it...or some of the other great coaches. Take the points.

[Steve]

On the fourth down, I really only had issue with the one up 14-10 The first one, plenty of time left in the game and yes, at that point, you have to think KC is going to put up points. The third one, 45 yard FG only makes it a 4 point game. So thats good - but it still was a 45 yard FG. Now the 22 yard chip shot - knowing KC is getting the ball at the half - I take the points there.

Williams isn't worth 17m per year. Look at Corey Davis with the Jets - not worth it. You cna find good solid NFL receivers plus the defense needs so much help, let him "test the market."

I am still somewhat of a John Madden type. I think the big one is getting the 1st points on the board. it was the opening drive, I think making that a statement piece. You drive down running the ball down the field, then throw 4 straight passes. I would have tried to run it in 3 straight times, then kick if you don't get it, just to get points on the board quickly. Let KC know they have to stop our run, or they are going to get it all night long.

By the time it is 14-10, I get going for it then. KC is getting the ball back in the 2nd half, we have left a bunch of points on the field, we haven't controlled ball like we wanted. I think they felt like they had to have the margin, so that one I get.

[richpjr]

Nobody wants to hear it, but last night was 4th and 11 on steroids.

Know when the odds are in your favor, and when they aren't. Staley was reckless last night. And I'm guessing if he's a gambler, he doesn't know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, when to walk away, or when to run.

I don't agree with the reckless part at all. They had plays called that should have worked. It's not like Herbert was sacked or we ran up the gut and were stuffed - we flat out dropped passes that should have been caught for TDs. As Popper points out, the analytics actually show the odds of winning increased by going for it.

[Bolt4Knob]

As far as Williams goes, I agree. IMHO, his performance is just not quite up to what I want a big money WR to do. He is not a bad player, but like Tyrell a few years ago, he has some holes in his game and that is the difference between a big money guy, and the next couple of tiers down.

CBS Sports has an article by a (former) agent, who thinks Williams should be getting in the neighborhood of $17 mill per season.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-2021-contract-year-stock-watch-has-mike-williams-allen-robinson-on-opposite-ends-of-spectrum/

As far as the 4th downs go, 2 separate series, QB hits the receiver in the hands of receivers in position to score in on the 1st one, the second one the QB put the ball just too far to reach (although palmer made a similar almost out of reach catch later in the game) ... the execution was just not quite there.

On the fourth down, I really only had issue with the one up 14-10 The first one, plenty of time left in the game and yes, at that point, you have to think KC is going to put up points. The third one, 45 yard FG only makes it a 4 point game. So thats good - but it still was a 45 yard FG. Now the 22 yard chip shot - knowing KC is getting the ball at the half - I take the points there.

Williams isn't worth 17m per year. Look at Corey Davis with the Jets - not worth it. You cna find good solid NFL receivers plus the defense needs so much help, let him "test the market."

[Steve]

I know this much -- Mike Williams just isn't worth the money he will command. He makes a really good catch up the sideline. But for at least the third if not 4th time this year, dropped a ball inside the five yard line. You just can't have that. And can find a serviceable WR in free agency for a lot less money who catches the damn ball. And Cook -he can go.

As for going on 4th downs - if thats your mantra - don't stop next week.

As far as Williams goes, I agree. IMHO, his performance is just not quite up to what I want a big money WR to do. He is not a bad player, but like Tyrell a few years ago, he has some holes in his game and that is the difference between a big money guy, and the next couple of tiers down.

CBS Sports has an article by a (former) agent, who thinks Williams should be getting in the neighborhood of $17 mill per season.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-2021-contract-year-stock-watch-has-mike-williams-allen-robinson-on-opposite-ends-of-spectrum/

As far as the 4th downs go, 2 separate series, QB hits the receiver in the hands of receivers in position to score in on the 1st one, the second one the QB put the ball just too far to reach (although palmer made a similar almost out of reach catch later in the game) ... the execution was just not quite there.