Should We Stop Going For It On 4th Down?

[richpjr]

i was actually thinking that he might have gotten a little gun shy about passing up the FG's after all the criticism on the KC game. kicking FG's of 50 yards and 46 yards in the first quarter does not sound like Staley. looking back now, with him knowing better than us how depleted our already-average defense was, I bet he wishes he had gone for it on those plays.

he needs to find a good middle ground and be very situational about it (end of the half, etc.), but overall he is heading in the right direction (IMHO).

I think Staley's conviction about going for it will never be swayed by any criticism he receives. He will do it based on who we are playing and the game situation, as he should. I see why you go for it against the Chiefs and not against the Texans. Bottom line is neither approach worked in those games.

[northerner]

But...again...Staley was the one making the calls...and he stopped doing it. Learned a small lesson from the Chiefs game maybe.

i was actually thinking that he might have gotten a little gun shy about passing up the FG's after all the criticism on the KC game. kicking FG's of 50 yards and 46 yards in the first quarter does not sound like Staley. looking back now, with him knowing better than us how depleted our already-average defense was, I bet he wishes he had gone for it on those plays.

he needs to find a good middle ground and be very situational about it (end of the half, etc.), but overall he is heading in the right direction (IMHO).

[foreigner]

Whose eyes...Chiefs or Bolts :>)

Bolts...on the texans game.

Maybe he saw something in their eyes this time.

Whose eyes...Chiefs or Bolts :>)

[21&500]

Ok so why weren't the Bolts going for it on 4th down against the Texans?

Goes to show BS isn't a robot blindly making decisions solely on analytics
which was another false criticism from his detractors

[foreigner]

But...again...Staley was the one making the calls...and he stopped doing it. Learned a small lesson from the Chiefs game maybe.

Maybe he saw something in their eyes this time.

this game showed the downside of FG's = 15 points with 4 drives inside their 35 yard line (3 FG's and one TD). so you are damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

i still like that our coach is on progressive side of the analytics. this is going to benefit us down the road.

But...again...Staley was the one making the calls...and he stopped doing it. Learned a small lesson from the Chiefs game maybe.

[foreigner]

I'm all for going in 4th down right now. That's good experience on learning to win the game and not to lose. This 4th down experience will grow them balls.

[powderblueboy]

When it's fourth and goal and the los is inside the five, the defense has a lot less ground to cover. Not any worry that a speedy receiver will go deep on them. I think going for it on fourth down in that situation must have a lower percentage of completion than going for it from other parts of the field.

Its a unique situation, very little if any comparable data to use.
The data that you do use is of a different time, place & situation.

Pretending that you can assign an exact percentage to a successful outcome is nuts.

Remember when the Steelers, with a tiny lead near the end of the game, went for it on 4rth down in San Diego in 2009?
Charger injuries made it so that they couldn't stop the run.

[richpjr]

this game showed the downside of FG's = 15 points with 4 drives inside their 35 yard line (3 FG's and one TD). so you are damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

i still like that our coach is on progressive side of the analytics. this is going to benefit us down the road.

In the end, the players have to execute. We got 2 TDs on 5 tries against the Chiefs for 14 points. If we kick FGs and make all of them, we have 15 points. Pretty much a wash. However, 2 of the 3 misses were plays that should have been made and could have swung the game our way. I far prefer playing to win than playing not to lose.

[northerner]

Ok so why weren't the Bolts going for it on 4th down against the Texans?

this game showed the downside of FG's = 15 points with 4 drives inside their 35 yard line (3 FG's and one TD). so you are damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

i still like that our coach is on progressive side of the analytics. this is going to benefit us down the road.

[richpjr]

Ok so why weren't the Bolts going for it on 4th down against the Texans?

I didn't see the winning percentage chances during the game, but the 4th downs were longer than the ones against the Chiefs.