The Rams Must Beat The Ravens

[QSmokey]

KC has been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL this season in terms of catching teams at just the right time.

And they were absolutely lucky to win either of the OT games against us over the past two seasons. In Herbert's debut, the game was there for us to win, but the conservative play calling killed the potential game winning drive after we had 1st and goal at the KC 4.

This year, the fluke fest for KC continued--dropped TD passes on multiple drives for us plus James going down with injury, which changed the entire game as it did in week 3 when James was forced out of the game. Kelce basically does nothing when James is on the field.

IND has not beaten anybody that did not give them the game. Their wins are fueled by turnovers/mistakes by opponents. They are not that good on offense or defense. Look at the numbers. They have been good at getting turnovers, which is not a sustainable stat. I congratulate them on their awesome ability to have ARI's center make a bad snap in the end zone for a safety or for Prater to miss two FGs and an extra point--you know, crap that had nothing to do with what the Colts did, in the one game in which there was a victory by IND but only an even turnover differential. Every other game in which the turnover differential was even and in the two games when it favored the opponent, the Colts lost. They also lost to TEN by two scores despite being +3 turnover differential in one of their games against them.

Finally, I think you are missing a lot about the last weekend's game in which we were missing a multitude of key players. If COVID is going to eliminate a bunch of starters for both teams, such that both teams are discombobulated and do not resemble their normal selves, that is always going to favor the less talented team and the home team, which will have a greater sense of normalcy by being at home and not having to travel. The absence of just one player can make a large difference, so of course the absence of many players can create an even greater impact.

In this case, the absence of Williams and Guyton meant no possibility of a deep passing game--nothing to keep the defense honest. I have spent an entire season posting about what that means in terms of defenses being able to squat on our short passing game to slower receivers and how the the threat of a deep passing game and the deep passing game itself works with the short passing game to produce the best possible results for both, so I will not repeat that discussion here other than to say that Sunday provided a perfect example of exactly what I have been discussing by showing what happens when defenses do not really have to account for a deep passing game from us.

Linsley is our most important OL player--the anchor of the OL. And the absence of Ekeler hurt in depth situations (i.e., when Jackson needed a break). There is a huge drop off after Ekeler and Jackson.

On defense, we were without our 3 of our top 4 OLBs, our best DL player (Jones), our best S (James), and had to use street free agents/practice squad scrubs because our secondary depth had taken a hit due to COVID (Campbell, Hall) and our best starting CB (Davis) getting sick right before kickoff. Our other starting CB was rusty, having just returned from being out multiple games with his second concussion of the season. We had to start a lesser ILB with no real OLB experience at OLB.

It was far beyond just two players of significance on offense and defense. Are you shitting me?

Take away our COVID outbreak and James' injury and we are sitting as the #1 seed in the AFC right now despite the multiple dropped TD passes against KC two weeks ago. Not a playoff team? That is ridiculous. It is only bad luck that will prevent us from becoming one.

OK, well, I won't respond line-for-line, but I think I can summarize your post in one sentence: Basically, you feel the Chargers have be hella unlucky and the rest of the teams ahead of us have been super lucky. Got it.

But I really don't believe the lucky/unlucky line as a one size fits all excuse. I *do* believe that a team has to have it's share of breaks in the course of a long season in order to win a Super Bowl. So, in a sense, most teams who have raised the Lombardi Trophy can thank Lady Luck to SOME extent. But the Chargers - I'll stick to the Chargers since that's who I've been watching - have not played as well as you seem to think. Not in my opinion. Dropped passes? Is that "luck"? COVID-19? Have the Chargers been the only team affected? Injuries? Are the Chargers alone in that regard? Turnovers? Again, is an INT or a fumble just "unlucky" for us?

Now I will agree that our front-line players, if healthy, can COMPETE with any team. Doesn't mean we're better. It's also kind of a ridiculous notion. That is, if this team has to be 100% healthy (or damn near it) for us to be competitive, then I submit THIS ROSTER is not competitive, and certainly not a playoff team. Simply because we lack depth in just about every area. Guys here have been posting that since Baluga went down (in other words, since Day One), and I'm on board with that assessment.

Look, we've made progress. I've been more patient that a lot of posters when it comes to Staley. The cornerstone pieces, I believe, are in place. But we're not there yet. We need a good draft - a better draft then Telesco has yet put together - and we need to add a few more important pieces through FA.

9/10-win team. Middle of the pack. If we squeak into the playoffs, we'll be one-and-done.

[Guest]

OK, well, I won't respond line-for-line, but I think I can summarize your post in one sentence: Basically, you feel the Chargers have be hella unlucky and the rest of the teams ahead of us have been super lucky. Got it.

But I really don't believe the lucky/unlucky line as a one size fits all excuse. I *do* believe that a team has to have it's share of breaks in the course of a long season in order to win a Super Bowl. So, in a sense, most teams who have raised the Lombardi Trophy can thank Lady Luck to SOME extent. But the Chargers - I'll stick to the Chargers since that's who I've been watching - have not played as well as you seem to think. Not in my opinion. Dropped passes? Is that "luck"? COVID-19? Have the Chargers been the only team affected? Injuries? Are the Chargers alone in that regard? Turnovers? Again, is an INT or a fumble just "unlucky" for us?

Now I will agree that our front-line players, if healthy, can COMPETE with any team. Doesn't mean we're better. It's also kind of a ridiculous notion. That is, if this team has to be 100% healthy (or damn near it) for us to be competitive, then I submit THIS ROSTER is not competitive, and certainly not a playoff team. Simply because we lack depth in just about every area. Guys here have been posting that since Baluga went down (in other words, since Day One), and I'm on board with that assessment.

Look, we've made progress. I've been more patient that a lot of posters when it comes to Staley. The cornerstone pieces, I believe, are in place. But we're not there yet. We need a good draft - a better draft then Telesco has yet put together - and we need to add a few more important pieces through FA.

9/10-win team. Middle of the pack. If we squeak into the playoffs, we'll be one-and-done.

If you are going to try to summarize my posts, would you please come within a thousand miles of what I am saying?

The dropped passes are fortunate for the other team because they are not forced errors by the other team's defense. And even if you disagree with that, there is zero doubt that we win versus KC if James is not forced out of the game due to injury.

Nobody is saying we need to be 100% healthy. What a straw man argument that is. There is a huge difference between being 100% healthy and being so depleted that you cannot compete at all. If we are going to lose 3 of our 4 best pass rushers, 3 of our 5 best CBs, our best DL player, 3 of our best 5 Ss, including our best overall defender (James), and sustain an injury to a starting ILB, that is going to present a problem for the defense in a big way.

And if you take away our OL's anchor and every deep threat Herbert has to prevent the defense from squatting on us, that is going to be a problem as it has been when we have refused to throw deep until recently and opponents caught on to that. It is not that Guyton and Williams are the two best WRs we have, but they just might be the worst two that could be missing at the same time, even worse than missing Allen and Williams at the same time because Palmer could handle Allen's short game role and Guyton could maintain a deep threat for us with someone like Moore chipping in as the Williams short game receiver. So, yeah, the COVID losses against HOU were pretty major.

Seriously, this team is a COVID outbreak and a James injury from being in line as the #1 seed in the AFC right now. You do get that, right? I mean, if we were sitting there as the #1 AFC seed right now, would you still be spewing this nonsense about us not really being a playoff caliber team?

So, your apparent belief that our team is mediocre is just silly. We have the ability to make the playoffs, so that makes us a playoff caliber team whether or not we actually get in. And there really is some luck involved with COVID. The Dolphins just got a lucky win in a game they probably would have lost had their opponent been near full strength. We just got a loss that probably would have been a win had our team not been totally depleted with COVID and injuries. Those lucky breaks can make a big difference. But we are right there even with the late bad luck.

Equally lame is your one and done nonsense. Any team can lose in the playoffs, but we are better than the Titans without Henry. We beat the current #1 seed already. We beat the current #3 seed already. NE and IND are overrated chump wild card teams that we would very likely beat unless we get in our own way, which could happen as it has twice in a row to NE, but that is not odds on in any one game. The moment we play even an average game against either of those teams we win. BUF is a good team, statistically strong on both offense and defense, and playing them in Buffalo would be tough, but we would have a solid chance against them too (50/50). Our odds against anyone else are better than 50/50. We just need to overcome the bad luck and take what is rightfully ours.

[Velo]

I can see both the Ravens and Dolphins winning

Really? I can't see it. My eye just won't.

[Velo]

I'm pretty confident too.
I will take KC over CIN, IND over LV, LAR over BAL, TEN over MIA and LAC over DEN.
100$ to make 520$

I think the Colts beat the Raiders, the Rams beat the Ravens, the Titans beat the Dolphins and the Chargers beat the Broncos.

I am less sure about KC beating the Bengals, with that game being in Cincinnati. The Bengals have been playing solid lately, Joe Burrow is lights out and I think the Bengals' O matches up well against KC's D. If I had to pick, I would probably pick the Chiefs too, but I would not be real confident.

[Bolt4Knob]

Really? I can't see it. My eye just won't.

from @JayPosner
With MIA (at TEN) and BAL (vs. LAR) both playing at 10 a.m. PT, Broncos could be eliminated before their game Sunday with Chargers if either one wins. Chargers could be put on the brink of elimination if Miami and Baltimore both win


Well lets just hope both teams lose and Denver is still "mathematically" alive at kickoff

[Velo]

from @JayPosner
With MIA (at TEN) and BAL (vs. LAR) both playing at 10 a.m. PT, Broncos could be eliminated before their game Sunday with Chargers if either one wins. Chargers could be put on the brink of elimination if Miami and Baltimore both win


Well lets just hope both teams lose and Denver is still "mathematically" alive at kickoff

I don't know how old that tweet is, but the Rams @ Ravens has been moved to 1:25 PST. So the Donks won't know anything at game time. Plus, there is no way Miami and Baltimore are both going to win.

[Guest]

I think the Colts beat the Raiders, the Rams beat the Ravens, the Titans beat the Dolphins and the Chargers beat the Broncos.

I am less sure about KC beating the Bengals, with that game being in Cincinnati. The Bengals have been playing solid lately, Joe Burrow is lights out and I think the Bengals' O matches up well against KC's D. If I had to pick, I would probably pick the Chiefs too, but I would not be real confident.

The scenarios are tricky regarding rooting when it comes to the KC/CIN game. There are scenarios in which we win a three-way tie at 9-8, but lose to either of the teams in a two-way tie and vice versa. In some scenarios, it helps us for CLE or CIN to win and in others, it hurts us. What I have seen is that it is generally good that if we go 9-8, we are tied with BAL and MIA or tied with neither of them (they both lose out), but not tied with only one of them.

Similarly, if we finish 9-8 and BAL gets to 9 wins, it is good to have CIN or CLE also at 9-8 because both have the tie breaker over BAL, which gets decided before we look to the wild card ties outside of a given division. We win head-to-head tie breakers with either CLE or CIN. But if we go to a three-way tie with MIA, then CIN gets in over us (with CLE winning the division at 9-8 or PIT at 9-7-1). So, it kind of makes it impossible to know how to root other than rooting for us to win, IND to win and BAL and MIA to lose.

And even an IND win over LV, while helping to maintain the possibility of us getting in at 9-8 should it come to that, closes out the possibility of IND losing out and potentially donating its wild card spot to us (as remote of a possibility as that was to begin with with their other game being against JAC). Here, it should be noted that if both LV and we finish at 9-8, we have the tie breaker.

It is so much easier if we just get the losses from BAL and MIA and win our two games to finish 10-7.

[Jorgecasas10]

The last time the chargers needed loses from mia and bal it happened in 2013 and went to the playoffs

[Sgt Schultz]

I don't know how old that tweet is, but the Rams @ Ravens has been moved to 1:25 PST. So the Donks won't know anything at game time. Plus, there is no way Miami and Baltimore are both going to win.

NFL.COM SAYS 10:00 am PACIFIC. Oops got cap lock wrong. Sorry

[QSmokey]

If you are going to try to summarize my posts, would you please come within a thousand miles of what I am saying?

The dropped passes are fortunate for the other team because they are not forced errors by the other team's defense. And even if you disagree with that, there is zero doubt that we win versus KC if James is not forced out of the game due to injury.

Nobody is saying we need to be 100% healthy. What a straw man argument that is. There is a huge difference between being 100% healthy and being so depleted that you cannot compete at all. If we are going to lose 3 of our 4 best pass rushers, 3 of our 5 best CBs, our best DL player, 3 of our best 5 Ss, including our best overall defender (James), and sustain an injury to a starting ILB, that is going to present a problem for the defense in a big way.

And if you take away our OL's anchor and every deep threat Herbert has to prevent the defense from squatting on us, that is going to be a problem as it has been when we have refused to throw deep until recently and opponents caught on to that. It is not that Guyton and Williams are the two best WRs we have, but they just might be the worst two that could be missing at the same time, even worse than missing Allen and Williams at the same time because Palmer could handle Allen's short game role and Guyton could maintain a deep threat for us with someone like Moore chipping in as the Williams short game receiver. So, yeah, the COVID losses against HOU were pretty major.

Seriously, this team is a COVID outbreak and a James injury from being in line as the #1 seed in the AFC right now. You do get that, right? I mean, if we were sitting there as the #1 AFC seed right now, would you still be spewing this nonsense about us not really being a playoff caliber team?

So, your apparent belief that our team is mediocre is just silly. We have the ability to make the playoffs, so that makes us a playoff caliber team whether or not we actually get in. And there really is some luck involved with COVID. The Dolphins just got a lucky win in a game they probably would have lost had their opponent been near full strength. We just got a loss that probably would have been a win had our team not been totally depleted with COVID and injuries. Those lucky breaks can make a big difference. But we are right there even with the late bad luck.

Equally lame is your one and done nonsense. Any team can lose in the playoffs, but we are better than the Titans without Henry. We beat the current #1 seed already. We beat the current #3 seed already. NE and IND are overrated chump wild card teams that we would very likely beat unless we get in our own way, which could happen as it has twice in a row to NE, but that is not odds on in any one game. The moment we play even an average game against either of those teams we win. BUF is a good team, statistically strong on both offense and defense, and playing them in Buffalo would be tough, but we would have a solid chance against them too (50/50). Our odds against anyone else are better than 50/50. We just need to overcome the bad luck and take what is rightfully ours.

You say a lot, so it's a bit difficult trying to nail down your point. I stick to what I'm saying, and will add this: You're an unapologetic (and annoying little) homer who needs to be "correct" all the time. If you're not Yuba, you're his clone. And it gets tiresome trying to discuss things with a know-it-all, as it was with Yuba.

Final note: Keep writing novels pushing the unlucky angle. It's all you got. But it doesn't change the fact that this is a 9/10 win, middle-of-the-pack team.

[Boltjolt]

Really? I can't see it. My eye just won't.

Miami hasn't played anybody worth a shit for 7 weeks except for Baltimore and like us, Baltimore is hot and cold.

I think Tennessee wins Henry or no Henry. Also isn't this Tannehill's first game against them since he left? Maybe a little extra motivation there.

[Guest]

from @JayPosner
With MIA (at TEN) and BAL (vs. LAR) both playing at 10 a.m. PT, Broncos could be eliminated before their game Sunday with Chargers if either one wins. Chargers could be put on the brink of elimination if Miami and Baltimore both win


Well lets just hope both teams lose and Denver is still "mathematically" alive at kickoff

Every game of our elimination scenarios requires a result that is against the odds--all of them individually, much less all of them together.

It is more likely that we will be in control of our destiny after Sunday than it is that we will be eliminated after Sunday.