Herbert vs His Peers

[gzubeck]

You said even when he's off he still gives us a chance. He played like crap in all of those games. We got blown out by the Ravens, lost convincingly to the Broncos, and lost to one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Texans. He also threw the game away against New England. So you basically made a statement that isn't true.

One constant there...the Defense sucked all season long. So when Herbert played average or his receivers played average we lost.

:hello:

[DerwinBosa]

One constant there...the Defense sucked all season long. So when Herbert played average or his receivers played average we lost.

:hello:

And this has been the same story over and over again since Norv Turner was hired. We're not winning any Super Bowls until we build a team that wins both sides of the line of scrimmage consistently. A competent owner would be looking for a new general manager to achieve that goal. Unfortunately, we don't have a competent owner, and he's satisfied with Herbert throwing the ball 672 times and putting up impressive stats in one season because it gets the fans excited. This is proven in this thread, in which we have a few posters who seem to be more concerned with Justin Herbert being superior to Joe Burrow than the team actually winning games. But this doesn't get you deep into the playoffs, if you even make it at all, which we haven't seven out of the nine years Tom Telesco has been general manager.

[gzubeck]

And this has been the same story over and over again since Norv Turner was hired. We're not winning any Super Bowls until we build a team that wins both sides of the line of scrimmage consistently. A competent owner would be looking for a new general manager to achieve that goal. Unfortunately, we don't have a competent owner, and he's satisfied with Herbert throwing the ball 672 times and putting up impressive stats in one season because it gets the fans excited. This is proven in this thread, in which we have a few posters who seem to be more concerned with Justin Herbert being superior to Joe Burrow than the team actually winning games. But this doesn't get you deep into the playoffs, if you even make it at all, which we haven't seven out of the nine years Tom Telesco has been general manager.

Telesco had his hands tied behind his back with expensive aging or incapacitated expensive Vets. He has no excuses for screwing it up this upcoming season as he has max flexibility here. His biggest weakness is addressing midseason weaknesses. Getting a team ready for the beginning of season was good but little mid season adjustments. Sort of the Die is cast of mindset.

[Guest]

So he's basically saying what everyone but chaincrusher has in this thread: Herbert and Burrow are close. It's not Herbert #1 and Burrow out of the top ten.

Rosenthal is not ranking the same thing that I am. How can you miss that? He is ranking QBs of the 2021 season, I am ranking the QBs going forward, which is evidenced significantly, but not entirely by the QB's performance in 2021. Rosenthal is just looking at 2021 period.

So let's look at the most important thing first, which is where Rosenthal and I are in full agreement. Herbert is better than Burrow.

Now, let's see how my analysis would naturally differ from Rosenthal's because we are not ranking the same thing. First, Tom Brady has retired, so that moves Herbert up in the rankings. Honestly, I have already said that Herbert and Allen are my top two QBs going forward and Rosenthal has them at #2 and #3 with Rodgers above them. Rodgers had a great year, but his future is uncertain and my focus is the immediate future, which clearly explains the difference between my ranking and Rosenthal's. But it is the same three guys at the top once the retired Brady is removed (because he is not going forward).

Next, Watson did not play, so Rosenthal does not rank him and I do--between Herbert and Burrow, which is obviously where he belongs, which increases the QBs between Herbert and Burrow.

Further, I do not like Mahomes and think he has always been overrated to some degree, but putting Burrow ahead of Mahomes is almost as silly as putting Burrow ahead of Allen or Herbert, so I think I am right and Rosenthal is just wrong there on a going forward basis. Mahomes is elite. Burrow is not.

On top of that, by just looking at 2021 stats and not what the QB is going forward, Rosenthal's differing emphasis substantially lowers the rankings of Jackson and Russell Wilson, players that were injured and/or had severe team injuries that hurt their performance in 2021, but whose performances are not likely to suffer going forward based upon their consistent career performance apart from 2021. These are players that are reasonably expected to better than Burrow going forward.

Like me, of the group that includes Stafford, Prescott, Murray, Cousins and Burrow, Rosenthal has Stafford as the highest ranked. Though, I do see a bunch of recency bias with Stafford and Burrow both being ranking higher than they should be overall. This may also contribute to Mahomes being somehow ranked below Burrow and Stafford as he had that horrible second half of the AFCCG to end his season. But let me ask it this way, if one were to be able to pick a QB for 2022 of the three, who would be selected? Mahomes, of course. Again, he is the elite QB of that group, whereas the others are in the above average group.

I really cannot account for Carr being ranked in the top 10 by Rosenthal. I am higher on Carr than most, but I see him as an upper mid level QB, the tier below Stafford, Prescott, Murray, Cousins and Burrow. And the Tannehill ranking by Rosenthal at #12, of course, is a lot off as he struggled this season pretty much across the board and lacks the career consistency of someone like Cousins, who has been statistically rock solid and consistently above average throughout his time with the Vikings.

Rosenthal has Prescott and Murray in the #8-12 range as I do. He ranks Murray higher than I would, but we are in exact agreement as to Prescott, who I also have as #9 overall. IMO, Prescott is better than Burrow.

[DerwinBosa]

Telesco had his hands tied behind his back with expensive aging or incapacitated expensive Vets. He has no excuses for screwing it up this upcoming season as he has max flexibility here. His biggest weakness is addressing midseason weaknesses. Getting a team ready for the beginning of season was good but little mid season adjustments. Sort of the Die is cast of mindset.

Telesco has had one successful draft pick on each side of the line: Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater. The rest have been either flat-out busts or not worthy of a second contract when their rookie deals have expired. He also overpays for aging veterans, such as Bryan Bulaga, and the money he had to dish out to three offensive linemen last offseason could have been used to re-sign Hunter Henry, one of his few successful second-round picks, if he hadn't failed so miserably to build a good blocking unit through the draft.

[DerwinBosa]

Rosenthal is not ranking the same thing that I am. How can you miss that? He is ranking QBs of the 2021 season, I am ranking the QBs going forward, which is evidenced significantly, but not entirely by the QB's performance in 2021. Rosenthal is just looking at 2021 period.

So let's look at the most important thing first, which is where Rosenthal and I are in full agreement. Herbert is better than Burrow.

Now, let's see how my analysis would naturally differ from Rosenthal's because we are not ranking the same thing. First, Tom Brady has retired, so that moves Herbert up in the rankings. Honestly, I have already said that Herbert and Allen are my top two QBs going forward and Rosenthal has them at #2 and #3 with Rodgers above them. Rodgers had a great year, but his future is uncertain and my focus is the immediate future, which clearly explains the difference between my ranking and Rosenthal's. But it is the same three guys at the top once the retired Brady is removed (because he is not going forward).

Next, Watson did not play, so Rosenthal does not rank him and I do--between Herbert and Burrow, which is obviously where he belongs, which increases the QBs between Herbert and Burrow.

Further, I do not like Mahomes and think he has always been overrated to some degree, but putting Burrow ahead of Mahomes is almost as silly as putting Burrow ahead of Allen or Herbert, so I think I am right and Rosenthal is just wrong there on a going forward basis. Mahomes is elite. Burrow is not.

On top of that, by just looking at 2021 stats and not what the QB is going forward, Rosenthal's differing emphasis substantially lowers the rankings of Jackson and Russell Wilson, players that were injured and/or had severe team injuries that hurt their performance in 2021, but whose performances are not likely to suffer going forward based upon their consistent career performance apart from 2021. These are players that are reasonably expected to better than Burrow going forward.

Like me, of the group that includes Stafford, Prescott, Murray, Cousins and Burrow, Rosenthal has Stafford as the highest ranked. Though, I do see a bunch of recency bias with Stafford and Burrow both being ranking higher than they should be overall. This may also contribute to Mahomes being somehow ranked below Burrow and Stafford as he had that horrible second half of the AFCCG to end his season. But let me ask it this way, if one were to be able to pick a QB for 2022 of the three, who would be selected? Mahomes, of course. Again, he is the elite QB of that group, whereas the others are in the above average group.

I really cannot account for Carr being ranked in the top 10 by Rosenthal. I am higher on Carr than most, but I see him as an upper mid level QB, the tier below Stafford, Prescott, Murray, Cousins and Burrow. And the Tannehill ranking by Rosenthal at #12, of course, is a lot off as he struggled this season pretty much across the board and lacks the career consistency of someone like Cousins, who has been statistically rock solid and consistently above average throughout his time with the Vikings.

Rosenthal has Prescott and Murray in the #8-12 range as I do. He ranks Murray higher than I would, but we are in exact agreement as to Prescott, who I also have as #9 overall. IMO, Prescott is better than Burrow.

I was referring to one of the many ridiculous comments you made earlier in the thread, in which you said you had Burrow ranked #12.

[Guest]

So you dispute his avg time with the ball was 1.93 seconds? I have no idea, i didn’t time him. But the tweeter dude says he looked up the stat, and you’ve not offered any stat - you just decree “too long” therefore must be true. So you got a number? If he’s holding it too long, how long is he holding it? I saw the Rams 5-man rush roll over the Cats OL like German tanks rolling into Warsaw

Burrow has previously admitted that he holds the ball too long at times. This is not even a controversial point. It is a fact.

I am not the only poster that has seen Burrow take unnecessary sacks and/or not pass the ball on time. He did this against both the Titans and Rams on multiple occasions. Because Rosenthal talked about Burrow's last three playoff games being his worst stretch for the entire season in the article cited by equivocation, I wanted to see if I agreed with him. So, I found another stretch with low QBR ratings. I looked at his game against the Jets to see how a player could put up a 26.7 Total QBR when he threw 3 TDs and only 1 INT, even better than he did in these playoffs.

One series I found had CIN with 1st and goal at the NYJ 1 yard line after a turnover. Two runs lost two yards, so Burrow had 3rd and goal. He threw incomplete. On 4th and goal, he took a sack for a loss of 12 yards, which seemed bizarre to me on a 4th down and goal so I went to the video of that play. Sure enough, Burrow held the ball and did not make the pass. It was 4th and goal. That ball has to come out or else it is a turnover on downs anyway. Between that and a late INT deep in his own territory (that lost the game against the Jets), it looked like the TEN playoff game all over again where Burrow took two absolutely horrible sacks on third downs, one for minus 16 yards that knocked CIN out of FG range, and the other that knocked CIN to the edge of FG range (54 yard FG was made by McPherson, who seems like a really good kicker). Again, those passes have to come out. There was time to execute passes on those plays or throw the ball away. No minus 16 yard sack is a quick play.

The same thing happened on Burrow's final play this season. Burrow blew his team's last Super Bowl chance because he pulled the ball back down. Burrow has to be expecting quick pressure. He had 5 receivers running pass routes, so his blocking was just the OL. His drop was short. It was 4th and 1. The play was designed to be a quick pass. The ball must come out on time. Uzomah had the under route on immediate crossing routes near the line of scrimmage on the left side of the field. He is a big TE who can use his body to shield defenders from the ball. There was a defender lurking in the short outside area, but Uzomah was open right off of the snap for a first down.

I am certain that Herbert would have hit his back step and ripped the pass out to the left sideline to Uzomah and the defender in the area would not have been able to react quickly enough. What I do not know is whether Burrow failed to see Uzomah or did not have confidence that he could make the throw that we all know Herbert can make. But with the game on the line, Burrow has to let the ball go. This was their season.

[Guest]

I was referring to one of the many ridiculous comments you made earlier in the thread, in which you said you had Burrow ranked #12.

#12 for Burrow is not ridiculous at all, especially where I have acknowledged that #8 to #12 is a close group. Again, Rosenthal is not ranking the same thing I am. Some of what Rosenthal has to say is ridiculous. Mahomes behind Burrow. Tannehill and Carr ahead of Cousins. Stafford and Burrow as top 5 QBs without Brady included. That is all crazy talk.

I did not mention this before, but his discussion of Burrow is silly as well. He played his worst group of three games, but he is why they won. He got the part where Burrow played poorly correct, but he missed the part about the opposing QBs gift wrapping victories for the Bengals. If the Bengals are to be given credit for those games, then the credit goes to the defense for both games for coming up with big turnovers late that almost already had the team in FG at the start of each possession.

[Guest]

And this has been the same story over and over again since Norv Turner was hired. We're not winning any Super Bowls until we build a team that wins both sides of the line of scrimmage consistently. A competent owner would be looking for a new general manager to achieve that goal. Unfortunately, we don't have a competent owner, and he's satisfied with Herbert throwing the ball 672 times and putting up impressive stats in one season because it gets the fans excited. This is proven in this thread, in which we have a few posters who seem to be more concerned with Justin Herbert being superior to Joe Burrow than the team actually winning games. But this doesn't get you deep into the playoffs, if you even make it at all, which we haven't seven out of the nine years Tom Telesco has been general manager.

FFS, this thread is called "Herbert vs. His Peers". The point of the thread is to compare Herbert to his peers.

Screw "making fans excited", I want Herbert throwing the ball 672 times because he is the best QB in the entire league. It seems like you have no idea what we have in Herbert.

We were 5th in pass to run ratio, which fits because we have Herbert. And we were barely even within 4% of the team that passed the ball the highest percentage of the time (Tampa Bay). We were right between LV (4th) and KC (6th) in this category with all three teams being within just over one half of one percent of each other.

It was obvious what Telesco was doing last year. He prioritized the OL because he and Staley correctly realize that Herbert is the franchise. he hoped the defense would be better, but it was not, so this year's changes should be more on the defensive side of the ball if most of our own desirable free agents are re-signed.

[Scott Green]

Rosenthal is not ranking the same thing that I am. How can you miss that? He is ranking QBs of the 2021 season, I am ranking the QBs going forward, which is evidenced significantly, but not entirely by the QB's performance in 2021. Rosenthal is just looking at 2021 period.

So let's look at the most important thing first, which is where Rosenthal and I are in full agreement. Herbert is better than Burrow.

Now, let's see how my analysis would naturally differ from Rosenthal's because we are not ranking the same thing. First, Tom Brady has retired, so that moves Herbert up in the rankings. Honestly, I have already said that Herbert and Allen are my top two QBs going forward and Rosenthal has them at #2 and #3 with Rodgers above them. Rodgers had a great year, but his future is uncertain and my focus is the immediate future, which clearly explains the difference between my ranking and Rosenthal's. But it is the same three guys at the top once the retired Brady is removed (because he is not going forward).

Next, Watson did not play, so Rosenthal does not rank him and I do--between Herbert and Burrow, which is obviously where he belongs, which increases the QBs between Herbert and Burrow.

Further, I do not like Mahomes and think he has always been overrated to some degree, but putting Burrow ahead of Mahomes is almost as silly as putting Burrow ahead of Allen or Herbert, so I think I am right and Rosenthal is just wrong there on a going forward basis. Mahomes is elite. Burrow is not.

On top of that, by just looking at 2021 stats and not what the QB is going forward, Rosenthal's differing emphasis substantially lowers the rankings of Jackson and Russell Wilson, players that were injured and/or had severe team injuries that hurt their performance in 2021, but whose performances are not likely to suffer going forward based upon their consistent career performance apart from 2021. These are players that are reasonably expected to better than Burrow going forward.

Like me, of the group that includes Stafford, Prescott, Murray, Cousins and Burrow, Rosenthal has Stafford as the highest ranked. Though, I do see a bunch of recency bias with Stafford and Burrow both being ranking higher than they should be overall. This may also contribute to Mahomes being somehow ranked below Burrow and Stafford as he had that horrible second half of the AFCCG to end his season. But let me ask it this way, if one were to be able to pick a QB for 2022 of the three, who would be selected? Mahomes, of course. Again, he is the elite QB of that group, whereas the others are in the above average group.

I really cannot account for Carr being ranked in the top 10 by Rosenthal. I am higher on Carr than most, but I see him as an upper mid level QB, the tier below Stafford, Prescott, Murray, Cousins and Burrow. And the Tannehill ranking by Rosenthal at #12, of course, is a lot off as he struggled this season pretty much across the board and lacks the career consistency of someone like Cousins, who has been statistically rock solid and consistently above average throughout his time with the Vikings.

Rosenthal has Prescott and Murray in the #8-12 range as I do. He ranks Murray higher than I would, but we are in exact agreement as to Prescott, who I also have as #9 overall. IMO, Prescott is better than Burrow.

Ill give you the best and easiest way to evaluate a QB that says a lot more than just stats. You're down by 4, 1:45 to go with 2 timeouts on your own 25. Who do you want for your Qb? You look at the Chiefs Bills game or Raiders Chargers or Rams Bucs and you see why Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Stafford are the guys you want. Cousins and those guys don't scare me. Those guys I just listed and a few others do.

[Steve]

Burrow also didn't play well on the playoffs.

A lot of teams bring their "A" game to the playoffs, so QB aren't as sharp as the regular season. A lot more man-to-man coverage, more blitzes, and all executed at a very high level. QB needs to be outstanding to get the same results as regular-season games. And the teams tend to be more complete rosters, so the holes that you can usually exploit just aren't there.

[richpjr]

I gotta say, it is pretty impressive at the sheer number of times the same point about Burrow is being made (worded slightly differently and with cherry picked stats) in an attempt to make a point. The funny thing is we got it by page 2, yet here we are on page 20 with the same points being made. At some point, don't you get tired of repeating the same thing?