Herbert vs His Peers

[equivocation]

You are, once again, refusing to provide an explanation for the success of pass first teams in the current NFL era. One begins to think you can't.

[DerwinBosa]

You are, once again, refusing to provide an explanation for the success of pass first teams in the current NFL era. One begins to think you can't.

You are, once again, failing to realize that your stupid statistic didn't apply to the most important games of those teams' seasons. The Bucs threw the ball whatever amount they did (I don't care) in the 2020 regular season and went 11-5, losing to such powerhouses as the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff version), and getting blown out on Sunday Night by the Saints, 38-3. In the postseason, when they went 4-0, they averaged a little over 30 carries (30.25 to be exact) and 34 (34.5 to be exact) passes a game. Multiply that over 17 regular-season games and it comes out to 587 pass attempts and 514 rushes. Clearly running the ball more helped the Bucs that postseason, as they won the Super Bowl.

Why is this such a problem for you? If Tom Telesco gets a stud or starting-caliber right tackle in the first round and finds a gem of a running back in the second or third (similar to Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt), you're telling me you're going to be upset if that running back gets 350 carries for 1,400 yards or more and Herbert throws it only 550 times?

[Maniaque 6]

Someone realise that NE won a game in BUF this year only with their rushing offense ?

[SBbound]

Someone realise that NE won a game in BUF this year only with their rushing offense ?

That was a crazy game.

[dmac_bolt]

Someone realise that NE won a game in BUF this year only with their rushing offense ?

Yeah, it was pouring rain and they have an under-armed rookie QB. How’d they do in the rematch without a monsoon for cover?

[Guest]

You are, once again, failing to realize that your stupid statistic didn't apply to the most important games of those teams' seasons. The Bucs threw the ball whatever amount they did (I don't care) in the 2020 regular season and went 11-5, losing to such powerhouses as the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams (Jared Goff version), and getting blown out on Sunday Night by the Saints, 38-3. In the postseason, when they went 4-0, they averaged a little over 30 carries (30.25 to be exact) and 34 (34.5 to be exact) passes a game. Multiply that over 17 regular-season games and it comes out to 587 pass attempts and 514 rushes. Clearly running the ball more helped the Bucs that postseason, as they won the Super Bowl.

Why is this such a problem for you? If Tom Telesco gets a stud or starting-caliber right tackle in the first round and finds a gem of a running back in the second or third (similar to Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt), you're telling me you're going to be upset if that running back gets 350 carries for 1,400 yards or more and Herbert throws it only 550 times?

So, your take is to ignore the large regular season sample size and cherry pick one or a few isolated games. As I have stated previously, your take establishes nothing. It is ridiculous on its face.

Of course, it is problematic to run the ball heavily when the team has an elite QB. In 2021, every team that had both an elite QB and threw the ball in the top 5 in terms of percentage of passing plays produced a top 5 scoring offense--without exception. It is better for those teams not to be anywhere near balanced. And we are one of those teams.

It is common sense. Put the ball a lot in the hands of your elite player that is capable of making the single greatest difference in offensive production.

My prediction is that you will implode 10-15 years from now when the percentages have skewed another 5% toward the pass and teams start coming in passing the ball over 70% of the time for the entire season. And you will not comprehend as you do not now how teams like that that also have elite QBs will be among the top scoring teams every time.

At some point, you will have to figure that we are not playing 1990s NFL football any longer. Balance for the sake of balance is laughable.

[Guest]

I clearly stated Young didn't have a cannon. Roethlisberger's arm strength was overrated. It wasn't near the cannon that Herbert's or Mahomes' is. I was talking about the complete package, which includes everything. Clearly that went over your head.

Pennington was a decent quarterback who had a very weak arm before his injuries. But I'm sorry I brought him up, because I opened the door for you to make an even more ridiculous comparison to Joe Burrow than Kirk Cousins. Burrow is a much better scrambler than Pennington was. You just get more ridiculous by the post.

I never stated that every individual physical trait of the QB had to be elite for the QB to be elite. How could I with Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson on my list of elite QBs? Young was an elite runner at QB and a very accurate passer whose arm strength was slightly underrated. Young is arguably the most underrated QB in NFL history.

Your take on Pennington is so laughably lame that it is truly pathetic. Pennington was faster and more elusive than Burrow. And before he had multiple nearly career ending shoulder injuries, his arm strength was an awful lot like Burrow's--a little below average. It only became very weak after he sustained serious injuries. The very weak armed later version of Pennington never would have been drafted in the first round if his arm strength were that much of an issue.

And I have actually made this comparison before, so you brought up nothing that I had not already considered. Pennington was once an above average QB that even led the league in completion percentage, TD% and passer rating in 2002. He was not very fast (only a little faster than Burrow) and did not have a great arm (just like Burrow), but he was very accurate. Sound like anyone who plays in today's NFL? You know, like Burrow.

I am not here to say that Roethlisberger was ever Allen or Herbert, but he was much more athletic than you were making him out to be. How many knew (before I posted about it) that Roethlisberger in his physical prime wins a foot race against Mahomes? And his arm strength was pretty good in his physical prime as well. He was never in Josh Allen territory, but he did have an above average arm.

Of course, the point is that players like Young and Roethlisberger are nowhere close to being physically similar to the far less physically gifted Burrow, whereas as Chad Pennington was very similar physically to Burrow. The players were within 1 inch of each other in height (Burrow is one inch taller). The players were similar in weight (Pennington was 9 pounds heavier). Pennington was under one tenth of a second faster than Burrow in the 40 with neither player being fast. Both had/have slightly below average NFL arms. Both were/are known for their passing accuracy.

[Guest]

Screen passes are a flawed way to try and take the steam out of the pass rush. It is nice as one option, but if the other team reads it, the play is over, and that can be hard on the QB if the DL continues to come in hard while a LB or S takes covers the screen guy, the QB gets hit hard. We are also a terrible screen team and have been for a while. Ekeler makes some of the plays look really good, but most of the time the blocking is really not that effecitve

They also are much better vs man coverage, than zone. Teams that play matchup zones can still bring plenty of players and you can't block them all.

The draw thing is another decent option, but you can only go to it so often, and if the pass rusher counters his upfield move back into the lane, the RB is screwed.

Running still gives teams a chance to impose their will on the defense. At some point all this bullshit about taking what the defense gives you is playing the game they want you to play. No defense can stop everything, so they give you things that will hurt less and try to make some plays on their own.

And teams that don't try and run the ball and work at it never get better. It takes practice time, it takes game time and it takes patience.

You seem obsessed that analytics idiots have with efficiency. Efficiency is the cornerstone of most analytics analysis outside of sports (bussiness). However, in all of those, efficiency is the key because the game never ends.

In football, there is a hard end to the game. So, efficiency isn't the end all be all. Who cares if you are necessarily being efficient in the offensive or defensive or (ST) sense, it is the efficiency in the point differential, and even that is not that important. The ideal way to end a football game once you have a lead would be to average 3.4 yards per play and drive the ball down and score and eat up the clock while doing so. But none of your poorly thought-through assumptions factor in how to help the D. Keeping them off the field and the offense on is still the best way to protect a bad D and help a good or great D.

You are also dead wrong in your shared assumption with Tony Romo, which is pretty easily done, since Tony is not one of the world's great thinkers. You are ASSUMING that every time we throw that Herbert is a shot to make a 1st down. A lot of our 2nd (and some 3rd down) attempts are not throwing the ball for a 1st down. They are trying to set up a better down and distance for 3rd or 4th down. That is particularly true when we are behind schedule. Those passes aren't giving Herbert a chance. Running to keep on or ahead of schedule is a really, really good way to maintain the attack part of the passing offense. When you are ahead of schedule the WR are going downfield rather than asking our WR, who are NOT quick game specialists, to run route combinations that attack downfield.

No, you are assuming that that is what I and Romo are assuming and you are dead wrong. An opportunity to throw for a first down means a passing play, period, not some bizarre interpretation by exactly one person (you) in which the QB is only allowed to throw beyond the sticks wherever they might be.

BTW, Romo is widely regarded as the best commentator in the game today precisely because of his mental ability to dissect plays pre-snap. He has been dubbed "Romostradamus" by some because of his unique ability.

Regarding unbalanced offensive attacks, it is really quite simple. Every team that had an elite QB and was in the top 5 in percentage of the time passing the ball was in the tp 5 in scoring--every time, without exception.

You speak of the end of the game, but overlook the main portion of the game where a superior offense should desire more possessions to build a difference in points. The larger the sample size, the better it is for more dominant offenses.

Except for end of half or end of game strategy, I do not want our offense spending even one fraction of a second worrying about our defense. The defense needs to be built up to the point at which it does not need to rely on the offense for anything. Point differential continues to get built up until the game is very far out of reach. The clock is managed by getting first downs (intelligent football), which means passing with a large lead, and not by running the ball and then punting. Unlike stupid Anthony Lynn loser football, our current coaches get this, which is why we threw to get first downs at the end of the game with a small lead and trying to run out the clock against WAS.

Screens and draws under the pass rush are just a couple of ways to frustrate edge rushers. Nobody is suggesting that we only run those plays. Running plays can happen when they are set up properly by the superior passing game.

In an ideal world, we would actually pass at a slightly greater percentage than we did in 2021.

[AK47]

BTW, Romo is widely regarded as the best commentator in the game today precisely because of his mental ability to dissect plays pre-snap. He has been dubbed "Romostradamus" by some because of his unique ability.

Romo is overrated. Sure he has a cool commentator job. Has cool Sketchers and Corona beer commercials. Once dated Carrier Underwood then downgraded and married some beauty queen chick. "Romostradamus" sure turned out to be a loser.

[Velo]

How about Herbert vs his predecessors?

After two seasons Herbert is sixth all time in franchise history in passing yards and TD passes, behind Rivers, Fouts, Hadl, Humphreys and Brees. If he continues to put up the numbers he has the past two seasons, he will surpass Brees in yardage & TD passes next season and Humphries the following season. Right now his completion percentage, yards per game, and QB rating are better than any of these 5 predecessors. His INT rate is lower than all five and his TD rate is higher than all of them, except Hadl, with whom he is tied.

[Bolt-O]

How about Herbert vs his predecessors?

After two seasons Herbert is sixth all time in franchise history in passing yards and TD passes, behind Rivers, Fouts, Hadl, Humphreys and Brees. If he continues to put up the numbers he has the past two seasons, he will surpass Brees in yardage & TD passes next season and Humphries the following season. Right now his completion percentage, yards per game, and QB rating are better than any of these 5 predecessors. His INT rate is lower than all five and his TD rate is higher than all of them, except Hadl, with whom he is tied.

Please don't hijack the topic.

[Xenos]

Kurt Warner on Herbert:

https://www.chargers.com/news/kurt-warner-justin-herbert-analyzes-radio-row-2021

Warner gave insight into the mind of a veteran quarterback and talked about what he's watching as he evaluates current QBs.

Warner noted all the physical attributes Herbert had on gamedays during his rookie season, but in year two, Warner saw Herbert unlock a new aspect of his game.

"It's just the combination of the physical stuff. You start to see that and you see these 'wow' throws and you are like 'oh my gosh' [with] what he's capable of from a physical standpoint. But to me, as a former quarterback, I'm always watching the mental. I want to see a guy grow and understand what he's seeing and being able to get the ball out of his hands quickly. So, you know his first year was a lot more 'bombs away' and you got to see that physical stuff that impressed you. This year, what I loved about him was the way he played the game with his mind and the way he got the ball out of his hands. You start putting those two things together along with the talent that you've got around him and there's big things to come for this Chargers football team."