AFC West Roster Positional Rankings

[powderblueboy]

Your take is just false. The Chiefs did win in the playoffs with Alex Smith at QB by a 30-0 score over HOU at the end of the 2015 season.

Also, it is ridiculous to blame Smith for the team's playoff loss to the Titans at the end of the 2017 season. Smith had a passer rating of over 116 for that game and threw 2 TD passes with zero INTs. KC wins that game if either Butker makes the FG he missed or Mariota does not score one of the greatest fluke playoff TDs of all time on a completed batted pass TD to himself on third down on the way to TEN winning 22-21. Also, it might have helped if KC's defense did not give up 202 yards on the ground to the Titans (after giving up 170 yards to Bell at 5.7 yards per carry in a narrow 18-16 loss to PIT in the playoffs the year before).

Further, while playoff wins are team accomplishments, even if you could twist that into an argument that the playoff wins are due to the difference between Smith and Mahomes, which is mostly not true, it would still only show that Mahomes is better than Smith, a point nobody is debating. It does not demonstrate that Mahomes is better than Herbert.

And are you kidding with the question about how Herbert was better than Mahomes in 2021 other than in TDs? I have already pointed out that Herbert was better than Mahomes in passing yards, TDs and QBR. In addition, Herbert was also better than Mahomes in total completions, YPA, passing yards per game (obviously), air yards per completion (by a full yard per completion over Mahomes), total completed air yards (by 487 yards), lowest bad throw percentage (by 4.2%), on target percentage (by 2.7%), and fewest turnovers (Mahomes fumbled 9 times, but was lucky and only lost 4 versus Herbert's only "fumble" being that obvious BS call on the incomplete pass against WAS that traveled 20 yards down the field into the end zone that was called a "fumble"--so basically Herbert was second in passing attempts and did not fumble the ball at all last season versus Mahomes fumbling at a rate of greater than half a fumble per game).

Ranking Herbert over Mahomes, what you have called blind homerism, is completely consistent with Herbert being voted to start over Mahomes in last year's Pro Bowl game as at least some of those voting are doing so on the basis of which QB they think is better. The conclusion that Herbert is better than Mahomes appears to have considerable support among the public at large (i.e., lots that folks that are not "blind homer Chargers fans"). This, of course, is in addition to former head coaches like Jimmy Johnson stating that he would select Herbert over anyone in the entire league in a hypothetical draft.

Moreover, this entire thread has been about positional rankings for the 2022 season in the AFCW, which has not happened yet. It is entirely about the future. So you are in the wrong thread if you do not want anyone talking about the future.

As I have demonstrated above, Herbert has already been better than Mahomes in a multitude of statistical categories. Accordingly, he was already better than Mahomes was in 2021. Add to that that Herbert is more physically gifted and intelligent than Mahomes (higher ceiling); that Herbert is ascending and Mahomes is not; and that Herbert is getting to play a second season in the same offensive system for the first time ever in either college or the NFL while Mahomes has lost his most dangerous receiving weapon, and it really is not too difficult to project which QB should be better in 2022. The clear answer is Herbert.

KC lost playoff nail biters to the Steelers, Tennessee and to a lesser extent New England under Smith.

They were not that far away....Mahomes and a few others put them over the top.

If prime Alex Smith was their qb this year, K.C. would be looking at 7 to 8 wins max.

[dmac_bolt]

Your take is just false. The Chiefs did win in the playoffs with Alex Smith at QB by a 30-0 score over HOU at the end of the 2015 season.

Also, it is ridiculous to blame Smith for the team's playoff loss to the Titans at the end of the 2017 season. Smith had a passer rating of over 116 for that game and threw 2 TD passes with zero INTs. KC wins that game if either Butker makes the FG he missed or Mariota does not score one of the greatest fluke playoff TDs of all time on a completed batted pass TD to himself on third down on the way to TEN winning 22-21. Also, it might have helped if KC's defense did not give up 202 yards on the ground to the Titans (after giving up 170 yards to Bell at 5.7 yards per carry in a narrow 18-16 loss to PIT in the playoffs the year before).

Further, while playoff wins are team accomplishments, even if you could twist that into an argument that the playoff wins are due to the difference between Smith and Mahomes, which is mostly not true, it would still only show that Mahomes is better than Smith, a point nobody is debating. It does not demonstrate that Mahomes is better than Herbert.

And are you kidding with the question about how Herbert was better than Mahomes in 2021 other than in TDs? I have already pointed out that Herbert was better than Mahomes in passing yards, TDs and QBR. In addition, Herbert was also better than Mahomes in total completions, YPA, passing yards per game (obviously), air yards per completion (by a full yard per completion over Mahomes), total completed air yards (by 487 yards), lowest bad throw percentage (by 4.2%), on target percentage (by 2.7%), and fewest turnovers (Mahomes fumbled 9 times, but was lucky and only lost 4 versus Herbert's only "fumble" being that obvious BS call on the incomplete pass against WAS that traveled 20 yards down the field into the end zone that was called a "fumble"--so basically Herbert was second in passing attempts and did not fumble the ball at all last season versus Mahomes fumbling at a rate of greater than half a fumble per game).

Ranking Herbert over Mahomes, what you have called blind homerism, is completely consistent with Herbert being voted to start over Mahomes in last year's Pro Bowl game as at least some of those voting are doing so on the basis of which QB they think is better. The conclusion that Herbert is better than Mahomes appears to have considerable support among the public at large (i.e., lots that folks that are not "blind homer Chargers fans"). This, of course, is in addition to former head coaches like Jimmy Johnson stating that he would select Herbert over anyone in the entire league in a hypothetical draft.

Moreover, this entire thread has been about positional rankings for the 2022 season in the AFCW, which has not happened yet. It is entirely about the future. So you are in the wrong thread if you do not want anyone talking about the future.

As I have demonstrated above, Herbert has already been better than Mahomes in a multitude of statistical categories. Accordingly, he was already better than Mahomes was in 2021. Add to that that Herbert is more physically gifted and intelligent than Mahomes (higher ceiling); that Herbert is ascending and Mahomes is not; and that Herbert is getting to play a second season in the same offensive system for the first time ever in either college or the NFL while Mahomes has lost his most dangerous receiving weapon, and it really is not too difficult to project which QB should be better in 2022. The clear answer is Herbert.

That was the worst “fumble” call I have seen in 50(+?) years of consuming football. How a pass 20 yards downfield can be called anything but incomplete is the most absurd incorrect call ever, period, and it cost us that game imo. Brady would have been called incomplete if it went 20 yards backwards. Tuck it, baby.

Its perfectly ok for some to think Mahomes is a better QB now (e.g. 2022 and forward). Arguing its absolute fact and indisputable is just stupid. I do think they are both more than good enough that the better team is going to be the better team.

and no way Mahomes is 6’3” . And he walks like either he needs to take a shit or he just took one that was wider than exit capacity. So there! Fuck Mahomes, this is Justin Junction in the heart of Herbert Habitat!

[Steve]

The "this guy is better than that player" argument because of the "what makes a better player" thing.

Herbert is the better pocket passer.

Mahommes has better overall production, but a lot of his elite play comes from him extending plays and making throws outside of the pocket. Inside the pocket, he is still really good, but not nearly as great as opposed to his play out of the pocket. He has also had a better supporting cast than Herbert has had, and there is no way to filter out that kind of help from the stats.

FWIW, Mahommes was 74.13" tall at the combine.

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=22408

[Guest]

That was the worst “fumble” call I have seen in 50(+?) years of consuming football. How a pass 20 yards downfield can be called anything but incomplete is the most absurd incorrect call ever, period, and it cost us that game imo. Brady would have been called incomplete if it went 20 yards backwards. Tuck it, baby.

Its perfectly ok for some to think Mahomes is a better QB now (e.g. 2022 and forward). Arguing its absolute fact and indisputable is just stupid. I do think they are both more than good enough that the better team is going to be the better team.

and no way Mahomes is 6’3” . And he walks like either he needs to take a shit or he just took one that was wider than exit capacity. So there! Fuck Mahomes, this is Justin Junction in the heart of Herbert Habitat!

We won the WAS game with the terrible fumble call on the Herbert incomplete pass into the end zone. To me, though, it is amazing with the exception of the bad call, Herbert did not fumble the ball at all last year. There is a big difference between that standard and butterfingers Mahomes with his 9 fumbles.

I have no issue with people trying to argue that Mahomes is better as long as the positions advanced make sense and relate to the individual player's abilities and not to team accomplishments. However, a very good argument can be made in Herbert's favor over Mahomes. I found 11 or so statistical categories in which Herbert was the better QB last year and in some of those categories Herbert was better by a pretty wide margin. And having seen the two play on the field in person, there is no way to miss that Herbert is the bigger, stronger, faster, better athlete who throws a better ball than Mahomes does. For anyone that has not seen them live, I can tell you that the difference between the two stands out more in person than it does on television.

It is clearly not "pure homerism" as claimed by DerwinBosa to conclude that Herbert is better than Mahomes going forward. There is a bunch of evidence that supports that conclusion.

[Guest]

The "this guy is better than that player" argument because of the "what makes a better player" thing.

Herbert is the better pocket passer.

Mahommes has better overall production, but a lot of his elite play comes from him extending plays and making throws outside of the pocket. Inside the pocket, he is still really good, but not nearly as great as opposed to his play out of the pocket. He has also had a better supporting cast than Herbert has had, and there is no way to filter out that kind of help from the stats.

FWIW, Mahommes was 74.13" tall at the combine.
https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=22408

Regarding the part quoted above in bold, Herbert passed for more yards and TDs than Mahomes did last year. He also had the better YPA and QBR. He was more accurate (higher on target percentage) and had a lower bad throw percentage.

I agree that Mahomes has been at his best in his career outside of the pocket and that he is not as good inside the pocket. However, a big part of that outside of the pocket success was due to Tyreek Hill, so I suspect Mahomes' outside the pocket passing stats will take a hit this season at least to some degree without Hill.

[Guest]

KC lost playoff nail biters to the Steelers, Tennessee and to a lesser extent New England under Smith.

They were not that far away....Mahomes and a few others put them over the top.

If prime Alex Smith was their qb this year, K.C. would be looking at 7 to 8 wins max.

I would not say that with "prime Alex Smith" the Chiefs would only win 7-8 games. IMO, Smith is underrated by most. He was good enough to make three Pro Bowls. And his teams did not having a single losing record with him as the starter in the final 10 years of his career.

[sonorajim]

Regarding the part quoted above in bold, Herbert passed for more yards and TDs than Mahomes did last year. He also had the better YPA and QBR. He was more accurate (higher on target percentage) and had a lower bad throw percentage.

I agree that Mahomes has been at his best in his career outside of the pocket and that he is not as good inside the pocket. However, a big part of that outside of the pocket success was due to Tyreek Hill, so I suspect Mahomes' outside the pocket passing stats will take a hit this season at least to some degree without Hill.

I like the better pocket passer who can extend a play if needed, Herbert. (duh)
I'm interested to see Herbert in a 2nd season of this offense with, hopefully, an improved, consistent OL , run game, fewer dropped passes.
And, of course, a quality defense, avg or better special teams.

Report to training camp 18 days, 7-27.

[Boltjolt]

He was essentially the 3rd target, much like Guyton.

50 + catches and providing another deep threat is a good season when Hill/Kelce get most of the targets.
In 2018 he played in only 10 games....that would project out to 60 + catches.

Hardman & Robinson have fortunately not provided what Watkins gave the Chiefs his first two years there.
Chief's defense had steadily improved since 2018 to offset their less dynamic offense.

If Everett or Palmer get 50 + catches this upcoming year, with Williams/Allen as the primary guys, they'd have mediocre years?
Hill & a prime Kelce were a clearly better combo.

I would guess one injury too many in 2020 for Watkins. No, he was never worth what it cost Buffalo to move up.

Since 2016 he has had over 50 receptions just once. His last two seasons he has 54 combined. Watkins is very injury prone and has underchieved. If you like him, great.
Hec id be ok if he were still on the Chiefs and injured. When Watkins had 52 in KC that ONE time, Tyreek only had 58. Robinson had 32. I wouldnt want Watkins now at all with his injury history.

If Everette and Palmer both had 50 catches it would be decent years. Actually it would be mediocre for Everett considering Cook had 48 in 83 targets and he dropped nearly 10.

If Mike Williams had Watkins numbers and games missed he would be the labeled a bust in here. Hec he nearly was anyways for missing 1 or 2 games a year.

[Boltjolt]

KC lost playoff nail biters to the Steelers, Tennessee and to a lesser extent New England under Smith.

They were not that far away....Mahomes and a few others put them over the top.

If prime Alex Smith was their qb this year, K.C. would be looking at 7 to 8 wins max.

KC did have some nail biters and like Rivers, it wasnt Smiths fault his kicker missed some kicks.

https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/

To CC's points that you highlighted but didnt respond to,..... Herbert did not have a better QBR ( .7 difference) or a better completion % than Mahomes last season(.4% difference) and Mahomey had 2 less INTs, and the YPA there was a .1 difference. I mean those number ara so little seperating them it isnt even worth mentionging who was better. And nobody cares about air yards lol.

I'll still take Herbert over him going forward as i think Herberts cieling is higher and he now is in his 2nd season in the same offense while Mahomes is in the same system his whole career.

[dmac_bolt]

We won the WAS game with the terrible fumble call on the Herbert incomplete pass into the end zone. To me, though, it is amazing with the exception of the bad call, Herbert did not fumble the ball at all last year. There is a big difference between that standard and butterfingers Mahomes with his 9 fumbles.

I have no issue with people trying to argue that Mahomes is better as long as the positions advanced make sense and relate to the individual player's abilities and not to team accomplishments. However, a very good argument can be made in Herbert's favor over Mahomes. I found 11 or so statistical categories in which Herbert was the better QB last year and in some of those categories Herbert was better by a pretty wide margin. And having seen the two play on the field in person, there is no way to miss that Herbert is the bigger, stronger, faster, better athlete who throws a better ball than Mahomes does. For anyone that has not seen them live, I can tell you that the difference between the two stands out more in person than it does on television.

It is clearly not "pure homerism" as claimed by DerwinBosa to conclude that Herbert is better than Mahomes going forward. There is a bunch of evidence that supports that conclusion.

You’re right - mybad - thanks for the correction.

I think Herbert is better. I think its fair to say that ANYONE who states x vs y is just stating his/her opinion.

And no way is Mahomes 6’3”

[dmac_bolt]

I would not say that with "prime Alex Smith" the Chiefs would only win 7-8 games. IMO, Smith is underrated by most. He was good enough to make three Pro Bowls. And his teams did not having a single losing record with him as the starter in the final 10 years of his career.

Smith was 50-26 in KC. The 7-8 downgrade is just Mahomerism

[ChargersPowderBlue]

I agree that Mahomes has been at his best in his career outside of the pocket and that he is not as good inside the pocket. However, a big part of that outside of the pocket success was due to Tyreek Hill, so I suspect Mahomes' outside the pocket passing stats will take a hit this season at least to some degree without Hill.

The same thing is the case with Russell Wilson that people say about Mahomes. Except Wilson is even worse when it comes to being forced to stay inside the pocket. I don't buy the whole thing about not "letting Russ cook".