Former OC Kellen Moore - Discussion

[Boltnut]

oh, and BTW... I'm taking those stats from within the 10 yard line (not the 20).

Inside the 20... no problem being 50/50 run/pass.
Even @the 20... your passing windows are condensed, however.

There's one other strong armed QB that's pretty bad in the RZ... Josh Allen (50% IIRC)

[dmac_bolt]

In a black&white world.... where the only 2 options are 1) run it 3 times in a row... or 2) throw it 3 times in a row...

1st-and-goal from the 6... I'm giving it to the NFL's leading TD scorer (over the last 2 years).
Of course, I'm not running it from whatever bullshit formation Lombo would run it from.

Last year's redzone efficiency learders:

1. Dallas: 71.43%
2. Kansas City: 71.04%
3. Philadelphia: 68.00%
18. LA Chargers: 54.55%

Corresponding QB Completion rates: Season/Redzone

1. Dak: 66.2 < 70.2
2. Mahommes: 67.1 > 58.7
3. Hurts: 66.5 > 50.0
18. Herbert: 68.2 > 56.7

While most QB's passing percentage goes down in the redzone, it's curious that Dak's actually went up!
Only one other QB became a better passer in the redzone: Justin Fields (60.4 ---> 62.2) That's right... Justin Fields has a better passing percentage than Justin Herbert in the redzone. Sadly, the Bears are better @ scoring TD's in the redzone than us... 56.0 > 54.55 To be clear... Bears best receiver was TE Cole Kmet.

I'm not saying run every time in the redzone... but maybe a 55/45 run/pass might yield better results...?

I don’t put that Herbert completion rate on Herbert either. Lombo’s route designs in the end zone were shit and easy to defend, and being run by practice squad rejects for much of the year. The inability to run inside the 5 led to obvious pass plays. Parham was often unavailable, and Everett sometimes would jump out of the way of the pass.

(Yeah, that one still bugs lol)

I expect we are more like Dallas conversion rate this year.

[sonorajim]

I don’t put that Herbert completion rate on Herbert either. Lombo’s route designs in the end zone were shit and easy to defend, and being run by practice squad rejects for much of the year. The inability to run inside the 5 led to obvious pass plays. Parham was often unavailable, and Everett sometimes would jump out of the way of the pass.

(Yeah, that one still bugs lol)

I expect we are more like Dallas conversion rate this year.

It will take awhile for that picture to fade. It was right there when I was pounding the keyboard "Draft TE! "

[SuperCharged]

I think Everett is an above average TE. He has increased his yards per season every year in the league. He's not getting worse. I was fine keeping our current group of TE's.

[gzubeck]

I think Everett is an above average TE. He has increased his yards per season every year in the league. He's not getting worse. I was fine keeping our current group of TE's.

I think we are going to have a WTF moment after we get to consistently see what Moore does with this offense. Sort of like "What were we doing with Lombardi for two seasons?"

[Boltnut]

I don’t put that Herbert completion rate on Herbert either. Lombo’s route designs in the end zone were shit and easy to defend, and being run by practice squad rejects for much of the year. The inability to run inside the 5 led to obvious pass plays. Parham was often unavailable, and Everett sometimes would jump out of the way of the pass.

(Yeah, that one still bugs lol)

I expect we are more like Dallas conversion rate this year.

So... it's 1st and goal from the 3 yard line... you're about to go up by 7... on the road... 10;30 left in the 4th quarter...
Considering all of the things in bold above.... what's your call....?! Please don't tell me it's a pass............

[Boltnut]

I think Everett is an above average TE. He has increased his yards per season every year in the league. He's not getting worse. I was fine keeping our current group of TE's.

100% agree! And all anybody can remember about him is the interception play... they probably can't remember how we got to the 3 yard line in the first place. LOL!
Most of them don't recognize that at the 3-yard line... you run the damn ball. They'll tell you we don't have a RB that can score a TD... but forget that we have a RB that has scored more TD's than any other running back in the league for the last 2 years in a row.

There is this weird selective remembering/forgetting trend goin on @TPB lately.

A lot of people still have their feelings hurt we didn't select a TE or RB in the draft.
Shhhhhhhhh.... we already have them.

[YAC]

at the 3-yard line... you run the damn ball.

80% of the time, IMO. If you don't occasionally put a pass play on tape you are needlessly predictable. And I can assure you, Chiefs aren't hesitant to throw inside the five.

Match-ups are a big part of it.

I don't have stats for inside the five, but Chiefs passed 73 times inside opponent's ten (29 TDs), most in the NFL. Bills and Bengals, two other high successful teams, were high in such passing attempts.

So I don't agree that you just run it all the time down there. Binary thinking doesn't work.

Data from here:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/redzone-passing.htm

[Maniaque 6]

So... it's 1st and goal from the 3 yard line... you're about to go up by 7... on the road... 10;30 left in the 4th quarter...
Considering all of the things in bold above.... what's your call....?! Please don't tell me it's a pass............

Don't tell me you are going to run the ball 4 times !

[Boltnut]

80% of the time, IMO. If you don't occasionally put a pass play on tape you are needlessly predictable. And I can assure you, Chiefs aren't hesitant to throw inside the five.

Match-ups are a big part of it.

I don't have stats for inside the five, but Chiefs passed 73 times inside opponent's ten (29 TDs), most in the NFL. Bills and Bengals, two other high successful teams, were high in such passing attempts.

So I don't agree that you just run it all the time down there. Binary thinking doesn't work.

Data from here:
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...ne-passing.htm

Thank you! I knew someone would find redzone stats for run/pass and/or Herbert/Ekeler redzone comparisons.

Accordingly, Austin Ekeler had 24 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line... resulting in 10 TD's.
Inside the 5-yard line, Austin Ekeler had 8 attempts... resulting in 6 TD's.
Now someone (incorrectly) stated that we couldn't run inside the 5 yard-line. But 75% TD rate (per attempt) dis-spells that myth.

I don't see Justin Herbert's "Inside the 5-yard line" stats... but they do show his "Inside the 10-yard line" stats...
Hertbert had 49 attempts (27 completions) inside the 10-yard line... 55% completion rate. 12 TD's, 1 interception (a 14-point swing BTW).

Since I only have "inside the 10-yard line" stats... let's compare those Lombardi tendencies.
Inside the 10-yard line, Lombardi had the Chargers throw 49 times and rush only 24 times... that's 67% of the time!
Despite throwing the ball twice more than running the ball... it resulted in only 2 more TD's (12 vs. 10)... and, of course, the 1 costly turnover.

I'm sorry... but it is really hard to defend that kind of thinking. I'm 100% sure that Kellen Moore will not throw the ball inside the 10-yard line 67% of the time... thank Gawd! Am I saying never throw the ball (some seem to misconstrue what I'm saying) inside the 10-yard line...? No! I'm simply asking for a 60/40 run pass/ratio in the redzone. It's not a revolutionary idea, people!

If you have a good matchup vs. Keenan or Mike... by all means... take your shot.
But never ever forget... Gerald Everett vs a rookie 7th round pick looked pretty tempting. Mike Williams vs a rookie CB on 4th-and-short appeared to be a great matchup. No whining when those moments end in turnover/downs. Even given Lombardi's atrocious blocking schemes... both attempts were less than the 3.8 ypc Chargers averaged on the ground. Both opportunities had a high percentage conversion rate... if you just run the fucking ball!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/redzone-rushing.htm

[Boltnut]

Don't tell me you are going to run the ball 4 times !

Out of a spread formation (where teams have to defend redzone monsters like MW or KA by taking guys out-of-the-box)...?
With the league's leading TD producer over the last 2 years... with a 75% TD conversion rate (per touch) inside the 5-yard line...?

This isn't a real question, right...?

Hell, if you need some razzle-dazzle in your life (because you like that more than winning)... throw DD in there and send him in pre-snap motion across the formation.
Put Parham in the other slot if you really want to increase the "pass look" and increase the surface area across the LOS... creating 2 or 3 more running lanes...
Do what ever you'd like to scare the shit out of a defense or make them think you're going to pass.
But, run the Gawd-Damn ball... 4 times if you need to!!

Listen, I know how much people enjoy scoring FG's rather than TD's around this place... I get it, FG kickers are sexy! LOL!
The possibilities are endless! People will have to get rid of "Dummy-ball" mind-sets... it may take 5-6 games of "Kellen-Ball" to open eyes around here.

[blueman]

Remember that wicked processing and pass in the redzone in 2021 at Cincinnati? I think we see a lot more of that.
Redzone O will be greatly improved under Moore, I'm not worried about Herbert's ability there but I understand where your feeling is coming from.

No more hurry up and snap and try to score cuz I’m afraid we might not get another chance, or some shit.