Thoughts On Cutting Keenan Allen?

[DerwinBosa]

You are not framing the argument in a manner that is most useful.

TT/Staley MUST have a philosophical discussion about roster building and about culture.

Are we better served with elite, expensive bookends at EDGE (and WR for that matter), or are we better off having talent across the board, with weaknesses that are few or none ?

This draft is very deep at EDGE and DB, the positions that Derwin and Bosa play.

This off season we have an opportunity to upgrade at the vital positions of RB and TE.

Sure, Joey can train and have a monster 2023 season. Alternatively, Kelce was able to get separation from the supremely athletic Derwin at crucial junctures.

There is a whole lot to get just right. After a long season, the Super Bowl was a three point game.

Kelce gets separation against everybody. Were you paying attention at all during yesterday's game or at any point during the postseason? And do you really think replacing Derwin James with a rookie is going to change that?

You also seem so certain that a rookie pass-rusher drafted by the Chargers in the twenties is going to be Micah Parsons or Von Miller. Uh, yeah, not very likely.

I believe the team would be better off keeping Derwin and Bosa and drafting Bijan Robinson in the first round.After investing first-round picks on Slater and Zion the last two years, along with seemingly finding a late-round gem in Salyer, it's time to put a dynamic running back who is capable of gaining 1,200 to 1,500 yards on the ground behind them. The only seasons we've had a good running game to complement the quarterback (Rivers) since LaDainian Tomlinson left were in 2013 and 2018, the only years we made the playoffs since 2009. Herbert hasn't had that since entering the NFL.

If you want to draft an edge rusher, that's great, but have him rotate in behind Bosa and Mack. You really think this team will go anywhere with a 32-year-old Mack, Chris Rumph, and a rookie?

[Bolt4Knob]

There needs to be a lot of improvement from within for the Chargers to do better. The thing that separates a lot of teams and the Chargers is other teams do a better job of getting closer to the maximum amount out of each player.

As far as Allen goes ... how does it make sense to take the most consistent ( or at least the 2nd most consistent) offensive weapon away from our QB if the team/offense is built around the QB? Mike Williams is a good WR#2, but you can't build an offense around him and expect him to get 100 catches. He is hurt too much,if for no other reason.

We won't get anything for Bosa or Allen anyway. There is no trade value for guys getting paid that much. Chubb got the Donks a bunch in trade value, but he was still on his rookie deal. And if we are going to get rid of Bosa, we might as well get rid of Mack as well. 1 edge rusher is pretty much useless because just like Bosa and Mack have seen the last 2 years, they will draw all the attention and be chipped and doubled to death. You have to have the pair of edge guys, and we don't. Sometimes you can get lucky and draft a guy, but it is only recently that rookie pass rushers are coming out of college with enough polish to be productive out of the gate. Pass rushers hit their prime about the end of their rookie deal.

Cutting Allen would just leave a huge gap in our O. Who would Herbert throw to? Everett had a career year, but even then he was only as good as Jared Cook was, and Cook had a couple of very good games before he hit the over-30 wall/end-of-career wall. Sure, Carter, Guyton, and Palmer are all decent 3rd WR, but none of them is a clear #1 or #2 WR at this point. They could be solid starters in an offense that runs the ball more and throws a lot less, but you can't throw them into an offense that throws 40-50 times a game and think we are going to be a very good offense. We need some more/better offensive weapons, but unless there is some reason to think Allen is at the end of the road, it is a little early to get rid of him. We might not re-sign him to an extension or another deal, but if we want to be competitive we need him.

The other thing that people seem to be forgetting is that we don't have to cut anyone to get under the cap. According to Over The Cap (https://overthecap.com/restructure), we can give ourselves around $36.5 million in cap space through simple restructuring. That is above and beyond the $23.6 million we are in the hole now. That does not include any cuts or extensions. We can clear even more if there is more complicated restructuring. In short, while there is a little to worry about, it is not a huge problem. Not so much we get rid of our #1 WR without a replacement in hand.

The big response is that restructuring is not something the Chargers typically do!!!! It is not. But the Chargers typically don't go on big-money FA spending sprees either. If you decide to go on the spending spree, the playing with funny money thing was already the only response to make. The decision was made last year, it is not a decision that is yet to be made.

So how much money are you willing to push onto the future cap? You mention what they can do with restructuring contracts. So you want to push $40m of cap onto the future. Fine As its going to take about 40m dollars to operate the 2023 season. Need 20m to get back to good and 20m for the season

The Chargers are 47m under the cap in 2024 as of today/ But that is for like 28 players. So when you add in the 2023 draft class; the 2024 draft class and get to the 53 man roster, that number drops to around 20m or so. So, the team is $20m under the cap but that is for the minimum level players and two draft classes. Thats it. So if you add in Pipkins and Tranquil and maybe a couple other free agents. ,the number gets even lower.

But, you just pushed 40m of cap space onto the future years. So now really, instead of starting at 47m under the cap - you are now $7m under the cap and with all that is added, you are again, playing the cap game. Or you have extended players, added void years so maybe some is pushed onto 2025 or 2026. But its still there

So when I think about moving on from Keenan Allen - its more than just one year - its a longer term view. If the Chargers move on from Keenan Allen - its 40m of cap space over two years. The Chargers can do a lot with 40m of cap space

The Chargers went for it - it didn't work. They can do one of two things. I think the smarter longer term approach is to be conservative this offseason - realize who teh STAR of the team is (and sorry, its not 13) and build for the next 4-5 years and not 2023.

My offseason plan starts with two things
1) trading Bosa
2) Allen takes a pay cut, is traded or released.

Yes the Chargers might take a step back without Allen. Or they might also get younger and faster at WR and improve the position. And though Keenan Allen is the number 1 WR on the Chargers - he is not a #1 WR in the NFL anymore. I have watched enough of the playoffs to know that. So he is better than Michael Bandy and Jason Moore - thats not going to cut it.

[La Costa Boy]

I will agree that Kelce gets open on EVERYbody eventually. Say you have 60 defensive plays in a game versus KC. You hold Kelce as a non factor in 90% of them (rushes included) That still gives him 6 catch opportunities in a game even with 90% of the plays in your favor. The dude is elite and that's that. I see his biggest contribution yesterday was drawing doubles that KC exploited to find JuJu singled up or wide freaking open..

[Boltx]

So how much money are you willing to push onto the future cap? You mention what they can do with restructuring contracts. So you want to push $40m of cap onto the future. Fine As its going to take about 40m dollars to operate the 2023 season. Need 20m to get back to good and 20m for the season

The Chargers are 47m under the cap in 2024 as of today/ But that is for like 28 players. So when you add in the 2023 draft class; the 2024 draft class and get to the 53 man roster, that number drops to around 20m or so. So, the team is $20m under the cap but that is for the minimum level players and two draft classes. Thats it. So if you add in Pipkins and Tranquil and maybe a couple other free agents. ,the number gets even lower.

But, you just pushed 40m of cap space onto the future years. So now really, instead of starting at 47m under the cap - you are now $7m under the cap and with all that is added, you are again, playing the cap game. Or you have extended players, added void years so maybe some is pushed onto 2025 or 2026. But its still there

So when I think about moving on from Keenan Allen - its more than just one year - its a longer term view. If the Chargers move on from Keenan Allen - its 40m of cap space over two years. The Chargers can do a lot with 40m of cap space

The Chargers went for it - it didn't work. They can do one of two things. I think the smarter longer term approach is to be conservative this offseason - realize who teh STAR of the team is (and sorry, its not 13) and build for the next 4-5 years and not 2023.

My offseason plan starts with two things
1) trading Bosa
2) Allen takes a pay cut, is traded or released.

Yes the Chargers might take a step back without Allen. Or they might also get younger and faster at WR and improve the position. And though Keenan Allen is the number 1 WR on the Chargers - he is not a #1 WR in the NFL anymore. I have watched enough of the playoffs to know that. So he is better than Michael Bandy and Jason Moore - thats not going to cut it.

This is the correct, reasonable approach IMO.

It will absolutely sting to lose KA, but we are not competing for the next two years anyway as we navigate cap hell and the bad contracts TT has saddled us with.

We also have to come to grips that Herbert has yet to show he is THE guy, and pushing more money to the future only hinders the possibility of being able to pull a HARD reset after 2024 should Herbert fizzle out and Staley/TT are finally gone. The x factor in all this is what happens with Dean vs Dea. Would be nice for the incoming front office (and new owner????) to have some $$ to work with after 2024.

This is where having a good, creative GM could help navigate some of these rough seas. Or at least draft well.

[Bolt4Knob]

This is the correct, reasonable approach IMO.

It will absolutely sting to lose KA, but we are not competing for the next two years anyway as we navigate cap hell and the bad contracts TT has saddled us with.

We also have to come to grips that Herbert has yet to show he is THE guy, and pushing more money to the future only hinders the possibility of being able to pull a HARD reset after 2024 should Herbert fizzle out and Staley/TT are finally gone. The x factor in all this is what happens with Dean vs Dea. Would be nice for the incoming front office (and new owner????) to have some $$ to work with after 2024.

This is where having a good, creative GM could help navigate some of these rough seas. Or at least draft well.

Personally - I do think Herbert can be "the guy" - but he needs better coaching, better running game and a WR that can get downfield and make explosive plays, would help

And the reason the team is in this cap situation is because Telesco and John Boy are not good in the front office

Back to KA - sure its going to sting to lose KA> But I would rather the team understand they have the QB and build for 3-5 years than hope to catch lightning in a bottle as they push a bunch of cap down to what end. A one year push

If Allen wants to takea pay cut - would prefer he is back.

[Boltx]

Personally - I do think Herbert can be "the guy" - but he needs better coaching, better running game and a WR that can get downfield and make explosive plays, would help

Starting to sound like all the excuses Oregon fans made for him in college..."but he needs xyz"...and he's on his like 7th OC including college? Coach killer??? Just kidding about that last part, sorta....

I agree with your premise, re: KA. Need to stop thinking about this in one year vacuums. But if you're going to make some hard decisions and take your lumps the next two years are as good as any as they won't be in contention and allows us to shed bad contracts as well as our lame duck HC/GM. One step back to hopefully take 2-3 steps forward in a couple years.

[Bolt4Knob]

Starting to sound like all the excuses Oregon fans made for him in college..."but he needs xyz"...and he's on his like 7th OC including college? Coach killer??? Just kidding about that last part, sorta....

I agree with your premise, re: KA. Need to stop thinking about this in one year vacuums. But if you're going to make some hard decisions and take your lumps the next two years are as good as any as they won't be in contention and allows us to shed bad contracts as well as our lame duck HC/GM. One step back to hopefully take 2-3 steps forward in a couple years.

I just read this article about the Saints. Read something similar last year about the Saints and if they keep kicking the can on players like Jordan, Davis, Hill - we will read it again next year. This is why the Chargers need to be careful. Moving money around for Bosa - thats fine. He is 27 or 28. Thats one player. But when I read for Linsley and Jackson and Mack and Bosa and Allen - I think thats just going to get you in trouble.

The Saints are more than $55M over the 2023 salary cap. Here's how they free up $80M (espn.com)

[SK21209]

Keep Keenan, restructure contracts and push money into the future. The thing is, we are going to have to rebuild the supporting cast around Herbert in the next couple of years anyway. Slater is probably the only guy that is still going to be playing with 30 year old Justin Herbert. I don't see the point of taking the step back now to build for three years from now when we're already going to have to do that anyway regardless of what we do this offseason.

Keep Allen/Bosa/Pipkins and try to accumulate as much talent as possible for 2023 and 2024. If it doesn't work out, then you start to flip the supporting cast. We have a 10-15 year runway with Herbert and there will be multiple iterations of this team with him. I'm fine with going all in on the immediate future and suffering through some leaner rosters in 3-4 years when we have apex Herbert to cover up a lot of holes.

[Boltx]

Keep Keenan, restructure contracts and push money into the future. The thing is, we are going to have to rebuild the supporting cast around Herbert in the next couple of years anyway. Slater is probably the only guy that is still going to be playing with 30 year old Justin Herbert. I don't see the point of taking the step back now to build for three years from now when we're already going to have to do that anyway regardless of what we do this offseason.

Keep Allen/Bosa/Pipkins and try to accumulate as much talent as possible for 2023 and 2024. If it doesn't work out, then you start to flip the supporting cast. We have a 10-15 year runway with Herbert and there will be multiple iterations of this team with him. I'm fine with going all in on the immediate future and suffering through some leaner rosters in 3-4 years when we have apex Herbert to cover up a lot of holes.

I'm not sure, seems like a risky cap strategy. And if Herbert ever achieved "apex" status, wouldn't it make more sense to have the means available at that time to add talent? Being a bit conservative now also allows us to see what Denver does the next 1-2 years and can play into our team building strategy.

Problem is, TT and Staley are backed into a corner and are trying to save their jobs - will they make the smart decisions?

[Boltjolt]

So how much money are you willing to push onto the future cap? You mention what they can do with restructuring contracts. So you want to push $40m of cap onto the future. Fine As its going to take about 40m dollars to operate the 2023 season. Need 20m to get back to good and 20m for the season

The Chargers are 47m under the cap in 2024 as of today/ But that is for like 28 players. So when you add in the 2023 draft class; the 2024 draft class and get to the 53 man roster, that number drops to around 20m or so. So, the team is $20m under the cap but that is for the minimum level players and two draft classes. Thats it. So if you add in Pipkins and Tranquil and maybe a couple other free agents. ,the number gets even lower.

But, you just pushed 40m of cap space onto the future years. So now really, instead of starting at 47m under the cap - you are now $7m under the cap and with all that is added, you are again, playing the cap game. Or you have extended players, added void years so maybe some is pushed onto 2025 or 2026. But its still there

So when I think about moving on from Keenan Allen - its more than just one year - its a longer term view. If the Chargers move on from Keenan Allen - its 40m of cap space over two years. The Chargers can do a lot with 40m of cap space

The Chargers went for it - it didn't work. They can do one of two things. I think the smarter longer term approach is to be conservative this offseason - realize who teh STAR of the team is (and sorry, its not 13) and build for the next 4-5 years and not 2023.

My offseason plan starts with two things
1) trading Bosa
2) Allen takes a pay cut, is traded or released.

Yes the Chargers might take a step back without Allen. Or they might also get younger and faster at WR and improve the position. And though Keenan Allen is the number 1 WR on the Chargers - he is not a #1 WR in the NFL anymore. I have watched enough of the playoffs to know that. So he is better than Michael Bandy and Jason Moore - thats not going to cut it.

He is also better than any of the Chiefs WRs, which means he would be #1.
Can you imagine us cutting him and he goes there? He and Kelce would tear it up.

Guyton is better than Moore and Bandy. Need to cut those and move on.

[Lefty2SLO]

Chris Jones fired up the Chefs...who is our Chris Jones?

Still to be drafted . . . .

[Bolt4Knob]

He is also better than any of the Chiefs WRs, which means he would be #1.
Can you imagine us cutting him and he goes there? He and Kelce would tear it up.

Guyton is better than Moore and Bandy. Need to cut those and move on.

I just see a team that lost a lead in a playoff game 27 zip
A defense that couldn't get off the field on third down
An offense that was terrible in the second halves of games, very few explosive plays. The Chargers offense was painful to watch this year
I look at the roster - see one name that stands out. Allen can take a pay cut - thats fine. If he is back, he is back
But the Chargers NEED more explosive play makers on the offensive side of the ball

They need a fast guy that can stretch the defense and get deep
They need a guy like AJ Brown who is physical with the ball after the call.